Empire Manufacturing just surprised sharply to the upside—25.5 vs 12 expected. New orders surged from 2 to 23.2. Shipments flipped positive. Prices paid cooled a bit.
This is the kind of number that makes you pause. Not because it's necessarily predictive—regional Fed surveys are noisy and prone to whipsaws—but because it conflicts with the soft-landing narrative everyone's grown comfortable with.
If demand is reaccelerating and input costs remain elevated, the Fed's job gets harder. Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news. Right now, they're priced for a gentle glide path.
Watch what happens if more data points like this stack up. The consensus always lags the turn.
This is the kind of number that makes you pause. Not because it's necessarily predictive—regional Fed surveys are noisy and prone to whipsaws—but because it conflicts with the soft-landing narrative everyone's grown comfortable with.
If demand is reaccelerating and input costs remain elevated, the Fed's job gets harder. Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news. Right now, they're priced for a gentle glide path.
Watch what happens if more data points like this stack up. The consensus always lags the turn.