The $SPY dividend yield just hit 1.04% — an all-time low.
This isn't some quirky stat. It's a signal.
When yields compress this far, it means one of two things: either earnings growth expectations are sky-high, or valuations have gotten stretched to the point where income doesn't matter anymore.
Historically, sub-1.5% yields have shown up near market peaks — 1999, 2021, and now. Not saying we crash tomorrow, but it's worth remembering that dividends used to be the reason people owned stocks. Now they're an afterthought.
If you're chasing price appreciation and ignoring yield entirely, just know you're playing a different game than your grandparents did. And that game has different rules — and different risks.
This isn't some quirky stat. It's a signal.
When yields compress this far, it means one of two things: either earnings growth expectations are sky-high, or valuations have gotten stretched to the point where income doesn't matter anymore.
Historically, sub-1.5% yields have shown up near market peaks — 1999, 2021, and now. Not saying we crash tomorrow, but it's worth remembering that dividends used to be the reason people owned stocks. Now they're an afterthought.
If you're chasing price appreciation and ignoring yield entirely, just know you're playing a different game than your grandparents did. And that game has different rules — and different risks.