Watching Bitcoin retest the $80K zone for the third time is genuinely exciting to track from a market structure standpoint. It shows real persistence from spot buyers, especially seeing order book absorption soak up continuous sell walls without triggering immediate capitulation cascades. Multiple tests of a critical resistance usually signal that overhead liquidity is gradually being eaten up, and the institutional basis trade alongside ETF net flows provides a much sturdier fundamental floor compared to previous speculative run-ups.
That being said, leaning too heavily into the $94K breakout target right now feels a bit disconnected from current order flow realities. When an asset taps a major level three times without a clean volume expansion, open interest tends to get overextended, leaving late leveraged longs heavily vulnerable. If funding rates overheat and aggregate spot demand fails to follow through on the fourth attempt, market makers have an obvious pool of resting bids sitting down around the $65K CME gap and high-volume nodes. Until we secure a high-timeframe candle close above $82K with expanding spot volume, I'd argue a sweep toward $65K to flush late perp liquidity and reset the basis is both more probable and much healthier for the macro trend before any real expansion toward the $90K range can stick $BTC
That being said, leaning too heavily into the $94K breakout target right now feels a bit disconnected from current order flow realities. When an asset taps a major level three times without a clean volume expansion, open interest tends to get overextended, leaving late leveraged longs heavily vulnerable. If funding rates overheat and aggregate spot demand fails to follow through on the fourth attempt, market makers have an obvious pool of resting bids sitting down around the $65K CME gap and high-volume nodes. Until we secure a high-timeframe candle close above $82K with expanding spot volume, I'd argue a sweep toward $65K to flush late perp liquidity and reset the basis is both more probable and much healthier for the macro trend before any real expansion toward the $90K range can stick $BTC