$BTC Today it has broken below 83,000. The previous 87,300 level failed to break through twice in a row. Tomorrow it will hit an options expiry of nearly $16 billion for quarterly options. At this level, I’m standing as a short.
For this move, I’m bearish on the short term.
The issue right now isn’t whether BTC has long-term capital coming in; it’s that the short-term structure has already turned weak. 87,300 was rejected twice, and then 83,000 got smashed through again—this suggests that the selling pressure above hasn’t been digested completely.
More worryingly, on September 25th Deribit still has about $15.9 billion worth of BTC options expiring, roughly 37% of the platform’s open interest in BTC options. Expiries at this level don’t necessarily mean a drop is guaranteed, but they will amplify short-term volatility again.
For now, I’ll see whether 83,000 can be reclaimed and closed back above it.
If it can’t, I’ll continue to look for a move toward around 80,000. If afterward price can stand back above 85,000 and hold it continuously, then I’ll admit I was wrong and switch to bullish.
Until then, I’ll continue to stay bearish.
$BTC
For this move, I’m bearish on the short term.
The issue right now isn’t whether BTC has long-term capital coming in; it’s that the short-term structure has already turned weak. 87,300 was rejected twice, and then 83,000 got smashed through again—this suggests that the selling pressure above hasn’t been digested completely.
More worryingly, on September 25th Deribit still has about $15.9 billion worth of BTC options expiring, roughly 37% of the platform’s open interest in BTC options. Expiries at this level don’t necessarily mean a drop is guaranteed, but they will amplify short-term volatility again.
For now, I’ll see whether 83,000 can be reclaimed and closed back above it.
If it can’t, I’ll continue to look for a move toward around 80,000. If afterward price can stand back above 85,000 and hold it continuously, then I’ll admit I was wrong and switch to bullish.
Until then, I’ll continue to stay bearish.
$BTC
