At this stage of the market, the real question is simple
Who continues to buy discreetly on the downside every day?
No big moves on my part. Just discipline and DCA.
$5 per day. Consistently and for the long term.
At the same time, I've started positioning myself through my Roth IRA, allocating funds to Bitcoin-focused ETFs. Step by step. I'm building my exposure without letting myself be influenced by the noise around me.
Slow accumulation is always revealing.
Are there others who are following this approach?
And soon, this strategy could become even more accessible.
Spot trading is expected to open on AZX, which means that daily accumulation could be done directly on the platform.
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare #bitcoin
$BTC , 10 numbers that matter
Price: $67,125
Trend value: $123,236
Discount: -45.5%
Z-score: -0.87 (statistically inexpensive)
Power-law R²: 0.961 (great fit)
Reversion half-life: ~4.5 months (~$107K)
Best forward signal horizon: 18 month (~$200K)
548d correlation (non-overlap): r = -0.786, R² = 0.617
BTC/IGV beta: ~2.0 (BTC 2X IGV, R^2~90%)
Gamma flip: $67,801 (near spot)
Fixed supply sets the structure.
Liquidity sets the path.
Beta sets the magnitude.
Structure is intact, liquidity is the accelerator, and BTC is still trading at a large discount to its long-run trend.
Important Observation: $BTC
Notice how every time we print a capitulation wick, price often takes weeks, sometimes even months to revisit that low.
This isn’t just technical. It’s largely psychological.
By this stage, most participants who were long have already been wiped out. Liquidity dries up. The market becomes thinner and easier to move. As mentioned before, this type of movement is heavily algorithm driven and rooted in psychology.
Right now, most people are:
Waiting for a sweep of the capitulation wick low.
Waiting for a retest to enter shorts.
After a move like this, fear dominates. Participants are still emotionally anchored to the previous drop, hesitant, defensive, and expecting further downside. That collective paranoia is exactly what creates the next setup.
After a capitulation wick, we often see:
A strong recovery
A pullback designed to trap bottom shorters
Then a push to sweep the external range highs
In this case, the external range highs sit around 71K, with the mid range liquidity pocket between 64–66K.
When fear is elevated and positioning is defensive, the path of most frustration is usually up, at least before any larger structural decision is made.
Trend still matters. But so does understanding where the crowd is leaning.
$BTC
Today is the 11th, a double confluence overlap with the 14th.
As mentioned before, over the past 11 instances we’ve dropped 7 out of 11 times around these dates. The key isn’t just the date itself though, it’s the price action leading into it. As you can see, BTC is down -3% following the 11th.
Almost every pump into the 14th reversed because price pushed higher into that pivot. In fact, 5 out of the 7 times we pumped into the 14th, we saw a reversal.
What’s different this time is that we’re dumping into the 14th pivot instead of pumping into it.
That shift in dynamic matters. If we’re dropping into the pivot rather than pumping into it, the probability structure changes. Instead of further downside, there’s a real case for upside following the 14th.
With sentiment turning heavily bearish into this area, shorting here doesn’t make much sense. The better approach may be patience, sit on the sidelines and look for longs into the pivot to catch a potential upside move. (Given structure supports it)
That said… trend is your friend.
💫💖🌹 Comme promis, @MirandaHallick HUPX
@Square-Creator-fc781ccf8f63a
Bonsoir,
Attention ⚠️ ce que tu décris ressemble fortement à une arnaque.
Une vraie plateforme légitime ne demande jamais de payer ou de rajouter de l’argent pour pouvoir retirer tes propres fonds. Si quelqu’un te dit que tu dois payer des “frais”, “taxes”, “déblocage” ou autre avant de récupérer ton argent, c’est un énorme drapeau rouge 🚩
Ne renvoie plus d’argent.
Ne partage plus de documents personnels.
Ne donne pas d’accès à ton téléphone ou à ton compte bancaire.
Si tu as déjà envoyé de l’argent, contacte immédiatement ta banque pour signaler une fraude.
Malheureusement, beaucoup de FAUX COURTIERS utilisent les réseaux sociaux pour piéger les gens avec des promesses de gains faciles.
Protège-toi 💙 L’argent facile en ligne n’existe pas.
Bienveillament ✨️
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫