usmaycoreinflationbelowforecast

Alongside ambitious domestic revenue targets, state planners are relying heavily on both external and internal borrowing to plug the fiscal deficit
The proposed national budget of approximately Tk938,000 crore for the upcoming FY27 brings a mix of high macroeconomic expectations and multi-layered structural challenges.
To implement a fiscal blueprint of this magnitude, the government must mobilize massive financial resources.
Alongside ambitious domestic revenue targets, state planners are relying heavily on both external and internal borrowing to plug the fiscal deficit.
Specifically, the government’s plan to borrow a net Tk112,000 crore directly from the domestic banking sector has triggered fresh anxieties among macroeconomists and policy analysts.
According to projections from the Finance Division, the overall budget deficit for the upcoming fiscal year will reach approximately Tk243,000 crore, representing roughly 3.6% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Any resulting shortfall in external aid historically shifts the burden straight back onto domestic commercial banks.
The implementation of the 9th pay scale will channel substantial liquidity directly to public sector employees, likely driving up consumer demand and household consumption.
While Finance Division officials believe this demand shift will stimulate domestic economic activity, economists warn that boosting consumption without a corresponding increase in production or supply lines risks fueling inflation.
Given that the central bank has spent months enforcing tight monetary controls to cool the economy, this sudden liquidity injection could complicate efforts to achieve price stability.
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