Bitcoin rose about 7% in September, from around $79,000 to $85,000, defying its historically weak seasonality. Yet the recovery was far from smooth.

Oil prices, rising Treasury yields and Fed tightening concerns weighed on markets mid-month. The XWIN CAPITAL INDEX fell to 35 on September 17 before recovering to 78 on September 26 as ETF inflows, whale accumulation and exchange outflows improved market conditions.

This suggests the rebound involved more than a short squeeze. ETFs, companies and large investors provided support.

Still, a bottom is not confirmed. The index eased to 62 by September 30. Profit-taking increased, ETF inflows slowed, and broader spot demand remained weak. Coinbase Premium Gap fell to around −$67, suggesting buying pressure on Coinbase still lagged Binance.

October's key question is who buys the next dip. Continued ETF inflows, whale accumulation and stronger spot demand would support a bottom retest. ETF outflows and rising whale deposits to exchanges would challenge that view.

High US yields remain a risk, despite softer PCE easing rate-hike concerns. Watch whether strong buyers return during pullbacks.

Written by XWIN Japan