Crypto_Paykash
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Crypto_Paykash
Crypto enthusiast | Exploring blockchain and digital assets | Content creator | Writer | CMC KOL.
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$BTC has never recorded three straight green monthly closes during a bear market year (2014, 2018, 2022).
With March and April already closing in the green, history suggests May could break the streak and turn red if the pattern holds.
#TrumpSaysIranConflictHasEnded
With March and April already closing in the green, history suggests May could break the streak and turn red if the pattern holds.
#TrumpSaysIranConflictHasEnded
🇺🇸 ETF Flows: Spot crypto ETFs ended the week with net inflows across the board.
• BTC: +33.79M
• ETH: +103.9M
• $SOL: +7.2M
• $XRP: +8.15M
Capital is continuing to flow into the market, with Ethereum leading the way this week.
Are we starting to see the next wave of momentum, or is this just another short-term bounce?
• BTC: +33.79M
• ETH: +103.9M
• $SOL: +7.2M
• $XRP: +8.15M
Capital is continuing to flow into the market, with Ethereum leading the way this week.
Are we starting to see the next wave of momentum, or is this just another short-term bounce?
Partiellement vrai
This week's FOMC meeting could be a major catalyst for $BTC.
Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable pullback, with Bitcoin dropping around 10% on average over the following week.
We're also trading in a similar price region to last month's meeting, when BTC was around 66K before falling roughly 12% to 58K.
Of course, history doesn't always repeat itself. The May meeting broke the pattern, with Bitcoin rallying instead of selling off.
Still, an 8 out of 9 track record is hard to ignore.
I'll be watching 61K closely. If it holds, BTC could stay within its current range. If it doesn't, another test of the cycle lows becomes much more likely.
The reaction after this FOMC meeting should give us a much clearer picture of what's next.
Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable pullback, with Bitcoin dropping around 10% on average over the following week.
We're also trading in a similar price region to last month's meeting, when BTC was around 66K before falling roughly 12% to 58K.
Of course, history doesn't always repeat itself. The May meeting broke the pattern, with Bitcoin rallying instead of selling off.
Still, an 8 out of 9 track record is hard to ignore.
I'll be watching 61K closely. If it holds, BTC could stay within its current range. If it doesn't, another test of the cycle lows becomes much more likely.
The reaction after this FOMC meeting should give us a much clearer picture of what's next.
$ZEC has now broken cleanly below the 500 level.
This was the scenario I was watching for, with a move back into the 400s becoming increasingly likely once the key 520 support gave way.
The next level I'm watching is the 470–480 liquidity zone. I'd like to see buyers defend this area to avoid a deeper pullback.
480 was the previous breakout level that helped fuel the rally above 540, so it's still one of the strongest areas for bulls to regain control.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, this still looks like a healthy higher low following a strong impulsive move higher.
The next week should provide more clarity on whether this is simply a liquidity reset before another leg up or the beginning of a deeper correction through the 400s.
For now, I still lean bullish on the broader trend, but I want to see how price reacts around 470–480. If that area holds, it could confirm the macro higher-low structure remains intact.
This was the scenario I was watching for, with a move back into the 400s becoming increasingly likely once the key 520 support gave way.
The next level I'm watching is the 470–480 liquidity zone. I'd like to see buyers defend this area to avoid a deeper pullback.
480 was the previous breakout level that helped fuel the rally above 540, so it's still one of the strongest areas for bulls to regain control.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, this still looks like a healthy higher low following a strong impulsive move higher.
The next week should provide more clarity on whether this is simply a liquidity reset before another leg up or the beginning of a deeper correction through the 400s.
For now, I still lean bullish on the broader trend, but I want to see how price reacts around 470–480. If that area holds, it could confirm the macro higher-low structure remains intact.
I'm watching closely for a possible liquidity flush on $BTC here.
Price has now printed what looks like a higher low around 64.5K, right on the rising trendline that's been supporting every higher low since the recent bottom.
That also lines up with a potential compound breakdown setup at the same key level.
As long as the trendline and horizontal support remain intact, I still expect another push toward the range highs around 67K.
If both supports give way, I'd look for a move back into the 63.5K area to sweep liquidity before the next directional move.
This compound breakdown pattern has played out consistently throughout the current range, making this one of the most important structures to watch right now.
Price has now printed what looks like a higher low around 64.5K, right on the rising trendline that's been supporting every higher low since the recent bottom.
That also lines up with a potential compound breakdown setup at the same key level.
As long as the trendline and horizontal support remain intact, I still expect another push toward the range highs around 67K.
If both supports give way, I'd look for a move back into the 63.5K area to sweep liquidity before the next directional move.
This compound breakdown pattern has played out consistently throughout the current range, making this one of the most important structures to watch right now.
$ETH is testing a key Q3 resistance zone after staging a three-wave recovery from its June low.
As long as price stays below $2,226, the broader bearish outlook remains intact. A decisive break above that level would be the first sign that the current market structure may be shifting.
As long as price stays below $2,226, the broader bearish outlook remains intact. A decisive break above that level would be the first sign that the current market structure may be shifting.
$ZEC is trying to avoid a deeper breakdown by consolidating above the 500 liquidity pivot.
That level was my downside target after losing 520, which is why I opened a low-leverage short as a hedge while keeping my long from 425.
So far, there are early signs ZEC could be forming a macro higher low, although I still think a move below 500 is possible before a stronger recovery.
A reclaim of 530 would shift the chart back to neutral, while a break above 550 would invalidate the current bearish structure. That's where I'd close the hedge and start adding to my long position again.
For now, I'm staying patient. The bigger picture is a potential breakout above 620, but the chart still needs to prove this pullback is just a higher low. If 500 fails, I'll likely exit the remaining long and wait for a better setup.
That level was my downside target after losing 520, which is why I opened a low-leverage short as a hedge while keeping my long from 425.
So far, there are early signs ZEC could be forming a macro higher low, although I still think a move below 500 is possible before a stronger recovery.
A reclaim of 530 would shift the chart back to neutral, while a break above 550 would invalidate the current bearish structure. That's where I'd close the hedge and start adding to my long position again.
For now, I'm staying patient. The bigger picture is a potential breakout above 620, but the chart still needs to prove this pullback is just a higher low. If 500 fails, I'll likely exit the remaining long and wait for a better setup.
What would convince me that 57K was the final $BTC cycle low?
A clean break above 75K would be the first real signal. That's the neckline of the previous double bottom, and reclaiming it would start invalidating the higher-timeframe downtrend.
But price alone isn't enough.
BTC would also need to hold those gains by either continuing higher or consolidating for several months. Time is just as important as the breakout itself.
Right now, I'm still cautious. We haven't seen the kind of capitulation or extended bottoming phase that has marked previous cycle lows, and macro conditions remain uncertain.
57K could end up being the cycle bottom, but until 75K is reclaimed and the move proves itself over time, I see it as a major low, not necessarily the final one.
A clean break above 75K would be the first real signal. That's the neckline of the previous double bottom, and reclaiming it would start invalidating the higher-timeframe downtrend.
But price alone isn't enough.
BTC would also need to hold those gains by either continuing higher or consolidating for several months. Time is just as important as the breakout itself.
Right now, I'm still cautious. We haven't seen the kind of capitulation or extended bottoming phase that has marked previous cycle lows, and macro conditions remain uncertain.
57K could end up being the cycle bottom, but until 75K is reclaimed and the move proves itself over time, I see it as a major low, not necessarily the final one.
🔥 $Hype open interest has climbed to $11.5B, marking its highest level of 2026 and the strongest reading since the October 10 market crash.
Rising open interest suggests more capital is entering the market, making it a key metric to watch as volatility builds.
Rising open interest suggests more capital is entering the market, making it a key metric to watch as volatility builds.
🇺🇸 Spot ETF flows remained positive on July 22, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum attracting fresh capital, while Solana recorded a small net outflow.
• BTC: +68.99M
• ETH: +72.64M
• SOL: -1.27M
BTC and $ETH continue to see steady institutional interest, while $SOL had a relatively modest day of outflows.
• BTC: +68.99M
• ETH: +72.64M
• SOL: -1.27M
BTC and $ETH continue to see steady institutional interest, while $SOL had a relatively modest day of outflows.
$BTC One thing that stands out to me is that we still haven't seen an aggressive wave of new short positions.
During the move toward 67K, Open Interest increased alongside price, suggesting fresh longs were entering the market. That additional positioning helped fuel the rally into resistance.
Since the rejection, Open Interest has eased while contract transfers have also slowed. To me, that suggests we're not seeing a meaningful shift into new bearish bets. Instead, it looks more like the market is flushing out the late longs that chased the breakout.
If BTC can reclaim and hold above 67K with Open Interest expanding again, that would be a much stronger signal that buyers are stepping back in.
Until then, I wouldn't be surprised to see more downside liquidity swept first. Markets often shake out late longs before the next leg higher.
During the move toward 67K, Open Interest increased alongside price, suggesting fresh longs were entering the market. That additional positioning helped fuel the rally into resistance.
Since the rejection, Open Interest has eased while contract transfers have also slowed. To me, that suggests we're not seeing a meaningful shift into new bearish bets. Instead, it looks more like the market is flushing out the late longs that chased the breakout.
If BTC can reclaim and hold above 67K with Open Interest expanding again, that would be a much stronger signal that buyers are stepping back in.
Until then, I wouldn't be surprised to see more downside liquidity swept first. Markets often shake out late longs before the next leg higher.
🔥 $XRP whales have continued accumulating over the past five weeks, increasing their holdings by 2.8% as the price climbed back above $1.16.
Meanwhile, smaller retail wallets have been reducing their positions, according to Santiment.
Meanwhile, smaller retail wallets have been reducing their positions, according to Santiment.
One thing I've noticed throughout this bear market is that every meaningful $BTC relief rally has eventually reached, or briefly pushed above, the Bull Market Support Band.
Right now, that band sits around the $69K–70K area.
If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the 67K daily swing level, I think another test of that zone becomes increasingly likely.
If it fails to reclaim 67K, though, the higher-timeframe resistance remains in control, and the market is likely to stay capped for now.
Right now, that band sits around the $69K–70K area.
If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the 67K daily swing level, I think another test of that zone becomes increasingly likely.
If it fails to reclaim 67K, though, the higher-timeframe resistance remains in control, and the market is likely to stay capped for now.
Vérifié
🔥 Arthur Hayes isn't slowing down. He added another 1,332.5 $ETH to his holdings today, a purchase worth around 2.53 million, extending his recent accumulation streak.
I haven't seen many people mention $ASTER lately, and that's exactly what's making me pay attention again.
Near the top, I shared my view that ASTER was likely headed below $1. As long as traders kept trying to catch the falling knife, the downtrend had plenty of liquidity to feed on, eventually reaching around $0.40.
Now the sentiment has completely flipped.
The same people who were convinced ASTER couldn't fail are now convinced it has no future. That's how market psychology works optimism at the top, despair near the bottom.
I'm not calling a bottom today, but I'm starting to watch it closely. The best opportunities often appear when almost everyone has stopped paying attention.
If the setup is there, I'll be ready. Time will tell.
Near the top, I shared my view that ASTER was likely headed below $1. As long as traders kept trying to catch the falling knife, the downtrend had plenty of liquidity to feed on, eventually reaching around $0.40.
Now the sentiment has completely flipped.
The same people who were convinced ASTER couldn't fail are now convinced it has no future. That's how market psychology works optimism at the top, despair near the bottom.
I'm not calling a bottom today, but I'm starting to watch it closely. The best opportunities often appear when almost everyone has stopped paying attention.
If the setup is there, I'll be ready. Time will tell.
Vérifié
🚨 JUST IN: Hyperliquid is set to introduce permissionless deployment for HIP-4 outcome markets.
To launch a market, deployers will need to stake 500,000 $HYPE , with the rollout beginning on the testnet before expanding further.
To launch a market, deployers will need to stake 500,000 $HYPE , with the rollout beginning on the testnet before expanding further.
$XRP is currently retesting a key short-term support level after its recent pullback.
As long as this support holds, the short-term structure still points to the possibility of another move higher.
From my perspective, the correction looks healthy so far, with room for the next leg up if buyers continue to defend this zone.
As long as this support holds, the short-term structure still points to the possibility of another move higher.
From my perspective, the correction looks healthy so far, with room for the next leg up if buyers continue to defend this zone.
$BTC has been stuck in a range for a while, but what's happening beneath the surface is pretty interesting.
Smaller spot traders have sold around 604M worth of BTC, while mid-sized orders are only slightly negative at roughly $25M.
On the other hand, the largest buyers have accumulated more than 1.4B in positive volume delta, absorbing much of that selling pressure.
That could explain why Bitcoin has continued printing higher lows even after several attempts to push the price down.
It doesn't guarantee a breakout, but if BTC reclaims 64.8K while large buyers keep accumulating, it would suggest the move is backed by real spot demand rather than just short-term momentum.
The key thing to watch is whether that buying starts to fade. If large-order accumulation slows while retail selling picks up again, the range could become much more fragile.
For now, the bigger players still seem willing to buy what smaller participants are selling. That's a trend worth keeping an eye on.
Smaller spot traders have sold around 604M worth of BTC, while mid-sized orders are only slightly negative at roughly $25M.
On the other hand, the largest buyers have accumulated more than 1.4B in positive volume delta, absorbing much of that selling pressure.
That could explain why Bitcoin has continued printing higher lows even after several attempts to push the price down.
It doesn't guarantee a breakout, but if BTC reclaims 64.8K while large buyers keep accumulating, it would suggest the move is backed by real spot demand rather than just short-term momentum.
The key thing to watch is whether that buying starts to fade. If large-order accumulation slows while retail selling picks up again, the range could become much more fragile.
For now, the bigger players still seem willing to buy what smaller participants are selling. That's a trend worth keeping an eye on.
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