Oil cost-push is showing up in the consensus now. More than 500 economists in a Reuters poll published Tuesday raised their 2027 inflation forecasts for 31 of the 50 economies they cover, and they put it down to oil above $100.
Split by country, the US barely moved... over the last three quarterly polls the median 2027 revision is +0.7pp for Britain, +0.5pp for the euro zone and only +0.2pp for the US, so I think forecasters expect more of this oil shock to land in British and European prices than in American ones.
Dec $CL closed 99.90 on Tuesday, back under $100, and this morning FedWatch had a hike today at 9.4% with no cut priced at any meeting out to October 2027. Warsh has named crack spreads as a driver of yields before, so I'm watching whether energy comes up in the presser and whether today's EIA print shows distillate building for a second week.
#Oil #Inflation #Fed #Macro
Split by country, the US barely moved... over the last three quarterly polls the median 2027 revision is +0.7pp for Britain, +0.5pp for the euro zone and only +0.2pp for the US, so I think forecasters expect more of this oil shock to land in British and European prices than in American ones.
Dec $CL closed 99.90 on Tuesday, back under $100, and this morning FedWatch had a hike today at 9.4% with no cut priced at any meeting out to October 2027. Warsh has named crack spreads as a driver of yields before, so I'm watching whether energy comes up in the presser and whether today's EIA print shows distillate building for a second week.
#Oil #Inflation #Fed #Macro