宇文逸

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Can you get rich by trading against someone who keeps blowing up their account? The 1-million-U live-trading blogger explains it all—and there's also a 50-U red packet in the article 🧧

1. If someone keeps blowing up their account, would trading against them make you rich?
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#宇文逸教学
The internet's first blogger to trade live with 1 million U explains it all with math. If you want to improve your trading, make sure to watch until the end.
To make money with your account over the long term, you need to do two things *at the same time*.
Both are essential.
1. Positive expected value trades
2. Proper position sizing
If you don't have positive expected value (+EV), you'll lose money no matter how you manage your position size.
Because every trade you make has negative expected value, your long-term results will inevitably converge toward that expectation.

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— Yu Wenyi

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From 宇文逸

Bullish

I've been walking on thin ice my whole life. Do you think I can make it to the other side? $SOXL I've lost almost 3 million R this week. The baby was supposed to be born soon, and I honestly don't know what to do.
Please let Monday bring one big +30% bullish candle.

I just hit 1,000 followers, so I can start a group chat now! Anyone who wants to come hang out can join and ride it out with me 🗿—though there’s no one in there yet. You can join from my profile.

SKHYNIX+6.89%

Bullish

Gains and losses come from the same source $SOXL

The people I feel most sorry for now are my family.

Bullish

Brothers in Korea, hang in there!

SKHYNIX+6.89%

If it closes below 117 today, I’m throwing in my last 200k and going for it 🙉. My biggest loss on a single trade this year was 250k U—this is nothing compared to that.

I generally only go long, never short. If I’m unsure, I stay out of the market. I like catching falling knives because I believe there’s only positive EV when everyone else is panic-selling.

Here are a few price levels I’d like to share.
After today’s close, I’ll buy the following at these prices:

They’re all showing prices below these levels right now, but I usually wait for the market to close before acting.

$SOXL : below 133 at close
$KORU : below 16.5 at close
$SNDK : below 1527 at close
$INTC: below 113 at close

At most, I’ll open a position equal to 60% of my principal—that’s nearly 600k U. My estimated odds are 6:4 in favor. I’m just sharing my own trades.

If Bitcoin’s daily candle closes below 815, I’ll cut my losses.

Regarding the trade we discussed yesterday: when the daily candle closes at 8:00 this morning, if it's above 106.4, I'll take profit. If it's below that, I'll hold for one more day.

INTC+5.46%

I entered $INTC . I'll add to the position once more below 100. If any daily candle closes above 106, I'll take profit.

I closed my KORU position from a few days ago.

INTC+5.46%

KORU+16.41%

10/11 anniversary. A screenshot from this day a year ago.
Just looking at it seems to bring back the trembling I felt then.
Always respect the market.

ATOM+1.52%

This trade was bought right at the bottom. Too bad only a tiny amount was filled—otherwise, this one could’ve made tens of thousands.

Ugh, it’s so frustrating. I spent hours writing an article, and nobody reads it. They’re all bots claiming red envelopes; once the envelopes are gone, the clicks dry up completely. But post a losing trade in a few seconds, and it gets tens of thousands of clicks.

DASH-1.15%

Lost 100k U within 24 hours, but after buying the dip at the bottom, I’m back to breakeven.

The crypto world is a surreal place.

In my personal opinion, buy now at $KORU . Set your take-profit and stop-loss 5% above and below, respectively. I’d say the odds of winning are around 65%.

I’ve been getting wrecked these past few days. I’ll wait a few more days before writing a tutorial, or the people on your Square will tear me apart.

KORU+16.41%

If you’ve got guts, blow it up

(Just kidding. If the daily candle closes below 81,000 I’ll cut my losses. After I’m done cutting losses and it surges up, I’ll hang myself.)

October 11 again, huh, brothers? Losing 1 million a day

Lost 30k USDT on BTC spot today; ZEC + DOGE are pumping—easy money, making back 5,000.

ZEC+0.89%

$DOGE
Thanks to the market for the free money
Made 2,000 USDT in 5 minutes—take profits and secure them

DOGE-0.21%

Paying out of my own pocket to help everyone improve their understanding #2
Sending a 6.66u red packet to anyone willing to improve their understanding

Continuing from the “expected value” discussed in my previous post:

Any “mindset,” “position management,” or “strategy” is only useful when it’s based on positive expected value.

Taking notes, reviewing your trades, watching the market 24 hours a day—all of that is useless. None of it can turn negative expected value into positive expected value. It’s just like studying patterns in banker-versus-player outcomes. The truly useful “information” requires digging a level deeper.

In my next post, I’ll explain why these things are useless, and in the one after that, I’ll explain what’s actually useful.

Today’s question: Once you’ve posted your answer and claimed your red packet, please delete your comment. If you don’t, bots will claim all the red packets in no time.

If your win rate is 50%, and you make $80 on a winning trade but lose $100 on a losing trade, what is the expected value of this trade?

If you don’t know how to calculate it, check out my previous post on my profile. There are 50 red packets, so take your time. If you like this, please give the post a like. Thanks 🙏

A lot of people say the most important things in trading are your mindset, not getting carried away, and risk management—like making sure each trade uses no more than a certain percentage of your capital… It’s all nonsense.
The most important thing in trading is having a +EV/positive-expectancy strategy.
If your trading strategy doesn’t have positive expectancy, no matter what your mindset is or how you manage your position size, you won’t make money—not even with the mindset of a Buddha.
If you don’t even know what expectancy is, or can’t explain why each trade you enter has positive expectancy, then you have no business trading.

Expectancy formula:
Probability 1 × Outcome 1 + Probability 2 × Outcome 2 + ……

For example:
If a trade has an 85% win rate, and you make $100 when you win but lose $1,000 when you lose, then the expectancy is 85% × 100 + 15% × (-1000) = -65.
This is a negative-expectancy (-EV) trade. No matter how you manage your position size, how much you adjust your mindset, or what your “strategy” is, you’ll lose money in the long run.

I’m paying out of my own pocket to help everyone improve their understanding. I’ll send a 10u red packet to anyone who’s willing to learn and improve.