Le Bitcoin pourrait-il vraiment chuter à 20 000 $ ? L’analyste met en garde pour 2027

TheStreet Roundtable · 2026-08-11T14:28:30.000Z

Des startups crypto proposent des prêts sans intérêts qui ne peuvent pas être liquidés (6:25) La plupart des analystes qui suivent le Bitcoin parlent actuellement de creux et de reprise. Alessio Rastani parle, lui, de ce qui vient après le rebond, et le tableau qu’il dresse est nettement plus sombre que celui qui fait consensus. Le trader chevronné et analyste des marchés pense que le Bitcoin est en passe de connaître une reprise à court à moyen terme au cours des trois à six prochains mois. Ensuite, selon lui, les choses se compliquent. Un rebond d’abord, puis la vraie chute Le cadre de Rastani sépare ce qui se passe maintenant de ce qu’il s’attend à voir en 2027.

Crypto Startup Pitches Interest-Free Loans That Can't Be Liquidated (6:25)
Most analysts covering Bitcoin right now are talking about bottoms and recovery. Alessio Rastani is talking about what comes after the bounce, and the picture he's painting is considerably darker than the consensus.
The veteran trader and market analyst believes Bitcoin is set for a short to medium-term rally over the next three to six months. Then, in his view, things get difficult.
A bounce first, then the real drop
Rastani's framework separates what's happening now from what he expects in 2027.
He sees Bitcoin holding key support levels in the near term, specifically the 21 and 34 week exponential moving averages, which currently sit near $59,000 and $47,000 respectively.
Related: Bitcoin has never broken this line in 15 years, it is on it right now
As long as Bitcoin stays above $57,000, he believes a meaningful bounce is on the table.
But he's clear that the bounce is not the story. "I think we're going to see a temporary bounce before we see another decline," he said in a recent interview.
$20,000 by 2027, here's the math
Using an Elliott Wave count that traces Bitcoin's price history back to 2009, Rastani and analyst Bob Proctor, who he credits with the framework, argue that Bitcoin completed a five-wave bull cycle at the $126,000 all-time high.
Under Elliott Wave Theory, a completed five-wave structure is typically followed by a correction back to the prior Wave 4. For Bitcoin, that level sits around $20,000 to $25,000.
Proctor takes an even more bearish view, targeting $3,500, the Wave 4 from 2018. Rastani stops short of that. "$20,000 to $25,000 by the end of 2027 is my more realistic target," he said.
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The stock market connection
Rastani's Bitcoin thesis is inseparable from his stock market outlook. He expects the S&P 500 to top somewhere between late 2026 and 2027, potentially reaching 8,000 before rolling over into a bear market.
A 50 percent crash from those highs, he said, would drag Bitcoin down alongside it, as it has in every prior cycle.
"I have yet to see any evidence that Bitcoin is not going to follow a crash like the stock market," he said, dismissing the idea that Bitcoin would decouple and act as a safe haven in the next recession.
His long-term view on Bitcoin remains intact, $1 million is possible, he said, but not before 2040 and not before the asset drops to $20,000 first.
Related: If you invested $1,000 in gold, Bitcoin and $TRUMP on Inauguration Day, here is what each is worth today