The midterm tailwind
According to @jpmorgan's Market Intelligence team, history suggests the US midterms could provide a much-needed boost to equities.
Since 1990, the S&P 500 has delivered average gains of 5.4%, 11.4%, 12.5% and 14.7% over the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, with a 100% positive hit rate at 6, 9 and 12 months.
Meanwhile, @jpmorgan argues the recent de-risking is not quite capitulatory, with quant selling and elevated tech positioning still posing risks.
However, widespread deleveraging and momentum exposure collapsing to just 30% of its peak suggest the stage may be set for an alpha rebound.
According to @jpmorgan's Market Intelligence team, history suggests the US midterms could provide a much-needed boost to equities.
Since 1990, the S&P 500 has delivered average gains of 5.4%, 11.4%, 12.5% and 14.7% over the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, with a 100% positive hit rate at 6, 9 and 12 months.
Meanwhile, @jpmorgan argues the recent de-risking is not quite capitulatory, with quant selling and elevated tech positioning still posing risks.
However, widespread deleveraging and momentum exposure collapsing to just 30% of its peak suggest the stage may be set for an alpha rebound.
