Inflasi memanas. Obligasi menguat.

CapitalFlowTech · 2026-10-16T15:31:06.000Z

Pada hari Selasa, kami menjelaskan cara membaca CPI pekan ini: inflasi utama diperkirakan akan didorong oleh energi, dan kejutan pada inflasi inti akan mengubah interpretasi. Inflasi inti ternyata mengejutkan. Harga inti pada September naik 0,3% dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya, di atas perkiraan 0,2%, sehingga laju tahunan mencapai 2,6%, naik dari 2,4%. Inflasi utama naik 0,6% menjadi 3,7%, dengan harga bensin naik 9,1% dan menyumbang lebih dari separuh kenaikan bulanan. Harga produsen menyusul pada hari Kamis, naik 6,3% secara tahunan—terbesar sejak Desember 2022. Pasar obligasi bergerak berlawanan dengan yang tersirat dari kejutan inflasi inti. Imbal hasil obligasi 10 tahun melonjak ke 5,33% setelah rilis data, melampaui penutupan 5,26% pada Juni 2007, lalu berbalik arah pada hari yang sama. Hari ini, imbal hasilnya diperdagangkan di sekitar 5,10%. Satu rilis data bukan berarti pasar menerimanya begitu saja. Saham teknologi kehilangan lebih dari satu triliun dolar nilai pasar dalam waktu sekitar sepekan, dan obligasi pemerintah AS dibeli sebagai aset aman. Kenaikan imbal hasil di ujung panjang kurva setelah rilis data inflasi inti yang panas menunjukkan bahwa pasar lebih khawatir terhadap pengetatan kebijakan daripada inflasi. Pasar kembali memperhitungkan kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga pada Oktober, sekitar 30%, sementara kenaikan pada Desember masih lebih mungkin.

On Tuesday we set out how to read this week's CPI: headline was expected to run on energy, and a core surprise was the outcome that would change the reading. Core surprised. September core prices rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected, taking the annual rate to 2.6% from 2.4%. Headline rose 0.6%, to 3.7%, with gasoline up 9.1% and accounting for more than half of the monthly increase. Producer prices followed on Thursday, up 6.3% on the year, the most since December 2022.
The bond market did the opposite of what a core surprise implies. The 10-year spiked to 5.33% after the release, above the 5.26% close of June 2007, and reversed the same day. It trades near 5.10% today. A print is not acceptance. Tech lost more than a trillion dollars of market value in about a week, and Treasuries were bought as the safe asset. A long end that rallies through a hot core print fears the tightening more than the inflation. Markets have moved an October hike back into play, near 30%, with December still the more likely move.
The 10-year is on course for a second weekly close below 5.26%. On the framework we published, that turns the 2007 close into resistance.
Bitcoin
$BTC  did not trade with bonds. It traded with tech. The CPI-day rally stalled near 84,000, just beneath 84,047, the 38.2% retracement it lost the week before. Thursday's slide then made a lower low near 79,800. That is the second time in two weeks that Treasuries were bought and bitcoin was sold.
The retest from below failed. $BTC  near 81,500, 34% retraced on the grid we published. Rejection keeps 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, as the next reference, about 9% below spot. Acceptance back above 84,047 is what would reopen the 83–87k zone; acceptance above 87k is still what changes the structure.
Positioning
The book is balanced. The BTC short, held for several weeks, stands against longs in $HBAR, $XLM  and $AVAX. AVAX was opened and HBAR added when bitcoin traded near 80,000 this week. Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin  #BTC  #CPI  #Macro  #Bonds 