Still holding the view that $ETH could test ~$2200. When and how? Depends on $BTC (check the chart).
Macro bottom probability for $ETH sits at 60%, with potential confirmation in 2026 (above $2500). For $BTC, I'm less confident—wouldn't be surprised by a new low sub-$58k if we get a fall correction. Potential bottom zone: $52k-$58k. Bottom probability for $BTC: 45%. (Based on sentiment, technicals, volume, history, on-chain data, etc.)
Last cycle I called $BTC wouldn't break $150k (was right, my target was $135k-$140k for the top). Next cycle? $BTC likely won't pass $160k, while $ETH could mirror $BTC's 2023-2025 run and hit $12k-$15k.
My positioning: For the first time since 2016, $BTC is NOT #1 in my bear market portfolio—~40% is in $ETH instead. My thesis is simple: utility coins (the few that matter) will outperform $BTC in the coming years, similar to how the S&P500 crushed Gold from 1980-2000 when tech took off. I'd rather be early than late on this trend—and capitalize if I'm right.
As always, I put my money where my mouth is. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. Invest balanced, match your risk profile.
Macro bottom probability for $ETH sits at 60%, with potential confirmation in 2026 (above $2500). For $BTC, I'm less confident—wouldn't be surprised by a new low sub-$58k if we get a fall correction. Potential bottom zone: $52k-$58k. Bottom probability for $BTC: 45%. (Based on sentiment, technicals, volume, history, on-chain data, etc.)
Last cycle I called $BTC wouldn't break $150k (was right, my target was $135k-$140k for the top). Next cycle? $BTC likely won't pass $160k, while $ETH could mirror $BTC's 2023-2025 run and hit $12k-$15k.
My positioning: For the first time since 2016, $BTC is NOT #1 in my bear market portfolio—~40% is in $ETH instead. My thesis is simple: utility coins (the few that matter) will outperform $BTC in the coming years, similar to how the S&P500 crushed Gold from 1980-2000 when tech took off. I'd rather be early than late on this trend—and capitalize if I'm right.
As always, I put my money where my mouth is. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. Invest balanced, match your risk profile.