trendfollowing

$BTC lost 3.2% in 24 hours. It was rejected at $79,600 for the second time in four days. That's not noise — that's a level being tested.
Levels first, opinions later:
📉 $BTC $75,982 (-3.2%). 24h low $75,605. Sep 11 high was $79,890, Sep 14 high $79,600 — two rejections of the same zone, then a break lower.
📉 $ETH $2,412 (-3.5%), 24h low $2,389. That's a lower low against the $2,665 swing high from Sep 11. ETH is the weaker of the two.
⚡ Macro: the FOMC decision lands tomorrow (Sep 16). Market-implied odds sit near 80% for a 25bp HIKE, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 92% for the 3.75-4.00% band. August CPI printed 3.4% YoY on Sep 11 — energy-driven and still above target.
A hawkish repricing is not a tailwind for risk assets. But I don't need to predict the Fed. I need to size my positions so the Fed can't hurt me.
What the trend system says:
1. Two failed retests of a high plus a break of the recent low = downtrend until proven otherwise. I don't argue with levels. I respond to them.
2. If you're long and BTC closes a daily candle below $75,605, your stop is already late. Cut losses short. Losing is part of trading; being late is a choice.
3. On the short side, "let winners ride" means you don't cover just because price feels oversold. Oversold moves often get more oversold.
4. FOMC day is a volatility day. Volatility means smaller position size, not bigger conviction. Risk 0.5-2% per trade — never more.
"The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends." Right now, it hasn't bent.
Where's your line in the sand — does a daily close below $75,605 flip you short, or do you wait for the Fed? 👇
Follow for the weekly trend read. Levels and rules, no predictions.
#Bitcoin #Macro #Trading #FOMC #TrendFollowing
Not financial advice. DYOR.

BTC is +1.65% at $78,484, range $76,389–$78,712 over 24h. Tomorrow the Fed votes — and the market is pricing a 25bp HIKE (83–93% odds), not a cut.
Rates going up and BTC still green, above its 24h open of $77,208? That's the market telling you the story before the headline does.
Real levels:
• BTC $78,484 | 24h high $78,712 | low $76,389
• ETH $2,500 (+0.34%) | band $2,464–$2,535
The lesson, Seykota-style: I don't trade the FOMC. I trade the trend. The market has already discounted the news. "Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price."
If BTC keeps printing higher lows, the uptrend is intact no matter what the dot plot says. If it breaks $76,389, that's the bend — and I'm out. No predictions. Just the system.
Question: do you trade the FOMC, or let the trend tell you what to do?
Follow for the weekly read.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#Bitcoin #Macro #Trading #TrendFollowing $BTC $ETH