August 17–21, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar 🎯 WEEKLY THEME July CPI eased to 3.4% and core CPI to a five-month low of 2.5%, both in line with expectations. PPI was flat versus +0.2% expected. Combined with the July -23K NFP shock, September hold expectations rose to 64%. This week brings July FOMC minutes and global Flash PMI data. August NFP and CPI remain ahead, making this a positioning week before Jackson Hole. 📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Tuesday – August 18 15:30 TRT — Housing Starts & Building Permits 16:15 TRT — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization These will test whether July’s weakness was limited to employment or reflects broader economic slowing. 09:00 TRT — UK CPI A key signal for whether global disinflation is developing alongside the Fed’s easing signal. Wednesday – August 19 21:00 TRT — FOMC Minutes (July 28–29) The week’s key event. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented for a 25-bp hike. The minutes will show the strength of the internal debate. Because they predate the July -23K NFP shock, markets may view them as backward-looking. Friday – August 21 🌍 Afternoon — Global S&P Flash PMI Package 16:45 TRT — U.S. S&P Global Flash PMI The first major real-time activity data for August. Hiring and price components will show whether labor-market weakness is broadening and whether PPI’s flat reading is continuing. ⚡ CRYPTO & MARKET RISKS FOMC Minutes: Strong dissenting arguments could revive September hike expectations and support the dollar. If Warsh’s data-dependent stance dominates, 64% hold pricing could strengthen, supporting risk assets. But the minutes exclude the NFP shock. Flash PMI: Weak hiring signals would reinforce the slowdown narrative, strengthen September hold expectations and support crypto. Strong PMI could suggest the -23K NFP was temporary noise. A calm but fragile week: low summer liquidity could amplify any surprise in the minutes or PMIs. Jackson Hole (August 27–29) is the next major catalyst. $BTC $XRP