Crypto_Paykash
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Crypto_Paykash
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$BTC has never recorded three straight green monthly closes during a bear market year (2014, 2018, 2022).
With March and April already closing in the green, history suggests May could break the streak and turn red if the pattern holds.
#TrumpSaysIranConflictHasEnded
With March and April already closing in the green, history suggests May could break the streak and turn red if the pattern holds.
#TrumpSaysIranConflictHasEnded
Partiellement vrai
🚨 UPDATE: According to CryptoRank, BEAT leads this week's token unlocks with $81.66M worth of tokens set to be released. It's followed by $SUI, BTW, $ENA, EIGEN, ZAMA, and KITE.
The biggest clue that a deeper $BTC pullback was coming was the change in price behavior.
Earlier long-liquidation flushes within this range were consistently absorbed. Open Interest reset, support held, and BTC went on to print new highs.
This time was different.
Longs were liquidated and OI dropped, but instead of bouncing back strongly, BTC only managed a lower high before losing the 63.7K level.
The liquidations themselves weren't the key signal.
The real warning was that price couldn't recover after the leverage had been flushed out.
Trading doesn't always have to be complicated.
Sometimes, it's simply about recognizing when the pattern changes.
Earlier long-liquidation flushes within this range were consistently absorbed. Open Interest reset, support held, and BTC went on to print new highs.
This time was different.
Longs were liquidated and OI dropped, but instead of bouncing back strongly, BTC only managed a lower high before losing the 63.7K level.
The liquidations themselves weren't the key signal.
The real warning was that price couldn't recover after the leverage had been flushed out.
Trading doesn't always have to be complicated.
Sometimes, it's simply about recognizing when the pattern changes.
It's time for $ZEC to show its hand.
Price reacted well from the $470–480 liquidity zone, and that bounce has now established the current medium-to-high timeframe swing pivot.
For the bullish structure to strengthen, I'd like to see ZEC hold above $480, print a higher low, and then reclaim $510. That would be the confirmation I'd look for before considering long positions with lower risk.
If the $470–480 region fails to hold, it would signal a significant break of market structure across multiple timeframes.
In that scenario, the macro swing low is likely not in yet, and a move toward the $450 area becomes the more probable outcome.
Price reacted well from the $470–480 liquidity zone, and that bounce has now established the current medium-to-high timeframe swing pivot.
For the bullish structure to strengthen, I'd like to see ZEC hold above $480, print a higher low, and then reclaim $510. That would be the confirmation I'd look for before considering long positions with lower risk.
If the $470–480 region fails to hold, it would signal a significant break of market structure across multiple timeframes.
In that scenario, the macro swing low is likely not in yet, and a move toward the $450 area becomes the more probable outcome.
$BTC is stacking liquidity on both sides of the current range, which is why I'm staying patient for now.
If price reclaims 65.5K, the next likely target is the cluster of roughly $500M in short liquidity sitting between 66K and 66.8K.
On the flip side, losing 64.2K could open the door for a sweep of the $200M in long liquidity below.
Until either level gives way, Bitcoin is still trading in a range.
Expect more sideways price action until the market clears one side and finds its next direction.
If price reclaims 65.5K, the next likely target is the cluster of roughly $500M in short liquidity sitting between 66K and 66.8K.
On the flip side, losing 64.2K could open the door for a sweep of the $200M in long liquidity below.
Until either level gives way, Bitcoin is still trading in a range.
Expect more sideways price action until the market clears one side and finds its next direction.
🇺🇸 ETF Flows: Spot crypto ETFs ended the week with net inflows across the board.
• BTC: +33.79M
• ETH: +103.9M
• $SOL: +7.2M
• $XRP: +8.15M
Capital is continuing to flow into the market, with Ethereum leading the way this week.
Are we starting to see the next wave of momentum, or is this just another short-term bounce?
• BTC: +33.79M
• ETH: +103.9M
• $SOL: +7.2M
• $XRP: +8.15M
Capital is continuing to flow into the market, with Ethereum leading the way this week.
Are we starting to see the next wave of momentum, or is this just another short-term bounce?
Partiellement vrai
This week's FOMC meeting could be a major catalyst for $BTC.
Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable pullback, with Bitcoin dropping around 10% on average over the following week.
We're also trading in a similar price region to last month's meeting, when BTC was around 66K before falling roughly 12% to 58K.
Of course, history doesn't always repeat itself. The May meeting broke the pattern, with Bitcoin rallying instead of selling off.
Still, an 8 out of 9 track record is hard to ignore.
I'll be watching 61K closely. If it holds, BTC could stay within its current range. If it doesn't, another test of the cycle lows becomes much more likely.
The reaction after this FOMC meeting should give us a much clearer picture of what's next.
Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable pullback, with Bitcoin dropping around 10% on average over the following week.
We're also trading in a similar price region to last month's meeting, when BTC was around 66K before falling roughly 12% to 58K.
Of course, history doesn't always repeat itself. The May meeting broke the pattern, with Bitcoin rallying instead of selling off.
Still, an 8 out of 9 track record is hard to ignore.
I'll be watching 61K closely. If it holds, BTC could stay within its current range. If it doesn't, another test of the cycle lows becomes much more likely.
The reaction after this FOMC meeting should give us a much clearer picture of what's next.
$ZEC has now broken cleanly below the 500 level.
This was the scenario I was watching for, with a move back into the 400s becoming increasingly likely once the key 520 support gave way.
The next level I'm watching is the 470–480 liquidity zone. I'd like to see buyers defend this area to avoid a deeper pullback.
480 was the previous breakout level that helped fuel the rally above 540, so it's still one of the strongest areas for bulls to regain control.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, this still looks like a healthy higher low following a strong impulsive move higher.
The next week should provide more clarity on whether this is simply a liquidity reset before another leg up or the beginning of a deeper correction through the 400s.
For now, I still lean bullish on the broader trend, but I want to see how price reacts around 470–480. If that area holds, it could confirm the macro higher-low structure remains intact.
This was the scenario I was watching for, with a move back into the 400s becoming increasingly likely once the key 520 support gave way.
The next level I'm watching is the 470–480 liquidity zone. I'd like to see buyers defend this area to avoid a deeper pullback.
480 was the previous breakout level that helped fuel the rally above 540, so it's still one of the strongest areas for bulls to regain control.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, this still looks like a healthy higher low following a strong impulsive move higher.
The next week should provide more clarity on whether this is simply a liquidity reset before another leg up or the beginning of a deeper correction through the 400s.
For now, I still lean bullish on the broader trend, but I want to see how price reacts around 470–480. If that area holds, it could confirm the macro higher-low structure remains intact.
I'm watching closely for a possible liquidity flush on $BTC here.
Price has now printed what looks like a higher low around 64.5K, right on the rising trendline that's been supporting every higher low since the recent bottom.
That also lines up with a potential compound breakdown setup at the same key level.
As long as the trendline and horizontal support remain intact, I still expect another push toward the range highs around 67K.
If both supports give way, I'd look for a move back into the 63.5K area to sweep liquidity before the next directional move.
This compound breakdown pattern has played out consistently throughout the current range, making this one of the most important structures to watch right now.
Price has now printed what looks like a higher low around 64.5K, right on the rising trendline that's been supporting every higher low since the recent bottom.
That also lines up with a potential compound breakdown setup at the same key level.
As long as the trendline and horizontal support remain intact, I still expect another push toward the range highs around 67K.
If both supports give way, I'd look for a move back into the 63.5K area to sweep liquidity before the next directional move.
This compound breakdown pattern has played out consistently throughout the current range, making this one of the most important structures to watch right now.
$ETH is testing a key Q3 resistance zone after staging a three-wave recovery from its June low.
As long as price stays below $2,226, the broader bearish outlook remains intact. A decisive break above that level would be the first sign that the current market structure may be shifting.
As long as price stays below $2,226, the broader bearish outlook remains intact. A decisive break above that level would be the first sign that the current market structure may be shifting.
$ZEC is trying to avoid a deeper breakdown by consolidating above the 500 liquidity pivot.
That level was my downside target after losing 520, which is why I opened a low-leverage short as a hedge while keeping my long from 425.
So far, there are early signs ZEC could be forming a macro higher low, although I still think a move below 500 is possible before a stronger recovery.
A reclaim of 530 would shift the chart back to neutral, while a break above 550 would invalidate the current bearish structure. That's where I'd close the hedge and start adding to my long position again.
For now, I'm staying patient. The bigger picture is a potential breakout above 620, but the chart still needs to prove this pullback is just a higher low. If 500 fails, I'll likely exit the remaining long and wait for a better setup.
That level was my downside target after losing 520, which is why I opened a low-leverage short as a hedge while keeping my long from 425.
So far, there are early signs ZEC could be forming a macro higher low, although I still think a move below 500 is possible before a stronger recovery.
A reclaim of 530 would shift the chart back to neutral, while a break above 550 would invalidate the current bearish structure. That's where I'd close the hedge and start adding to my long position again.
For now, I'm staying patient. The bigger picture is a potential breakout above 620, but the chart still needs to prove this pullback is just a higher low. If 500 fails, I'll likely exit the remaining long and wait for a better setup.
What would convince me that 57K was the final $BTC cycle low?
A clean break above 75K would be the first real signal. That's the neckline of the previous double bottom, and reclaiming it would start invalidating the higher-timeframe downtrend.
But price alone isn't enough.
BTC would also need to hold those gains by either continuing higher or consolidating for several months. Time is just as important as the breakout itself.
Right now, I'm still cautious. We haven't seen the kind of capitulation or extended bottoming phase that has marked previous cycle lows, and macro conditions remain uncertain.
57K could end up being the cycle bottom, but until 75K is reclaimed and the move proves itself over time, I see it as a major low, not necessarily the final one.
A clean break above 75K would be the first real signal. That's the neckline of the previous double bottom, and reclaiming it would start invalidating the higher-timeframe downtrend.
But price alone isn't enough.
BTC would also need to hold those gains by either continuing higher or consolidating for several months. Time is just as important as the breakout itself.
Right now, I'm still cautious. We haven't seen the kind of capitulation or extended bottoming phase that has marked previous cycle lows, and macro conditions remain uncertain.
57K could end up being the cycle bottom, but until 75K is reclaimed and the move proves itself over time, I see it as a major low, not necessarily the final one.
🔥 $Hype open interest has climbed to $11.5B, marking its highest level of 2026 and the strongest reading since the October 10 market crash.
Rising open interest suggests more capital is entering the market, making it a key metric to watch as volatility builds.
Rising open interest suggests more capital is entering the market, making it a key metric to watch as volatility builds.
🇺🇸 Spot ETF flows remained positive on July 22, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum attracting fresh capital, while Solana recorded a small net outflow.
• BTC: +68.99M
• ETH: +72.64M
• SOL: -1.27M
BTC and $ETH continue to see steady institutional interest, while $SOL had a relatively modest day of outflows.
• BTC: +68.99M
• ETH: +72.64M
• SOL: -1.27M
BTC and $ETH continue to see steady institutional interest, while $SOL had a relatively modest day of outflows.
$BTC One thing that stands out to me is that we still haven't seen an aggressive wave of new short positions.
During the move toward 67K, Open Interest increased alongside price, suggesting fresh longs were entering the market. That additional positioning helped fuel the rally into resistance.
Since the rejection, Open Interest has eased while contract transfers have also slowed. To me, that suggests we're not seeing a meaningful shift into new bearish bets. Instead, it looks more like the market is flushing out the late longs that chased the breakout.
If BTC can reclaim and hold above 67K with Open Interest expanding again, that would be a much stronger signal that buyers are stepping back in.
Until then, I wouldn't be surprised to see more downside liquidity swept first. Markets often shake out late longs before the next leg higher.
During the move toward 67K, Open Interest increased alongside price, suggesting fresh longs were entering the market. That additional positioning helped fuel the rally into resistance.
Since the rejection, Open Interest has eased while contract transfers have also slowed. To me, that suggests we're not seeing a meaningful shift into new bearish bets. Instead, it looks more like the market is flushing out the late longs that chased the breakout.
If BTC can reclaim and hold above 67K with Open Interest expanding again, that would be a much stronger signal that buyers are stepping back in.
Until then, I wouldn't be surprised to see more downside liquidity swept first. Markets often shake out late longs before the next leg higher.
🔥 $XRP whales have continued accumulating over the past five weeks, increasing their holdings by 2.8% as the price climbed back above $1.16.
Meanwhile, smaller retail wallets have been reducing their positions, according to Santiment.
Meanwhile, smaller retail wallets have been reducing their positions, according to Santiment.
One thing I've noticed throughout this bear market is that every meaningful $BTC relief rally has eventually reached, or briefly pushed above, the Bull Market Support Band.
Right now, that band sits around the $69K–70K area.
If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the 67K daily swing level, I think another test of that zone becomes increasingly likely.
If it fails to reclaim 67K, though, the higher-timeframe resistance remains in control, and the market is likely to stay capped for now.
Right now, that band sits around the $69K–70K area.
If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the 67K daily swing level, I think another test of that zone becomes increasingly likely.
If it fails to reclaim 67K, though, the higher-timeframe resistance remains in control, and the market is likely to stay capped for now.
Vérifié
🔥 Arthur Hayes isn't slowing down. He added another 1,332.5 $ETH to his holdings today, a purchase worth around 2.53 million, extending his recent accumulation streak.
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