🔥 FOMC September: The Real Trade Starts After the Rate Decision #FedRateWatch
The September FOMC is different this time: Kevin Warsh—not Jerome Powell—is leading the Fed, and this is his first FOMC meeting as Chair.
Markets are pricing roughly a 91–93% probability of a 25bp hike, taking rates from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.
But the bigger question is what comes next.
August CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY. Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY. PPI climbed 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY. Meanwhile, August payrolls increased 162,000 and unemployment remained 4.1%.
That is not a clean disinflation story.
Markets are already showing the pressure: the 10Y Treasury yield has moved above 5%, while oil remains above $100/barrel.
🎯 What I’m watching tonight
25bp hike + hawkish Warsh: Higher yields + stronger DXY could pressure BTC, stocks and gold.
25bp hike + softer guidance: If yields and DXY fall after the decision, risk assets could react sharply higher.
For BTC, I’m watching $75K, DXY near 99.6, and the 10Y yield around 5% as the immediate reaction levels.
Last night the sudden consolidation in the market pushed my $SOL position into unrealized loss. Not sure whether I should keep holding or close it. Any suggestions?
Today is a bullish market. Three days ago, I took a long position on the $币安人生 token at a price of 0.24. Shortly after, the market started falling. Within three days, it dropped almost 150% and stabilized around 0.10.
During this time, I didn’t click the exit button. Since I was only using 5x leverage, I held my nerve. I believed this project had strong growth potential. So, I continued using DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) and reduced my average entry price to 0.16.
Today, as the market gained some momentum, the price quickly spiked to 0.18 (so far). I exited my position safely with a small profit. Now, I’m waiting for a dip to re-enter the position.
🚨 BREAKING: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move May Be Triggered Soon
According to the Coinglass BTC Liquidation Map, the market is heating up with heavy liquidation clusters forming on both sides 👇 💥 Short-side liquidity: If #BTC climbs to around $121,000, we’ll see nearly $1B in short liquidations get wiped out — a potential squeeze zone where aggressive shorts could fuel a breakout rally.
🔥 Long-side liquidity: If BTC drops toward $99,000, it could trigger $500M in long liquidations, opening the door for a liquidity sweep before any bounce.
📊 Current price: ~$108K The chart shows equal liquidity pressure above and below — meaning a liquidity grab on either side could decide BTC’s next major direction.
💭 Question: Which side do you think gets taken first — the shorts at $121K, or the longs near $99K?