For-Exx Kripto 1

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — September 15, 2026 🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY CLARITY Act cloture vote is today at 14:15 ET (21:15 TR Time); 60 votes are required. The White House reached an ethics agreement, but disputes remain over Trump’s crypto interests, DeFi and stablecoin yields. CME FedWatch puts Sep. 16 hike odds at 86.2%. Oil approaches 110 $ amid Middle East disruptions. ━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC trades near 76,870 $, ranging from 76,142-79,530 $. It remains above EMA20 (77,097), EMA50 (73,382) and EMA200 (72,287), while MACD at -717 signals weakening momentum. 76,780 $ is support; 78,392 $ is resistance. A close above it could open 80,000 $. A hike could pressure BTC toward 76,000 $, while a surprise hold could open 80,000 $+. ETF outflows limit momentum, while whale buying supports the market. ━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS $ETH trades near 2,500 $, XRP near 1.39 $. Markets remain cautious ahead of CLARITY and FOMC. Rising hike odds pressure crypto. ━━ 📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS The cloture vote only opens debate; the bill still needs amendments and a final vote. A narrow 57-59 loss could leave room for 2027 passage, while a wider defeat could cause a longer delay. Galaxy Research puts 2026 passage odds near 10%. SEC and CFTC processes can continue without CLARITY, but agency rules offer less durable protection. ━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS Connex (CONX) September 15, 2026 ~13.21M $ (1.41% of circulating supply) — 1.32M tokens Selling pressure: 🟡 Arbitrum (ARB) September 16, 2026 ~8.94M $ (0.93% of circulating supply) — 92.63M tokens Recipients: Team & Advisors + Investors Selling pressure: 🟡 Note: Largest monthly unlock by value; coincides with FOMC. ━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS CLARITY and tomorrow’s FOMC create the year’s key 48-hour risk window. CLARITY remains uncertain despite the ethics compromise. The 86% priced-in hike makes Warsh’s tone more important than the decision. BTC’s 76,780 $ support and 78,392 $ resistance are key. ARB unlocks alongside FOMC.

# Critical Day for the CLARITY Act: Can the U.S. Senate Clear the 60-Vote Threshold? The Senate faces a key vote today, but this does not mean final passage. Senators will hold a procedural cloture vote on the **CLARITY Act**. **60 votes** are required to formally begin debate. If reached, the process continues with amendments and a final vote. If not, the bill’s 2026 prospects weaken. ## RESHAPED WITH 126 CHANGES The latest Republican draft includes **126 major changes** reflecting Democratic demands, including stronger ethics and conflict-of-interest rules. ## STABLECOIN YIELDS CLASH WITH BANKS Banks oppose parts of the stablecoin-yield framework, arguing that yield-bearing stablecoins could pull deposits from traditional banks and pressure lending capacity. ## AT LEAST 7 DEMOCRATS NEEDED Republicans hold **53 seats**, while Democrats and aligned independents hold 47. Even with full Republican support, at least **7 Democrats or aligned independents** are needed. Any Republican defection would raise that number. ## ODDS OF PASSAGE HAVE FALLEN Prediction-market odds for 2026 passage fell from about **82%** in February to around **16%** in September amid prolonged negotiations and the tightening calendar ahead of midterms. ## BITCOIN AND CRYPTO ARE WATCHING The CLARITY Act seeks clearer digital-asset oversight and a stronger **CFTC role** in spot markets. Passing the 60-vote threshold would not mean immediate enactment, but it could signal meaningful progress toward U.S. crypto regulatory clarity. Failure would sharply reduce the bill’s chances of advancing this Congress. ## A NEW THRESHOLD FOR CRYPTO Despite 126 changes, agreement remains incomplete. Today’s vote will determine whether the CLARITY Act can formally enter the Senate debate stage. If it gets 60 votes, the fight moves forward. If not, comprehensive U.S. crypto market-structure legislation could face a much longer delay. The key number today: **60 VOTES.** $BTC

# As Rates Rise, Stablecoins and Tokenized Treasuries Become Crypto’s Winners As U.S. Treasury yields rise, pressure increases on Bitcoin and other non-yielding assets, while the stablecoin economy benefits differently. Stablecoin issuers hold much of their reserves in U.S. Treasuries and repo, generating income while rates remain high. ## Tether’s 1.5B $ Interest-Backed Profit Tether reported about **1.5B $ in net operating profit** in Q2,with much of it from Treasuries and repo. **While Bitcoin pays no interest, some of crypto’s largest dollar-based instruments earn income from high rates.** ## Circle’s USDC Supply Reaches 73.3B $ Circle reported **701M $ in revenue and reserve income**,while USDC supply reached **73.3B $**. Stablecoin growth depends on both interest income and the amount of tokens in circulation. ## Tokenized U.S. Treasuries Surge The tokenized U.S. Treasury market grew from about **300M $** in 2023 to more than **9B $** by the end of 2025 and reached about **15B $** in August. This shows stronger demand for blockchain-based dollar yield. ## Bitcoin Faces a Different Picture Higher Treasury yields can reduce Bitcoin’s relative appeal: **higher discount rates → tighter financial conditions → lower risk appetite → pressure on Bitcoin and high-beta crypto** Thus, high rates create a mixed crypto picture: **negative for Bitcoin, positive for stablecoin issuers and supportive for tokenization.** ## “Yield” Could Become Crypto’s Next Growth Area Stablecoins, tokenized Treasuries and on-chain money-market products are bringing yield-generating traditional assets onto blockchain infrastructure. The key question may be: **How quickly will trillions of dollars in traditional yield-generating assets be tokenized on blockchain?** If this accelerates, the high-rate era could mark not only a liquidity squeeze for crypto, but the start of a new growth cycle for **stablecoins,tokenization and blockchain-based financial infrastructure.** $BTC

# Critical Day for the CLARITY Act: Crypto Bill’s Fate in the U.S. Senate The U.S. Senate faces a key procedural vote Tuesday on the CLARITY Act, which aims to create a federal crypto framework. Despite Republican changes, it remains unclear whether it has the 60 votes needed. ## First Test Requires 60 Votes The Senate will vote to open debate, requiring 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least 7 Democrats or independents are needed. ## Trump’s Crypto Interests at the Center Trump family ties to World Liberty Financial, USD1 and TRUMP have fueled Democratic conflict-of-interest concerns. The draft adds ethics rules for public officials and spouses and gives state attorneys general an enforcement role. ## Debate Over Developer Protection Reduced protections for blockchain developers without control over users or funds have raised DeFi concerns. ## Why Does the CLARITY Act Matter? The bill seeks clearer SEC-CFTC jurisdiction and a federal digital-asset market structure. ## Why Is Passage This Year Difficult? After 60 votes, Senate debate and final passage must follow, then the House must approve the text. The calendar is tightening ahead of midterms. ## Key Point for Markets **If 60 votes are secured:** Markets could see a more predictable crypto regulatory era. **If 60 votes are not secured:** The bill would suffer a major setback, though SEC and CFTC work could continue. ## Another Critical Week for Markets The vote comes one day before the Fed decision, forcing crypto to price both risks. **The most positive scenario is CLARITY advancing while the Fed delivers a softer-than-expected message.** ## Conclusion The CLARITY Act is now a test of the U.S. approach to digital assets. **Failing to reach 60 votes would sharply weaken the bill’s chances this Congress.** **Will the U.S. finally establish clear crypto rules, or will the sector remain in regulatory uncertainty?** $BTC $ETH

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — September 14, 2026 🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY Trump said the U.S. should have the world’s lowest rates regardless of inflation or economic data. CME FedWatch puts Sep. 16 hike odds at 86.2% — potentially the first hike in three years. CLARITY Act passage odds are ~25%; seven Democrats oppose the draft. Oil climbed toward 110 $ amid worsening Middle East shipping disruptions. Bitcoin Suisse plans to relocate up to 60 Zug jobs abroad. ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC rose 2.16% in 24h to 79,002 $, recovering from 76,806 $. It remains above EMA20 (77,097), EMA50 (73,382) and EMA200 (72,287), but MACD is negative at -717.91. 75,426 $ is key support; 82,814 $ is major resistance. BTC gained despite AI-driven tech selling and remains ~23% higher monthly. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH rose ~1.4% to 2,509-2,514 $. XRP gained 3.59% to 1.37 $, while Solana held near 101 $. Crypto remains relatively insulated from AI-driven risk-off as macro and politics dominate. ━━━ 📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS Trump’s rate-cut pressure conflicts with market pricing as strong jobs data and hot core CPI pushed hike odds to 86%. A hike could intensify Trump’s Fed attacks; a surprise hold could damage Fed credibility. The CLARITY cloture vote is a procedural 60-vote test, not final passage. SEC/CFTC rulemaking would continue if it fails. ━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS Connex (CONX) September 15, 2026 ~13.21M $ (1.41% of circulating supply) — 1.32M tokens Selling pressure: 🟡 Arbitrum ( $ARB ) September 16, 2026 ~8.94M $ (0.93% of circulating supply) — 92.63M tokens Recipients: Team & Advisors + Investors Selling pressure: 🟡 Note: Largest monthly unlock by value; coincides with FOMC. ━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS Next: CLARITY cloture Sep. 15, FOMC Sep. 16. Markets price an 86% hike probability. A priced-in hike could pressure BTC; a surprise hold could trigger a relief rally. Oil near 110 $ adds inflation risk. BTC’s 79,000 $ resistance and 75,426 $ support are key.

Traders’ expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates on Wednesday **surged above 92% today.** Markets continue to pressure the Fed to raise interest rates. $BTC $ETH

**Sep. 14-18, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TR Time)** 🎯 **Main Theme** The year’s busiest central-bank week: FOMC, BoE and BoJ decisions come back-to-back. August core CPI rose 0.3% MoM versus 0.2% expected, sending FOMC hike odds from 70% to 90%. With the Fed avoiding forward guidance, every data point carries more weight. The BoE faces hike risk after a 6-3 hold and 2.9% inflation. The BoJ remains TBA after divided holds. Synchronized tightening could lift global rates. --- 📅 **Economic Calendar** **Wednesday – Sep. 16** 🇺🇸 **21:00 — FOMC Rate Decision + SEP + Dot Plot** **21:30 — Fed Chair Warsh Press Conference** The week’s centerpiece. Markets price a 90% hike probability. The dot plot and Warsh’s guidance are critical. 🇺🇸 **15:30 — Advance Retail Sales, August 2026** Chicago Fed sees ex-auto sales up 0.5% versus -0.3% in July. **Thursday – Sep. 17** 🇬🇧 **15:00 — BoE Rate Decision + MPC Vote** July’s 3.75% rate was held by 6-3. Inflation has risen to 2.9%. Two more votes shifting toward a hike could change the outlook. 🇺🇸 **15:30 — Weekly Jobless Claims** **Friday – Sep. 18** 🇯🇵 **Morning — BoJ Rate Decision (~05:30-06:30)** **~09:30 — Governor Ueda Press Conference** The Sep. 17-18 meeting remains TBA after divided holds. --- ⚡ **Crypto & Market Risks** **FOMC:** A hike is 90% priced, so volatility will center on the dot plot. More hikes could strengthen the dollar and accelerate crypto deleveraging. A one-and-done hike with wait-and-see guidance could trigger a relief rally. **BoE:** A surprise hike would reinforce synchronized tightening and pressure risk assets. Hold + hawkish voting could keep November hike expectations alive. **BoJ:** A hawkish surprise could strengthen the yen and unwind carry trades, creating sharp downside wicks in BTC/ETH. A cautious hold could preserve carry flows. **All Three:** If all lean hawkish, global dollar/rate conditions could tighten cumulatively, creating broader pressure on crypto. $BTC $ETH

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — September 11, 2026 🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY August CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, matching forecasts. Gasoline rose 3.9%; housing rose 0.3%. Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, hotter than expected, while annual core CPI held at 2.4%. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.97%. CME FedWatch puts Sep. 16 hike odds at 62-69%. BTC fell to a two-week low. ETH ETFs saw 29M $ in outflows. Gold fell below its 200-day average. ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC opened at 76,536 $, down 2.2% from yesterday and ~6% weekly. It fell to 76,500 $ after CPI, then recovered to 77,500-78,000 $ as the data proved broadly in line with expectations. Holding above 76,800 $ could open 80,000-83,000 $; below it risks 73,000 $. The decline tests whether ETF strength is pausing or reversing. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS $ETH traded at 2,468-2,500 $, calmer than BTC. Spot ETH ETFs saw 29M $ in outflows. Solana held near 100 $, down 2.5%; 98.79 $ is key support, with 90 $ at risk below it. XRP fell to 1.36 $. Gold also broke below its 200-day average. ━━━ 📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS Hot core CPI strengthens the case for a Sep. 16 hike. The Fed has entered its four-day blackout period, leaving markets without fresh guidance. The Sep. 15 CLARITY Act cloture vote remains another key event, with the party dispute unresolved. ━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS Cheelee (CHEEL) September 13, 2026 ~2.24M $ (0.79% of circulating supply) — 6.42M tokens Selling pressure: 🟢 Unitas Labs (UP) September 12, 2026 ~11.16M $ (18.7% of market cap) Selling pressure: 🔴 Note: Very high relative to market cap; one of the month’s most dilutive single unlocks. ━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS Markets are focused on the Sep. 16 FOMC. CME FedWatch prices 62-69% hike odds, while the blackout prevents new guidance. The Sep. 15 CLARITY Act vote is also key. BTC’s 76,800 $ level is critical: holding it could allow 80,000-83,000 $, while losing it risks 73,000 $. UP and CHEEL unlocks are relatively small amid major macro events.

# Dilema Fed pada 16 September: Naik atau Tahan? Setelah CPI Agustus, pasar memperkirakan peluang 90% untuk kenaikan 25-bp pada FOMC 16 Sep. Namun hasilnya tetap tidak pasti, dengan Ketua Fed Kevin Warsh terjepit antara tekanan politik dan kredibilitas. **SKENARIO 1 — Warsh Menahan Suku Bunga** Penahanan akan mengejutkan pasar. **Obligasi:** Imbal hasil jangka pendek bisa turun, tetapi imbal hasil jangka panjang bisa melonjak jika pasar takut adanya intervensi politik dan inflasi yang tak terkendali. Imbal hasil obligasi 10-tahun bisa menembus di atas 5%. **Dolar:** DXY bisa jatuh tajam dan USD/JPY melorot di bawah 154. **Emas:** Pemenang. Tidak adanya kenaikan dan kekhawatiran tentang independensi Fed dapat memicu rebound dari 4.310 $. **Saham:** Pertumbuhan dan teknologi bisa langsung menguat, tetapi meningkatnya imbal hasil jangka panjang dapat membalikkan kenaikan tersebut. **Kripto:** Bitcoin dan altcoin bisa melonjak berkat kebijakan yang lebih mudah dan dolar yang melemah, dengan likuidasi jangka pendek yang memperbesar pergerakan. Jangka panjang, kredibilitas Fed yang rusak dapat membebani aset berisiko. **SKENARIO 2 — Warsh Menaikkan 25 Bps** Karena kenaikan sudah dipatok 90%, nada pidato akan lebih penting daripada keputusan. **Obligasi:** Panduan kenaikan berikutnya bisa mengangkat imbal hasil jangka pendek dan mendatar kan kurva. Pesan “sekali saja” dapat meringankan imbal hasil. **Dolar:** Kenaikan suku bunga dan panduan yang hawkish mendukung DXY dan USD/JPY di atas 154. **Emas:** Imbal hasil yang lebih tinggi bisa menguji 4.300 $, dengan 4.200 $ dalam kondisi berisiko. Risiko geopolitik dapat mendukung rebound. **Saham:** Teknologi dan pertumbuhan bisa menghadapi tekanan, meski pesan “kenaikan terakhir” dapat memicu pemulihan. **Kripto:** Suku bunga yang lebih tinggi, imbal hasil, dan dolar yang lebih kuat dapat memicu penjualan dan likuidasi lebih banyak. Karena kenaikannya sudah dipatok, rebound bisa terjadi. **Kesimpulan: Ini Soal Kepercayaan** Kenaikan menjaga kepercayaan pasar tetapi berisiko konflik dengan Trump. Penahanan mungkin memuaskan Trump tetapi bisa memicu kekhawatiran tekanan politik, sehingga mengangkat imbal hasil dan emas sambil menekan dolar. Terlepas dari pemaketan 90%, kejutan membuat 16 Sep menjadi kandidat untuk salah satu sesi paling volatil tahun ini. Fokus pada panduan Warsh. $BTC $ETH

# U.S. August CPI: Headline Calm, Core Hot — Rate Hike Odds Hit 90% The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released August CPI data. Headline figures matched expectations, but core inflation exceeded forecasts. **Key Figures** Headline CPI rose 3.4% YoY, matching expectations. Monthly CPI rose 0.4%, accelerating from July’s 0.1%. Core CPI rose 2.4% YoY, in line with expectations and down from 2.5%. Monthly core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, signaling renewed pressure. **Housing Cools, Services and Energy Heat Up** Owners’ equivalent rent and primary rent slowed to 0.2% from 0.3%. Supercore surged 0.511% MoM, its highest since January, while annual Supercore rose to 3.022% from 2.843%. Energy rose 2.1%,with gasoline up 3.9%,adding 0.140 points to headline CPI. **Rate-Hike Pricing: 68% to 90%** September hike odds were 68% before the report. Afterward,25-bp hike odds jumped to 82% and approached 90%. Markets are largely pricing rates at 3.75-4.00%. **The Waller Factor** Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would consider a hike if inflation came in hot. The core and Supercore readings strengthened the hawkish case. **What Could the Fed Do?** The leading scenario is a 25-bp hike. The alternative is a hold with a hawkish stance. **Market Impact** **Dollar:** Rising hike odds support the dollar. USD/JPY moved above 154. **Gold:** Higher yields and a stronger dollar pressure gold,though geopolitical risks support safe-haven demand. **Stocks:** Tightening could pressure rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks. **Crypto:** Higher rates, yields and a stronger dollar create a negative backdrop. Hot core and Supercore inflation pushes rate-cut expectations further away and could increase volatility and liquidations. **In Summary** August CPI was calm on the headline but hot in core and especially Supercore. Cooling housing was outweighed by services and energy pressure,pushing hike odds from 68% to 90%. All eyes are now on the September FOMC. $BTC

🔐 LAPORAN PASAR AKHIR HARI — 10 September 2026 🌐 BERITA UTAMA HARI INI PPI Agustus naik 0,4% MoM dan mencapai 5,4% YoY. Pembahasan CLARITY Act masih terbelah: Demokrat mencari aturan konflik kepentingan untuk perusahaan kripto yang terintegrasi secara vertikal; Republik menolak. CEO Coinbase Brian Armstrong mengatakan pasar kripto AS bergerak menuju kejelasan regulasi yang lebih besar terlepas dari hasil Senat. Ketegangan AS-Iran dan Brent mendekati 100 $ membebani selera risiko. Zcash ( $ZEC ) berkonsolidasi setelah puncak kemarin di 1.290 $ . ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC dibuka di 78.292 $, turun 0,2%, lalu jatuh ke 77.941-77.971 $. Harga harian masih berada di atas EMA20 (77.130), EMA50 (72.759), dan EMA200 (72.302), tetapi MACD -585,5. Harga per jam berada di bawah EMA20/50/200. Dukungan: 77.000-77.600 $. Resistensi: 80.000-82.000 $. Skenario dasar: konsolidasi 77.000-82.000 $ sebelum CPI; di bawah 77.000 $ dapat meningkatkan tekanan jual. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS Kripto turun 4,27% dalam 24 jam sementara dominasi BTC naik ke 58,57%, menunjukkan rotasi ke BTC. ETH; altcoin utama berkinerja lebih buruk. Zcash berhenti sejenak. ━━━ 📋 BERITA KRIPTO UTAMA PPI yang panas mendorong ekspektasi CPI. Pasar memperkirakan 0,4% MoM dan ~2,4% YoY CPI inti; kejutan yang panas dapat memperkuat penetapan harga kenaikan suku bunga menjelang FOMC 15-16 Sep. Ambang kontrol internal 20% CLARITY Act memisahkan “security” dari “digital commodity”; BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, dan 12 token utama dapat menjadi digital commodity di bawah pengawasan CFTC. ━━━ 🔓 PEMBUKAAN TOKEN Aptos (APT) 11 September 2026 ~7,09M $ (0,65% dari pasokan beredar) — 11,31M token Tekanan jual: 🟡 Cheelee (CHEEL) 13 September 2026 ~2,24M $ (0,79% dari pasokan beredar) — 6,42M token Tekanan jual: 🟢 ━━━ 🔭 PROSPEK & PERISTIWA MENDATANG CPI besok adalah peristiwa kunci. CPI yang panas dapat menekan BTC sebelum FOMC 15-16 Sep; CPI yang lebih dingin dapat memberikan kelegaan. CLARITY Act masih belum pasti; perumusan aturan SEC/CFTC terus berlanjut. BTC diperkirakan akan berkonsolidasi di 77.000-82.000 $; di bawah 77.000 $ dapat meningkatkan tekanan jual.

# Ethereum Classic (ETC): From Ethereum’s Fork to a 90%+ Value Loss ## What Is Ethereum Classic? ETC emerged in 2016 after The DAO was hacked,putting about 3.6 million ETH under the attacker’s control. Most backed a hard fork to reverse the attack and recover the funds. Those opposing changes to blockchain history stayed on the old chain,which became **Ethereum Classic**. The new chain continued as Ethereum. ## The “Code Is Law” Philosophy ETC was built around “Code Is Law”: blockchain transactions should remain immutable. The DAO attack became a philosophical debate over blockchain principles. ## How Did ETC’s Price Explode? During the 2021 bull market, ETC rose from about 5 $ to above 170 $ in May—a gain of more than **3,000%**. Its market cap reached billions of dollars. ## Ethereum’s Merge Put ETC Back in the Spotlight Ethereum’s 2022 shift to Proof-of-Stake ended Ethereum mining and raised expectations that miners would move to alternative PoW networks. ETC rallied on these expectations, but lasting growth did not materialize. ## Major Security Problems ETC suffered a major 51% attack in 2019 and multiple attacks in 2020. ## Why Did ETC Fall Behind Ethereum? Ethereum grew into a massive ecosystem spanning DeFi, NFTs,stablecoins, Layer-2 networks and smart contracts, while ETC remained smaller. The gap in developers, users and use cases widened. ## A Major Disappointment for Investors After rising above 170 $ in 2021, ETC fell more than 90% from its peak,causing major losses for investors who bought near the top. ## Is Ethereum Classic Completely Finished? No. ETC remains active,retains Proof-of-Work and supports smart contracts. ## Conclusion Ethereum Classic began as Ethereum’s old chain after the DAO-related ideological split. It surged above 170 $ in 2021,but the rally proved temporary. Today, $ETC remains alive, yet the gap with Ethereum has grown. **Will Ethereum Classic continue to lag behind Ethereum in the technology race?** $ETH

# PPI Shock Rocks Markets: Energy Inflation Lifts Rate Hike Bets ## What Did PPI Show? August US PPI rose 0.4% monthly versus 0.1% in July; annual inflation reached 5.4%, above the 5.3% forecast. * Goods: +1.1% * Energy: +4.2% * **Diesel: +24.1%** * Core PPI: +0.3% monthly, +4.7% annually * Intermediate goods: +11.5% annually Services rose only 0.1%, keeping pressure concentrated in goods and energy. ## Bond Market The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.83%, the highest since November 2023. The 30-year exceeded 5.25%, while the 2-year reached 4.37%. The 10-year TIPS real yield reached 2.46%, pressuring gold. ## Rate Hike Expectations CME FedWatch now shows a 62-65% hike probability, up from ~35% in early August. Strong NFP reinforced the case; cut odds are near zero. Most Reuters-surveyed economists still expect rates unchanged through year-end. ## Ahead of CPI August CPI is due Friday at 15:30 TRT, expected at 3.4% annually and 0.4% monthly. **Hot:** Higher headline and core could push hike pricing toward 75-80%. **Mixed:** High headline but moderate core could be treated as a temporary energy shock. **Cool:** Moderate headline and core could trigger sharp upside through position unwinding. ## Asset-Class Outlook **Gold:** Down over 100 $ in three sessions; real yields pressure it. **Stocks:** Rising yields, energy costs and hike risk weaken risk appetite. **Crypto:** Bitcoin remains around 79,000 $; rising real yields remain a negative backdrop. **Oil:** Brent above 100 $, WTI around 96 $; Middle East developments remain a major risk. ## Conclusion PPI shows inflation pressure is driven mainly by energy supply. CPI is the final major data point before the September 15-16 FOMC. Markets are positioned for a hike, making a downside inflation surprise the key risk. A cool core reading could trigger sharp position unwinding; a higher core reading could deepen bond selling. $BTC $ETH

# Skenario CPI AS Agustus: Emas, Saham, Kripto, Obligasi, dan Minyak ## Pentingnya Data dan Pengaturan Pasar CPI AS Agustus akan dirilis pada 11 September pukul 15:30 TRT, diperkirakan sebesar 3,4% year-on-year dan 0,4% month-on-month. Pasar sedang membiayai **kenaikan suku bunga**, bukan pemotongan, menjelang FOMC 15–16 September, dengan probabilitas kenaikan sebesar 55–63%. Ketegangan AS-Iran mendorong harga minyak lebih tinggi, menambah tekanan pada ekspektasi inflasi dan selera risiko. ## Skenario 1 — CPI Melampaui Ekspektasi (Panas) **Mekanisme:** Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga menguat saat pasar membiayai The Fed yang lebih hawkish plus kejutan dari minyak. * **Dolar:** Tekanan naik dari imbal hasil dan permintaan safe-haven * **Emas:** Imbal hasil riil dapat menekan, sementara permintaan geopolitik membatasi penurunan; berpotensi sangat volatil * **Saham:** Tekanan jual, terutama pada pertumbuhan/teknologi, karena risiko kenaikan suku bunga, biaya minyak, dan kekhawatiran margin meningkat * **Kripto:** Potensi penurunan awal; kecenderungan Bitcoin baru-baru ini bergerak mengikuti emas ketimbang aset berisiko menjadi kunci ## Skenario 2 — CPI Sesuai **Mekanisme:** Hasil yang sudah dibebankan tiba dan fokus bergeser ke FOMC. * **Emas:** Datar hingga sedikit positif * **Saham:** Kelegaan terbatas; potensi kenaikan dibatasi oleh ekspektasi FOMC * **Kripto:** Bergerak dalam kisaran ## Skenario 3 — CPI Di Bawah Ekspektasi (Dingin) **Mekanisme:** Skenario yang paling sedikit dibebankan; ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga surut cepat. * **Saham:** Kenaikan kuat karena risiko kenaikan suku bunga berkurang dan selera risiko hidup kembali * **Emas:** Imbal hasil riil yang lebih rendah mendukung, meskipun aksi ambil untung dapat membatasi kenaikan * **Kripto:** Potensi reaksi positif paling kuat karena selera risiko membaik dan risiko kenaikan suku bunga menurun memberikan dukungan * **Dolar:** Melemah ## Penilaian Umum CPI rendah menghadirkan dua hal positif: berkurangnya risiko kenaikan suku bunga dan kekhawatiran inflasi yang lebih rendah. CPI panas memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga dan menekan selera risiko. Risiko minyak dan Selat Hormuz tetap menjadi variabel independen. Periode hingga FOMC 15–16 September kemungkinan tetap sangat volatil karena CPI, geopolitik, dan komentar The Fed bertemu. $BTC $XRP

# Pengguna Trezor Diingatkan: Email Keamanan Palsu Trezor mengatakan penyedia email pihak ketiga telah disusupi dan penyerang menggunakan infrastrukturnya untuk mengirim peringatan keamanan palsu. Email dengan judul **“Peringatan Keamanan Kritis: Kerentanan STM32 Entropy”** bukan berasal dari Trezor dan merupakan upaya phishing. Perusahaan menonaktifkan domain tersebut dan sedang melakukan investigasi. ## Apa yang Diklaim oleh Email Palsu? Pesan tersebut secara keliru mengklaim adanya **kerentanan perangkat keras yang kritis** pada mikrokontroler STM32 yang dapat melemahkan proses pembuatan recovery-phrase dan membahayakan aset. Tujuannya tampaknya menciptakan rasa urgensi dan mengarahkan pengguna ke tautan berbahaya. Trezor mendesak pengguna untuk tidak mengkliknya. ## Risiko Nyatanya adalah Phishing Insiden ini tidak berarti perangkat Trezor telah disusupi. Serangan berfokus pada **infrastruktur email pihak ketiga**, sehingga phishing dan social engineering menjadi ancaman utama. Penyerang mencari recovery phrases. Recovery phrase yang bocor dapat memberi mereka kendali atas aset dompet tanpa akses fisik. ## Pengguna BitBox Turut Jadi Target CEO Casa, Nick Neuman, mengatakan pengguna BitBox menerima pesan serupa. Jameson Lopp mencatat bahwa penyedia email yang digunakan oleh Trezor dan BitBox mungkin ikut menjadi target. Ini bisa menunjukkan adanya kampanye yang lebih luas yang menargetkan **infrastruktur email dan pemasaran yang digunakan oleh perusahaan kripto**. ## Trezor Juga Pernah Melaporkan Kebocoran Data Pada bulan Agustus, Trezor mengatakan kebocoran dari ShipMonk membuat data milik **80.689 pelanggan** terekspos, termasuk nama, email, nomor telepon, dan alamat pengiriman. Data seperti ini dapat membantu penyerang membuat upaya phishing. ## Aturan Penting **Recovery phrase tidak boleh pernah dimasukkan ke dalam situs web, formulir email, atau diberikan kepada orang lain dalam keadaan apa pun.** Bahkan pesan yang terlihat resmi pun bisa jadi penipuan. Permintaan untuk memasukkan ulang, memverifikasi, atau memulihkan dompet melalui tautan adalah tanda peringatan besar. ## Front Baru dalam Keamanan Kripto Risiko keamanan kripto melampaui blockchain dan perangkat keras. Layanan email dan pihak ketiga lainnya juga merupakan permukaan serangan. $BTC $ETH

$BTC Ahead of Friday’s CPI data, the probability of a **rate hike** at the September 16 meeting is currently around 62%. Today’s PPI data at 15:30 TRT could serve as a preview of tomorrow’s CPI report, and the market could react sharply to today’s figure as well. Markets are now pricing **three Fed rate hikes across 2026–2027**, whereas just last week the expectation was for a total of only one rate hike. Pricing has been extremely aggressive because the environment remains highly uncertain, and this uncertainty is driving elevated volatility across markets.

Does anyone remember the Luna Coin crash between May 8–12, 2022? $65–68 → $30 → $17 → $1 → $0.00005 If this had been an upward move instead of a decline, the magnitude of the move would have been equivalent to a 136 million% increase. The Terra-LUNA collapse wiped out roughly $50–60 billion in market value and triggered a much broader wave of selling across the crypto market. Approximately 4 years, 3 months, and 28 days have passed since May 12, 2022. $LUNC $USTC https://x.com/ForExxKripto/status/2097675317804474829

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — SEPTEMBER 9, 2026 🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY Zcash ( $ZEC ) reached 1,290 $, its highest since 2016, driven by Grayscale’s ZCSH ETF. ZEC is up 57% weekly, 138% monthly and ~2,400% yearly; ETF assets reached 463M $. The Liquid attacker returned 3,400 BTC (~85% of withdrawn BTC). 598.5 BTC (~47M $) remains outstanding and the network is suspended. Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet called the retained balance inconsistent with a white-hat bounty. US-Iran conflict continued; oil neared 100 $/barrel, boosting hike expectations. BTC formed a golden cross, improving its trend structure but remaining a lagging signal. ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC opened at 78,446 $, down 0.8%, then recovered to 78,800-78,900 $. It remains near 78,600 $, below 79,500 $ resistance. A four-hour close above could reopen 82,000 $; failure risks 70,500-67,200 $. The cross is unconfirmed. ETF demand remains strong, with little evidence of whale selling. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH opened at 2,485 $, down 0.2%. Zcash remains the standout, with ETF demand and rising open interest driving the rally. Analysts see 1,435-1,500 $ as the next test. ━━━ 📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS Liquid’s federation reserve fell from ~4,200 BTC to ~197 BTC. Patched software was distributed; no timetable exists for normal peg-outs. ━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS Linea (LINEA) September 10, 2026 ~2.75M $ (3%) — 960.13M tokens Recipients: Consortium + Ignition, equally split Selling pressure: 🟡 ━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS August CPI on September 11 is the key event before the September 15-16 FOMC decision. A hot reading could strengthen hike expectations and pressure BTC. Liquid’s 598.5 BTC outstanding and reopening remain key watchpoints, while oil’s response to the Iran conflict continues to complicate inflation. BTC’s ability to break 79,500 $ and confirm the golden cross is the key technical test; failure risks 70,500-67,200 $. Zcash’s 1,435-1,500 $ target and LINEA/APT unlocks are tests.

🔐 LAPORAN PASAR AKHIR HARI — 8 SEPTEMBER 2026 🌐 BERITA UTAMA HARI INI Liquid Network mengonfirmasi sekitar ~4,000 BTC (320M $) ditarik pada 6 September akibat bug caching rangeproof di Elements. Penyerang membuat L-BTC yang tidak didukung dan mengonversinya melalui SideSwap. 3,400 BTC dikembalikan; 598.5 BTC (~47M $) masih tertunggak, dan jaringan dihentikan. BTC gagal merebut kembali 80,000 $ meski likuiditas tipis. Capital B membeli 376 BTC seharga 29M $, sehingga kasnya menjadi 3,521 BTC. ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC dibuka di 79,100 $, turun 1.6%, lalu jatuh ke 78,170-78,700 $. Imbal hasil yang meningkat dan ketegangan Iran menekan aset berisiko. BTC sekitar 2.5% di bawah rekor tertingginya pada 4 September yaitu 81,167 $. Likuidasi mencapai 55M $ pada posisi long BTC dan 208M $ di seluruh kripto. Support: 78,000-78,500 $. Resistance: 80,000-80,500 $. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH dibuka di 2,490 $, turun 1%. SOL turun 2.4% ke 103-104 $; XRP turun 1.8% ke 1.40 $. Pasar masih risk-off. ━━━ 📋 BERITA KRIPTO TERPENTING Pasar menyoroti CPI Agustus, kemudian CLARITY dan FOMC. ━━━ 🔓 PEMBUKAAN TOKEN Aptos ( $APT ) 11 September 2026 ~7.09M $ (0.65%) — 11.31M token Tekanan jual: 🟡 Linea (LINEA) 10 September 2026 ~2.75M $ (3%) — 960.13M token Penerima: Linea Consortium + Ignition, dibagi sama Tekanan jual: 🟡 ━━━ 🔭 PROSPEK & ACARA MENDATANG Data kunci CPI Agustus menjadi perhatian sebelum pemungutan suara CLARITY pada 15 September dan keputusan FOMC pada 16 September. 598.5 BTC Liquid yang masih tertunggak dan rencana pembukaan jaringan kembali tetap menjadi titik pantau utama. BTC harus bertahan di 78,000-78,500 $ untuk menargetkan MA 50-minggu.

# Crypto Platforms Under Security Alarm: 3.63 Billion $ Lost in Cyberattacks Despite widespread security audits, crypto platforms remain vulnerable to cyberattacks. According to CoinGecko, **more than 3.63 billion $ was lost through attacks and compromised credentials between January 2025 and July 2026.** Notably, many attacked platforms had previously undergone independent security audits. ## Why Are Security Audits Falling Short? CoinGecko’s August 27 report found that approximately **88% of stolen funds** and **60% of attacked platforms** had undergone independent security audits. Attackers often target vulnerabilities outside standard audit scopes. Passing an audit does not guarantee protection against real-time attacks or complex vulnerabilities. Beyond smart contracts, access permissions, private keys, employee accounts are also major targets. ## Bybit Suffered the Largest Loss **Bybit** is identified as the largest attack during the period. In February 2025, approximately **1.4 billion $** in assets were stolen. Elliptic assessed that the attack was linked to North Korean actors. **KelpDAO**, with a loss of **292 million $**, ranked second, followed by **Drift Protocol**, with a loss of **285 million $**. None of the three platforms had immediately responded to CNBC’s requests for comment. ## Passing an Audit Is Not a Security Guarantee Security audits remain important for DeFi and smart contracts. Recent attacks show a gap between audit scope and real-world attack methods. With billions held in decentralized or semi-centralized systems, relying solely on code audits creates serious risks. **The 3.63 billion $ loss shows that crypto security cannot be built solely around “passing an audit.”** Going forward, platforms will need to focus not only on smart contract vulnerabilities but also on **private key management, access controls, employee accounts, and incident response mechanisms.** $BTC $XRP