TradeWiseCrypto

Bitcoin ended Q3 up 44% — its best quarter since Q1 2024 — and ether gained 70.9%, its strongest since Q1 2021. Three labor data points this week all read firm: ADP 90,000, jobless claims 197,000 (below 200,000 for the first time in weeks), Chicago PMI 58.8 vs 51.2 forecast — collectively tilting Friday's NFP toward the higher end of the 60,000-100,000+ range. Wednesday's PCE pop to $85,500 gave back within hours as the 10-year held near 5.3% and DXY climbed to 101.81. Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 on a thin-flow thesis backed by LTH supply at an all-time 80%. Q3 Bitcoin ETFs drew $6.34B, reversing Q2's $5B outflows. Micron beat and guided Q1 2027 to $61.5B vs $57B.Bitcoin Gives Back Its PCE Pop as the 10-Year Holds Near 5.3%Bitcoin surged above $85,500 on Wednesday's softer PCE print before returning to $83,700 as Treasury yields reversed — the 10-year closed 1.6bps higher at 5.276% after touching 5.30%, its highest since 2002, and the 30-year settled at 5.63%. The pattern is the direct test of Thielen's framework: softer PCE reduced October hike odds from 70% to 47.1%, but long yields didn't follow — confirming the fiscal and term-premium driver that a softer inflation reading cannot address. Oil is what reversed the brief relief: WTI +2% with gasoline and diesel each up 4%. The 10-year real yield climbed to 2.83% from 2.68% in the week to September 25. Friday's NFP is the next test with Kalshi pricing 60% odds above 90,000 against Goldman's 80,000 and BofA's 60,000.Jobless Claims Fall to 197,000, Holding Near Historic Lows Before Friday's PayrollsInitial claims for the week ending September 26 came in at 197,000 — below the 200,000 forecast and the prior week's revised 198,000 — completing a firm set of labor data ahead of Friday's NFP. Claims below 200,000 describe a tight labor market: employers are not laying off staff, which says nothing about hiring pace but establishes the market isn't deteriorating through firings. Three releases now point the same direction: ADP 90,000 private payrolls (vs 70,000 expected), Chicago PMI 58.8 (vs 51.2 forecast), and claims 197,000. The combination tilts toward the higher end of Friday's forecast range and complicates Wednesday's inflation-driven rate repricing — a labor market holding firm while inflation sits above 3% is not a configuration that supports cutting, it's the one that kept the Fed hiking. BofA's 60,000 NFP forecast has the least data support of the three estimates heading into Friday.Citi Lifts Bitcoin Target to $113,000 While Forecasting Just $5 Billion of InflowsCitigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000 (+38%) and Ethereum from $2,240 to $3,028 (+35%), while forecasting only $5B in crypto inflows — less than what Bitcoin ETFs alone drew in Q3. The thin-flow thesis rests on Glassnode's LTH supply at an all-time 80% of circulating supply (up from 65% a year ago): less selling pressure means a given quantity of buying moves price further. Citi's Bitcoin target implies 35% upside vs 13% for Ethereum — the opposite of Q3's actual performance where ETH outpaced Bitcoin by 27 percentage points. Real yields at 2.83% are the macro headwind; Thielen's fiscal-driver framework is the bull case the target implicitly depends on. The prior $82,000 target already sat below where Bitcoin trades, making the revision more reflective than anticipatory.Bitcoin Closes Its Best Quarter Since Early 2024 as Ether Gains 70.9%Bitcoin ended Q3 up ~44% — its best quarter since Q1 2024's 68.7% — and ether gained 70.9%, its strongest since Q1 2021, both following three consecutive down quarters. LTH supply hit an all-time 80% of circulating supply as the 155-day threshold now captures coins unmoved since late April — accumulation continued through the drawdown. The quarter ended on a round trip: PCE pushed Bitcoin above $85,500 before it returned to $83,500 within two hours as oil jumped and yields reversed. Micron beat on revenue ($54.23B vs $51.1B) and guided Q1 2027 to $61.5B vs $57B — CEO Mehrotra: "Industry demand has strengthened since our last earnings call." Chicago PMI jumped to 58.8 from 47.1, possibly previewing national ISM. Hut 8 CEO clarified a 1.5M share filing reflected collateral borrowing, not a sale.Bitcoin ETFs Take $6.34 Billion in Q3 After $5 Billion of Q2 OutflowsQ3 Bitcoin ETF inflows of $6.34B reversed Q2's $5B outflows — an $11B+ swing — but monthly momentum is decelerating: July $172M, August $3.52B, September $2.65B, with the streak snapping Wednesday on $149M in outflows. ETF inflows captured one slice of demand while CryptoQuant's overall spot demand metric fell 170,000 BTC over 30 days — ETFs were buying from sellers elsewhere rather than adding to net demand. Ether ETFs drew $3.05B in Q3 while delivering 70.9% vs Bitcoin's 44% — flows explain less of ether's move, consistent with broader altcoin rotation. Altcoin fund highlights: XRP ETFs $308M in Q3 ($1.79B cumulative), Solana $272M in September, Zcash $246M in September. Q4 historically averages 77% for Bitcoin (median 47.7%) — the macro setup (10-year at 5.3%, real yields at 2.83%, DXY at 101.81) is less supportive than the seasonal record implies.