$BTC at $10K?
Mike McGlone thinks it’s possible, but only if the stock market takes a serious hit.
This is a pretty extreme bearish scenario, and the key word is “if.” McGlone isn’t saying Bitcoin is heading to $10K right now.
His argument is that a prolonged 20% drawdown in the S&P 500 could drag Bitcoin much lower, potentially toward $10,000.
That sounds extreme when $BTC is still around $78K.
At around $78K today, a move to $10K would mean roughly an 87% collapse.
I wouldn’t treat McGlone’s $10K target as a base-case forecast as he has always said the same thing over the years.
But the correlating argument is worth thinking about: if equities suffer a serious drawdown, does Bitcoin finally decouple, or does it get dragged down with everything else?
Bitcoin is still behaving like a high-beta risk asset during major market stress, despite years of arguments that it should trade more like digital gold.
Bitcoin may have matured as an asset, but it hasn’t completely detached itself from traditional risk markets.
If stocks enter a real risk-off event, BTC could still get treated like a high-beta risk asset rather than the safe haven many expect it to become.
Even at that, I don't think $10K is the base case.
But the fact that BTC could still be this sensitive to a major equity drawdown is something investors shouldn't ignore.
Mike McGlone thinks it’s possible, but only if the stock market takes a serious hit.
This is a pretty extreme bearish scenario, and the key word is “if.” McGlone isn’t saying Bitcoin is heading to $10K right now.
His argument is that a prolonged 20% drawdown in the S&P 500 could drag Bitcoin much lower, potentially toward $10,000.
That sounds extreme when $BTC is still around $78K.
At around $78K today, a move to $10K would mean roughly an 87% collapse.
I wouldn’t treat McGlone’s $10K target as a base-case forecast as he has always said the same thing over the years.
But the correlating argument is worth thinking about: if equities suffer a serious drawdown, does Bitcoin finally decouple, or does it get dragged down with everything else?
Bitcoin is still behaving like a high-beta risk asset during major market stress, despite years of arguments that it should trade more like digital gold.
Bitcoin may have matured as an asset, but it hasn’t completely detached itself from traditional risk markets.
If stocks enter a real risk-off event, BTC could still get treated like a high-beta risk asset rather than the safe haven many expect it to become.
Even at that, I don't think $10K is the base case.
But the fact that BTC could still be this sensitive to a major equity drawdown is something investors shouldn't ignore.
