Profit taking stays light against past cycles. Weekly Net Realized Profit/Loss, the net dollar gain locked in when coins change hands, runs well below the average week at the 2024 and 2025 tops. Its pace in this rally, the right-hand band on the chart, is close to the start of the last uptrend in late 2023, the left-hand band.
The sellers have changed, though. Long-term holders, who have held their coins for more than 155 days, nearly doubled their realized profit in the week to September 29 against the week of the breakout, and their share of all realized profit rose from 34% to 55%. Should weekly profit taking climb toward the levels of past tops, it would show holders selling into strength.
Since early February 2026, Bitcoin has continued to trade in a bear market, having fallen below both the True Market Mean and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis has decreased to $68,500, which is below the True Market Mean of $75,800. Consequently, Bitcoin is currently trading below the acquisition costs of both recent buyers and the broader investor base.
Historically, this configuration is associated with the capitulation phase, during which market bottoms frequently develop. As long as Bitcoin remains below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the market will remain in a capitulation phase. This condition presents opportunities for new buyers while simultaneously exposing the asset to further downside driven by macroeconomic factors.