$BTC
Low Price, High Opportunity (EOY ~$160K)
• Spot: $66.3K
• Power-law fair value: $123.4K
• Gap: -$57.1K (-46.3%)
• Z-score: -0.89 (oversold)
• Mean-reversion half-life: 4.4 months (~$107K)
• Strongest predictive horizon: 18 months ($195K)
• 18 month signal: r = -0.7857, R² = 0.6174, p = 0.0121 (strong)
Most important number: -46.3% discount to trend.
Gamma Flip price: $68,132
13 Feb: $63M (20.9%) → immediate pin release
27 Feb: $64M (21.2%) → second major release wave
Combined by Feb 27: $152M (50.5%)
Historically large deviations mean-revert.
Short term: volatile.
Medium/long term: bullish, reducing the gap
$BTC : the numbers that matter
Most important short term number
$65,445 (gamma flip)
Below $65,445
Dealer hedging can reinforce downside.
Above $65,445
Short-term structure improves.
Short-term levels
$70,000: call wall
$65,000: put wall (key support)
18.6%: gamma expires Feb 13 (pin-release)
Lead signal
IGV → BTC: p=0.003, 2-day lead (liquidity leads price)
Power Law:
~4.5 months: $110K
Best forward signal horizon: 18 month (~$200K)
Short term: gamma + liquidity (IGV/HYG)
Medium to long term: bullish
$BTC : the numbers that matter
Most important short term number
$65,745 (gamma flip)
Below $65,745
Dealer hedging can reinforce downside.
Above $65,745
Short-term structure improves.
Short-term levels
$70,000: call wall
$65,000: put wall (key support)
18.6%: gamma expires Feb 13 (pin-release)
Lead signal
IGV → BTC: p=0.003, 2-day lead (liquidity leads price)
Power Law:
~4.5 months: $110K
Best forward signal horizon: 18 month (~$200K)
Short term: gamma + liquidity (IGV/HYG)
Medium to long term: bullish