$SOL (per request)
Current price: around $78–79 USD (below $80 after a weak bounce from the $67–70 lows).
Take a look: the bearish structure is still intact. Lower highs, lower lows, price trading below the descending trendline. No real strength it’s just chop inside a wide range, but the overall bias remains down.
Key zones I see:
Immediate support: $76-78 (24h low). If that breaks, next stop is $70-67 (classic liquidity hunt, long stops getting taken).
Psychological level: $80. If that breaks, we could breathe toward $90-97. But honestly? Unlikely without massive volume.
Resistance: $82–85 (recent rejection), then $90-100 (major wall). If price reaches there, it’s probably just to sweep shorts before another dump.
Macro view:
We’re still inside the “box” that was mentioned late 2025, 10-20% bounces inside it, but if $70 breaks to the downside, SOL is done. We’re far from that scenario for now, but sentiment is fragile.
No hopium: 75% of the time we’re ranging, with fast impulses. Right now, this is a dead range. No forced scalping, wait for a clear setup (low sweep + reversal candle).
$BTC
Low Price, High Opportunity (EOY ~$160K)
• Spot: $66.3K
• Power-law fair value: $123.4K
• Gap: -$57.1K (-46.3%)
• Z-score: -0.89 (oversold)
• Mean-reversion half-life: 4.4 months (~$107K)
• Strongest predictive horizon: 18 months ($195K)
• 18 month signal: r = -0.7857, R² = 0.6174, p = 0.0121 (strong)
Most important number: -46.3% discount to trend.
Gamma Flip price: $68,132
13 Feb: $63M (20.9%) → immediate pin release
27 Feb: $64M (21.2%) → second major release wave
Combined by Feb 27: $152M (50.5%)
Historically large deviations mean-revert.
Short term: volatile.
Medium/long term: bullish, reducing the gap