止怀の不眠夜

Just drop an invite code here, so people don’t ask later.
Anyway, I’ll just post normally what I see day to day—things, market updates, and events.
If later someone happens to be getting ready to register on Binance, and thinks the stuff I share is fine, then just conveniently use my invite code.
If you already have an account, just pretend you didn’t see it—just keep watching the content.
Invite code: 888ZH
Registration link: 注册链接
First, slowly get the account going—other things can be discussed later 🤪

$SOL In the past 7 days, it has risen more than 15%, but today it pushed up to around 117 and didn’t keep pressing higher. Derivatives’ 24-hour trading volume has already exceeded $10 billion, while spot trading is only around $1 billion.

With this structure, I’m bearish in the short term.

Earlier, SOL was pulled up fast enough from the lows, but now the price is getting stuck in the 115–117 range, and yet the futures side is still so active. CoinGlass currently shows SOL futures open interest is close to $7 billion, and in the past 24 hours it liquidated over $17 million. In this situation, I’m even more worried that high leverage will keep getting shaken out, rather than another immediate straight-line rally.

Today’s low is 112.84, and I’ll watch that first.

If 112.8 breaks again, I’ll look toward 110, and possibly the 107 area. To make me switch to long is not hard: first, reclaim 117 again—and hold it steadily, not just spike up and then drop back down.

Until 117 is truly reclaimed and closes back, I’ll stay short on this leg.

$SOL

$BTC Today it has broken below 83,000. The previous 87,300 level failed to break through twice in a row. Tomorrow it will hit an options expiry of nearly $16 billion for quarterly options. At this level, I’m standing as a short.

For this move, I’m bearish on the short term.

The issue right now isn’t whether BTC has long-term capital coming in; it’s that the short-term structure has already turned weak. 87,300 was rejected twice, and then 83,000 got smashed through again—this suggests that the selling pressure above hasn’t been digested completely.

More worryingly, on September 25th Deribit still has about $15.9 billion worth of BTC options expiring, roughly 37% of the platform’s open interest in BTC options. Expiries at this level don’t necessarily mean a drop is guaranteed, but they will amplify short-term volatility again.

For now, I’ll see whether 83,000 can be reclaimed and closed back above it.

If it can’t, I’ll continue to look for a move toward around 80,000. If afterward price can stand back above 85,000 and hold it continuously, then I’ll admit I was wrong and switch to bullish.

Until then, I’ll continue to stay bearish.

$BTC

$XRP Yesterday spot ETF net inflows were 18.04 million USD, yet today the price was directly smashed to around 1.50. It even dropped more than 7% at one point within 24 hours. I’m not going to force bullish reasons for this move.

For this round, I’m bearish on the short term.

Normally, if the ETF keeps seeing inflows, it should offer some support to the price. But now the funding data is green, while the price is actually weaker. This kind of “the news is good, but the price doesn’t buy it” is a setup I usually first respect the chart for.

Also, today XRP’s trading volume is still above $6 billion, which means it’s not that nobody is trading—there is definitely selling pressure pushing it down.

Right now I’m watching the 1.48–1.50 zone. If it can’t hold, then below that I’ll continue to look around 1.42.

If you want me to turn bullish, it’s simple: first get 1.58–1.60 back under control and then stay above it—none of that “poke it with a wick and call it a day” behavior.

I admit ETF inflows are a positive, but with today’s price reaction, I’m taking the bearish side.

$XRP

$NIL Today, the harshest part isn’t that it surged by more than 40%, but that the whole market is all red—and it still managed to carve out an independent trend on its own.

For this wave, I’m bullish on the short term.

BTC and ETH are both pulling back, yet NIL has instead kept pushing all the way above 0.11. With this kind of counter-trend strength, I won’t jump to guess the top right away. More importantly, Nillion still has a time milestone that hasn’t played out yet: the Dusk plan is set to go live on the Ethereum mainnet on September 28. There are only a few days left until it lands.

So, today’s candle isn’t just a mindless pump with no story—there are still event expectations ahead that can keep the momentum going.

Right now I’m watching the 0.095–0.10 area. As long as it pulls back without breaking support and I can still catch it, I’ll keep holding the long-side view. Above that, I’ll first focus on today’s high around 0.1155. If it breaks through, then we’ll see whether there’s a second leg of acceleration.

If, suddenly, there’s a breakdown below 0.09 on heavy volume, and the rebound can’t get back up, then I’ll switch to bearish.

Until that signal appears, I’ll continue to stand with the bulls.

$NIL

$BCH The most critical part of this move is that once the news came out, it immediately surged from around 270 to above 350. But the time when CME futures are actually planned to go live is October 19, and we still need to wait for regulatory review.

For this leg, I’m bearish on the short term.

CME listing futures for BCH is definitely a real bullish catalyst—standard contracts for 250 BCH and micro contracts for 25 BCH. This story can still be traded further afterward.

The problem is that the market has already priced in a big chunk of those expectations in advance.

BCH’s 24-hour high touched 350.7, and it has now already pulled back to around 336, turning bearish again today. Futures haven’t even started trading yet, but the price has already pumped by nearly 30% first. At this level, what I’m more afraid of is funds using the news as an excuse to lock in profits, rather than immediately putting in another big bullish candle.

For now, I’m watching the 326 area. If it can’t hold, I’ll continue to view it as a pullback/erosion move.

If you want me to turn bullish, it’s very straightforward: reclaim 350 again—and not just wick above it and fall back, but truly hold it.

Until then, I’m staying short.

$BCH

$RAY Today it’s been pushed from 1.88 up to 2.15. The 24-hour trading volume is already close to $190 million—this clearly isn’t a small move.

My direction is very clear: bullish in the short term.

What’s most interesting about RAY right now is that while the overall market is weak today, it itself can still hold strong. Over on Binance Square, the discussion is also heating up. In this situation, I don’t want to guess when it will top. I’d rather see whether the area around $2 can continue to be defended by money.

As long as it pulls back but doesn’t break down through the $1.88 breakout zone again, I’ll still look at it from a long-side structure. Retest $2.15 one more time, and it’s easy for the move to accelerate further.

If you really want me to turn bearish, it’s simple: after a run up, if it falls back and re-breaks below $1.88, and the trading volume is still expanding, then I’ll interpret today’s move more like a pump-and-dump for profit-taking.

But until that signal appears, I’m staying long.

$RAY

$ETH Last night’s dip: 4 new addresses reversed and withdrew 31,979 ETH from exchanges, worth about $85.68 million.

Moreover, these 4 addresses appear to belong to the same entity—their average pickup price is around $2,679. The market is pulling back, yet big capital is withdrawing coins from this level. I’m still fairly sensitive to this kind of move.

So for this round, I’m looking for a long in the short term.

The reason is simple: if someone truly intends to dump, they generally send coins to the exchange. This time it’s the opposite—coins are being taken out of the exchange, and in one go it’s more than $85 million. At minimum, based on this action, it shows that around the 2670 area, someone is willing to take the orders.

Next, I’ll watch two levels.

If price can hold near 2670, I’ll continue to lean bullish. Above that, first look at the resistance zone around 2775–2825. If later this batch of big capital’s pickup area is broken down through, and it still can’t be reclaimed for a long time, then I’ll admit I was wrong and switch to looking for a short.

Now let me choose a direction—I choose long.

$ETH

$HYPE I’m not chasing this wave—on short-term trades I’m actually more cautious.

I just got listed on Binance today, so the hype is definitely high. But on the same day, 5 big addresses will have un-staked 983,600 HYPE, worth roughly $90.44 million.

These coins can’t be dumped immediately. It’s expected that they won’t truly enter circulation until around October 1.

So what I’m watching right now isn’t whether “it can still surge after listing,” but whether the price can hold up over the next few days.

If this potential selling pressure is out in the open and HYPE can still stay range-bound or even move higher, then I’d consider going long.

But from this level, if you ask me to chase, I won’t.

I’d rather wait for the hype to cool down and see how the market absorbs this batch of holdings around October 1.

$HYPE

$TRX Today, this data feels more interesting than watching it rise a few percentage points.

TRON has just surpassed $3.0 trillion in cumulative transaction volume.

At first, when I saw this number, I even double-checked it. It really is $3.0 trillion, not $300 billion.

Now, on-chain there are still over $9.4 billion worth of USDT. This year alone, USDT transfers have already totaled around $600 billion.

Honestly, what’s strongest about TRON right now isn’t the “public chain story” anymore.

It’s that people are genuinely using it to move money.

Even more interesting is that the overall market today isn’t that strong, and TRX hasn’t gotten hit hard along with it. The price is still holding around 0.34.

I’d actually be more willing to be long in this kind of situation.

Fundamental data is one thing—whether the price can hold up is another.

At least for now, these two haven’t come into conflict.

I’m more on the bullish side for this one.

$TRX

$1000PEPE Not connecting this one for now.

A few days ago I saw a set of pretty nice on-chain data.

Someone has been tracking 83 PEPE whale wallets. Recently, about $34.1 million worth of chips moved out from exchanges, while only $23.6 million was deposited into exchanges. That works out to a net outflow of roughly $10.5 million.

When you see data like this, it’s easy to come up with a line like: “The whales are accumulating.”

But today PEPE still got hammered down hard—down by nearly 12%.

That actually makes me more cautious.

When whales withdraw coins, it can reduce some of the immediate spot sell pressure, but it doesn’t mean the price has to go up right away.

Now even a story like “whale net outflow from exchanges” can’t hold up the price, so I definitely don’t want to just grab a rebound because it’s down a lot.

I’ll wait until the price stops falling on its own.

For now, I’m leaning bearish.

$1000PEPE

$LINK Tomorrow early morning, I’ll keep an eye on this meeting, but I won’t start chasing it early just because “I’m in the meeting with the Federal Reserve.”

At 3:40 a.m. Beijing time, Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov will, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s fintech conference, talk with people from BlackRock and Vanguard about the “future of blockchain in traditional finance.”

This lineup is indeed solid.

But what I care about more is that the news has already been out there for a while, and LINK is still down around 6% today.

So I won’t directly translate “Sergey sitting at the same table as BlackRock” into a price-positive catalyst.

For Chainlink moving deeper into institutional finance, that’s obviously a plus.

But for LINK today, the market hasn’t bought this story—at least for now.

I’m not trading the guest list; I’m watching where the money ultimately flows.

With the meeting not even started yet, the price is already this weak—I’m currently leaning bearish.

Once after the meeting when the capital starts to move, I’ll reassess and change my view.

$LINK

$AVAX I’m not connecting this one today.

Helicon has officially gone live on the mainnet—it’s not a preview and it’s not still in testing.

There are actually quite a few changes this time.

The shortest required staking period was cut from 14 days down to 48 hours, and automatic renewal was added. The way C-Chain executes transactions and the Gas mechanism were also adjusted.

From the project’s fundamentals, this absolutely counts as a real, proper upgrade.

But what I care about more right now is what happens after the upgrade.

AVAX surged above $11 earlier on this expectation. But once it actually rolled out, today it immediately dropped by more than 8%.

That’s a bit frustrating.

When the good news hadn’t come out yet, everyone was rushing to buy. Once it’s really live, people start selling.

I don’t want to explain a market like this.

Whether Helicon has long-term value can be looked at slowly over time, but for the short-term money, the answer they’re giving right now is to cash out first.

So on AVAX, I’m more bearish—I’m not in a hurry to buy into this drop.

$AVAX

$HYPE Actually, I’m the one standing aside—more specifically, I’m taking a short position first.

Binance will officially list HYPE spot trading at 19:00 today. With a level of exchange like this opening spot, normally it should be a positive catalyst.

But the news came out this morning, and up to now HYPE hasn’t surged upward—instead, it has fallen from around $98 to about $92.

I don’t really like that.

What’s more, today there are also 5 large addresses that have started to unwind their staking at the same time, totaling 983,600 HYPE—roughly $90 million.

Note: this batch of coins still can’t be sold right now. You have to wait 7 days; it’s expected to become tradeable balance around October 1.

So I’m not saying “$90 million gets dumped immediately.”

What I care about is another issue:

With such a big positive listing catalyst right in front of us on Binance, the price still hasn’t been able to hold it—while at the same time, more potential circulating supply is coming later.

In this kind of situation, I’m not going to chase longs.

After the spot market truly opens at 19:00, if it still can’t push up, I’ll continue to hold the short side.

$HYPE

$ETH Today this market looks quite interesting—two big whales directly went hard in opposite directions.

When the market dropped last night, 4 new addresses withdrew 31,979 ETH from Coinbase within 7 minutes, worth $85.68 million, with an average price of $2,679.

Clearly, someone was taking the dip while it was falling.

But the other side was even more ruthless.

0x8c58 sold 42,005 ETH today—roughly $112 million—and now only has 9,996 ETH left.

After looking at these two transactions, I’m actually leaning slightly bearish in the short term.

Not because “the $112 million sold is more than the $85 million bought”—those two addresses can’t be compared like that anyway.

What I care about is that dip-buying of over $85 million has already appeared, yet ETH hasn’t immediately absorbed this weakness and pulled the price back.

Someone bottom-fishing is one thing; whether the market accepts it is another.

For now, I won’t follow the whales to buy.

When the buy wall truly pushes the price back up, I’ll change my view.

For this move, I’m leaning bearish.

$ETH

$SOL for now I won’t stand long on this today.

Alpenglow has already started pushing into the testnet. This isn’t a minor upgrade for Solana—the core is redoing consensus and pushing confirmation speed further down.

In Anza’s current official tracking page, Alpenglow has already been added to the testnet activation list, and Agave 4.3 has also been released.

In principle, this counts as solid technical progress.

But the problem is that the price hasn’t given it any respect.

SOL is still hovering around $115 today, down about 3% over the past 24 hours.

In this situation, I don’t really want to force the four words “major upgrade” to come up with bullish reasons for it.

The news is real, and the upgrade is real—but the money hasn’t followed yet.

So today I’d rather stay a bit bearish first.

When the market starts actually putting real money behind Alpenglow and voting for it, then I’ll change my view.

$SOL

$XRP Today I’ll stand aside first.

On the 29th, there’s a pretty key upgrade for XRPL. BatchV1_1 is already in the countdown to activation.

In simple terms, from now on you can fit up to 8 transactions into a single batch—either they all succeed together or they all fail together.

This is actually quite useful for institutional settlement, especially in scenarios where you’re transferring assets while also making payments.

But I don’t want to use this news to go long right now.

The reason is simple.

The upgrade expectation is already on everyone’s radar, and the market sentiment is so hot—but today XRP is still being pushed down around 1.5.

Good news isn’t without value, but the market for the moment isn’t using it as a reason to buy.

I already took this kind of loss yesterday. I can’t automatically go long just because there’s a positive headline.

So this time, I’ll trust the price action first.

For the short term, I’m bearish—I'll wait for it to fix this leg of weakness on its own before deciding.

$XRP

$DOGE This time I’m taking the short side.

The other day, X—just connected the Cashtag trading entry to platforms like Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini—and DOGE was quickly pumped, even hitting 0.1059 for a moment.

But today I care more about the second half.

With such a good story, 0.10 somehow wasn’t even held.

Now DOGE has already dropped back to around 0.092, down about 8% again over the past 24 hours.

And there’s something that needs to be made clear:

An official X announcement only said that in the future you can jump directly from Cashtag to partner platforms for trading. It didn’t say that X would use DOGE for payments, and it didn’t announce any special treatment for DOGE.

The earlier wave was still fueled by the old expectation of “Musk + X + DOGE.”

It’s fine if the expectation can push the price up. But once the news comes out and it can’t be held, I’m not willing to make excuses for it.

This time, I trust the price.

For DOGE, I’m leaning bearish for now—at least until 0.10 is taken back again, I’m not going to catch this bottom.

$DOGE

$META Yesterday, at this Connect event, what I cared about most wasn’t actually the new glasses.

It’s that Meta really put Muse into the glasses.

After Muse launched on September 8, in just 12 days the download count already reached 2.8 million, and Meta’s stock price also rose by more than 20%.

Now it’s pushing further into glasses—from phones and WhatsApp.

This logic I really buy.

Because if Muse ultimately were just a chat bot, it wouldn’t be much different from all the AI assistants out there right now.

But it can already help you send emails, book appointments, and make payments—next, wearing glasses means you can use it directly too. That’s when it starts moving toward a true personal Agent.

And it wasn’t just that the stock didn’t react until news came out; after Muse launched, the market really voted with money.

So for this one, I’m still on the long side.

I’m not betting on how many glasses they can sell—I’m betting that if Muse keeps rolling into Meta’s own entrance of several tens of billions of users, the room for imagination ahead hasn’t finished unfolding yet.

#AIStocksWhatNext活动

$META

$SUI This is officially up and running today.

A couple of days ago I wrote that Phantom would stop supporting Sui. Today, the 24th, is already the deadline.

Phantom’s official statement is very clear now: after the stop, you can no longer view your Sui balance in your wallet, and you also can’t send, Swap, or connect to Sui applications.

The coin hasn’t disappeared, and the chain is still running—don’t mix things up.

But what I care about more is how the market reacts on its own.

The news was public a long time ago. On the actual day it becomes effective, SUI still dropped back to around $1, and it slid a few more percentage points over the next 24 hours.

Plus, it’s still on Binance’s Plaza 6-hour Trending list as a Rapid Riser. That means it’s not that nobody’s paying attention—people are watching, but the price couldn’t hold.

So for now, I won’t try to catch this bottom.

This Phantom move can’t kill Sui, but at least today’s chart hasn’t told me, “this bearish news has already been ignored by the money.”

I’m still bearish.

$SUI