RecodeX

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 00:00-01:00

1. Shengshu Technology completes a strategic financing round of $500 million, setting the record for the largest single investment in China in the field of general-purpose world models, highlighting the current investment fervor in AI infrastructure.

2. In the past hour, liquidations across the crypto market exceeded $70 million, including $45.65 million in Bitcoin liquidations, indicating rising market risk.

3. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the Fed will not deliberately maintain low interest rates; policy will be determined by economic data. This suggests future rate cuts may be more cautious, with market expectations this year seeing the probability of no rate cut rise to 77%.

4. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Arabica coffee futures surged by more than 9% to $3.2850 per pound, the largest single-day gain since July 2000.

5. Microsoft announced layoffs of 4,800 employees, mainly affecting its gaming business division. It emphasized that the layoffs were not directly caused by AI, noting instead that AI is changing the way people work.

6. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged member countries to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 as geopolitical tensions persist.

7. The price of humanoid robots has fallen below 10,000 yuan, but the embodied intelligence industry faces a second-half challenge from “being able to move” to “being able to be used,” with insufficient reliability in industrial dexterous hands.

8. A fire broke out at a factory in Weihai, Shandong, resulting in 4 deaths. The open flames have been extinguished, and the investigation is ongoing.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 23:00-00:00

1. Bitcoin’s price broke through $63,000 to hit a recent high, but Strategy sold 3,588 BTC (worth $216 million), causing the market to drop 4%. Analysts warn that a summer repeat of the 2022 trend may be in the cards.

2. Fed Governor Waller warned that hawkish forward guidance could become a policy obstacle. He suggested relying on data-driven decision-making for rate cuts, emphasizing that forward guidance must remain flexible and should not be “more is better.”

3. BlackRock extracted 7,546 ETH from Coinbase Prime (worth roughly $13.2 million), showing that institutional interest in Ethereum continues to rise. After Ethereum held the $1,500 region, it attempted to rebound.

4. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market reached $314 million—longs and shorts were both wiped out, leading to extreme volatility. A CertiK report shows that the number of crypto hacking attacks in the first half of 2024 fell 47% year over year, but losses surged 59% quarter over quarter in the second quarter.

5. Trump hinted that he may include Bitcoin in accounts, calling himself a loyal fan of cryptocurrencies, sparking discussion in political circles about crypto adoption.

6. Financing remains active: Tripo AI completed a $150 million A3 round; Skello raised €200 million; CurifyLabs completed a €12 million Series A; and Stoa secured a €2.1 million pre-Seed round.

7. Tech & AI: Tencent released the Hunyuan Hy3 model, generating a 3D parkour mini-game in 5 minutes. Illinois signed a bill requiring leading AI companies to undergo third-party security audits every year. Multiple companies have begun limiting AI tool usage quotas and charging fees.

8. Cybersecurity: Apple’s Indian supplier, Tata Electronics, was hit by hackers, resulting in data leakage of over 200,000 files (630GB). Quantum security risk experts warn that the situation has entered a critical phase.

📡 Daily News Roundup | July 06

Over the past 24 hours, global markets have been engaged in intense, high-stakes competition amid multiple geopolitical conflicts, policy shifts, and fragmentation within the technology sector. With Israel’s cabinet historically rejecting the Supreme Court ruling, Trump pushing signals for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and tensions within NATO intertwined, the geopolitical risk premium has risen significantly. Demand for AI hardware has continued to surge, but NVIDIA’s next-generation rack solution being delayed to 2028 has sent shockwaves through the supply chain—creating an “ice-and-fire” situation where worries about an AI bubble coexist with soaring earnings. Meanwhile, volatility in the cryptocurrency market has increased: Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $620,000–$6.35 million, and ETF fund flows along with a miner stress index suggest a potential bottom may be near. Investors should remain alert to structural opportunities after short-term shocks, focusing on the NATO summit, changes in crude oil supply and demand, and the earnings main storyline in technology stocks’ mid-year reports.

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📊 Global Macroeconomics

1. OPEC+ confirmed an 188,000-barrel-per-day increase in production for August. Seven countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia will adjust output. Saudi Aramco will cut the official selling price of Arab Light crude exported to Asia in August by $11 per barrel, the largest discount in at least 26 years. The market views it as a signal of a price war. Brent crude is nearing $70, and Wall Street has warned that supply could be excessive next year.

2. Citigroup expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to restart interest-rate cuts in October, since the rationale for hikes has disappeared—potentially benefiting liquidity in the cryptocurrency and RWA markets. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 77%. The market is watching this week’s economic data and remarks from officials.

3. Germany plans to raise net new borrowing for 2027 to 118 billion euros, due to tax revenue coming in below expectations. In the eurozone, July’s Sentix investor confidence index rose to -3.1, far better than the forecast of -10, indicating resilience in European manufacturing.

4. The central bank today conducted a 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a three-month term, ending a process of gradually shrinking volumes for three consecutive months at that tenor. It also carried out a 7-billion-yuan reverse repurchase with a 7-day term. Net injections for the day totaled 49.5 billion yuan, keeping liquidity reasonably ample.

5. This year’s full list of “two major” construction projects has been fully allocated. A total of 8,000 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have been arranged to support 1,417 major projects. The National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters launched a Category-II emergency response for flood control in Guangxi. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management urgently pre-allocated 160 million yuan in disaster-relief funds.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin nearly hit $63.5 million over the weekend, reaching a two-week high. But traders warn that Monday’s price action could be “extremely bad.” The Bitcoin Sharpe ratio has fallen to below -20, and the miner stress index has hit a historical low. Historical patterns suggest the price may be close to a bottom. The bargain-hunting index AHR999 dropped to 0.32, near a historical low.

2. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for the eighth consecutive week. Within four trading days, net redemptions totaled about $527 million. However, Trump said he is a “die-hard” supporter of crypto and hinted that his trading platform may support Bitcoin. For the first time in about a month, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows.

3. Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoins between June 29 and July 5, raising about $216 million. This is the largest-scale sale since 2020. Unrealized losses in the second quarter reached $8.31 billion.

4. Next week, more than $1.1 billion in tokens will be unlocked. RAIN accounts for $796 million of that total, and the market is watching liquidity-related risks. Solana’s number of active addresses over the past seven days reached 31.38 million, up 38% year over year.

5. A Bitcoin wallet that went dormant in 2011 was activated 14 years later, delivering returns of more than 700,000 times. The New York Times reported that nearly one million investors have cumulatively lost $3.81 billion due to the TRUMP Meme coin.

🤖 AI and Technology

1. NVIDIA’s next-generation AI rack system Kyber NVL144 has been delayed to 2028 due to PCB manufacturing challenges, giving competitors such as AMD extra room to catch up. Shares of PCB-related companies collectively plunged. NVIDIA also unveiled a new revenue-sharing plan, offering AI startups a share of future sales in exchange for providing GPU computing power.

2. OpenAI secretly filed for an IPO application, targeting a listing in 2027 at a valuation of $1 trillion. It will also proactively cede 5% equity to the U.S. government to hedge regulatory risks. Tencent officially released the Hy3 model from its Hunyuan (混元) line; its performance matches a flagship model with a parameter scale 2–5 times larger. It has been open-sourced and API prices have been reduced.

3. Micron Technology began a $9.3 billion wafer-fab expansion project in Hiroshima, Japan, to produce AI memory chips such as HBM. The Japanese government will provide subsidies of up to about 500 billion yen. Samsung Electronics expects a roughly 18x year-on-year surge in operating profit in the second quarter. SK hynix has launched an approximately $28 billion U.S. listing plan.

4. Foxconn’s June sales rose 52.1% year over year. Shipments of AI server racks have continued growing, and quarterly sales increased 40%—exceeding expectations. Zedap (永鼎股份) expects net profit in the first half to grow 57%–120% year over year, driven by booming AI compute demand that lifts both volume and pricing in the fiber-optic market.

5. SoundHound’s (云知声) stock price plunged 90%. The collapse exposed the drawbacks of a project-based AI business model and sparked market concerns that the AI bubble may be bursting. ByteDance and Alibaba, in response to new regulatory rules, will take down humanoid AI agent functionality from their respective AI applications.

6. Broadcom and Apple signed a new multi-year agreement to extend their technology collaboration through 2031. Broadcom will develop custom ASIC chips for Apple. Analyst Guo Ming-chi (郭明錤) predicts that Apple will release a foldable-screen iPhone Ultra in September 2026, priced around $2,299–$2,499.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. Israel’s cabinet unanimously rejected obedience to the Supreme Court ruling, setting a historical precedent. Netanyahu said the forces would continue to remain in Lebanon and reaffirmed efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Israel Defense Forces said they have fully taken control of the southern Lebanese area around Beaufort Ridge. The Chief of the General Staff warned that if a ceasefire agreement is violated, they are prepared to launch an offensive in Lebanon at any time.

2. The White House confirmed that Trump will meet with Ukraine’s President Zelensky during the NATO summit and plans further communication with Putin afterward, aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as quickly as possible. Trump said he had a “very good” call with Putin and believes the Russia-Ukraine con...

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📡 8-hour Recap | Jul 06 16:00-24:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets showed a mixed picture: mainland China and Hong Kong stocks moved in opposite directions, while US technology stocks rebounded strongly amid upbeat news such as extended Apple cooperation and continued AI demand. On the geopolitical front, just before the NATO summit, media reported that Trump took a tough stance toward NATO; meanwhile, signs of potential talks emerged in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In commodities, a sharp cut in Saudi Arabia’s official crude oil prices sparked expectations of looser supply, and the chip-storage price rise trend continued to transmit to the consumer end.

Macro economy

1. All three major A-share indices closed lower: the Shanghai Composite fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component dropped 1.16%, and the ChiNext fell 1.77%. Sectors such as pork, coal, and innovative pharmaceuticals rose against the trend, while robotics and PCB-related concept stocks saw sharp pullbacks.

2. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed up 1.14%. Internet-tech stocks warmed up: Kuaishou rose nearly 8%, and Tencent gained more than 4%. Southbound capital recorded a large net buy of HK$20.528 billion, setting a new high for nearly one and a half months.

3. In the eurozone, the July Sentix investor confidence index rose to -3.1, far better than the forecast of -10. In the US, the June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54, marking the 24th consecutive month of expansion.

4. This year’s list of “two major” special construction projects has been fully issued. In total, RMB 800 billion in long-term special treasury bonds were allocated to support 1,417 major projects.

5. The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters launched a second-level flood control emergency response for Guangxi. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management urgently pre-allocated RMB 160 million in disaster relief funds.

Crypto market

1. Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoins between June 29 and July 5, raising about US$216 million in cash. This was the largest-scale sale since 2020. An unrealized loss in the second quarter reached US$8.31 billion.

2. Trump said he is a “crypto die-hard” and hinted that his trading platform may support Bitcoin. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the first time in nearly a month.

3. The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s US dollar gold futures for daytime trading hit a record high of 6,676 contracts, indicating a significant increase in market participation.

AI technology

1. Tencent released its Hunyuan Hy3 model. Performance is comparable to a flagship model with two to five times the parameter scale. It has been open-sourced, and Tencent’s API pricing was further reduced. Tencent Yuanbao also integrated and launched a free Agent feature.

2. The first Global Dialogue on AI Governance was held in Geneva, focusing on four priority areas: AI opportunities, capacity building, safety and trustworthiness, and human-rights oversight.

3. In the first phase of the Cyberspace Administration of China’s special campaign “Clear Up: Rectify Disorder in AI Applications,” more than 14,000 non-compliant AI products were handled, and over 6 million pieces of违规 information were cleaned up.

4. Broadcom and Apple signed a new multi-year agreement to extend their technology collaboration to 2031. Broadcom will develop custom ASIC chips for Apple, and the stock price rose by more than 4% before the bell.

5. A Goldman Sachs report said the focus of AI investment is extending into the real economy. Global AI capital expenditures may reach US$7.6 trillion from 2026 to 2031, and world models could become a new engine.

Geopolitics

1. Ahead of the NATO summit, US media reported that Trump wants to turn NATO into a “cash machine,” asking allies to increase defense budgets, and plans to speak with Putin after meeting with Zelensky.

2. Trump said he had a “very good call” with Putin and believes the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end “much faster than people think.”

3. Ukraine’s military said it carried out attacks on Russian oil refineries in the Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions. Russia said the Leningrad region was hit by drone strikes that damaged port facilities.

4. Hamas announced the dissolution of its wartime emergency administration body in Gaza, transferring administrative and civil governance authority to the Palestinian technical bureaucracy commission.

Commodities and energy

1. Saudi Aramco cut the official selling price of its Arab Light crude oil for August exports to Asia by US$11 per barrel. The magnitude of the cut is the largest in at least 26 years, and the market views it as a signal of a price war.

2. Maersk announced that its AE15 Gemini service has resumed navigation through the Suez Canal. Analysts believe this is the first step toward a full return to the Red Sea.

3. China’s national average price for three-yuan sows and hogs continued rising for nearly 10 days, up 16.8% in a row. After four months, it returned to the RMB 10/kg level, and the livestock breeding sector was broadly in the green.

4. Goldman Sachs lowered its aluminum price forecast, citing faster recovery in Middle East supply. It expects the global aluminum market deficit in 2026 to narrow significantly to 1 million tons.

Market sentiment and key focus

Overall sentiment was cautiously optimistic: US stocks rebounded strongly on AI demand and partnerships involving tech giants, but Saudi’s crude price cut raised concerns about looser supply. On the geopolitical front, signals of possible Russia-Ukraine talks and internal frictions within NATO are intertwined. Investors need to pay attention to developments after the NATO summit and changes in the oil market’s supply-demand dynamics.

📡 Hourly News Update | 22:00-23:00

1. The U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54, marking the 24th consecutive month of expansion. The employment index rose to 51.2, while the prices index fell to 67.7.

2. Trump said he had a “very good call” with Putin and believes the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end “much sooner than people think.” He also said he has obtained concessions on the Iran issue.

3. Goldman Sachs reported that AI investment is shifting toward the real economy. Global AI capital expenditures from 2026 to 2031 may reach $7.6 trillion, and world models may become a new engine.

4. Trump said he is a “die-hard” supporter of cryptocurrencies and hinted that his trading platform could support Bitcoin. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the first time in nearly a month.

5. Dell’s stock surged more than 8% after Trump’s remarks. AMD’s gains widened to 10%, and the Nasdaq 100 hit a new intraday high.

6. A press conference in Nanning, Guangxi on flood prevention and disaster relief said the situation could expand further. The Ministry of Emergency Management upgraded the national geological disaster emergency response to Level 3.

7. Trump asked FIFA to review the red card decision against U.S. player Balogun and said he has spoken with FIFA President.

8. The Argentine government has postponed the legislative process for the AmE trade agreement, citing a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that limits the president’s tariff power.

📡 Hourly News Update | 21:00-22:00

1. The Bank of Israel will cut the benchmark interest rate from 3.75% to 3.50%, in line with expectations. It is also forecast that GDP growth will be 4.0% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027.

2. Strategy Inc. sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin last week, the largest scale sale since 2020. Digital asset losses in the second quarter totaled $8.32 billion, and the stock fell by more than 5% before the market opened.

3. Microsoft announced layoffs of about 6,400 employees, with half coming from the Xbox gaming division. The job cuts involve reorganization of sales and gaming businesses, and the stock dropped by about 2%.

4. All three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s gain widened to over 3.5%. Broadcom rose more than 6%, and Western Digital climbed more than 8%, boosted by AI demand and an Apple partnership extended through 2031.

5. Trump delivered remarks at the White House, praising the Trump account project and commending Dell. Dell’s stock surged by more than 3% in the short term.

6. Saudi Aramco will cut the official selling price for crude oil exports to Asia in August by $11, the largest reduction in 26 years. The market views this as a signal of a price war, and expectations of looser supply are rising.

7. In June, the UAE increased its crude oil production to more than 3.8 million barrels per day, nearing a historical peak. After exiting OPEC, output rose sharply.

8. Meng Fanli, Deputy Secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee and Governor, investigated the artificial intelligence industry in Guangzhou. He emphasized accelerating high-level applications across the entire region, around the clock, and across all industries, to drive high-quality development of the sector.

📡 Top-of-the-hour briefing | 20:00-21:00

1. Broadcom and Apple sign a new multi-year agreement, extending their technology collaboration through 2031. Broadcom will develop custom ASIC chips for Apple, and the pre-market share price rises by more than 4%.

2. Saudi Aramco cuts the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for exports to Asia in August by $11 per barrel, the largest decline in at least 26 years, in response to a global surge in supply.

3. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange reports abnormal trading volatility in the stock of China Gong Education. Regulatory measures have been taken against relevant investors, such as suspending trading, reminding investors to trade in compliance and with caution.

4. This year’s lists of “two major” infrastructure projects have all been issued. A total of RMB 8 trillion in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been allocated to support the construction of 1,417 major projects.

5. Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoins between June 29 and July 5, raising about $216 million. In the second quarter, unrealized losses reached $8.31 billion.

6. Morgan Stanley strategists say it may be difficult for U.S. stocks to make new highs in the near term. Funds are rotating from chip stocks to AI cloud service providers, with a bullish outlook on Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

7. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announce the resumption of service on part of the Suez Canal routes. Analysts believe this is the first step toward a full return to the Red Sea.

8. In a new industry announcement, the company says that its actual controller, Weng Xanding, has been placed under “retention for investigation.” The company also states that since 2021 he has not held any position, and that this does not affect production and operations.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 19:00-20:00

1. SK hynix launches a U.S. listing pitch, with an offering size of about $28 billion. It is expected to rank among the top three largest IPOs in global history and has received oversubscription.

2. The full-fledged surge in storage chip prices is fully filtering through to consumer markets. The price of a 1TB solid-state drive has risen from RMB 500 to RMB 1,000, and demand for AI compute power is expected to keep squeezing production capacity through 2027.

3. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Cleveland Clinic, and IBM achieve, for the first time, fusion-materials computing on a quantum computer, marking a major technical breakthrough.

4. In the first half of 2026, global activist investors launched 184 rights-protection actions, up 20% year over year, setting a new historical record.

5. Tencent seeks to sell its stake in Kuaishou, with proceeds of up to about $1.6 billion. It plans to cut holdings by about 273 million shares via block trades.

6. The UK Financial Conduct Authority plans to expand its regulatory powers, covering major tech firms developing finance-related AI such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

7. Goldman Sachs raises its target price for AMD to $640 and for Qualcomm to $180, bullish on the semiconductor industry outlook.

8. The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s U.S. dollar gold futures daytime trading hits a record high of 6,676 contracts, with market participation significantly increasing.

📡 Hourly News | 18:00-19:00

1. Uniscope Technology’s S&T Innovation Board IPO registration has become effective. The company expects to raise RMB 4.202 billion, with an estimated listing valuation of about RMB 42 billion.

2. SK hynix issues ADS on the U.S. stock market. Cornerstone investors intend to subscribe for up to USD 7 billion, with net proceeds of about USD 28 billion to be used for capital expenditures and the procurement of EUV lithography machines.

3. Maersk announced that AE15 Gemini services have resumed sailing through the Suez Canal, and the stock price once fell by more than 8%.

4. The National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters has initiated a Level-II emergency flood-response for Guangxi. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management have urgently pre-allocated RMB 160 million in disaster-relief funds.

5. COSCO Shipping Holdings plans to repurchase A-share shares for RMB 770 million to RMB 1.54 billion, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled and registered capital reduced.

6. Tencent releases the official version of its three HunYuan (Hunyuan) models. Yuánbǎo has been integrated and a free Agent feature has gone live.

7. Tianhua Group expects net profit in the first half to increase year-on-year by 710% to 857%, benefiting from higher lithium salt prices and increased sales volume.

8. Hamas announces the dissolution of its wartime emergency administration in Gaza, transferring administrative and civil management powers to the Palestinian technical bureaucracy committee.

📡 Hourly News Update | 17:00-18:00

1. Yang Youlin, former executive deputy director of the Nanjing Economic and Technological Development Zone Administration, was sentenced to death in the first instance for accepting bribes worth over RMB 2.2 billion, along with six other charges, and his personal property will be confiscated in full.

2. In the first phase of the Cyberspace Administration of China’s special campaign “Clear Up Chaos: Rectify Irregularities in AI Applications,” more than 14,000 non-compliant AI products have been disposed of, and over 6 million pieces of违规 content have been removed.

3. Wanhua Chemical expects net profit in the first half to increase by 60%-70% year over year. The main drivers are a sharp surge in global chemical raw-material prices and improved cost advantages from ethylene unit upgrades.

4. The national three-yuan-swine average price has risen for nearly 10 consecutive days, up 16.8% in total. After four months, it has returned to the threshold of RMB 10 per kilogram, and the livestock sector is broadly in the green.

5. Ukraine’s military says it has launched attacks on oil refinery facilities in the Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions of Russia. Russia claims that the Leningrad Region was hit by drone attacks, causing damage to port facilities.

6. Avision Holdings (a.k.a. ViewSonic/???), expects its net profit for the first half to increase by 264%-315% year over year, benefiting from growth in its intelligent control component business and investment income from companies it has co-invested in that have gone public.

7. Microsoft Teams has introduced a new strategy: when third-party AI robots join a meeting, they must be approved by the organizer to strengthen access and permission management.

8. Southbound funds today made a large net buy of HKD 20.528 billion, the highest single-day level in nearly one and a half months. The Tracker Fund (ETF) and Tencent Holdings received substantial net buys.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 16:00-17:00

1. Hong Kong stocks: the Hang Seng Index rose 1.14%. Tech stocks rebounded—Kuaishou gained nearly 8%, and Tencent rose more than 4%. However, Zhipu AI, an LLM company, fell more than 14%, while PCB-related stocks saw Jiannuo/Kingboard-related shares? decline—specifically, Grand Tech? (Jiandu? actually “建滔积层板”) fell over 12%.

2. Ahead of the open, US stock storage-chip stocks rebounded. SanDisk jumped more than 6%, and Micron Technology rose more than 3%. Previously, SK Hynix reduced the size of its ADR fundraising to $28 billion, and received $7 billion in subscription intent.

3. Goldman Sachs lowered its aluminum price forecast, citing faster-than-expected recovery in Middle East supply. It expects the global aluminum market deficit to narrow sharply to 100,000 tonnes by 2026, and LME aluminum inventories to fall by 3,225 tonnes.

4. According to reports, Luxshare Precision plans to price its Hong Kong IPO at the upper offer price of HK$63.28 per share, raising about HK$24.3 billion. It is expected to become Hong Kong’s largest IPO this year.

5. On the eve of the NATO summit, US media reported that Trump wants to turn NATO into a “cash machine,” urging allies to increase defense spending, and plans to speak with Putin after meeting with Zelensky.

6. In the eurozone, the July Sentix investor confidence index rose to -3.1, significantly better than the forecast of -10 and up from the previous -13.4. In the UK, the June construction PMI fell to 38.4.

7. Xinfengming expects first-half net profit to grow 94.59%–111.51% year over year, mainly due to a rebound in industry momentum and a widening product price spread. Kewaer announced price increases of 5%–10% for some power supply products.

8. The Tianwen-2 probe successfully arrived at its scheduled position at asteroid 2016 HO3 and will begin its exploration and sampling mission. Meanwhile, a prison riot in Sri Lanka left 25 people dead.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 15:00-16:00

1. China’s three major A-share indexes all closed lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.16%, and the ChiNext Price Index declined 1.77%. Sectors such as pork and coal, as well as innovative drugs, strengthened against the trend, while robot-related and PCB concept stocks saw sharp pullbacks.

2. China’s domestic commodity futures closed with more contracts rising than falling. Egg futures gained over 4%, and tin futures on the Shanghai exchange rose more than 3%. Containerized freight on the Europe route fell more than 4%, while lithium carbonate and dried jujube dropped over 2%.

3. The first Global Dialogue on AI Governance was held in Geneva, focusing on four priority areas: AI opportunities, capacity building, security and trustworthiness, and human rights oversight.

4. Tencent released its Hunyuan Hy3 model officially. Its performance is comparable to a flagship model with parameter scale 2–5 times larger. The model has already been open-sourced, and its API pricing has been further reduced.

5. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the reported test firing of China’s submarine-launched strategic missiles by China’s Navy, saying it is part of routine annual military training and is not targeted at any specific country or target.

6. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also responded to the European craze for China’s heat-protection and cooling products, stating that products that meet demand and offer good value naturally become popular, and that China–EU trade is mutually beneficial and win–win.

7. A former Japanese official in charge of foreign exchange affairs said the yen is undervalued by as much as 20%, warning that short-sellers should be careful about the risk of intervention. Goldman Sachs also cut its 2026 LME aluminum price forecast to $2,950 per metric ton.

8. Baodi Mining expects net profit to increase by 189%–210% year-on-year in the first half of the year, mainly due to stronger international gold prices and the sale of newly added gold and polymetallic concentrate/powder from its subsidiaries.

📡 8-hour Review | July 06, 08:00-16:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets showed clear divergence. South Korea’s stock market surged nearly 3% at one point boosted by improving expectations for semiconductor chip company earnings, but then sharply plunged. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s next-generation AI rack system, Kyber NVL144, was delayed to 2028 due to manufacturing challenges, sending the industry chain into turmoil. In commodities, gold rose above $4,200, hitting a two-week high, driven by risk-off sentiment. The Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin fell to extreme negative territory, hinting that a bottom may be near. Geopolitically, Kyiv in Ukraine was hit by missile strikes, and large-scale airstrikes by Russian forces caused multiple casualties. China’s Navy successfully tested a submarine-launched strategic missile. Overall, market sentiment is cautious, volatility in tech stocks increased, and capital rotated toward defensive sectors such as gold and innovative pharmaceuticals.

Macroeconomy

1. The central bank conducted a RMB 7-billion, 7-day reverse repo operation and an RMB 1-trillion unilateral reverse repo operation. Net liquidity injection for the day was RMB 49.5 billion, keeping overall liquidity reasonably ample.

2. Germany’s May seasonally adjusted factory orders rose 1.9% month-over-month, well above the expected 1.1%, indicating resilience in European manufacturing.

3. Goldman Sachs sharply cut its forecast for the USD/JPY exchange rate to 165, saying the interest-rate differential between the US and Japan and Japan’s slow pace of rate hikes will continue to pressure the yen.

4. Singapore’s May retail sales fell to 3% year-over-year, below the prior figure of 5.4%, suggesting weakening momentum in consumer recovery.

5. China Bank resumed issuing 5-year personal large-denomination time deposits, with an annualized yield of 1.55%-1.6%, reflecting banks’ need for stable long-term funding.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio dropped below -20, and the miner stress index hit a historical low. Historical patterns suggest the price may be approaching a bottom.

2. Bitcoin’s “bottom-picking” index, AHR999, fell to 0.32, near historical lows, indicating extreme pessimism in the market.

3. A report by The New York Times said nearly one million investors suffered cumulative losses of $3.81 billion due to TRUMP meme coins.

4. Expectations for Fed rate hikes cooled. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold continued their rebound, though overall trading activity remained thin.

AI Technology

1. Nvidia’s next-generation AI rack system Kyber NVL144 was delayed to 2028 because of PCB manufacturing issues. This gives competitors such as AMD room to surpass. PCB-related stocks collectively plunged.

2. Samsung Electronics expects operating profit in the second quarter to surge about 18 times year over year. SK hynix has kicked off an approximately $28-billion U.S. listing plan, upgrading the HBM race.

3. Meituan officially open-sourced its trillion-parameter model LongCat-2.0 and simultaneously released inference code optimized for domestically available computing power, lowering deployment barriers.

4. An international research team used AI to discover two new types of superconductors, providing new avenues for finding room-temperature superconducting materials.

5. Huawei’s Mate 90 series is expected to adopt a new Kirin chip based on the “law of compaction” (韬定律) and use logic folding technology, with a major performance boost.

Geopolitics

1. Multiple explosions were heard in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Russian forces launched ballistic missiles that caused casualties. Russia also fired 68 missiles and launched 351 drones into Ukraine overnight.

2. China’s Navy successfully organized a test launch of a submarine-launched strategic missile, firing missiles carrying training simulated warheads into relevant high seas areas in the Pacific. The relevant countries were notified in advance.

3. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that regardless of whether the US and Iran reach a deal, Israel will oppose Iran’s nuclear program.

4. The funeral ceremony for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Khamenei was held in Tehran, with millions of mourners attending.

5. Iraq’s cabinet approved research into a strategic oil export pipeline project’s preliminary agreement. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August.

Market Sentiment and Key Focus

Overall, sentiment is cautious and slightly bearish. Tech stocks are seeing higher volatility, and funds are rotating into defensive sectors such as gold and innovative drugs. Key areas to watch: the ripple effects from Nvidia’s delayed event on the AI industry chain, signals of stabilization after the sharp volatility in South Korean chip stocks, and the impact of geopolitical developments on energy and safe-haven assets.

📡 Hourly News | 14:00-15:00

1. Germany: After seasonally adjusting in May, factory orders rose 1.9% month over month, far exceeding expectations of 1.1%, compared with the prior -3.8%.

2. A-share EDA-related concepts surged across the board. Gigade Electronic hit the 20cm daily limit-up, and Huada JiuTian rose nearly 15%, boosted by Huawei’s release of the “Taoding Law” V2 version.

3. TrendForce data shows demand for high-end AI MLCC has surged sharply. Orders and shipments from Japanese and Korean giants such as Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics hit new highs, and the risk of shortages is increasing in the second half of the year.

4. SK hynix is set to list on Nasdaq on July 10, raising $29 billion, the largest-scale foreign company IPO in U.S. history.

5. In the first half of the year, the number of financing events for brain-computer interface in Shanghai accounted for nearly 60% of the national total, with the number of concentrated companies making up one-third of the nationwide figure.

6. Spot gold broke below $4,150, falling more than 0.6% during the day. JPMorgan lowered its Q4 gold price target to $4,500.

7. Sullivan’s report shows that Alibaba Cloud leads China’s full-stack AI cloud services market with a 40.1% market share, with revenue of RMB 23.9 billion.

8. Porsche is considering further layoffs of 4,000 jobs in Germany and will stop accepting personalized customization orders for new fully electric Macan and Taycan vehicles.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 13:00-14:00

1. China’s navy successfully organized a submerged launch test of a strategic ballistic missile. It launched a missile carrying a training-simulated warhead into related international waters in the Pacific Ocean, and the relevant countries were notified in advance.

2. The Huawei Mate 90 series is expected to feature a new Kirin chip based on the “Taoding Law,” using logical folding technology, with significantly improved performance.

3. Wallennium Technology, an AI chip company in Shanghai, raised about US$892.5 million through a new share offering to expand GPU production. Its stock price has risen by more than 150% since its IPO.

4. Analog Devices (ADI), a leading maker of analog chips, issued a notice letter stating that demand has rebounded, tightening supply. For some products, delivery lead times can be as long as six months.

5. South Korea has decided to build a new chip industrial park in Gwangju and speed up the construction progress of the chip factory project in Yongin.

6. The world’s largest 3D printing manufacturing center will be established in Shenzhen. Ztubo Technology, via its subsidiary, won the industrial land for RMB 141.2 million.

7. Russian attacks on Kyiv resulted in 9 deaths and 46 injuries, with multiple residential buildings damaged. During the night, Russian forces launched 68 missiles and 351 drones at Ukraine.

8. In Singapore, May’s retail sales rose 3% year-on-year, below the prior 5.40%. Month-on-month it was -2.3%, with the previous figure revised to 0.4%.

📡 Hourly News Update | 12:00-13:00

1. Guangxi is hit by Typhoon “Maysak,” with ongoing heavy rainfall. The National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Water Resources have upgraded their flood-control emergency response to Level III/II. Places including Nanning and Hengzhou have raised their response to Level I, and 65 rivers are above warning levels.

2. During the midday trading session in Hong Kong stocks, the three major indexes surged. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.83%, the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.16%, Tencent rose more than 3.8%, and sectors such as innovative drugs and power equipment stayed active. However, PCB-related concepts fell, dragged down by Nvidia-related negative news.

3. News in the humanoid robotics sector is coming in thick and fast: The CEO of Robo Party said the industry currently has a valuation bubble; Nomura estimates that for every 100,000 units shipped in 2026, 10 million training hours will be required; and companies such as Enforce Shares and Shanglu Electronic have disclosed progress in related business.

4. International research teams used AI to discover two new types of superconductors, opening a new path in the search for room-temperature superconducting materials. This could help reduce energy consumption in fields such as computing and power transmission.

5. Goldman Sachs has sharply cut its forecast for the yen versus the US dollar to 165, saying that the interest-rate spread between the US and Japan and Japan’s central bank’s slow pace of rate hikes are driving the yen to keep weakening. The US dollar/yen rose 0.3% to 161.93.

6. The funeral ceremony for the late Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was held in Tehran, attended by millions of mourners. Burial rites will follow in Qom and Mashhad.

7. South Korean lawmakers warned that the KOSPI index “has become a casino,” urging the delisting of leveraged ETFs. They are concerned these products amplify market volatility and consume corporate value.

8. JD.com acquired a Hong Kong student dormitory property in Yau Ma Tei for HK$750 million. Far East Development has pledged to provide a guaranteed annual revenue of HK$45 million each year for three years, implying an annualized return rate of about 6%.

📡 Hourly News Update | 11:00-12:00

1. Nvidia’s next-generation AI rack system, Kyber NVL144, is delayed to 2028 due to challenges in PCB manufacturing. This sparked a collective plunge among PCB concept stocks, with Topband (Dengta?) Accumulated Layered Board falling by more than 18% at one point.

2. Hong Kong stock tech stocks surged: Tencent rose by over 5%, southbound capital net bought more than HK$10 billion, and the STAR 50 Index rebounded in a V-shape, up nearly 2%.

3. The storage chip sector rebounded in a V-shape. Huahong Hongli rose by more than 10%, Samsung’s Q2 operating profit is expected to jump by 18 times, and SK hynix has launched an approximately US$28 billion plan for a US listing.

4. The market value of the Huainan Gold ETF exceeded RMB 90 billion, overtaking the CSI 300 ETF to become the largest ETF product onshore. Gold prices stabilized above US$4,000.

5. Meituan released LongCat-2.0, an open-source trillion-parameter model. Moore Threads completed its adaptation, and Enterprise WeChat released the first batch of AI recording devices.

6. Citigroup raised its target price for TSMC to NT$3,800, expecting it to improve the 2026 revenue guidance. Ongoing AI demand continues to provide support.

7. Japan began the 21st round of Fukushima nuclear-contaminated water discharge, expected to release about 7,800 tons. Iran held the funeral ceremony for the late supreme leader Khamenei in Tehran.

8. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell by more than 3% intraday, while SK hynix dropped by more than 5%. Goldman Sachs sharply cut its yen forecast, expecting it to fall to 165 within a year.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 10:00-11:00

1. Semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis said that Nvidia’s Kyber NVL144 racks may face PCB manufacturing process challenges or delays of more than 12 months, pushing the timeline to 2028—leaving room for competitors such as AMD to catch up.

2. China A-share innovative drug sector rose strongly against the trend. Shouyao Holdings hit the 20CM daily limit, driven by supportive policies and the momentum from CITIC Securities’ optimism about steady improvement in fundamentals.

3. South Korea’s KOSPI index intraday decline widened to 3%. SK Hynix fell more than 5%, Samsung Electronics dropped 1.6%, and market sentiment deteriorated sharply.

4. Meituan officially open-sourced its trillion-parameter model, LongCat-2.0, and also released inference code optimized for domestic computing power, lowering the deployment barrier.

5. The National General Headquarters for Flood Control and Drought Relief launched a Level-IV emergency response for Anhui and Shandong to deal with heavy rain and torrential rain from July 6 to July 7.

6. Trading value across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surpassed RMB 1.5 trillion, up by more than RMB 50 billion versus the same time the previous day. However, major A-share indexes rebounded after hitting highs, with the ChiNext index falling more than 2%.

7. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung urged speeding up large-scale chip and AI projects, stressing that “speed is everything,” and called for shortening approval procedures.

8. Goldman Sachs lowered its yen exchange rate forecast to 165 yen per US dollar. It favors carry-trade opportunities and believes that Japan’s slow rate hikes and ongoing fiscal pressures will continue to weigh on the yen.

📡 Top-of-hour update | 09:00-10:00

1. The People’s Bank of China today conducted a 70 billion yuan, 7-day reverse repo operation and a 10,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation. Net injections of 49.5 billion yuan were achieved on the day.

2. All three major A-share indexes opened higher across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component rose 0.52%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%. The storage-chip sector led the gains.

3. Commodity futures opened mostly higher. Tin on the Shanghai exchange rose by more than 3%, while live hogs, asphalt, and eggs rose by more than 2%. Stainless steel and lithium carbonate fell by more than 1%.

4. Multiple explosions were reported in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Russian forces launched ballistic missiles, resulting in 5 people injured, with an apartment building hit.

5. Jiangbo Long opened up more than 10%. It expects net profit in the first half of the year to grow year-on-year by 62,204%–74,394%, driving strength in the storage-chip sector.

6. The leading copper-clad laminate company Tripod (Comtec) released a price-increase notice. FR-4 was raised by 15%, copper foil processing fees were increased, and Hong Kong-listed PCB-related concept stocks opened higher as a group.

7. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stated that the government will speed up administrative procedures for the chip-industry cluster and will set up a committee in August to enhance chip competitiveness.

8. Amazon Web Services (AWS) notified its supply chain that it will raise the shipment volume target for ASIC servers in the third quarter of 2026, which is expected to increase the plan by 20%–30%.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 08:00-09:00

1. The Tianwen-2 probe successfully rendezvoused with asteroid 2016HO3, initiating scientific observations and reducing positional errors from over hundreds of kilometers to the kilometer scale.

2. South Korea’s KOSPI index opened strong and rose steadily, at one point gaining nearly 3% before pulling back. It was supported by SK Hynix launching a $28 billion U.S. listing plan and optimism around Samsung Electronics’ earnings.

3. Spot gold broke through $4,200 per ounce to hit a two-week high, as weak U.S. employment data and falling oil prices weakened expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

4. Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio fell to below -20; the miners’ stress index reached a historical low. The market is extremely bearish, and historical patterns suggest the price may be approaching the bottom.

5. Citic Securities is bullish on the innovative drug sector, noting improvements in R&D quality and global value validation. It recommends focusing on three categories of companies, including leading Pharma/Biopharma players.

6. South Korea launched a 24-hour onshore USD/KRW trading system to improve the convertibility of the Korean won and pursue an MSCI Developed Market status.

7. New trading rules for China’s A-shares took effect. Fixed-price trading after hours was expanded to the main board and ETFs, and the price fluctuation limit for main-board ST shares was adjusted to 10%.

8. OPEC+ decided to increase production by about 188,000 barrels per day in August. Oil prices came under pressure and fell, though shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain.