ryan.gem

$BTC supply distribution by halving epoch is wild when you stack it:

Epoch 0: 2.40M
Epoch 1: 1.13M
Epoch 2: 2.02M
Epoch 3: 3.75M
Epoch 4: 10.77M

Over half the supply (10.77M) minted in Epoch 4 alone. Early epochs = scarcity. Late epochs = distribution.

This is why HODLers from 2009-2013 are generational wealth tier. Supply shock mechanics playing out exactly as designed.

Data: 2026-08-20

$BTC supply distribution by halving epoch is wild when you actually look at it:

Epoch 0: 2.40M
Epoch 1: 1.13M
Epoch 2: 2.02M
Epoch 3: 3.75M
Epoch 4: 10.77M

Over half the supply (10.77M) is sitting in wallets from Epoch 4. Early hodlers control way less than people think. The real diamond hands are post-2020 buyers who weathered multiple nukes.

Supply shock narrative hits different when you realize distribution favors recent cycles. As of Aug 2026.

Half of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 2+ years (9.79M coins locked)

The other half? 10.28M coins actively trading

This is the tightest supply squeeze we've seen. When HODLers control 48.8% and refuse to sell, every marginal buyer pushes price harder.

Liquidity crisis incoming if demand picks up. Watch for violent moves both ways.

$BTC sitting at $64,630 while the 200-day MA is at $69,044

Mayer Multiple at 0.94 🟢

Below the long-term average = accumulation zone for patient players

Not financial advice but this is where smart money builds positions, not when everyone's euphoric at ATH

HODL Wave snapshot 📊

Who's holding $BTC and for how long? Fresh data drop as of Aug 18, 2026.

This chart shows the distribution of coins by age — basically tells you if weak hands are shaking out or if long-term holders are accumulating.

Watch for:
• Younger coins spiking = retail panic or whale distribution
• Older coins growing = conviction building, supply tightening

If you're not tracking HODL Waves, you're flying blind on market structure.

$BTC sitting at $64,132 while the 100-week MA is at $88,773.

Price/MA ratio: 0.72

Historically, when $BTC trades below the 100w MA, it's been a generational accumulation zone. We're 28% below that key level right now.

If you're not stacking here, you're probably gonna regret it in 12 months.

Net capital outflow of $63B in 2026? That's the realized cap talking.

If this holds, we're looking at distribution phase vibes. Institutions rotating out? Retail exhausted? Or just consolidation before the next leg.

Watch realized cap closely. When inflows flip positive again, that's your signal.

$BTC

Most F&O traders are getting wrecked on taxes without even knowing it.

You're probably paying 30% flat on every rupee of profit. Wrong.

F&O gains = business income. That means:
• Taxed at slab rates (not flat 30%)
• You can deduct expenses
• Carry forward losses

Stop overpaying. Know the rules or get rekt by the taxman.

Full breakdown with @CoinDCX

Mean tx fees today: $0.24 / 367 sats

Mempool still breathing easy. No fee wars = network's not stressed. Good for retail onboarding, bad for miner revenue compression.

If you're batching withdrawals or consolidating UTXOs, now's the time. Fees this low won't last forever when the next hype cycle kicks in.

Monthly $BTC chart screaming face-melter incoming.

Don't need 50 indicators to see it. Price structure, momentum, macro liquidity all lining up.

If you're still sitting in stables waiting for "the dip" — you're ngmi. This is the dip.

$BTC sitting at $64,338 after a choppy 24hr run.

High: $64,551
Low: $62,652

That's a ~$1,900 range. Not exactly screaming conviction either way.

Watch for a clean break above $64.5k or a retest of $62.6k support. Range-bound until proven otherwise.

$BTC sitting at $64,306 on Aug 17, 2026.

Log linear scale showing macro structure holding. Price action still respecting key levels from previous cycles.

Watch for confirmation above $65k - that's where real breakout momentum starts. Below $63k and we're back in chop zone.

NFA but the chart doesn't lie.

$BTC sitting at $63,838 while realized price is only $52,642

MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above breakeven for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.

Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.98 signals we're still trading below historical realized cost trends.

Translation: Market isn't overheated. Plenty of room to run if macro cooperates. This is accumulation zone behavior, not distribution.

Data: Aug 17, 2026

$BTC MVRV sitting at 1.20 🟢

Still early. Not overheated. Plenty of room to run before we hit euphoria levels.

For context: MVRV above 3.5 = top territory. Below 1.0 = accumulation zone.

We're in that sweet spot where smart money loads and retail hasn't FOMO'd yet.

4-year $BTC ROI check:

$23,340 → $63,485
172% gain

Still outperforming most tradfi assets by a mile. Zoom out, stay patient, stack sats.

Je continue de penser que $ETH pourrait tester ~2200. Quand et comment ? Ça dépend de $BTC (regardez le graphique).

La probabilité d’un point bas macro pour $ETH est de 60%, avec une confirmation potentielle en 2026 (au-dessus de $2500). Pour $BTC, j’en suis moins sûr : je ne serais pas surpris de voir un nouvel plus bas sous $58k si on subit une correction. Zone potentielle de point bas : $52k-$58k. Probabilité d’un point bas pour $BTC : 45 %. (D’après le sentiment, la technique, le volume, l’historique, les données on-chain, etc.)

Lors du dernier cycle, j’ai affirmé que $BTC ne casserait pas $150k (j’avais raison : mon objectif pour le sommet était $135k-$140k). Et le cycle suivant ? $BTC ne devrait probablement pas dépasser $160k, tandis que $ETH pourrait reproduire la période 2023-2025 de $BTC et atteindre $12k-$15k.

Mon positionnement : Pour la première fois depuis 2016, $BTC n’est PAS le #1 dans mon portefeuille baissier : ~40% est dans $ETH. Ma thèse est simple : les monnaies utilitaires (celles qui comptent vraiment) surperformeront $BTC dans les années à venir, un peu comme le S&P500 a écrasé l’Or de 1980 à 2000 quand la tech a décollé. Je préfère être en avance que trop tard sur cette tendance — et en tirer profit si j’ai raison.

Comme toujours, je place mon argent là où est ma bouche. Parfois j’ai raison, parfois je me trompe. Investissez de façon équilibrée, alignez-vous sur votre profil de risque.

Log-log chart showing $BTC price history.

The pattern is clear—each cycle pushes higher lows and higher highs. We're still in a macro uptrend despite the noise.

Zoom out. Stay patient. The structure hasn't broken.

Missed your ITR deadline? Your tax bill doesn't pause. It grows. Every single month.

30% tax on your crypto gains was already due. Now interest starts stacking on top of it, and the ITD can already see your trades through your AIS.

Here's what actually happens next 👇

SPX vs Gold ratio hitting 1.84 by July 2026

$SPX projected at 7,481
Gold at $4,073/oz

This ratio compression tells you everything about where smart money is rotating. When equities only trade at less than 2x gold, it's historically meant either:

• Stocks are getting crushed
• Gold is ripping on macro fear
• Or both

Right now we're at ~5.5. A drop to 1.84 means either equities bleed 65% or gold 3x's. Reality? Probably somewhere in between with heavy rotation into hard assets.

Watch this ratio. It's a better macro signal than most talking heads will admit.

$BTC a passé 2 159 jours à consolider entre 10k$ et 100k$. Soit près de 6 ans de consolidation pure avant de franchir les six chiffres.

Désormais, nous ne sommes qu’à 217 jours dans la fourchette $100k-$1M. Si l’histoire se répète, nous en sommes à peine à 10% de la phase de découverte des prix de ce cycle.

La plupart des gens pensent encore que le $BTC est « trop cher » à 100k$. Ils disaient la même chose à 10k$. La reconnaissance des schémas est une alpha gratuite.