Fed hike odds nearly doubled in one day
Rate futures now price a 43.7% đ chance of a hike at the Oct 28 FOMC, up from 22.1% yesterday and 17.7% a week ago. Hold still leads at 56.3%, and an ease is priced at 0%.
The trigger was the 3.7% CPI print. One detail worth noticing: a month ago the hike probability sat at 43.5%, so this is a return to earlier levels, not a new extreme. Hold odds fell from 77.9% to 56.3% in 24 hours.
Scenario map: a hold keeps the current range structure intact. A hike tightens liquidity further and raises the odds of a volatility event. With the market this close to a coin flip, position sizing matters more than direction calls.
Verify first. Risk later. Scale slowly...
#FOMC #BTC #Macro
Rate futures now price a 43.7% đ chance of a hike at the Oct 28 FOMC, up from 22.1% yesterday and 17.7% a week ago. Hold still leads at 56.3%, and an ease is priced at 0%.
The trigger was the 3.7% CPI print. One detail worth noticing: a month ago the hike probability sat at 43.5%, so this is a return to earlier levels, not a new extreme. Hold odds fell from 77.9% to 56.3% in 24 hours.
Scenario map: a hold keeps the current range structure intact. A hike tightens liquidity further and raises the odds of a volatility event. With the market this close to a coin flip, position sizing matters more than direction calls.
Verify first. Risk later. Scale slowly...
#FOMC #BTC #Macro