microstrategy

マイケル・セイラーが主張するには、戦略（旧マイクロストラテジー）はビットコインが$8,000に下落するまで清算リスクを抱えないとされており、これは会社の独自の負債構造と重要なキャッシュバッファに基づいています。2026年2月現在、同社はビットコインの保有資産が主な負債の即時担保として担保にされていないため、極端なボラティリティに耐えることができると主張しています。
$8,000のしきい値はどのように計算されるか
$8,000の数字は、戦略の総純負債がビットコインの保有資産の市場価値にほぼ等しくなる「ストレステスト」レベルを表しています。

MicroStrategy has built its identity around one bold move: accumulating massive amounts of Bitcoin. Under the leadership of Michael Saylor, the company transformed from a traditional software firm into what many now call a corporate Bitcoin holding vehicle.

But with Bitcoin recently trading below MicroStrategy’s average purchase price, the company’s BTC position is currently **underwater** 📉.

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## 🧾 What “Underwater” Actually Means

Being underwater simply means the current market price of Bitcoin is **below the company’s average cost basis**.

MicroStrategy holds hundreds of thousands of BTC, acquired over several years at varying prices. Its average purchase price sits above current market levels, meaning the firm is sitting on **unrealized losses** — on paper, not realized through selling.

Important distinction:
💡 These are accounting losses, not forced liquidations.
The company has not sold its core holdings.

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## 📊 Why This Matters

MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR) moves almost like a **leveraged Bitcoin ETF**. When BTC rises, MSTR often outperforms. When BTC falls, the stock can drop harder.

Key dynamics to understand:

### 1️⃣ Volatility Multiplier

MSTR amplifies Bitcoin’s moves. That makes it attractive in bull cycles but painful in drawdowns.

### 2️⃣ Capital Strategy

The company has used convertible notes and equity offerings to finance Bitcoin purchases. That strategy works beautifully in strong markets but creates pressure when sentiment cools.

### 3️⃣ Accounting Swings

Bitcoin’s price fluctuations now directly impact earnings reports due to mark-to-market accounting rules. That increases headline volatility.

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## 🔎 The Bigger Picture

Despite being underwater, MicroStrategy has **continued accumulating Bitcoin** during dips. That signals conviction rather than retreat.

From a macro perspective:

* Bitcoin remains cyclical.
* Institutional adoption continues developing.
* Supply dynamics (including halvings) historically tighten over time.

MicroStrategy is essentially making a long-duration macro bet that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory outweighs short-term drawdowns.

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## 🚀 Potential Going Forward

If Bitcoin reclaims levels above MicroStrategy’s average cost basis:

* Unrealized losses flip to gains.
* Balance sheet optics improve.
* Stock momentum could accelerate sharply.

If Bitcoin weakens further:

* Paper losses expand.
* Stock volatility increases.
* Sentiment pressure builds.

This is a **high-conviction, high-volatility strategy**.

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## 🧠 My Take as a Trader

This isn’t reckless — it’s aggressive positioning.

MicroStrategy is no longer just a software company. It’s effectively a Bitcoin proxy with corporate structure wrapped around it.

As a trader, I see it this way:

* 📌 In bull markets → explosive upside.
* 📌 In sideways markets → choppy.
* 📌 In bear phases → amplified downside risk.

Right now, the underwater narrative sounds dramatic, but in crypto cycles, this is normal volatility. The key question isn’t whether it’s underwater today — it’s whether Bitcoin’s long-term thesis holds.

For disciplined traders, this is a volatility instrument. For long-term believers, it’s a conviction play.

Either way, risk management is not optional. 🔐📊

$BTC
#MicroStrategy