LTHs remain firmly profitable, with sell pressure near cycle lows. BTC is trading at 1.3× the LTH cost basis ($49.4K), while LTH supply sits near its July peak at 16.35M BTC. Supply has declined on only 2 of the past 15 days, suggesting limited distribution.

ETF demand also snapped back, with +$297.5M in net inflows on Aug. 17 after roughly $385–390M of outflows the previous week.

However, the Coinbase Premium Index remains deeply negative at -0.10, marking 102 consecutive days below zero. This suggests US spot demand is still too weak to support a sustained breakout.

Derivatives remain relatively healthy, with mixed funding and stable open interest, showing no major leverage buildup.

For now, the $62K–$66K range remains favored, with a gradual grind higher possible if ETF inflows continue.

The key confirmation: a sustained recovery in Coinbase Premium alongside consecutive ETF inflow days.

Until then, patience remains warranted.

Written by theophiluspep