Geopolitics: The U.S. military launched a nighttime strike on Iran. The situation in the Middle East has heated up again. Be mindful of risk sentiment; sustainability is the key.
Key macro events to watch this week Wednesday: ADP “mini non-farm” payrolls. Its reference value is limited; the market focus remains on Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Thursday: U.S. initial jobless claims data; Fed Governor Waller interview; and at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the release of the Fed Beige Book (high attention). Friday: Non-farm employment data + unemployment rate—this week’s core data. Two main focus points this week: the Fed Beige Book and the non-farm employment report. Labor market resilience remains a crucial factor affecting the Fed’s rate-cut timing.
Technical analysis BTC weekly chart has continued to face pressure in the 78,000–80,000 range. This zone is an important “positioning/chokepoint” turning-pressure area. ETH’s weekly chart is under pressure from the MA200 moving average. Whether it can hold above 2,500 will be treated as a short-term trend reversal signal. For smaller time frames, you can refer to the support levels based on the distribution range of holdings.
Additional macro themes to keep in mind Continue to track developments in the U.S. Treasury market. In earlier remarks, Bessent mentioned starting long-term bond repurchase operations on September 9. Market pricing will likely reflect this ahead of time. BTC-ETF fund flows remain a core indicator of market direction. During this upswing, institutional capital (especially BlackRock’s IBIT) was the main buying driver. If, going forward, net inflows into ETFs slow down or stall, be alert to the risk of waning bullish momentum. The above is for observation notes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
From this wave of the stretch point to after the mid-term, and from the start of the mid-term! In the 10 pieces of news I can see, at least 6 are telling me that the bear market is over and the bull market is here. And among these 6, basically they’re voices from some of the top big names in the crypto world—not KOLs—and even the CEO of an exchange has spoken.
But right now, I really can’t find the evidence or basis for the bear market ending and the bull market starting. Maybe my understanding at the ground level is not enough.
The market is starting to cool off. We also don’t expect tonight’s impact from the PCE to be too big! Because Wall Street is already preparing for the midterm elections, and attention has started shifting to this week’s Jackson Hole Fed symposium and the uncertainties surrounding the midterm election. Everyone is speculating about what Waller might signal at the central bank conference, but since taking the stage, he basically hasn’t signaled anything!😅#PCE
It’s pretty much a toss-up. Before Besant has actual cash-backed buyback of U.S. Treasuries, his policies can only make the market react emotionally—let’s see how it plays out once it’s actually implemented. #BTC触及80000美元
绣虎_Tiger Charts
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If the rebound doesn’t get going, then my viewpoint holds true!
I managed to stand firm around 80,000 just by riding on emotions. I accept it—I can’t earn this money.
Brothers, making or losing—it's the norm. But if you chose to get itchy and play on the weekend, what do you do?! How can there be no losing? Right after getting liquidated 🙂↔️🤣
There’s nothing really important that needs your attention—I just don’t like posting! It’s the same in the community: once the strategy is delivered and the important parts are explained, I won’t say more. If one sentence can make it clear, I won’t use two—unless it’s a teaching or knowledge-sharing session, where I’ll naturally say a bit more. You can’t one-on-one hand-feed someone, and you also can’t be a full-time babysitter. I’ve taught you everything—now it’s up to you to go play with it. Book theory can’t serve for market judgment—only your own practice can turn it into truth! I’ll set the big framework as a safety net, keep an eye on things, and give timely reminders—that’s enough.
What the hell—are a few tens of thousands really that expensive? 😅 Then I’m still too much of a normal civilian with my few hundred bucks—street market price!
Just finished answering a question in the chat room this morning. Although my answer is a bit countercyclical for the current market, I still follow my instincts to answer. If I told him it’s a bull market, he would have just charged in. Then earlier there was a wave of selling pressure—I was stunned again 😅
I haven’t posted any strategies for almost a month! Now when I review the previous strategies, I can only give them 20 points. I lose 20 points—nobody is following the public trend strategy, so the account isn’t doing well and there’s no trust. Then I lose another 60 points myself, because nobody followed it, and I became emotionally unstable; I couldn’t hold my ground either.
What disappoints me the most is that several members proactively came to ask me for my entries, and then only a few actually followed and bought. That part isn’t a big deal—I don’t really care if I’m not making money with them.
But once I’ve given you the exact buy-the-dip entry levels, and you don’t buy, yet every day you still keep asking me for entry points and constantly questioning my strategy direction—I get really annoyed. And that then causes things to get messy, leading to mistakes, losing money, and a chain reaction. My real mindset—maybe not everyone will listen, but it’s still the truth.