At this stage of the market, the real question is simple
Who continues to buy discreetly on the downside every day?
No big moves on my part. Just discipline and DCA.
$5 per day. Consistently and for the long term.
At the same time, I've started positioning myself through my Roth IRA, allocating funds to Bitcoin-focused ETFs. Step by step. I'm building my exposure without letting myself be influenced by the noise around me.
Slow accumulation is always revealing.
Are there others who are following this approach?
And soon, this strategy could become even more accessible.
Spot trading is expected to open on AZX, which means that daily accumulation could be done directly on the platform.
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare #bitcoin
$BTC , 10 numbers that matter
Price: $67,125
Trend value: $123,236
Discount: -45.5%
Z-score: -0.87 (statistically inexpensive)
Power-law R²: 0.961 (great fit)
Reversion half-life: ~4.5 months (~$107K)
Best forward signal horizon: 18 month (~$200K)
548d correlation (non-overlap): r = -0.786, R² = 0.617
BTC/IGV beta: ~2.0 (BTC 2X IGV, R^2~90%)
Gamma flip: $67,801 (near spot)
Fixed supply sets the structure.
Liquidity sets the path.
Beta sets the magnitude.
Structure is intact, liquidity is the accelerator, and BTC is still trading at a large discount to its long-run trend.
Important Observation: $BTC
Notice how every time we print a capitulation wick, price often takes weeks, sometimes even months to revisit that low.
This isn’t just technical. It’s largely psychological.
By this stage, most participants who were long have already been wiped out. Liquidity dries up. The market becomes thinner and easier to move. As mentioned before, this type of movement is heavily algorithm driven and rooted in psychology.
Right now, most people are:
Waiting for a sweep of the capitulation wick low.
Waiting for a retest to enter shorts.
After a move like this, fear dominates. Participants are still emotionally anchored to the previous drop, hesitant, defensive, and expecting further downside. That collective paranoia is exactly what creates the next setup.
After a capitulation wick, we often see:
A strong recovery
A pullback designed to trap bottom shorters
Then a push to sweep the external range highs
In this case, the external range highs sit around 71K, with the mid range liquidity pocket between 64–66K.
When fear is elevated and positioning is defensive, the path of most frustration is usually up, at least before any larger structural decision is made.
Trend still matters. But so does understanding where the crowd is leaning.