I've written about unlocks throughout this month. Today is the biggest one: 2Z unlocks 1.66 billion tokens — roughly 47.69% of circulating supply — worth about $114 million. That's one of the largest single unlocks this quarter.
But I want to end the month with the framework I've been building. Five questions I ask before reacting to any unlock:
1. What's the percentage of circulating supply? Under 1% is noise. Over 5% is a real supply event. Over 20% is a supply shock.
2. Who receives the tokens? Team and VC unlocks often lead to selling. Ecosystem and community allocations might get held or staked. The recipient matters as much as the size.
3. Is it a cliff or linear? A cliff releases everything at once. Linear vesting drips over time. Cliff unlocks are sudden events. Linear unlocks are baked-in pressure.
4. What's the market already expecting? If the unlock has been on the calendar for months, some of the selling pressure is priced in. The surprise factor matters more than the event itself.
5. What did recipients do last time? This is the question most people skip. Check the claim rate from previous unlocks. If most tokens went unclaimed last time, the actual selling pressure might be far smaller than the headline number.
The unlock calendar tells you what's scheduled. These five questions tell you what might actually happen.
#CryptoEducation #TokenUnlocks #Tokenomics
But I want to end the month with the framework I've been building. Five questions I ask before reacting to any unlock:
1. What's the percentage of circulating supply? Under 1% is noise. Over 5% is a real supply event. Over 20% is a supply shock.
2. Who receives the tokens? Team and VC unlocks often lead to selling. Ecosystem and community allocations might get held or staked. The recipient matters as much as the size.
3. Is it a cliff or linear? A cliff releases everything at once. Linear vesting drips over time. Cliff unlocks are sudden events. Linear unlocks are baked-in pressure.
4. What's the market already expecting? If the unlock has been on the calendar for months, some of the selling pressure is priced in. The surprise factor matters more than the event itself.
5. What did recipients do last time? This is the question most people skip. Check the claim rate from previous unlocks. If most tokens went unclaimed last time, the actual selling pressure might be far smaller than the headline number.
The unlock calendar tells you what's scheduled. These five questions tell you what might actually happen.
#CryptoEducation #TokenUnlocks #Tokenomics
