FOMC September, What's The Fed's Next Move?
#FedRateWatch , The FOMC meeting is September 15â16, with the decision due Wednesday, September 16.
đ Current market expectation-OutcomeCurrent expectationđŽ 25 bp rate hike~92%+đĄ Hold~8%đą 25 bp cutVery unlikely
CME FedWatch is currently pricing more than a 92% probability of a hike. Another live prediction market is around 86% for a 25 bp hike, showing that the exact probability varies by market, but the direction is very clear: a hike is now the overwhelming base case.
Three major factors:-August CPI remained high at 3.4% YoY, while core CPI was still elevated. Oil has moved above $105, creating additional inflation pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, indicating very tight financial conditions and significant inflation/fiscal concerns.
Potential reaction: BTC â â ETH â â ALTCOINS â
Especially dangerous for low-liquidity altcoins.
đŻ My current crypto bias-Based purely on the macro setup before the decision: Fed bias: đŽ Hawkish, Short-term BTC bias: đŽ Bearish/volatile, Altcoin bias: đŽ Higher downside risk
Best strategy: Wait for the FOMC volatility rather than chase the first 1-minute candle.
BTC / Crypto impact: Short-term bearish bias â ïž
As of Sept. 15, 2026, markets are heavily positioned for a 25 bp Fed hike, with roughly 93% probability in recent market pricing. Treasury yields are around 5%, which is generally negative for high-risk assets like crypto.
My scenario map for BTC:FOMC outcomeBTC reactionBias25 bp hike + hawkish Powell/WarshStrong selling / downside continuationđŽ Bearish25 bp hike + dovish guidanceShort squeeze / relief rallyđą BullishNo hike / surprise holdLikely sharp initial BTC rallyđą Strong bullishHike + indication of another hike in Dec.Strongest bearish scenariođŽ Very bearish
The important point: the 25 bp hike itself is already largely priced in. The bigger move will probably come from the dot plot and Warsh's comments about future hikes.
#FedRateWatch , The FOMC meeting is September 15â16, with the decision due Wednesday, September 16.
đ Current market expectation-OutcomeCurrent expectationđŽ 25 bp rate hike~92%+đĄ Hold~8%đą 25 bp cutVery unlikely
CME FedWatch is currently pricing more than a 92% probability of a hike. Another live prediction market is around 86% for a 25 bp hike, showing that the exact probability varies by market, but the direction is very clear: a hike is now the overwhelming base case.
Three major factors:-August CPI remained high at 3.4% YoY, while core CPI was still elevated. Oil has moved above $105, creating additional inflation pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, indicating very tight financial conditions and significant inflation/fiscal concerns.
Potential reaction: BTC â â ETH â â ALTCOINS â
Especially dangerous for low-liquidity altcoins.
đŻ My current crypto bias-Based purely on the macro setup before the decision: Fed bias: đŽ Hawkish, Short-term BTC bias: đŽ Bearish/volatile, Altcoin bias: đŽ Higher downside risk
Best strategy: Wait for the FOMC volatility rather than chase the first 1-minute candle.
BTC / Crypto impact: Short-term bearish bias â ïž
As of Sept. 15, 2026, markets are heavily positioned for a 25 bp Fed hike, with roughly 93% probability in recent market pricing. Treasury yields are around 5%, which is generally negative for high-risk assets like crypto.
My scenario map for BTC:FOMC outcomeBTC reactionBias25 bp hike + hawkish Powell/WarshStrong selling / downside continuationđŽ Bearish25 bp hike + dovish guidanceShort squeeze / relief rallyđą BullishNo hike / surprise holdLikely sharp initial BTC rallyđą Strong bullishHike + indication of another hike in Dec.Strongest bearish scenariođŽ Very bearish
The important point: the 25 bp hike itself is already largely priced in. The bigger move will probably come from the dot plot and Warsh's comments about future hikes.