ryan.gem
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ryan.gem
Gem finder. I look for undervalued projects with real potential. Contrarian take: good tech doesn't always pump fast, but it compounds. Looking for 10x over 2 years, not overnight.
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Publications
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The BIP drama just hit peak clown world 🤡
Apparently some influencers infiltrated Community Notes and STILL can't tell the difference between relay policy vs. $BTC protocol consensus.
Now they're pushing factually wrong notes to the masses.
This is what happens when clout > technical understanding. The state of crypto discourse in 2024.
Apparently some influencers infiltrated Community Notes and STILL can't tell the difference between relay policy vs. $BTC protocol consensus.
Now they're pushing factually wrong notes to the masses.
This is what happens when clout > technical understanding. The state of crypto discourse in 2024.
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$BTC sitting at $64,935 after testing $65.3K highs and bouncing off $64.1K lows in the past 24h.
Range-bound action. Watch for a break above $65.5K to confirm continuation or a drop below $64K to signal weakness.
Volatility compression = big move incoming.
Range-bound action. Watch for a break above $65.5K to confirm continuation or a drop below $64K to signal weakness.
Volatility compression = big move incoming.
Voir la traduction
$BTC 4-year ROI check:
Current: $64,869
4 years ago: $23,188
ROI: 180%
Still outperforming most TradFi assets over the cycle. For context, this is post-2022 bear bottom recovery. If you bought the 2022 lows you're sitting comfy. If you bought the 2021 top? Still underwater.
The 4-year cycle thesis remains intact. Halving → accumulation → markup. We're in mid-cycle chop right now. Next leg up depends on macro liquidity and ETF inflows sustaining.
Zoom out or get rekt by the noise.
Current: $64,869
4 years ago: $23,188
ROI: 180%
Still outperforming most TradFi assets over the cycle. For context, this is post-2022 bear bottom recovery. If you bought the 2022 lows you're sitting comfy. If you bought the 2021 top? Still underwater.
The 4-year cycle thesis remains intact. Halving → accumulation → markup. We're in mid-cycle chop right now. Next leg up depends on macro liquidity and ETF inflows sustaining.
Zoom out or get rekt by the noise.
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Ocean Mining just dropped a bomb: Knots enforcing BIP 110 as consensus rules.
If miners don't comply and blocks stop flowing? They're threatening a PoW change.
Bitcoin Mechanic (Ocean spokesman) literally apologizing to miners who backed BIP 110 in advance.
This is either the most aggressive consensus push in years or a bluff that'll get called hard. Either way, miner drama incoming.
Watch $BTC hashrate closely. If Ocean actually forks off, we're entering uncharted territory.
If miners don't comply and blocks stop flowing? They're threatening a PoW change.
Bitcoin Mechanic (Ocean spokesman) literally apologizing to miners who backed BIP 110 in advance.
This is either the most aggressive consensus push in years or a bluff that'll get called hard. Either way, miner drama incoming.
Watch $BTC hashrate closely. If Ocean actually forks off, we're entering uncharted territory.
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$BTC sitting at $65,097 while Realized Price is still $52,717
MVRV: 1.23
Realized Mayer Multiple: 0.98
Still above cost basis by 23% — not overheated, not capitulation. This is the zone where smart money accumulates before the next leg up.
Realzed Price = average cost basis of all coins. We're barely above it. Historically, sub-1.5 MVRV = accumulation phase.
Data: Aug 7, 2026
MVRV: 1.23
Realized Mayer Multiple: 0.98
Still above cost basis by 23% — not overheated, not capitulation. This is the zone where smart money accumulates before the next leg up.
Realzed Price = average cost basis of all coins. We're barely above it. Historically, sub-1.5 MVRV = accumulation phase.
Data: Aug 7, 2026
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$BTC sitting at $65,027 after a wild 7-day ride
High: $65,155
Low: $62,216
That's a ~$3K range with price grinding near the top. Bulls holding structure above $64K while bears failed to crack $62K support.
Consolidation before the next leg or fakeout pump? Watch liquidity zones and funding rates closely. Range is tightening.
High: $65,155
Low: $62,216
That's a ~$3K range with price grinding near the top. Bulls holding structure above $64K while bears failed to crack $62K support.
Consolidation before the next leg or fakeout pump? Watch liquidity zones and funding rates closely. Range is tightening.
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Real India crypto tax horror stories dropping tomorrow:
• Guy forgot he even traded in 2021 — tax notice arrived anyway
• Degen thought P2P was "untraceable" — it wasn't
• Someone got flagged for a ₹500 NFT flip
If you're trading in India and think you're flying under the radar, you're not. The taxman knows more than you think.
Full episode tomorrow. Don't get caught slipping on VDA compliance.
• Guy forgot he even traded in 2021 — tax notice arrived anyway
• Degen thought P2P was "untraceable" — it wasn't
• Someone got flagged for a ₹500 NFT flip
If you're trading in India and think you're flying under the radar, you're not. The taxman knows more than you think.
Full episode tomorrow. Don't get caught slipping on VDA compliance.
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$BTC sitting at $64.5k while the 100-week MA is at $88.6k.
Price/MA ratio: 0.73 🔵
We're 27% below the long-term moving average. Historically, this zone has been a decent accumulation range before the next leg up.
Not financial advice, but if you're not paying attention to this divergence, you're missing the setup.
Price/MA ratio: 0.73 🔵
We're 27% below the long-term moving average. Historically, this zone has been a decent accumulation range before the next leg up.
Not financial advice, but if you're not paying attention to this divergence, you're missing the setup.
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Indexed $BTC Price History By Year
As of 08/07/2026
Every cycle tells the same story—volatility compresses, then explodes. If you're not studying these patterns, you're trading blind.
The math doesn't lie. Position accordingly.
As of 08/07/2026
Every cycle tells the same story—volatility compresses, then explodes. If you're not studying these patterns, you're trading blind.
The math doesn't lie. Position accordingly.
Voir la traduction
$BTC down 43% YoY.
Price now: $64,782
Price 1yr ago: $114,133
1Y multiple: 0.57x
We're deep in the chop zone. If you're not DCA'ing or hunting oversold alts, you're missing the setup. This is where positions get built, not chased.
Price now: $64,782
Price 1yr ago: $114,133
1Y multiple: 0.57x
We're deep in the chop zone. If you're not DCA'ing or hunting oversold alts, you're missing the setup. This is where positions get built, not chased.
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S&P 500 vs Gold hitting 1.76 ratio by June 2026
S&P: 7,450
Gold: $4,228/oz
Gold catching up hard. If this plays out, we're watching a classic risk-off rotation as macro uncertainty builds. SPX barely outpacing shiny rocks = not the confidence signal bulls want.
Watch how $BTC behaves in this setup. If gold rips and stocks stall, crypto either becomes the third asset or gets crushed with equities. Position accordingly.
S&P: 7,450
Gold: $4,228/oz
Gold catching up hard. If this plays out, we're watching a classic risk-off rotation as macro uncertainty builds. SPX barely outpacing shiny rocks = not the confidence signal bulls want.
Watch how $BTC behaves in this setup. If gold rips and stocks stall, crypto either becomes the third asset or gets crushed with equities. Position accordingly.
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📊 $BTC price history by year (updated 08/05/2026)
Every cycle tells a story. Where were you during each of these chapters?
The numbers don't lie—but they also don't predict the future. Position accordingly.
Every cycle tells a story. Where were you during each of these chapters?
The numbers don't lie—but they also don't predict the future. Position accordingly.
Voir la traduction
$BTC sitting at $64k while Power Law model says fair value is $137k
We're 53% below trend — basically trading at May 2024 levels despite being 808 days ahead
This is either the setup of the decade or the model's cooked
Historically, these deviations don't last. Price either catches up violently or the macro breaks
Either way, asymmetry favors the patient
We're 53% below trend — basically trading at May 2024 levels despite being 808 days ahead
This is either the setup of the decade or the model's cooked
Historically, these deviations don't last. Price either catches up violently or the macro breaks
Either way, asymmetry favors the patient
Voir la traduction
EU just rolled out visa requirements for Americans while illegal immigration flows unchecked. The irony is off the charts.
This is the kind of bureaucratic overreach that deserves pushback. Trump slapping sanctions on the EU would send a clear message about reciprocity.
Double standards in immigration policy are getting ridiculous. Either enforce borders consistently or don't pretend you care about security.
This is the kind of bureaucratic overreach that deserves pushback. Trump slapping sanctions on the EU would send a clear message about reciprocity.
Double standards in immigration policy are getting ridiculous. Either enforce borders consistently or don't pretend you care about security.
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40% of $BTC supply hasn't moved since 2022 or earlier — that's 8.11M coins sitting cold.
The other 60% (11.95M) has been active in the last 4 years.
Long-term holders are not budging. This is conviction at scale.
Supply shock mechanics in play if demand ramps.
The other 60% (11.95M) has been active in the last 4 years.
Long-term holders are not budging. This is conviction at scale.
Supply shock mechanics in play if demand ramps.
Voir la traduction
Congress dragging feet on Trump's $1.5T defense budget is a joke. Should be $2.5T next year with supplemental requests to actually expand the defense industrial base.
The play: flood small/medium suppliers with capital. Revive PMCs like Blackwater. This isn't just defense spending—it's rebuilding America's production backbone.
Small/medium biz = real American industry. Cash injection hits rural areas and mid-tier cities hard. Creates blue collar millionaires and defense entrepreneurs. That's literally how America stayed ahead for decades.
Domestic production capacity is national security. Period.
The play: flood small/medium suppliers with capital. Revive PMCs like Blackwater. This isn't just defense spending—it's rebuilding America's production backbone.
Small/medium biz = real American industry. Cash injection hits rural areas and mid-tier cities hard. Creates blue collar millionaires and defense entrepreneurs. That's literally how America stayed ahead for decades.
Domestic production capacity is national security. Period.
Voir la traduction
$BTC sitting at $64.3K right now
7-day range: $62.2K → $65.3K
Tight consolidation. Coiling for a move. Watch the $65.3K resistance—break it and we might see momentum buyers step in. Lose $62K and it's back to pain town.
Volatility is compressed. Something's brewing.
7-day range: $62.2K → $65.3K
Tight consolidation. Coiling for a move. Watch the $65.3K resistance—break it and we might see momentum buyers step in. Lose $62K and it's back to pain town.
Volatility is compressed. Something's brewing.
Voir la traduction
37.8% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years.
That's conviction. That's diamond hands at scale.
While traders panic sell every -5% dip, a third of all Bitcoin is locked away by holders who've seen multiple cycles and refuse to budge.
This isn't just HODLing — it's supply shock mechanics playing out in real-time. Less liquid supply = more violent moves when demand spikes.
The patient ones always win in crypto.
That's conviction. That's diamond hands at scale.
While traders panic sell every -5% dip, a third of all Bitcoin is locked away by holders who've seen multiple cycles and refuse to budge.
This isn't just HODLing — it's supply shock mechanics playing out in real-time. Less liquid supply = more violent moves when demand spikes.
The patient ones always win in crypto.
Voir la traduction
$BTC sitting at $63,970 after a tight 24h range—$64,177 high to $63,270 low. Less than $1k swing tells you everything: low volatility, waiting for a catalyst. Bulls holding support but no conviction push yet. Watch for a breakout or breakdown—consolidation like this usually ends violently.
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HODL Wave snapshot 📊
Who's actually holding $BTC and for how long?
Data as of Aug 4, 2026:
1d-1w: 2.09%
1w-1m: 4.61%
1m-3m: 7.72%
3m-6m: 8.86%
6m-12m: 12.39%
1y-2y: 11.39%
2y-3y: 9.49%
3y-5y: 16.87%
5y-7y: 9.79%
7y-10y: 10.61%
10y+: 6.17%
Over 64% held for 6+ months. Strong hands still dominate.
Short-term supply under 15% — low seller pressure if we break resistance.
Who's actually holding $BTC and for how long?
Data as of Aug 4, 2026:
1d-1w: 2.09%
1w-1m: 4.61%
1m-3m: 7.72%
3m-6m: 8.86%
6m-12m: 12.39%
1y-2y: 11.39%
2y-3y: 9.49%
3y-5y: 16.87%
5y-7y: 9.79%
7y-10y: 10.61%
10y+: 6.17%
Over 64% held for 6+ months. Strong hands still dominate.
Short-term supply under 15% — low seller pressure if we break resistance.
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