灯塔说
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灯塔说
Square Verified老牌交易员，专注二级交易|投研，严谨计划交易，严格交易计划！合作｜推特：@Cryptodengta
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Important Announcement:
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.
A recap of the market rally over the past two days (the key is the last sentence):
If you attribute this “bull is coming” surge to the U.S. government stepping in to intervene and drive down long-term Treasury yields—improving long-end liquidity and lowering financing costs—then next week you should focus on the speeches at the Jackson Hole (the annual global central bank conference) and on statements by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. These will重新 determine how the market prices inflation, interest rates, and fiscal intervention.
This also directly affects whether the move continues higher, or whether it “shakes out the shorts” before turning into further long positions.
After the market surged rapidly this afternoon, it showed the first instance of high-level turnover during the recent two-day upswing. It’s expected that we should take advantage of the weekend to adjust at these high levels and wait for signals next week.
If you can’t understand the fundamental signals next week, then just watch the U.S. dollar. Even though this rally is meant to intervene in long-term Treasuries, the dollar falling is a direct negative-correlation reaction. If next week’s signals feed through into a stronger dollar, then BTC and gold are likely to pull back. Conversely, if Warsh continues to support or accommodate the Treasury’s intervention, then BTC and gold should keep rising.
Technically, the current uptrend is already on the 4-hour timeframe. So the safest approach over the weekend is to look for a safe pullback level to go long, then hold and wait for next week’s signals. But both BTC and gold have already swept liquidity at the daily timeframe’s high zone. For BTC, be strict about whether it can hold above 78K. For gold, watch whether the daily candle closes with its body above 4600.
For the safest retracement entry zones, look at 73K–74K to go long. For gold, watch the two support levels at 4480 and 4380.
Summary: The main direction we repeatedly reminded you about earlier—buying the dips—has delivered a violent rally and paid off. Going forward, there’s no need to shift the focus to new longs at the same center of gravity. Instead, pay attention to when the up move ends, or wait for an opportunity where there is a stronger support to extend the rally.
$BTC
If you attribute this “bull is coming” surge to the U.S. government stepping in to intervene and drive down long-term Treasury yields—improving long-end liquidity and lowering financing costs—then next week you should focus on the speeches at the Jackson Hole (the annual global central bank conference) and on statements by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. These will重新 determine how the market prices inflation, interest rates, and fiscal intervention.
This also directly affects whether the move continues higher, or whether it “shakes out the shorts” before turning into further long positions.
After the market surged rapidly this afternoon, it showed the first instance of high-level turnover during the recent two-day upswing. It’s expected that we should take advantage of the weekend to adjust at these high levels and wait for signals next week.
If you can’t understand the fundamental signals next week, then just watch the U.S. dollar. Even though this rally is meant to intervene in long-term Treasuries, the dollar falling is a direct negative-correlation reaction. If next week’s signals feed through into a stronger dollar, then BTC and gold are likely to pull back. Conversely, if Warsh continues to support or accommodate the Treasury’s intervention, then BTC and gold should keep rising.
Technically, the current uptrend is already on the 4-hour timeframe. So the safest approach over the weekend is to look for a safe pullback level to go long, then hold and wait for next week’s signals. But both BTC and gold have already swept liquidity at the daily timeframe’s high zone. For BTC, be strict about whether it can hold above 78K. For gold, watch whether the daily candle closes with its body above 4600.
For the safest retracement entry zones, look at 73K–74K to go long. For gold, watch the two support levels at 4480 and 4380.
Summary: The main direction we repeatedly reminded you about earlier—buying the dips—has delivered a violent rally and paid off. Going forward, there’s no need to shift the focus to new longs at the same center of gravity. Instead, pay attention to when the up move ends, or wait for an opportunity where there is a stronger support to extend the rally.
$BTC
灯塔说
·
--
$BTC
Good market conditions arrived early in August.
But the directional reminder is correct: the main focus is on low buying—looking good for BTC and gold.
This is thanks to a sudden boost from Trump and the U.S. Treasury yesterday.
It surged by 6,000 points in one move, breaking 70,000 directly.
Now we’ve come up to the 71–73K threshold.
After that, as long as it holds steady in the 67–72K range, we’ll continue pushing toward the third-stage peak.
The market is picking up!
Good market conditions arrived early in August.
But the directional reminder is correct: the main focus is on low buying—looking good for BTC and gold.
This is thanks to a sudden boost from Trump and the U.S. Treasury yesterday.
It surged by 6,000 points in one move, breaking 70,000 directly.
Now we’ve come up to the 71–73K threshold.
After that, as long as it holds steady in the 67–72K range, we’ll continue pushing toward the third-stage peak.
The market is picking up!
Verified
U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion
Just in interest alone, it’s $1.2 trillion!
Just in interest alone, it’s $1.2 trillion!
$BTC Do you see this and really want to short?
But you have to hold it in!
This is just a high-level position switch!
The signal to short needs to wait
(If you peel the skin back, just pretend I didn’t say it)
But you have to hold it in!
This is just a high-level position switch!
The signal to short needs to wait
(If you peel the skin back, just pretend I didn’t say it)
$BTC
Good market conditions arrived early in August.
But the directional reminder is correct: the main focus is on low buying—looking good for BTC and gold.
This is thanks to a sudden boost from Trump and the U.S. Treasury yesterday.
It surged by 6,000 points in one move, breaking 70,000 directly.
Now we’ve come up to the 71–73K threshold.
After that, as long as it holds steady in the 67–72K range, we’ll continue pushing toward the third-stage peak.
The market is picking up!
Good market conditions arrived early in August.
But the directional reminder is correct: the main focus is on low buying—looking good for BTC and gold.
This is thanks to a sudden boost from Trump and the U.S. Treasury yesterday.
It surged by 6,000 points in one move, breaking 70,000 directly.
Now we’ve come up to the 71–73K threshold.
After that, as long as it holds steady in the 67–72K range, we’ll continue pushing toward the third-stage peak.
The market is picking up!
灯塔说
·
--
Today is the last day of July—marking the closing of the monthly chart.
I want to write something, but it feels like there’s not much worth writing.
So I’ll simply summarize each thing I want to say:
1、July ends successfully; I’m fairly satisfied. From the 1st to every fundamental-driven move from last night, I managed to catch each wave in advance. The regret is that I didn’t perfectly capture the full move. The follower test account also achieved 200%+ returns, with drawdown controlled within 12%.
2、August is tough, but once we get through August and transition into September, Q4’s market should be much better;
3、Fundamentals remain the main line; technical analysis is there to assist. In July, I spent a lot of effort understanding deeper macro information—and I also reaped the returns from that effort.
4、I’m bullish on gold and BTC. The main approach going forward is to buy on dips and go long. In August, I’ll consider using more dip-buying tools.
5、The waters in the US stock market run too deep. It’s not an area I’m familiar with, so I’ll look for speculative opportunities at the extreme high and low points.
Each of the points above will be discussed in more depth from time to time during livestreams on the Square and in the Star Sphere!
$BTC $CL $XAU
I want to write something, but it feels like there’s not much worth writing.
So I’ll simply summarize each thing I want to say:
1、July ends successfully; I’m fairly satisfied. From the 1st to every fundamental-driven move from last night, I managed to catch each wave in advance. The regret is that I didn’t perfectly capture the full move. The follower test account also achieved 200%+ returns, with drawdown controlled within 12%.
2、August is tough, but once we get through August and transition into September, Q4’s market should be much better;
3、Fundamentals remain the main line; technical analysis is there to assist. In July, I spent a lot of effort understanding deeper macro information—and I also reaped the returns from that effort.
4、I’m bullish on gold and BTC. The main approach going forward is to buy on dips and go long. In August, I’ll consider using more dip-buying tools.
5、The waters in the US stock market run too deep. It’s not an area I’m familiar with, so I’ll look for speculative opportunities at the extreme high and low points.
Each of the points above will be discussed in more depth from time to time during livestreams on the Square and in the Star Sphere!
$BTC $CL $XAU
Brothers, I'm back!
Morning, brothers
$SPCX earnings report exceeded expectations
Just hit the set 130 take-profit
On the 6th there will be a large amount of unlocks—watch the sell pressure!
$SPCX earnings report exceeded expectations
Just hit the set 130 take-profit
On the 6th there will be a large amount of unlocks—watch the sell pressure!
灯塔说
·
--
Brothers, we’re all about unity of knowledge and action.
And I also hate empty talk.
That’s why I’ve been trading on the live market.
The $SPCX earnings report hasn’t been released yet, but the adjustment last night just pulled back to the order levels I warned about.
Now it’s completely possible to include a stop-loss at cost and see if we can push a run to the opening price of 135 once the report comes out.
And I also hate empty talk.
That’s why I’ve been trading on the live market.
The $SPCX earnings report hasn’t been released yet, but the adjustment last night just pulled back to the order levels I warned about.
Now it’s completely possible to include a stop-loss at cost and see if we can push a run to the opening price of 135 once the report comes out.
Regarding the Iran-Iraq negotiations, right now besides Qatar, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, and some unknown third-party media that reported it,
there are still two crucial figures who haven’t spoken: Iran and Trump
Can Iran pretend to deny it just a little
so my short positions can all come out tonight
Tomorrow I’m also driving myself—I want to drive in peace
If it really doesn’t work
then I’ll have to close out and take a rest
spcx went from 109 to 120, that’s enough
and the financial report doesn’t matter much either
The big bet and gold shorts are still the main direction
but the entry price is still a bit too early and uncomfortable
I might reduce my position first, then feel at ease holding and waiting for the rebound to end
$SPCX
$XAU
$BTC
there are still two crucial figures who haven’t spoken: Iran and Trump
Can Iran pretend to deny it just a little
so my short positions can all come out tonight
Tomorrow I’m also driving myself—I want to drive in peace
If it really doesn’t work
then I’ll have to close out and take a rest
spcx went from 109 to 120, that’s enough
and the financial report doesn’t matter much either
The big bet and gold shorts are still the main direction
but the entry price is still a bit too early and uncomfortable
I might reduce my position first, then feel at ease holding and waiting for the rebound to end
$SPCX
$XAU
$BTC
Does your finance minister’s words work?
Talking nonsense here
If you had something to say, why didn’t you say it earlier?
If what you said doesn’t work, don’t say it
CNM
My crude oil short position opened at 81 didn’t move for more than half an hour
After I had been shorted for over half an hour, it started accelerating into a sell-off
Right after that, you came out and started talking
You already set up your short position
Right?
$CL
Talking nonsense here
If you had something to say, why didn’t you say it earlier?
If what you said doesn’t work, don’t say it
CNM
My crude oil short position opened at 81 didn’t move for more than half an hour
After I had been shorted for over half an hour, it started accelerating into a sell-off
Right after that, you came out and started talking
You already set up your short position
Right?
$CL
Bitcoin and gold short positions entered a little early
A little too eager
Still, because the shorts could come at any moment, I was afraid of missing out
In this round, I want to profit from both long and short trades!
Wait for the wind to come!
$BTC $XAU $SPCX
A little too eager
Still, because the shorts could come at any moment, I was afraid of missing out
In this round, I want to profit from both long and short trades!
Wait for the wind to come!
$BTC $XAU $SPCX
灯塔说
·
--
Don’t drag it out.
Stop just skimming the surface.
Hurry up—the waterfall.
I have a whole pile of empty orders (BTC and gold).
Besides $SPCX
Stop just skimming the surface.
Hurry up—the waterfall.
I have a whole pile of empty orders (BTC and gold).
Besides $SPCX
Verified
The Federal Reserve’s July meeting will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%, but three committee members called for a 25BP rate hike; the official statement still emphasizes that inflation remains above target.
As of August 3, the expectation for a rate hike on September 17 is 73.6%
Looking at today’s latest expectation, it is 64.7%
This indicates that the market’s expectation for a rate hike in September is getting higher (with such elevated expectations, it’s difficult for the near-term market to be bullish).
The data for August is crucial: for the August 7 jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), the forecast is over 80,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%
The actual released data is critical.
The pressure is on Worsh! If all the data strongly points toward a rate hike, can Worsh hold up under the pressure and keep rates unchanged?
$XAU $CL
As of August 3, the expectation for a rate hike on September 17 is 73.6%
Looking at today’s latest expectation, it is 64.7%
This indicates that the market’s expectation for a rate hike in September is getting higher (with such elevated expectations, it’s difficult for the near-term market to be bullish).
The data for August is crucial: for the August 7 jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), the forecast is over 80,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%
The actual released data is critical.
The pressure is on Worsh! If all the data strongly points toward a rate hike, can Worsh hold up under the pressure and keep rates unchanged?
$XAU $CL
I don’t mean anything targeted at anyone here.
I just want to use this kind of venting to warn you in advance:
This kind of trading can’t make money.
Only “the thrill of the experience.”
That sense of experience will consume your costs,
wear down your principal.
This short-term fast thrill is the best combo product for “teachers” who just entered the market and brand-new “rookies.”
Do you like this approach?
I just want to use this kind of venting to warn you in advance:
This kind of trading can’t make money.
Only “the thrill of the experience.”
That sense of experience will consume your costs,
wear down your principal.
This short-term fast thrill is the best combo product for “teachers” who just entered the market and brand-new “rookies.”
Do you like this approach?
灯塔说
·
--
At this stage, the only ones who can survive are old “suckers”
I don’t understand why they still like listening to those who peddle big dreams to make a few hundred points—when ETH earns just 10–20 points and they get excited and shout “I made it big!”
Aren’t they completely stupid?
If you can actually make money, that would be strange.
I don’t understand why they still like listening to those who peddle big dreams to make a few hundred points—when ETH earns just 10–20 points and they get excited and shout “I made it big!”
Aren’t they completely stupid?
If you can actually make money, that would be strange.
$SPCX How’s this second-market “big test” going?
Wall Street broadly expects Q2 revenue to be between $6.72 billion and $6.90 billion. GAAP net loss is expected to be on the order of $2 billion.
Starlink’s connection services revenue is currently the absolute main driver. The market urgently needs to see a clear path to monetizing AI-related applications, along with strong growth in subscription users.
Believe in Musk once
And believe in the first earnings report after the IPO
Last night I also successfully got in at the pullback entry point.
Now it’s possible to cut the loss at cost until the earnings report is released.
Sell before the lockup shares are unlocked and released on August 6!
Wall Street broadly expects Q2 revenue to be between $6.72 billion and $6.90 billion. GAAP net loss is expected to be on the order of $2 billion.
Starlink’s connection services revenue is currently the absolute main driver. The market urgently needs to see a clear path to monetizing AI-related applications, along with strong growth in subscription users.
Believe in Musk once
And believe in the first earnings report after the IPO
Last night I also successfully got in at the pullback entry point.
Now it’s possible to cut the loss at cost until the earnings report is released.
Sell before the lockup shares are unlocked and released on August 6!
灯塔说
·
--
Brothers, we’re all about unity of knowledge and action.
And I also hate empty talk.
That’s why I’ve been trading on the live market.
The $SPCX earnings report hasn’t been released yet, but the adjustment last night just pulled back to the order levels I warned about.
Now it’s completely possible to include a stop-loss at cost and see if we can push a run to the opening price of 135 once the report comes out.
And I also hate empty talk.
That’s why I’ve been trading on the live market.
The $SPCX earnings report hasn’t been released yet, but the adjustment last night just pulled back to the order levels I warned about.
Now it’s completely possible to include a stop-loss at cost and see if we can push a run to the opening price of 135 once the report comes out.
Verified
Trillion-dollar dead money, a brand-new key—can Babylon TBV really work?
I think what BTCFi should truly solve has never been:
How to create yet another BTC.
Instead, it should be how to make the native BTC in users’ wallets truly become an asset that can do work.
That’s also why I’ve been paying attention to Babylon Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBV) recently.
In the past, if you wanted to use BTC as collateral on Aave to borrow USDC, you usually had to take an extra step:
BTC → WBTC / cbBTC → deposit as collateral → borrow
It looks like you’re pledging BTC, but in reality there’s an additional layer of wrapping, custody, or cross-chain risk.
TBV aims to remove that layer.
Its approach is very straightforward:
BTC stays on the Bitcoin mainnet, locked up in its native form, while the collateral capacity of this portion of BTC is connected to Aave.
If the integration between Aave V4 and TBV is fully realized, a very interesting path could emerge in the future:
Native BTC → TBV → Aave → borrow USDC / GHO
No need to sell BTC.
No need to convert it to WBTC first.
And you don’t have to hand your native BTC over to a centralized custodian.
This is actually extremely meaningful for long-term BTC holders.
For example, if I have 10 BTC, I’m bullish long term and don’t want to sell, but I need some dollar liquidity now.
In the past, I had to choose between “selling BTC” and “tokenizing BTC as an asset.”
Later, there may be another option:
BTC stays put, but you use the credit of BTC to raise financing.
Of course, borrowing always involves LTV, interest, and liquidation risk—and this TBV architecture still needs time to prove itself.
But what I care about more is the direction behind @BabylonLabs_io :
In the past, everyone studied how to move BTC into DeFi.
Now, some people are starting to research—
Can DeFi, in turn, serve native BTC?
If this path ultimately works, what would be truly valuable in the next phase of BTCFi might not be more Wrapped BTC.
Instead, it could be native BTC itself becoming the foundational collateral asset for the on-chain financial world.
That’s what makes TBV the most worth paying attention to.
#baby $BABY
#baby $BABY @BabylonLabs_io
I think what BTCFi should truly solve has never been:
How to create yet another BTC.
Instead, it should be how to make the native BTC in users’ wallets truly become an asset that can do work.
That’s also why I’ve been paying attention to Babylon Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBV) recently.
In the past, if you wanted to use BTC as collateral on Aave to borrow USDC, you usually had to take an extra step:
BTC → WBTC / cbBTC → deposit as collateral → borrow
It looks like you’re pledging BTC, but in reality there’s an additional layer of wrapping, custody, or cross-chain risk.
TBV aims to remove that layer.
Its approach is very straightforward:
BTC stays on the Bitcoin mainnet, locked up in its native form, while the collateral capacity of this portion of BTC is connected to Aave.
If the integration between Aave V4 and TBV is fully realized, a very interesting path could emerge in the future:
Native BTC → TBV → Aave → borrow USDC / GHO
No need to sell BTC.
No need to convert it to WBTC first.
And you don’t have to hand your native BTC over to a centralized custodian.
This is actually extremely meaningful for long-term BTC holders.
For example, if I have 10 BTC, I’m bullish long term and don’t want to sell, but I need some dollar liquidity now.
In the past, I had to choose between “selling BTC” and “tokenizing BTC as an asset.”
Later, there may be another option:
BTC stays put, but you use the credit of BTC to raise financing.
Of course, borrowing always involves LTV, interest, and liquidation risk—and this TBV architecture still needs time to prove itself.
But what I care about more is the direction behind @BabylonLabs_io :
In the past, everyone studied how to move BTC into DeFi.
Now, some people are starting to research—
Can DeFi, in turn, serve native BTC?
If this path ultimately works, what would be truly valuable in the next phase of BTCFi might not be more Wrapped BTC.
Instead, it could be native BTC itself becoming the foundational collateral asset for the on-chain financial world.
That’s what makes TBV the most worth paying attention to.
#baby $BABY
#baby $BABY @BabylonLabs_io
Brothers, we’re all about unity of knowledge and action.
And I also hate empty talk.
That’s why I’ve been trading on the live market.
The $SPCX earnings report hasn’t been released yet, but the adjustment last night just pulled back to the order levels I warned about.
Now it’s completely possible to include a stop-loss at cost and see if we can push a run to the opening price of 135 once the report comes out.
And I also hate empty talk.
That’s why I’ve been trading on the live market.
The $SPCX earnings report hasn’t been released yet, but the adjustment last night just pulled back to the order levels I warned about.
Now it’s completely possible to include a stop-loss at cost and see if we can push a run to the opening price of 135 once the report comes out.
灯塔说
·
--
Tomorrow there is a SpaceX Q2 earnings report.
It will also be the company’s first earnings report since its IPO.
Because the current price is far from the issue price of 135,
I’m more hopeful that the earnings report will meet expectations.
Whether or not you want to believe in another round of Elon Musk...
I still placed a long order at 109.8.
$SPCX
It will also be the company’s first earnings report since its IPO.
Because the current price is far from the issue price of 135,
I’m more hopeful that the earnings report will meet expectations.
Whether or not you want to believe in another round of Elon Musk...
I still placed a long order at 109.8.
$SPCX
Verified
Tomorrow there is a SpaceX Q2 earnings report.
It will also be the company’s first earnings report since its IPO.
Because the current price is far from the issue price of 135,
I’m more hopeful that the earnings report will meet expectations.
Whether or not you want to believe in another round of Elon Musk...
I still placed a long order at 109.8.
$SPCX
It will also be the company’s first earnings report since its IPO.
Because the current price is far from the issue price of 135,
I’m more hopeful that the earnings report will meet expectations.
Whether or not you want to believe in another round of Elon Musk...
I still placed a long order at 109.8.
$SPCX
At this stage, the only ones who can survive are old “suckers”
I don’t understand why they still like listening to those who peddle big dreams to make a few hundred points—when ETH earns just 10–20 points and they get excited and shout “I made it big!”
Aren’t they completely stupid?
If you can actually make money, that would be strange.
I don’t understand why they still like listening to those who peddle big dreams to make a few hundred points—when ETH earns just 10–20 points and they get excited and shout “I made it big!”
Aren’t they completely stupid?
If you can actually make money, that would be strange.
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