RecodeX

📡 8-Hour Recap | 07/09 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets were dominated by a sharply escalated U.S.-Iran military standoff. The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran for two consecutive nights; Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz; and international oil prices surged by more than 8%. Brent crude broke above $80. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed growing concerns about inflation, easing rate-cut expectations, and a mixed performance in U.S. stocks—tech shares rebounded while the Dow fell hard. In the AI sector, financing and product launches remained active: OpenAI rolled out the GPT-Live real-time voice model, and Nvidia’s stock rose against the trend.

Macroeconomy & Geopolitics

1. Rapid escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict: The U.S. military conducted airstrikes against Iran for two consecutive nights, targeting Revolutionary Guard radar and missile sites. Iran said the strikes killed 8 service members and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz as retaliation, with shipping through the strait nearly at a standstill.

2. International oil prices surge: WTI crude futures jumped more than 8% to $76 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 8.62% to $80.55 per barrel. Shanghai’s main crude contract rose 8%. Russia’s diesel export ban continues through July 31, and U.S. diesel futures’ intraday gain widened to 13%.

3. Fed June meeting minutes show officials have widened their disagreement on inflation and the rate outlook: some officials support rate hikes; market expectations for a September hike intensified; the probability that rates will be held unchanged in July is 69%.

4. U.S. May consumer credit unexpectedly fell by $180 million, the first decline since 2024, far below expectations—raising concerns about slower economic growth.

5. U.S. stocks ended mixed: the Dow fell 1.09%, the Nasdaq rose 0.2%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.28%. Hong Kong stocks rebounded sharply, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 4.97%.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin faces pressure, driven by the spike in oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions. It pulled back to around $62,000. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire network totaled $387 million, with long positions dominating.

2. On-chain data shows large amounts of Bitcoin and other crypto flowing into exchanges. XRP is under pressure. Bitcoin spot trading volume share rose to about 67%, indicating a shift toward risk-averse behavior in the market.

3. The chair of the U.S. CFTC clearly stated that the U.S. will never issue a central bank digital currency, and urged Congress to pass a bill on the crypto market structure before the August recess. The EU plans to expand the scope of MiCA regulation.

4. The tokenized real-world assets market’s total scale exceeded $3.86 billion in June. Tokenized stock trading volume in June hit a record high of $3.4 billion, with Solana holding more than 90% of the share.

5. A crypto company under the Trump family, AI Financial, plans to sell its core business. SPAC backed by Cantor is renegotiating merger terms with a Bitcoin company.

AI & Technology

1. OpenAI introduced a next-generation voice model, GPT-Live, for global ChatGPT users. The backend uses GPT-5.5 and supports real-time conversations and interruption. It also won a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense.

2. Nvidia launched the Vera CPU for AI agent workloads. The stock jumped more than 3.65%. AI chip startup Positron is currently in talks for about $750 million in financing, with a valuation that could reach $5 billion.

3. Musk announced that Grok’s 200B-parameter AI model will launch next month. SpaceXAI released the Grok 4.5 model, priced at $2 per million tokens for input.

4. Meta announced plans to invest about $9 billion in Alberta, Canada, to build its first data center with capacity of 1GW to support AI business expansion.

5. China plans to allow some top AI companies to buy Nvidia H200 chips. Kuaishou plans to spin off its AI video generation business for separate financing, with a valuation of $18 billion.

Market Sentiment & Key Focus

Market sentiment is highly split: geopolitical tensions are boosting risk-off sentiment and energy shares surged, but tech stocks rebounded against the trend on AI-related narratives. The crypto market is under pressure, with capital concentrating into Bitcoin. In the short term, attention centers on whether the U.S.-Iran conflict will escalate further, how oil price moves will affect inflation and Fed policy, and ongoing waves of financing and product innovation in the AI space.

📡 Hourly Report | 07:00-08:00

1. The U.S. military launched another round of strikes against Iran. An attack on the Shaher airbase in the Iran Sahel area resulted in 1 death. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was nearly brought to a standstill. WTI crude rose by about 4.4%, and Brent crude briefly broke above $80.

2. June Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that concerns about inflation have intensified. Everyone agreed to keep interest rates unchanged. Some officials supported raising rates, and AI investment is viewed as a new variable affecting the economy.

3. AI chip startup Positron is currently negotiating about $750 million in funding. Its valuation could reach as high as $5 billion, posing a challenge to Nvidia’s position.

4. Container freight index (Europe route) futures have fallen by more than 40% from the June peak. Industry insiders say the upturn in inventory replenishment during the peak season has topped out, and the medium-term trend is relatively weak.

5. Hong Kong stocks rebounded sharply. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 4.97%. Public funds increased their deployment, looking for a valuation-repair window.

6. Bain Capital has exited completely from storage-chip maker Kioxia, selling all its shares. Benefiting from the AI boom, the stock price surged by over 4,000%, delivering a record return.

7. Zhipu announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to raise funds via a discounted share placement of about 13%, totaling more than HK$31.4 billion, with a placing price of HK$1,588 per share.

8. In the People’s Bank of China’s second-quarter monetary policy meeting, policymakers emphasized continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and strengthening financial support for areas such as expanding domestic demand and scientific innovation.

📡 On-the-hour News | 06:00-07:00

1. Tensions in the US-Iran situation remain high: the United States launched airstrikes on Iran for the second consecutive night. Trump announced that the ceasefire agreement has ended. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil rose 2% intraday to $75.07 per barrel.

2. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69%. Market expectations for a rate hike in September are split, with the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 51.9%.

3. Memory giant CXMT (Changxin Technology) disclosed its IPO prospectus for the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The new share subscription date is July 16, with a planned public offering of about 6.689 billion shares.

4. SK hynix’s US IPO was subscribed over seven times, with fundraising of approximately $24.5 billion. It is expected to set a new record for foreign companies’ US listings.

5. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed: the S&P 500 fell 0.28%, the Nasdaq rose 0.2%, and Nvidia gained 3.65%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose more than 2%, while Alibaba rose more than 11%.

6. Bitcoin fell back to the key support level of $60,000, affected by the surge in oil prices, risks to the Japanese economy, and Strategy’s new round of selling.

7. For the full year, China has allocated RMB 800 billion of ultra-long special treasury bond funds to support the construction of 1,417 major “two new” (two heavy) projects, providing solid funding assurance for infrastructure investment.

8. US 10-year Treasury futures fell. The market expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates by about 38 basis points in December, reflecting that expectations for monetary tightening are warming amid inflation pressures.

📡 Hourly News Update | 05:00-06:00

1. For the second consecutive day, the U.S. military carried out strikes on Iran; the scale is expected to exceed that of the previous day. Nearly half of the Chabahar area in Iran lost power. Trump said that if Iran attacks ships again, the consequences will be even more severe.

2. OpenAI launched the GPT-Live voice model, which supports real-time conversation and interruption. It also secured a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense.

3. The offshore Chinese yuan to U.S. dollar exchange rate was 6.8063, down 28 pips from Tuesday. COMEX gold futures fell 1.7%, and silver futures fell 4.3%.

4. Blue Origin is raising about $10 billion at a valuation of roughly $130 billion. Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalid Al Nahyan invested $1.13 billion in MidOcean Energy.

5. Moody’s maintained Japan’s rating outlook as “stable,” despite facing the prospect of tens of trillions of dollars in government spending, believing the fiscal trajectory is fairly steady.

6. S&P 500 index futures fell 0.48%, Dow Jones futures dropped 1.24%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures edged down 0.01%.

7. Cuba’s nationwide power system resumed electricity supply after the entire country experienced a blackout due to a complete power outage.

8. Microsoft Xbox layoffs also affected the developer of “DOOM,” id Software, cutting 136 employees.

📡 Hourly News Update | 04:00-05:00

1. The U.S. military launches a new round of strikes against Iran, with targets including Revolutionary Guard coastal radar and anti-ship missile sites. Iran warns of a “large-scale” retaliation against U.S. bases, and tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate sharply.

2. All three major U.S. stock indexes close mixed. The Dow falls 1.09%, the Nasdaq rises 0.2%, and a rebound in tech stocks lifts the Nasdaq. The energy sector gains 1.45%.

3. Meta announces an investment of about $9 billion in Alberta, Canada, to build its first data center with a capacity of 1GW to support the expansion of its AI business.

4. OpenAI releases national security guidelines, which will expand cooperation with the U.S. government and allies in key defense areas.

5. Tokenized stocks set a record for trading volume in June at $3.4 billion, up 279% month-over-month. Solana accounts for more than 90% of the share.

6. Spot gold drops 0.73% to $4,076.31 per ounce. COMEX gold futures fall 1.74%, and spot palladium declines 5% to $1,198.50 per ounce.

7. Citigroup reiterates its forecast: the average Brent crude oil price in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to be $75 per barrel. If a U.S.-Iran deal is reached, the average price for 2027 is projected to fall to $65 per barrel.

8. The U.S. 10-year real yield rises to a one-year high, as strong economic data and higher oil prices fuel market speculation that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates.

📡 On-the-hour News | 03:00-04:00

1. U.S. consumer credit unexpectedly fell by $180 million in May, the first decline since 2024, far below the expected increase of $17.5 billion, raising concerns about slowing economic growth.

2. Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that a few officials supported rate hikes, while most believed that if inflation persists, rate hikes should be made as soon as possible. They also noted that AI continues to drive capital spending and that second-quarter GDP growth remains solid.

3. International oil prices surged significantly. WTI crude rose 4.37% to $73.52 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 5.2% to $78.02 per barrel, driven by worsening tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

4. U.S. Vice President Vance warned that if Iran attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military will respond with force. Iran said U.S. military strikes killed two fishermen, and both sides have entered a stage of “talking while applying pressure.”

5. Nvidia’s stock gains expanded to 4%. Investor expectations of continued growth in demand for AI chips have driven the share price higher.

6. Iraq agreed to U.S. demands to stop providing dollar funding to Iran-backed militia groups in order to restore U.S. cash transportation.

7. Meta announced an investment of C$13 billion in Alberta, Canada, to build its first data center with a planned capacity of 1 gigawatt to support the growth of the global AI industry.

8. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged all parties to push for conflict resolution and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying that the global economy has shown overall resilience despite the impact of the Middle East war.

📡 Hourly News Update | 02:00-03:00

1. The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes show growing disagreement among officials about inflation and the interest-rate outlook. Some officials expect rates could be higher by year-end than the current level, cooling market expectations for rate cuts.

2. U.S. Vice President Vance claims Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed, warning that the U.S. will take action if Iran attacks ships or closes the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow plunged 800 points, and oil prices rose to $80.

3. SpaceX AI releases the Grok 4.5 model, priced at $2 per million tokens for input and $6 per million tokens for output. It has not yet launched in the European Union.

4. Bitcoin retraced to $62,000 amid a surge in oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions, as traders cut risk exposure.

5. The previous night’s trading for crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.30%, closing at 475.20 yuan per barrel; Shanghai gold fell 1.47% in the night session, and Shanghai silver fell 3.88%.

6. The yield from the U.S. 10-year Treasury auction rose to 4.58%, the highest level since 2025.

7. The tokenized real-world assets market’s total scale exceeded $386 million in June, and discussion volumes related to a “crypto community war” hit a three-month high.

8. Vice President Vance says the U.S. Department of Labor has issued dozens of H-1B visa subpoenas, investigating whether large companies profit from visa-related activities.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 01:00-02:00

1. US President Trump said the escalation between the US and Iran will quickly calm down; he does not believe a new war will break out. Iran responded firmly that it would defend the country’s interests, while Pakistan called on all sides to exercise restraint.

2. OpenAI has rolled out a new generation of voice model, GPT-Live, for ChatGPT users worldwide, including two versions: GPT-Live-1 and GPT-Live-1 Mini. The backend uses GPT-5.5, but it does not support video or screen sharing.

3. The 10-year US Treasury auction results showed a winning yield of 4.580% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.59; the post-auction yield increase narrowed to 4.581%.

4. The intraday declines in the three major US stock indexes narrowed: the Nasdaq 100 turned higher. Nvidia opened lower and then rallied to gain 2%. Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group fell to a 52-week low of $2.99.

5. The head of the Swiss central bank said the current interest rate is 0%. Entering the threshold for negative rates is very high, but it will act if necessary. There is currently no need to introduce retail digital currency.

6. The share of Bitcoin spot trading volume rose to about 67%, indicating that the crypto market is trending toward hedging. The chair of the CFTC urged Congress to pass a crypto market structure bill before the August recess.

7. Bank of America provided OpenAI its first loan of $520 million to prepare for an IPO. The SEC is exploring simplifying the IPO process to encourage more companies to list.

8. Google Photos introduced a video remix feature driven by the Gemini Omni model, rolling it out gradually to subscription users in specific countries.

📡 Hourly News | 00:00-01:00

1. Geopolitical situation escalates: A U.S. military attack in southern Iran killed eight service members. Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation, and Trump later said the U.S. will not enter a second war with Iran.

2. International oil prices surge: WTI crude futures jumped 8% to $76.08 per barrel, Brent rose 8.62% to $80.554 per barrel, and Shanghai crude’s main contract climbed 8% to 492.10 yuan.

3. Active funding for AI and hard-tech: Physical AI company Momenta listed in Hong Kong as the “No. 1 physical AI stock.” Fusion company Proxima Fusion secured €411 million in financing, and Prime Intellect completed a $130 million Series A round at a $1 billion valuation.

4. Cryptocurrency market volatility: In the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire network totaled $387 million. Bitcoin’s price plunged 50%, and about 40% of Altcoin trading prices are near record lows.

5. European stocks fall across the board: The UK’s FTSE 100, France’s CAC40, and Germany’s DAX30 all dropped more than 1.6%, as traders increased bets on further interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

6. Updates from tech giants: Nvidia launched the Vera CPU for AI agent workloads. OpenAI will release three GPT-5.6 models on July 9. Musk announced that the Grok 2-trillion-parameter AI model will go live next month.

7. Commodities and supply chain: Russia’s diesel export ban remains in effect until July 31. Citigroup expects the average copper price in Q4 to reach $14,500 per ton. Airbus delivered 351 aircraft in the first half of the year.

8. Regulation and policy: The CFTC’s investigation into Polymarket expands to marketing and compliance. France faces legal challenges to its DAC8 crypto data monitoring rules, and Rhode Island has passed a bill restricting self-checkout.

📡 Hourly News Update | 23:00-00:00

1. Geopolitical tensions escalate: Iran halts talks with the United States and threatens to blockade the Strait of Hormuz; Russia bans diesel exports. All three major U.S. stock indexes fall more than 1%. Brent crude breaks above $80. Spot gold drops 2% to $4,023.

2. The U.S. CFTC chair clearly states that the U.S. will never roll out a central bank digital currency, emphasizing that private-sector innovation should lead in digital asset development.

3. The European Union plans to expand MiCA regulatory coverage, bringing tokenized assets and non-EU stablecoin issuers under supervision. In 2026, the usage volume of euro stablecoins is set to surge 128% once regulations take effect.

4. China plans to allow some top AI companies to buy Nvidia H200 chips to ease computing shortages. Kuaishou may split its AI video generation business for independent financing, with a valuation of $18 billion.

5. An AI company under the Trump family’s umbrella, AI Financial, plans to sell its core business for up to $15 million. The SPAC supported by Cantor and a Bitcoin company are renegotiating the terms of their merger.

6. On-chain data shows large volumes of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies flowing into exchanges. XRP faces downward pressure. A whale holding a $27.75 million SK Hynix long position on Hyperliquid.

7. Financing remains active: Beeline Medicines completes a $426.3 million Series A round; Keyfactor receives strategic investment exceeding $1 billion; and Even Realities, a Chinese smart glasses company, reaches a valuation of $1 billion.

8. Most domestic futures night-session contracts rise: fuel oil jumps more than 6%, and low-sulfur fuel oil rises by nearly 6%. Affected by Russia’s diesel export ban, U.S. diesel futures’ intraday gains widen to 13%.

📡 Daily News Snapshot | July 08

Over the past 24 hours, global markets have swung violently under the dual shock of rapidly escalating geopolitical tensions and a flurry of intensive AI technology releases. A full-scale U.S.-Iran conflict erupted: the U.S. launched a large-scale strike on Iran, withdrew oil exemptions, and the security threat in the Strait of Hormuz was raised to “severe,” driving a sharp surge in international oil prices of more than 5%. At the same time, risk-off sentiment and the selloff of risk assets went hand in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. tech stocks continued their panic-driven decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging more than 11% over two days. In contrast, A-share and Hong Kong tech sectors rebounded strongly, highlighting extreme market divergence. The cryptocurrency market became a battleground between institutional inflows and tightening regulation: Bitcoin saw intense volatility near $63,000, as panic sentiment spread.

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📊 Global Macro

1. Full escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict: The U.S. military launched a large-scale strike on Iran—four to five times the scale of the previous attack. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retaliated by striking 85 U.S. targets in Bahrain and Kuwait and claimed to have shot down an MQ-9 drone. The U.S. Treasury revoked general licenses for Iranian oil sales and reinstated sanctions. Brent crude jumped 6% to $76.3 per barrel.

2. Rising U.S. inflation expectations: A New York Fed survey showed that June’s U.S. consumers’ near-term inflation expectations rose to 3.67%, intensifying market worries about tighter Fed policy. The probability that the Fed holds rates steady in July is 73.3%, but the probability of a rate hike in September rose to 52.7%.

3. South Korea’s stock market crash triggers circuit breaker: South Korea’s KOSPI index fell more than 6% intraday, down over 20% from the June peak. It triggered the circuit-breaker mechanism for the KOSDAQ segment. Foreign capital withdrew more than $100 billion, and the South Korean government pledged to strengthen foreign-exchange monitoring.

4. China’s central bank adds to gold reserves for 20 straight months: By end-June, gold reserves rose to 75.44 million ounces. Meanwhile, foreign reserves fell by $26 billion month-on-month to $3,416.3 billion. The midpoint of the yuan to the U.S. dollar was set at 6.8077, down 23 pips.

5. Germany’s industrial output beats expectations: Germany’s May industrial output rose 0.9% month-on-month, exceeding expectations. The auto sector led the gains, releasing signals of a European economic recovery. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.855%, the highest level since October 1996.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin shows resilience amid volatility: After Bitcoin broke above 64,000 USDT, it swung violently. But Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has been at negative values for 50 straight days—hitting a historic record—indicating weak U.S. demand. If Bitcoin falls below $60,795, the liquidation intensity for long positions could reach $1.577 billion.

2. Institutional inflows and tighter regulation coexist: On July 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $265.7 million, and institutional demand appeared to recover. At the same time, U.S. financial regulators jointly proposed that stablecoin issuers comply with customer identity verification rules, and the SEC released a 2026 regulatory agenda to advance trading of tokenized securities.

3. Coinbase obtains UK MiFID authorization: Coinbase plans to launch derivatives and stock trading services, expanding from the crypto space into traditional finance. Gemini launched a U.S. stock trade service with zero commissions, integrating digital assets with stock trading.

4. Extreme market volatility and security incidents: TAC token plunged 90% within 15 minutes. CASHCAT’s market cap temporarily surpassed $98 million, with a gain of over 11x in 24 hours. BonkDAO was hit by a malicious governance proposal attack, resulting in the loss of about 20 million BONK tokens.

5. Russia’s crypto regulation moves toward easing: Russia’s State Duma approved the final version of a crypto regulatory bill, removing the requirement for compulsory wallet-address reporting. The EU’s MiCA rules fully took effect a week ago, granting regulatory credentials to 21 stablecoin issuers and more than 270 crypto service providers.

🤖 AI and Technology

1. OpenAI announces the release of three GPT-5.6 models: GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna will be released this Thursday. They have already been approved by the U.S. government for global rollout. The Trump administration lifted restrictions on GPT-5.6, which may accelerate AI development.

2. Microsoft partially retires OpenAI and Anthropic models in some applications: Shifting toward its own MAI models to reduce costs, potentially reshaping the industry landscape. Meta launched a new AI image generation model, Muse Image, and integrated it into Instagram and WhatsApp.

3. Anthropic finds signs of AGI, triggering controversy: In Claude, an automatically formed J-space region was discovered, viewed by some as evidence nearing AGI. However, Yann LeCun, a Turing Award winner, publicly criticized the AGI concept as nonsense and warned that an AI bubble will eventually burst.

4. China sees a flurry of AI model releases: Tencent’s Hunyuan 3 official release targets performance on par with GPT-5.5, with hallucination rates cut by half. Zhipu AI launched a free AI image generator, GLM-Image, and plans to develop its own AI chips. Chinese companies plan to increase the share of AI accelerator budget allocated to domestic products from 30% to 46%.

5. Big tech firms collectively shut down C-end in-house agent features: ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba’s large-model products—Doubao, Qianwen, and Yuanbao—successively turned off agent functions. Reasons cited include high compliance costs and unclear commercialization prospects, and C-end large-model apps are returning to tool-like attributes.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. Full escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict: The U.S. military announced it has completed another round of strikes on Iran, hitting more than 80 targets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it struck 85 U.S. facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait and threatened further attacks. Kuwait’s armed forces intercepted hostile missiles and drones.

2. Security threat in the Strait of Hormuz rises to “severe”: The Joint Maritime Information Centre raised the security alert level. Qatar condemned attacks on its liquefied natural gas transport vessels. Saudi Arabia plans to expand Red Sea oil pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

3. NATO and European developments: Poland’s president warned that Putin could take military action against NATO’s eastern flank at any time. NATO unveiled a military procurement plan totaling more than $40 billion, covering capabilities-building against unmanned systems. France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen announced her total

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📡 8-Hour Recap | Jul 08, 16:00-24:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets have been dominated by a sharp escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions: Trump announced the termination of the U.S.-Iran reconciliation memorandum, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged by over 7%, gold jumped sharply, and U.S. stock index futures and cryptocurrencies fell under pressure. Meanwhile, the AI sector saw a flurry of releases: OpenAI, SpaceX, MiniMax, and others announced new models; Apple and Broadcom reached a chip deal worth over $30 billion; and tech stocks diverged more sharply.

Macroeconomy

1. Middle East situation escalates rapidly: Trump said the U.S.-Iran reconciliation memorandum has been terminated. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it retaliated by destroying 85 U.S. military facilities. Multiple oil tankers turned around to avoid danger through the Strait of Hormuz. The EU advised airlines to avoid relevant airspace. International oil prices jumped in the short term: WTI crude rose more than 7% to $73.71 per barrel, while Brent crude rose more than 4%.

2. U.S. inflation expectations rise to a multi-year high: the one-year outlook reached 3.7%. The three-year indicator hit the highest since June 2022, and the trade deficit rose to a 14-month high.

3. China’s People’s Bank monetary policy committee emphasized continuing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, increasing counter-cyclical adjustments, maintaining ample liquidity, strengthening interest-rate guidance, and stabilizing the exchange rate.

4. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell more than 20% from its June peak. Samsung and SK hynix also dropped more than 5% each due to concerns over chip trading. Circuit breakers were triggered. Foreign investors sold in large volumes while retail investors bought the dip, revealing structural risks.

5. Super Typhoon “Bavi” is expected to land along the coast from Fujian to Zhejiang on the 11th. The National Joint Office for Disaster Management and Control launched a Level 4 emergency response. An attack in Pakistan’s Balochistan province left 42 dead.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin fell below $62,000, down 2.1% over 24 hours. Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 51 straight days, setting a record. Analysts believe BTC has entered a bottoming window, and sell-off strategies have not triggered panic.

2. If BTC breaks above $64,957, the cumulative liquidation strength of short positions could reach $1.569 billion. If ETH breaks above $1,823, it would trigger the liquidation of $915 million in shorts, increasing market volatility risk.

3. Crypto venture firm Paradigm raised $1.2 billion for its third fund, focusing on the intersection of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies. U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows showed net inflows of 197 BTC and 12,193 ETH on April 3, respectively, indicating ongoing institutional interest.

4. Kazakhstan’s president signed an order to accelerate the adoption of crypto technology, including gas-power generation mining and an income tax exemption. Binance will conduct an Alpha Box airdrop at 17:00 for users with 245 points.

5. The HYPE token’s daily staking yield is about $1 million, but the LAB token fell 85% in 24 hours and was warned about potential price manipulation. BNB Chain plans to launch a new L1 blockchain.

AI Technology

1. OpenAI announced the GPT-5.6 model series (Sol, Terra, Luna) will be released to the public on July 9, ending the preview test stage. SpaceX will publicly release the Grok 4.5 AI model on July 9, with faster performance and higher efficiency.

2. China’s AI company MiniMax released an M3 Pro model with 27 trillion parameters. Its performance surpasses overseas closed-source models. It plans to open-source as early as Q3, which could make it the world’s largest open-source large model.

3. DeepSeek and Zhipu AI began developing their own AI inference chips to reduce costs and lessen reliance on GPUs. This marks leading AI labs shifting toward in-house chip development. Meituan quietly launched a trillion-parameter AI model, LongCat-2.0, trained on domestic chips.

4. Apple and Broadcom reached a multi-year chip deal worth over $30 billion. More than 15 billion chips will be produced in the U.S. to advance supply-chain diversification. Nvidia’s market value shed $1 trillion in less than two months; its forward P/E multiple fell to 18x, the lowest since 2019.

5. China’s CNVD claimed that the AI programming tool Claude Code has a security backdoor that can exfiltrate sensitive information. It advises users to uninstall or update. U.S. lawmakers are considering limiting domestic companies from using China’s AI models.

Geopolitics

1. Middle East situation escalates rapidly: U.S. forces carried out strikes against Iran. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retaliated by destroying 85 U.S. military facilities. Multiple tankers in the Strait of Hormuz turned around to avoid danger. The EU advised airlines to avoid airspace over Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon. Oil prices fell by $1 in the short term, while gold surged by $20.

2. Trump met with Zelensky, saying progress is being made in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and warned that there could be more strikes against Iran. Tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz is basically at a standstill, worsening global energy supply concerns.

3. Iran threatens that if it is attacked again, it will close the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices jumped 7%. China’s SC crude oil futures’ main contract rose 6.78%. The global oil market faces the risk of a supply disruption.

4. The U.S. Department of Defense for the first time included lithium in its defense reserves and tendered for battery-grade lithium carbonate procurement. The market believes this is more of a policy signal than a direct change to supply and demand.

Stocks and Commodities

1. U.S. stock’s three major indexes opened lower. The Nasdaq fell 0.31%, but Chinese concept leaders surged—an index of leading stocks jumped 3%, and Alibaba rose over 9%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closed up 2.99%, and the Hang Seng Tech index finished up 4.97%. Alibaba rose more than 12%.

2. Several chemical companies saw substantially higher profit forecasts for the first half of the year. Benefiting from improved industry supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical conflict pushing up petrochemical product prices, Oriental Shenghong’s profit forecast rose as much as nearly 12 times, while Hengyi Petrochemical’s rose over 20 times.

3. Spot gold broke below $4,060 per ounce, down 1.21% during the day. New York futures silver fell 4%. But after geopolitical tensions escalated, gold surged by $20. Data from the World Gold Council shows that in the first half of the year, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $8 billion.

4. Blue Origin completed a $10 billion fundraise at a $130 billion valuation

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📡 Top-of-the-hour update | 22:00-23:00

1. Iran warns that if it is attacked again, it will close the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices surge 7%, and China’s SC crude oil futures’ main contract rises 6.78%.

2. Crypto venture firm Paradigm is raising $1.2 billion for its third fund, focusing on the convergence of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies.

3. If BTC breaks through $64,957, the total short-squeeze liquidation strength could reach $1.569 billion; if ETH breaks through $1,823, it will trigger $915 million in short-squeeze liquidations.

4. Trump says the strikes against Iran only caused a slight rise in oil prices, while hinting at possible actions to push oil prices higher, as tensions in the Middle East escalate.

5. Nvidia’s market value has eroded by $1 trillion over the past two months. Its forward P/E ratio has fallen to 18x, the lowest level since 2019.

6. OpenAI deploys AI company-acquisition efforts by rolling out an application AI company, Northslope, to strengthen enterprise-grade AI capabilities; Mistral AI releases a model designed specifically for robots.

7. U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of 197 BTC and 12,193 ETH respectively on April 3, indicating continued institutional interest.

8. Blue Origin plans to raise $10 billion at a $130 billion valuation; Coatue and Bezos will subscribe the majority of the shares.

📡 Top-of-the-hour Update | 21:00-22:00

1. Trump meets with Zelensky and says the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made progress. He also warns there may be further strikes on Iran. Traffic for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz is basically stalled, intensifying global energy supply concerns.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF inflows increase. Analysts believe BTC has bottomed and rebounded. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s president has signed a decree to accelerate the adoption of crypto technologies, including natural-gas power generation for mining and tax exemptions on income.

3. The three major U.S. stock indexes open lower. The Nasdaq falls 0.31%, but a benchmark index for leading Chinese concept stocks jumps 3%. Alibaba rises more than 9%. The chip sector opens lower then strengthens, while Western Digital gains more than 3%.

4. Musk announces that Grok 4.5 will be released on July 9. Former GitHub CEO launches the decentralized Git network Entire and plans to open-source the backend to handle high-traffic coding agents.

5. World Gold Council data shows that in the first half of the year, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $8 billion. Oil prices jump in the short term: WTI crude is at $73.71 per barrel, driven by geopolitical uncertainty.

6. Apple and Broadcom sign a customized ASIC deal worth more than $30 billion. The partnership extends to 2031 and will produce 15 billion chips in the United States.

7. The world’s first solid-state battery manned fixed-wing aircraft successfully completes a test flight. Energy density reaches 410 Wh/kg, a 60% improvement over conventional lithium batteries—signaling that solid-state batteries are moving from the lab toward crewed aviation.

8. For the first time, the U.S. Department of Defense includes lithium in the defense stockpile and tenders for battery-grade lithium carbonate procurement. The market believes this is more of a policy signal than a direct shift in supply and demand.

📡 Hourly Update | 20:00-21:00

1. Blue Origin completed a $10 billion fundraising round at a valuation of $130 billion. Bezos personally invested $2 billion, showing strong private capital commitment to space exploration.

2. U.S. inflation expectations rose to the highest level in years. The one-year outlook is 3.7%, and the three-year indicator hit its highest since June 2022. Meanwhile, the trade deficit climbed to a 14-month high.

3. Trump said the Iran ceasefire agreement has ended, leading to a stock market drop and a sharp jump in oil prices. Escalating tensions in the Middle East may affect the global oil market.

4. MiniMax plans to open-source a 27-billion-parameter model in Q3, which could become the world’s largest open-source AI model, intensifying competition in the AI space.

5. Nvidia’s market value shed $1 trillion over two months, signaling a reversal in momentum for AI stocks. At the same time, Cathie Wood increased her holdings of SpaceX, shifting attention toward the private space sector.

6. South Korea’s stock market triggered a trading halt on the day Samsung released its best-ever quarterly results. Foreign investors sold in large volumes while retail investors stepped in as buyers, highlighting structural risks.

7. Bitcoin may be entering a consolidation-and-bottoming window. Strategies of selling off have not triggered panic; market sentiment remains stable, but analysts warn that capitulation hasn’t fully happened yet.

8. Amazon has reportedly been quietly advancing its Alexa agent project “Moonraker.” It’s expected that GPU spending in 2026 will exceed $100 million, and the high costs have raised internal concerns.

📡 On-the-hour News Brief | 19:00-20:00

1. The situation in the Middle East escalates sharply: the U.S. military launches strikes against Iran; Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retaliates by destroying 85 U.S. military facilities. Several oil tankers turn around to avoid danger in the Strait of Hormuz. The EU advises airlines to avoid airspace over Iraq/Iran and Lebanon. Oil prices dip by $1 in the short term, while gold jumps by $20.

2. OpenAI announces its GPT-5.6 series models (Sol, Terra, Luna) will be released to the public on July 9, ending the preview testing phase.

3. The central bank’s regular meeting emphasizes continuing to implement moderately loose monetary policy, keeping liquidity abundant, strengthening interest-rate guidance, and stabilizing the exchange rate. In a statement, ECB Executive Board member Näger says a sequential decision-making approach at successive meetings is appropriate in the current context.

4. U.S. tech sector updates: Apple and Broadcom deepen their chip partnership exceeding $30 billion. Samsung announces it will release a foldable phone on July 22. Nvidia’s new architecture requirements favor all-immersion liquid cooling, benefitting A-share liquid-cooling companies.

5. Cryptocurrency market: Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has stayed negative for 51 straight days, hitting a record. Strategy’s BTC holdings increased by 10% over the past three months. BNB Chain plans to launch a new L1 blockchain.

6. Autonomous driving company Momenta lists on the HKEX. Its market value briefly exceeded HK$70 billion, but it recorded an annual loss of RMB 3.458 billion. Net IPO fundraising is about HK$5.6 billion for R&D and commercializing Robotaxi.

7. In commodities: Bernstein predicts the memory bull market will continue through 2027, but the upward phase has already ended. A surge in memory prices has created “rich masters” in Huaqiangbei. Kodiak Gas signs an 1.8 billion-watt power generation agreement with Baker Hughes to support AI development.

8. Macro risks: Super Typhoon “Bavi” is expected to make landfall from Fujian to the Zhejiang coast on the 11th. The National Disaster Management and Emergency Response Headquarters has activated a Level IV emergency response. An attack in Pakistan’s Balochistan province killed 42 people.

📡 Hourly Update | 18:00-19:00

1. Apple and Broadcom have reached a multi-year chip deal worth over $30 billion, with plans to produce more than 15 billion chips in the United States to further diversify the supply chain.

2. Nvidia’s market value has shed $100 billion in less than two months, with its stock price down 16% from its all-time high. U.S. chip stocks were lower in premarket trading, and SanDisk fell more than 6%.

3. China’s AI company MiniMax has released its 27T-parameter model, M3 Pro. Its performance surpasses overseas closed-source models, with plans to open-source as early as Q3.

4. SpaceX will publicly release the Grok 4.5 AI model on July 9, with faster performance and higher efficiency.

5. The People’s Bank of China’s Monetary Policy Committee emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments, and maintaining ample liquidity.

6. The cryptocurrency HYPE token reportedly offers daily staking rewards of about $1 million, but the LAB token fell 85% over 24 hours. It has been warned about potential price manipulation.

7. South Korea’s Kospi index is down more than 20% from its June peak. Samsung and SK Hynix both fell more than 5% due to concerns over chip trading.

8. The European Court of Justice rejected Apple’s challenge, upholding its decision to designate the App Store and iOS as “gatekeepers,” requiring compliance with the Digital Markets Act.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 17:00-18:00

1. Trump says the temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran has ended. Oil surged more than 3%, the Nasdaq 100 futures decline widened to 1.5%, and European stocks fell to a one-week low.

2. China’s CNVD claims that the AI programming tool Claude Code has a security backdoor that can exfiltrate sensitive information, advising users to uninstall or update it.

3. After 6 months, SpaceX transferred a small amount of BTC (about $88) for the first time, seemingly to test a transfer, drawing market attention.

4. The European Court of Justice dismissed Apple’s appeal against its classification as a “gatekeeper” platform for the App Store and iOS, upholding the regulatory requirements under the Digital Markets Act.

5. South Korea’s KOSPI index is down more than 20% from its June peak. Leveraged ETFs from Samsung and SK Hynix face risk warnings after sharp declines.

6. Musk’s SpaceXAI will release its Grok 4.5 model to the public tomorrow. Its level of intelligence is comparable to Claude Opus, but at lower cost.

7. Spot gold fell 1.21% during the day, dropping below $4,060 per ounce. New York COMEX silver fell 4%, and gold jewelry prices in China were collectively lowered.

8. Bank of America said the biggest obstacle to cross-border payments is providing the same certainty, visibility, and immediacy as domestic payments.

📡 On-the-hour News Update | 16:00-17:00

1. Trump says the U.S.-Iran understanding memorandum has been terminated. Iran launches attacks on U.S. military bases, causing a rapid escalation of the situation in the Middle East. International oil prices jump in the short term: WTI crude futures rise more than 4%, and Brent crude futures rise more than 4%.

2. U.S. stock futures fall in pre-market trading. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures drop 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. The semiconductor and memory sectors continue to decline, with Micron and SanDisk down more than 5%. Bitcoin falls below $62,000.

3. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closes up 2.99%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rises 4.97% at the close. Alibaba surges more than 12%, while Xiaomi rises more than 9%.

4. JPMorgan says that commercialization of open-source-weighted models has created a winner-takes-all pattern. It raises Zhipu’s target price to HKD 2,000 and cuts MiniMax’s target price to HKD 300.

5. Several chemical companies report a significant year-on-year increase in first-half earnings. Benefiting from improved industry supply and demand and geopolitical tensions pushing up prices of petrochemical products, Oriental Shenghong’s earnings are expected to grow by up to nearly 12 times, while Hengyi Petrochemical’s are expected to increase by more than 20 times.

6. Renowned economist Gao Shanwen passes away due to illness. In his book, “The Truth About Economic Operations,” he argues that China’s economic slowdown process has not yet ended, facing challenges such as a decline in investment rates, elevated leverage and an aging population.

7. DeepSeek and Zhipu AI begin developing their own AI inference chips, aiming to lower costs and reduce reliance on GPUs. It signals that leading AI labs are shifting toward in-house chip development.

8. Spot gold falls below the $4,100 level. COMEX gold futures drop 1.42% intraday, losing the $4,100 per ounce mark.

📡 Hourly News Update | 15:00-16:00

1. Iran threatens to strike locations supporting U.S. attacks; tensions in the Middle East escalate. International crude oil gains expand to 3%, and Bitcoin falls below $63,000.

2. Musk announces that SpaceX will open Grok 4.5 to the public tomorrow. Joshua Achiam, a longtime OpenAI veteran, steps down, emphasizing that the AGI mission is not confined within the walls of a lab.

3. Binance will distribute an Alpha Box airdrop at 17:00 to users with 245积分 points. The founder of Gate receives a MiCA license early, which will help drive fair competition in Europe’s crypto market.

4. European stock markets fall. Germany’s DAX extends its decline to 1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 drops 1.85%, and China’s A-share market’s three major indices all fall.

5. U.S. lawmakers are considering limiting domestic companies from using Chinese AI models. Four ministries and agencies, including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, jointly issue guidance to advance applications of “AI + HR.”

6. Apple loses in its legal dispute with the EU over app store and iPhone rules. The U.S. Supreme Court allows Texas to implement an age-verification law for app stores.

7. Sinopec signs the design contract for the first whole-industry-chain sustainable aviation fuel project in Uzbekistan. BHP and China Ruilin sign a contract worth over 200 million AUD to support the expansion of South Australia’s copper smelting plant.

8. Singapore’s anti-scam center, working with five banks, stops more than 600 attempted scams within two months, preventing losses of over S$38 million.