At least while Powell was in charge, he could still hedge his answers while offering some forward guidance, leaving himself some wiggle room and giving the market a few clues!
Since Warsh took over, he’s gone straight to tearing down the signposts, opting for strategic ambiguity and keeping quiet.
$ETH The data is out, and it’s bearish across the board!
A few quick thoughts: PPI has usually come out before CPI, but this time it came out after CPI.
Both the monthly and annual rates were far higher than expected. CPI was bearish first, and now PPI is bearish too, raising expectations of higher prices down the road!
My take is this: PPI is the Producer Price Index. When PPI rises, production costs go up, and those costs inevitably get passed on to consumers. Today’s monthly retail sales figure showed no sign of cooling consumer spending—in fact, it came in at 0.8%. That means consumers’ willingness and ability to spend remain strong, even with prices high.
So the conclusion is: production costs, as measured by PPI, plus consumers’ spending power are both pushing inflation higher. Retail sales measure total consumer spending (excluding food services; other services are not included).
Initial jobless claims also showed no sign of a weakening labor market, adding another piece of hawkish evidence!
All three of today’s data points—PPI, monthly retail sales, and initial jobless claims—were bearish.
For reference only; this is not investment advice.#以太坊跌破2400美元 #PPI
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$ETH More data coming tonight 📊! At 8:30, the PPI and monthly retail sales figures will be released. The monthly retail sales figure has been revised. I’m not making predictions about the data—I'll take a closer look after it’s released!
After that, Fed Chair Warsh will speak. This is one to watch: after the CPI release, we’ll see whether Warsh’s remarks go with the data or aim to steady the markets.#以太坊跌破2400美元
$ETH More data coming tonight 📊! At 8:30, the PPI and monthly retail sales figures will be released. The monthly retail sales figure has been revised. I’m not making predictions about the data—I'll take a closer look after it’s released!
After that, Fed Chair Warsh will speak. This is one to watch: after the CPI release, we’ll see whether Warsh’s remarks go with the data or aim to steady the markets.#以太坊跌破2400美元
I interpret this CPI release as a severe negative, because the core annual rate not only beat expectations, but also exceeded the previous value! Most importantly, it seems there was no downward revision this time, which proves this data is genuine. Since the annual rate often affects the long term, I interpret it as a rather severe negative. For reference only, not investment advice!#以太坊跌破2500美元 #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
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Haven’t seen many people calling for a bull run lately—maybe that’s because prices have stopped rising! Sentiment only runs high when prices are going up; it rises quickly and fades just as fast. October is nearly halfway over, and the crowd that expected prices to rise in October after September has gone quiet too.
Major coins are expected to break out of their range after tomorrow evening’s CPI report. U.S. stocks have also been acting a little weird these past couple of days. Let’s wait! Once the key data is released, we’ll see how the market reacts and then decide which way to go all in. #SK海力士股价下跌7.1%
$CL Yesterday I was following oil prices and PONS, thinking I’d keep an eye on them! But just sitting there watching wasn’t much fun, so I decided to watch some short dramas. I ended up binge-watching two series—1,500 episodes in all. I used to think uninstalling games would help me kick the habit, but it turns out these Hongguo short dramas are even more addictive than games. 🙂↔️ The day before yesterday, I saw the news that PineDrama, a ByteDance app, had surpassed 100 million downloads in about nine months since launch, with around 7 million daily active users! Today the related stocks took off, and Fuchun shot straight up 20%. Looks like we’re all getting hooked on short dramas together. 🤣
Haven’t seen many people calling for a bull run lately—maybe that’s because prices have stopped rising! Sentiment only runs high when prices are going up; it rises quickly and fades just as fast. October is nearly halfway over, and the crowd that expected prices to rise in October after September has gone quiet too.
Major coins are expected to break out of their range after tomorrow evening’s CPI report. U.S. stocks have also been acting a little weird these past couple of days. Let’s wait! Once the key data is released, we’ll see how the market reacts and then decide which way to go all in. #SK海力士股价下跌7.1%
U.S. Treasuries continue to weigh heavily on the market!
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Tonight’s PCE comes out—briefly discuss U.S. Treasuries, oil prices, Iran-Iraq, and inflation!
It’s here—haven’t posted for several days. I really missed everyone. Tonight, the PCE data will be released—let’s talk briefly! The following content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice, nor does it represent a short-term view. Based on the data we can currently see, core inflation is still too high and highly sticky! In the past few days, Federal Reserve officials’ remarks have been the most hawkish. Therefore, in my view, tonight’s PCE cannot provide data that the market would consider “good news.” With no increase or decrease, it still remains at a high level. My baseline assessment: this time, core PCE will most likely stay elevated at roughly the same level. It’s hard to expect a clear decline; overall, it leans hawkish.
$ETH Yesterday's analysis is still fresh in my mind, and today it came crashing down hard! I've been posting fewer analyses lately because they're too focused on macro trends and don't appeal to a broad audience. I can only explain things when someone asks.#比特币三度受阻8.7万美元