CryptoZeno 1

🚨 $BTC El modelo del ciclo SOPR está mostrando un gran punto de inflexión

#Bitcoin la estructura del ciclo SOPR a largo plazo muestra un patrón inquietantemente familiar. El gráfico resalta zonas recurrentes de alta rentabilidad cerca de los máximos del ciclo y zonas de grandes pérdidas alrededor de una capitulación profunda, con cada ciclo importante seguido de un reinicio prolongado antes de la siguiente expansión.

Lo que hace que la configuración actual sea interesante es que la relación SOPR se está desplazando hacia la parte inferior de la estructura alcista de su ciclo. Históricamente, condiciones similares aparecieron en torno a 2014, 2018 y 2022, periodos en los que la realización de ganancias se debilitó antes de que Bitcoin entrara en otra fase importante de acumulación y expansión.

El modelo proyecta una ventana potencial de nov 2026 a ene 2027 para otra transición de ciclo importante. Si el ritmo histórico sigue siendo relevante, la debilidad actual podría representar un reinicio de final de ciclo en lugar del inicio de una reversión de tendencia permanente.

El nivel clave a vigilar es si el SOPR puede sostener su soporte estructural mientras el BTC construye una nueva base. Si la historia se repite, la próxima oportunidad podría aparecer cuando el gráfico se vea menos emocionante.

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

🚨 $BTC SOPR Cycle Model Is Flashing a Major Turning Point #Bitcoin long-term SOPR cycle structure is showing an eerily familiar pattern. The chart highlights recurring high-profit zones near cycle tops and high-loss zones around deep capitulation, with each major cycle followed by a prolonged reset before the next expansion. What makes the current setup interesting is the SOPR ratio drifting toward the lower part of its rising cycle structure. Historically, similar conditions appeared around 2014, 2018 and 2022, periods where profit realization weakened before Bitcoin entered another major accumulation and expansion phase. The model projects a potential Nov 2026 to Jan 2027 window for another major cycle transition. If the historical rhythm remains relevant, the current weakness may represent a late-cycle reset rather than the beginning of a permanent trend reversal. The key level to watch is whether SOPR can hold its structural support while BTC builds a new base. If history rhymes, the next opportunity may appear when the chart looks the least exciting. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

For those who aren’t positioned yet:

If you’re waiting for Q4, this is the plan and expectations.

Any sweep below the 57K wick low, if we get one, should be bought up very aggressively and almost instantly.

I don’t expect us to spend much time trading around these levels. In a low liquidity environment, whales are likely to use other people’s liquidations as an opportunity to accumulate large positions while most participants are dead.

So, if we do get a sweep below 57K during Q4, I believe there’s a high probability that it becomes the bottoming wick.

Key word: IF.

By now, it should be pretty obvious that I expect $BTC to be above 80K in Q1 next year. With #BTC currently around 62.8K, that presents a significant move to capture, especially with leverage.

We still have a couple of weeks before Q4 approaches, so for those who aren’t currently exposed or positioned, my advice would be to start preparing accordingly and look to build exposure on any sweeps into these levels.

Personally, I don’t feel the need to clarify every post, but for transparency: I’m already in my long and spot position, with a 65.8K notional average.

As always, the 57K sweep is a conditional scenario, not a prediction that it must happen. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

For those who aren’t positioned yet:

If you’re waiting for Q4, this is the plan and expectations.

Any sweep below the 57K wick low, if we get one, should be bought up very aggressively and almost instantly.

I don’t expect us to spend much time trading around these levels. In a low liquidity environment, whales are likely to use other people’s liquidations as an opportunity to accumulate large positions while most participants are dead.

So, if we do get a sweep below 57K during Q4, I believe there’s a high probability that it becomes the bottoming wick.

Key word: IF.

By now, it should be pretty obvious that I expect $BTC to be above 80K in Q1 next year. With #BTC currently around 62.8K, that presents a significant move to capture, especially with leverage.

We still have a couple of weeks before Q4 approaches, so for those who aren’t currently exposed or positioned, my advice would be to start preparing accordingly and look to build exposure on any sweeps into these levels.

Personally, I don’t feel the need to clarify every post, but for transparency: I’m already in my long and spot position, with a 65.8K notional average.

As always, the 57K sweep is a conditional scenario, not a prediction that it must happen. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC Ahora no es el momento de ponerse bajista...

Ya se ha alcanzado mi primera zona de suelo, aunque el suelo podría ya haberse formado.

La región de 60–62K será la señal real. Si esta zona se mantiene, esperaría otro movimiento alcista hacia la zona de 67K.

El precio ya ha caído aproximadamente un 54% desde el ATH, pero la mayoría sigue llamando a que bajará más. Los ciclos están avanzando poco a poco más rápido, IYKYK.

Sigo manteniendo una posición larga de swing desde 59.4K.

Se alcanzarán 80–90K a principios de 2027. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC Hoy no parece particularmente alcista.

Hasta ahora, hemos hecho múltiples mínimos más bajos y máximos más bajos y ahora estamos en una etapa de compresión en forma de triángulo descendente.

Esto normalmente se considera un patrón de continuación dentro de una tendencia bajista.

Si el soporte no logra mantenerse y obtenemos una ruptura por debajo del patrón, el objetivo técnico se sitúa alrededor de 62K, que es el límite superior de la zona principal de soporte actual. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC
se ha estabilizado cerca de $65k, con una mayor demanda por parte de los compradores que ejecutan al precio (taker), entradas institucionales sólidas y un debilitamiento de la cobertura de caídas (downside hedging). Sin embargo, la liquidez spot contenida y la débil actividad on-chain sugieren que la recuperación sigue siendo tentativa. #Análisis del Precio de BTC# #Perspectivas Macroeconómicas#

H100 acquires 2,455.4 $BTC at approx. USD 62,900 per Bitcoin, increasing total holdings to 3,506 BTC. The transaction, announced in April, has now been completed: Largest M&A transaction in the European Public Bitcoin Equity sector World's first Bitcoin-for-Bitcoin M&A transaction in public markets Paid entirely in H100 shares at 1.0x mNAV, an implied share price of SEK 1.86, with no cash consideration Sats per basic share unchanged, sats per fully diluted share up approximately 5%, from 288 to 303 The acquired company holds no financial debt The acquisition brings together complementary teams, technology and market capabilities. Together we can accomplish things neither company could accomplish alone. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #MichaelSaylor

$BTC Over the past, price has filled every mFVG,

And now we have one one above us again, everytime we created the mFVG above us in this bear market,

It was tapped into and gave a volatile rejection from there.

Usually, we tap into such levels, on Monthly Open and we are seeing the same stuff happening here too.

I won't be surprised if price pumped into that mFVG later the upcoming weeks.

Here's my playbook on how I am gonna trade it.

First, I am looking for a rejection after sweeping the 65.4k > dump into 63.8k gap.

If that gap holds, I will look for long setups from there,

I usually go for 1:3, so I won't hold it all the way to 67k ofcourse, but I will certainly be looking for the break above to 67-68k.

If we get the break above and tap into that mFVG,

I am gonna be looking for swing shorts from there back to 60-61k.

Also, it's very possible that after sweeping 65.4k, we might just keep on dumping to 60-61k.

But the mFVG has a higher probability of playing out, So I will stick to it and also, Take profits on the trades time to time. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC Long-Term Holders Are Distributing A Structural Shift in Bitcoin Supply Dynamics Recent on-chain data points to a clear change in Bitcoin supply dynamics as long-term holders (LTH) have moved into sustained distribution. The 30-day net position change has turned deeply negative, a pattern historically associated with late-stage trends where older coins re-enter circulation amid elevated prices. This suggests that selling pressure is no longer limited to short-term traders, but is increasingly coming from conviction holders, altering the structural balance of supply. The accumulation and distribution metrics reinforce this view. The persistent negative 30-day change in LTH supply indicates that the market is transitioning away from a scarcity-driven expansion phase toward a more two-sided regime. While price has remained relatively resilient, the divergence between market strength and LTH behavior implies that upside continuation now depends more on fresh demand than on organic supply constraints. This shift is further reflected in realized cap dynamics. Slowing growth in LTH realized cap, combined with intermittent spikes from short-term holders, signals a gradual rotation of capital from long-term positioning toward more reactive participation. Such transitions typically mark a maturing trend phase, where price becomes increasingly sensitive to liquidity conditions and macro catalysts. From a macro-on-chain perspective, this configuration does not necessarily imply an immediate trend reversal, but it does point to a structural regime change. As long-term holders distribute and supply pressure rises, Bitcoin is likely to experience wider trading ranges and elevated volatility, with price stability hinging more on sustained inflows than on tight supply held by strong hands. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #CryptoZeno

🚨 $BTC JUST REPEATED A PATTERN THAT HAS PRECEDED EVERY MAJOR BEAR MARKET PHASE #Bitcoin Price Oscillator is once again entering the same pivot zone that marked the transition from distribution to prolonged corrections in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Every previous cycle formed two major oscillator peaks before momentum rolled over, followed by a loss of trend strength and a deeper market reset. The current structure is unfolding in almost identical fashion, with the oscillator hovering around the historical pivot region instead of expanding into a fresh impulse. What makes this setup especially important is that price remains relatively elevated while momentum continues to weaken. This type of bearish divergence has repeatedly appeared near late cycle exhaustion, suggesting buyers are becoming less aggressive despite higher valuations. Unless Bitcoin reclaims strong momentum and pushes the oscillator back into expansion territory, the probability of entering the next corrective phase continues to increase. History never guarantees the future, but it often rhymes. Right now, the chart is telling traders to pay less attention to emotions and more attention to cycle structure. If this oscillator follows previous market behavior, volatility could accelerate sharply before the next major opportunity emerges. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

Launched a memecoin $TRUMP that's down 95%, which senators want the SEC to investigate as an illegal scam

Admitted his Truth Social posts move markets, then proved it by moving the entire market with one tariff post

Started selling banks early access to those exact posts for up to $100,000 a month

Paying firms get his announcements milliseconds before everyone else and milliseconds in high speed trading means MILLIONS in profit

There's a law that specifically bans the president from letting people trade on inside government information and it's still happening anyway

He made 1.4 BILLION from crypto and $BTC last year and now he's now charging for a head start on the news that moves the market

In any other administration, this would be considered criminal #BTC Price Analysis# #Meme Alpha# #Macro Insights#

$BTC ha entrado oficialmente en el peor mes del año con un 69% de probabilidades de un agosto en rojo. Además, el 100% de los años de mercado bajista y los años posteriores a los mercados bajistas han estado en rojo en agosto. Y #Bitcoin está en una racha perdedora de 4 años en agosto, la más larga registrada. ¿Podría ser este el año que rompa la racha de derrotas de Bitcoin en agosto? #Análisis de Precio de BTC# #Perspectivas Macroeconómicas#

🚨 $BTC Just Flashed a Rare Multi Cycle Bottom Signal. History Suggests the Biggest Moves Begin Here. #Bitcoin is entering a technical zone that has historically marked the final stage of major market corrections. The Trend Strength Index (TSI) has once again fallen into the Cycle Bottom Zone, a level that previously aligned with the macro lows of 2015, 2018, and 2022. Each of those signals appeared when sentiment was extremely bearish, just before Bitcoin began a new long term expansion. At the same time, the Williams Fractals structure continues to print lower swing lows, a pattern often seen during late accumulation phases. While short term volatility can still shake out weak hands, the combination of exhausted trend momentum and recurring fractal behavior suggests that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion rather than acceleration. If this historical rhythm continues, the current setup could represent Signal 1 of a potential 3 stage bottoming process, similar to previous cycles. Confirmation still requires higher lows, stronger monthly closes, and improving market structure, but the risk to reward profile is becoming increasingly attractive for long term investors. Smart money rarely waits for perfect confirmation. By the time momentum indicators recover, a significant portion of the upside has often already been captured. BTC is once again trading at a point where history has rewarded patience far more than panic. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC
has slipped to $62.6k as spot demand remains weak and derivatives stay defensive. Stronger on-chain activity, resilient holders and ETF inflows offer support, but conviction remains muted. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

A man accidentally started the $BTC mining arms race and got a personal warning from Satoshi Nakamoto to slow down.

> His name is Laszlo Hanyecz.

> In 2010 he discovered GPUs could mine #Bitcoin faster than regular processors

> He rewrote the mining code and shared it publicly.

> The entire network's computing power exploded overnight.

> Industrial mining farms started appearing across the world.

> Bitcoin would never be mined the same way again.

> Satoshi Nakamoto messaged him directly.

> He said "We should have a gentlemen's agreement to postpone the GPU arms race as long as we can."

> Laszlo felt so guilty he stopped advertising it but kept mining anyway.

> The network's total computing power grew 130,000% by year end

> A few months later Satoshi disappeared from the internet forever.

> Nobody has heard from him since.

> This is the same man who paid 10,000 Bitcoin for two pizzas.

> Those pizzas are worth $660 million today.

The man who triggered the Bitcoin mining arms race, ignored a personal warning from its creator, and spent $660 million on pizza is the same person. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC
Update & Hyblock Heatmaps

#Bitcoin lost momentum into the monthly close and retraced already half of its pump.

Heatmaps are screaming for the 60/61k area, which is the golden pocket as well.

Target to the upside is 72k-ish. As soon as BTC breaks 67.2k and sets in a higher high, it will pump through the weekly fvg.

Logical scenario we might get: dump into golden pocket soon, then bounce and another attempt for 67k mid week.

Enjoy your Sunday and see you soon! #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC Price is breaking down after the FOMC,

We still have un-swept levels remaining below so it's very likely that they are gonna be hunted very soon.

I will be looking for swing longs from the zone below (after the liquidity hunt),

And will target 65k as my first TP for the longs,

For max, I think we are gonna go to 67-68k, filling the mFVG there and then rejecting from there towards lower levels again.

For the time window, We should be dropping from Monday hunting the liquidity levels below into our Long zone,

Then slowly move move/grind upwards and fill the mFVG in the first 2 weeks of August and form the High for the range there.

Overall, I think August is gonna close Red following our Green July thesis. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

No surprise so far… $BTC
is down 2.8% since FOMC.

In 6 of the last 7 cases, we saw average drops of 4-5%.

If this reaction mimics the past, we could test the low 60-61K area.

Overall, you wouldn't want to see us lose 60K otherwise we will end up sweeping the lows. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC We are rejecting from the top of the Falling Wedge on the LTF. If we continue rejecting there, we will see continuation back down towards the 62k-61k region. What I'm looking for going into the Monthly Close is a move to the downside to establish our Wave 2.

The first move after a month opens is usually the bait before continuation higher, so it would make more sense to push lower into the Monthly Close, take out the liquidity, and mark Wave 2 before pushing up towards the Wave 3 region.

Now it's important that we hold the Golden Pocket (0.5-0.618 Fib region) on the revisit for this Wave 3 scenario to remain intact.

Theoretically, the Wave Count will remain valid as long as Wave 2 stays above the low of Wave 1. But the 60k region is a key support zone itself, which should be respected for continuation to the upside from a structural perspective.

Now, if we push towards the upside first and start rejecting from the 67k-68k region, I will look for a Swing Short simply because it's going to be a similar scenario to what we saw at 97k and 82k previously.

If we see bears holding up strongly around the 60k region after rejecting 67k-68k, then it will open the room for a push all the way down to the current lows and the 54k region.

I'm personally Bullish and expecting 70k+ in August, but the confirmations are yet to come, so there's nothing to be excited about just yet. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#