◢ Re-poster

Decentralized Perps Open Interest Hits Record ~$26B; $6 Trillion Traded YTD, Up 42% Year Over Year

Open interest on decentralized perpetual futures exchanges hit a record approximately $26 billion as of end of Q3 2026, per @Bitwise Asset Management. Year-to-date notional volume across leading exchanges like Hyperliquid and Lighter exceeded $6 trillion, up 42% from the same period last year.

What's notable is where that open interest is coming from. It's no longer just crypto assets. These venues now offer 24/7 leveraged exposure to stocks, ETFs, commodities, currencies, and pre-IPO names including Anthropic, alongside crypto.

The CFTC approved the first U.S. bitcoin perps in May 2026 and has since started writing formal perp rules, with two proposals already under White House review. @Bitwise projects the perp market to accelerate in Q4 as regulatory support clears and U.S. investors begin accessing these venues.

The revenue side confirms the scale. Hyperliquid generated $685.8 million in trailing 12-month revenue through September 30, 2026, making it the top-grossing crypto application by a wide margin ahead of http://Pump.fun at $465.0 million and Axiom at $207.8 million.

Kalshi Runs 87.6% of Crypto Prediction Market Volume; Sports Category at $33.5B in Q3

Kalshi dominated four of seven prediction market categories by volume in Q3 2026, according to @Bitwise Asset Management data from Allium covering July 1 to September 30, 2026.

In the crypto category, Kalshi held 87.6% market share on $12,401.4 million in total Q3 volume. In sports, Kalshi ran 65.4% of volume on $33,460.0 million, the largest single category in prediction markets by far. Kalshi also led others (93.4% on $6,306.3 million) and business (93.7% on $971.2 million).

Polymarket leads the politics category with 70.4% of $902.0 million in Q3 volume and weather/climate at 52.7% of $274.2 million.

Sports is now the dominant prediction market category by raw volume at $33.5 billion in Q3, dwarfing the combined volume of crypto, politics, and business. That composition matters for understanding where liquidity is actually concentrating in onchain prediction infrastructure.

@allencontrol signed a collaboration agreement with @EchodyneCorp to develop, demo and deploy integrated counter-UAS systems (Echodyne radar data feeding Bullfrog weapon station)

https://www.unmannedairspace.info/counter-uas-systems-and-policies/echodyne-and-allen-control-systems-ink-c-uas-collaboration-deal/

Only ~2% of Mortgage Market Refinanceable at Prevailing Rates; Agency MBS Posted -3.38% in September, Fourth-Worst Month Since 2000

The mortgage market is structurally locked up. By quarter-end September 30, 2026, only approximately 2% of the mortgage market was refinanceable at prevailing rates. That suppresses prepayment risk across much of the coupon stack and reinforces the lock-in dynamic DoubleLine describes across residential credit broadly.

Agency MBS bore the brunt of Q3's rate move. The @business US MBS Index returned negative 4.25% for the quarter, underperforming Treasuries, which returned negative 3.04%. September alone was negative 3.38%, the fourth-worst monthly total return for Agency MBS since 2000.

The pressure was rate and volatility driven, not credit. Current-coupon spreads widened approximately 18 basis points during the quarter as markets adjusted to a higher path for interest rates.

@DLineCap notes the repricing improved the opportunity set. Higher yields, wider spreads and the 2% refinanceable market together reduce prepayment risk while improving carry and relative value versus corporate bonds. Agency MBS gross issuance is projected at approximately $1.3 trillion for 2026, with net issuance of approximately $164 billion.

The biggest area for improvement for @grok bot is its memory.

A solvable problem, but it’s pretty rough right now.

Hyperscaler RPOs Hit More Than USD 2 Trillion; Amazon Alone at USD 627bn

The remaining performance obligations (RPOs) across Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft now stand at more than USD 2 trillion, according to Iain Fulton at Amova Asset Management, citing company reports and @business July 2026 data. RPOs are contracted future revenues for services not yet delivered, so they represent hard commitments already on the books, not projections.

The chart breaks it down: Amazon is at USD 627.0bn, Microsoft at USD 519.5bn, and Alphabet at USD 364.0bn. All three lines show steep upward curves from 2022 onward.

The issue Fulton flags is that OpenAI and Anthropic account for a significant portion of that expected demand. Those LLM companies are not the hyperscalers, they do not generate the same cash flow, and they will need significant financing and substantial revenue growth over the next few years to honor those commitments. @GoldmanSachs research, cited in the note, puts the revenue requirement at USD 1 trillion, which Fulton calls an extremely ambitious assumption.

The practical implication: the RPOs are helping underpin earnings expectations across the AI hardware supply chain right now. If the LLM companies cannot fund themselves adequately heading into 2027 and 2028, the credit-risk transmission runs straight into the hyperscaler revenue line, and from there into the supply chain multiples built on those RPO-backed earnings.

GS Prime Book Shows Mag 7 Nets Taken Higher Into Rally; Overall HF Nets Remain Extremely Low

GS Prime Brokerage data as of 10/5/2026 shows hedge funds have added tech and taken Mag 7 net exposures higher, while overall net exposure levels remain extremely low with sentiment described as pessimistic, according to Rich Privorotsky at @GoldmanSachs on 7 Oct 2026.

The chart tracks Mag 7 as a percentage of total US exposure (market value) on both a gross and net basis from 2022 through mid-2026. The gross and net series are visible, with the net series running materially below gross throughout the period.

Privorotsky's read: the risks are "obvious and well understood." The positioning tailwind is real for bonds, Russell and Europe, but those can't sustainably work "without a durable energy solution." The market is not broadly long. The concentrated addition is in Mag 7/tech specifically, consistent with the tape where S&P and Nasdaq held while Russell struggled.

$CRWD just took out last week’s low

$XLU Utilities have already paid for the rate shock: ~14% relative underperformance since April and a de-rating from 13% P/E premium to parity

Utilities have taken the valuation hit first.

@morganstanley says European utilities underperformed the market by “~14% since April highs” and de-rated “from 13% premium to market P/E to parity.” Historically, utilities underperformed the market in “68% of periods of large upward moves in yields,” with a “median -3%,” and renewable and regulated names saw “median -7%.”

The fundamental point is different from the price action. @morganstanley argues the debt stock is largely fixed rate, refinancing is staggered, and allowed returns and PPA prices showed pass-through in 2021-23.

So higher yields are mostly a multiple headwind, not an immediate EPS shock. If yields peak, long-duration utilities are the rebound expression. If yields keep rising and equities weaken, the defensive earnings profile matters more.

France and Italy face ~150% of GDP debt by 2040 absent policy change; France's challenge is structurally high spending, Italy's is high interest and weak growth

Under a no-policy-change scenario, @morganstanley's debt sustainability analysis simulations point to a similar destination for France and Italy but via different routes.

France's debt ratio could rise toward 150% of GDP by 2040. The underlying driver is structurally high expenditure. France was one of the few euro area countries failing to contain its primary deficits in the 2015-19 period, averaging a primary deficit of 1.3% over that stretch. Public spending at 57.3% of GDP in 2024 is already among the highest in the euro area, which averaged 49.5%.

Italy's trajectory is not materially different. @morganstanley projects Italy's debt ratio at around 150-160% of GDP by 2040, starting from around 137% today. The driver differs though: Italy has historically run primary surpluses, averaging 1.5% in 2015-19, and can return to them. The challenge is persistently high interest expenditure compounded by an already elevated debt stock and structurally weak growth.

Germany diverges. @morganstanley estimates the German debt ratio could rise by slightly more than 10pp between now and 2030, peaking below 80% of GDP from the low 60s currently, then returning toward primary surpluses in the early 2030s.

Spain looks better near term, with the deficit likely falling to around 2.4% of GDP in 2025 from 3.2% in 2024. But under no-policy-change, ageing pressures reverse the trajectory post-2030, pushing debt back to around 120-130% of GDP by 2040.

The four trajectories matter for rates because the supply and credit channels operate very differently across these starting points. The EU fiscal rules require debt ratios to decline with at least a 70% probability, meaning Italy, France, Belgium and Spain face required annual fiscal adjustments of around 50-60bp per year even under a seven-year plan.

@reflection_ai 🤝 @nvidia

Open source & open weight models ✅

https://www.cnbctv18.com/technology/nvidia-in-talks-to-invest-further-in-reflection-ai-or-buy-it-ft-reports-20009206.htm

$AAOI acercándose

La probabilidad de una subida de tipos en octubre cayó del 70 % al 20 %; la de diciembre sigue en ~80 %

La probabilidad de una subida de tipos en octubre cayó del 70 % al 20 % tras los comentarios de «subida moderada» del vicepresidente de la Fed Jefferson y del presidente de la Fed de Nueva York Williams, que apuntaban a que se podría aplazar la subida. Así lo indicó Edward K. Tom, de @Cboe, al 5 de octubre de 2026.

Pero la probabilidad de una subida en diciembre sigue rondando el 80 %. Los futuros de los fondos federales no están descontando una moderación ni una reversión de la tendencia restrictiva. Están descontando un aplazamiento. Tom lo expresa claramente: cualquier cambio en la trayectoria de la política de la Fed tiene que ver «más con el momento de la próxima subida de tipos que con una moderación o reversión de la tendencia restrictiva».

Esta distinción es importante para interpretar la respuesta de la volatilidad. El VIX cerró en 15,3, la correlación en 8,0 y el sesgo en mínimos del percentil 7. Los mercados de renta variable interpretaron el reajuste de las expectativas sobre las subidas a corto plazo como un alivio. La trayectoria futura de la política monetaria sigue siendo restrictiva.

La tabla de volatilidad entre clases de activos muestra dónde se está manifestando la incertidumbre sobre los tipos. La volatilidad implícita a 1 mes de $TLT y $IEF se sitúa en el percentil 98 de su rango de un año. El diferencial entre volatilidad implícita y realizada de $RTY está en el percentil 89.

La señal de volatilidad de los tipos es contundente, aunque la volatilidad de la renta variable se mantuvo contenida.

"Nunca interrumpas a tu oponente cuando esté en medio de cometer un error."

-- Sun Tzu

Los shocks acíclicos, no los salarios, mantienen la inflación de EE. UU. por encima del objetivo del 2 %

La descomposición del PCE subyacente de la Reserva Federal de San Francisco muestra que los componentes acíclicos —aquellos impulsados por factores específicos de cada sector o estructurales, y no por el ciclo económico general— son los principales responsables de que la inflación se mantenga elevada.

Los economistas de Natixis Hodge y Aker citan directamente este marco: los componentes cíclicos, que responden a la política monetaria, muestran una tendencia a la baja, mientras que los acíclicos, sensibles a los aranceles y a los shocks energéticos, son los que más contribuyen al aumento.

Subir las tasas comprime las presiones cíclicas sobre los precios. No aborda las acíclicas. Si la descomposición de la Reserva Federal de San Francisco es correcta, un endurecimiento adicional tendría un impacto marginal limitado en los componentes que actualmente mantienen la inflación por encima del objetivo.

¿Quién comprará nuestra deuda? TODOS.

Los compradores extranjeros adquirieron el 42 % de la subasta de bonos del Tesoro a 30 años de septiembre, frente a un promedio reciente de alrededor del 12 %.

Por separado, en la subasta más reciente de bonos a 10 años, celebrada esta semana, los intermediarios se quedaron con solo el 2,5 %, y la subasta se adjudicó a un rendimiento aproximadamente 1,7 pb por debajo del nivel de la 1 p. m.

La proporción adjudicada a los intermediarios en la subasta a 30 años fue del 6,8 %, la tercera más baja registrada, y la subasta se realizó justo después de un repunte intradía de 12 pb desde los máximos de rendimiento.

Las acciones de los hiperescaladores alcanzaron máximos de 4 meses, mientras que el crédito de los hiperescaladores no lo confirmó... no es la divergencia que los inversores con posiciones largas quieren ver

El patrimonio neto de los hogares de EE. UU. alcanzó un récord de 185 billones de dólares en el segundo trimestre de 2026, mientras que las acciones de consumo discrecional cayeron ~6% en lo que va del año

Pero recuerda: te dijeron que el consumidor estaba muerto, ¿verdad?

RSI del ratio RTY/NDX en 12,77, la octava lectura más baja registrada desde 1985

-- @btigresearch

La relación entre el S&P 500 ponderado por igual (RSP) y el ponderado por capitalización bursátil (SPY) nunca había sido tan baja.