WonderBTC

October is on the way, and the crypto community already has a nickname for expressing its expectation: Uptober. The reputation of a month that favors Bitcoin has a basis. In the ten most recent full Octobers, from 2016 to 2025, BTC closed the month higher eight times and lower twice.
The biggest gains of this period occurred in 2017, when Bitcoin rose 49.01%, and in 2021, with 39.94%. October also brought strong gains in 2020 (27.66%) and 2023 (28.55%). In the other positive years—2016, 2019, 2022, and 2024—the increases were smaller, but they reinforced the month’s reputation.

A new bull market could open an exciting phase for the crypto market. If the uptrend gains strength, Bitcoin tends to return to center stage, while established projects such as Ethereum, Solana, and BNB may also attract investors. There are reasons to follow this movement with optimism. The challenge will be to seize opportunities without letting euphoria take the place of judgment.
It is precisely during uptrends that FOMO—fear of missing out—becomes stronger. When a freshly launched memecoin jumps hundreds or thousands of percent, anyone looking at the chart thinks about the profit they would have made if they had bought earlier. But there is a difference between recognizing an opportunity at the beginning and discovering it after it has already drawn in a crowd.

The movement that had been taking shape finally confirmed itself. After forming a Golden Cross on the daily chart, Bitcoin also broke above the 50-week moving average, combining two important technical signals of recovery. Taken in isolation, no indicator offers guarantees, but when they appear in sequence and are accompanied by price appreciation, they begin to build a clearly more optimistic scenario.
The Golden Cross, formed by the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average, was the first sign that the trend was starting to change. Next, the break above the 50-week moving average reinforced this reading. When Bitcoin comes out of a bear market, the consistent recovery of this long-term indicator has historically been a positive sign, suggesting that selling pressure was losing strength and that buyers were beginning to take control again.

In just a few days, Bitcoin faced two developments the market considered potentially negative. First, the CLARITY Act failed to move forward in the U.S. Senate, delaying the creation of clearer rules for the cryptocurrency sector. Then, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage point, to the 3.75% to 4.00% range, making government bonds more attractive and, in principle, reducing investors’ appetite for risk assets.
The combination seemed perfect to trigger a sharp drop. However, that didn’t happen. After backing down with the project’s defeat, Bitcoin found buyers in the region between US$ 75 thousand and US$ 76 thousand and showed a relatively moderate reaction to the Fed’s decision. Some of this resilience may be explained by the fact that both developments were already expected, but that doesn’t diminish the importance of price behavior: even with the bad news confirmed, no new intense wave of selling emerged.

The U.S. Senate did not advance the CLARITY Act, but this decision, although negative for the crypto market in a broad sense, could end up being positive for Bitcoin. The proposal failed to secure the 60 votes needed to proceed and, given the U.S. election calendar, should remain stalled for a considerable amount of time. Thus ends a discussion that had been keeping investors trapped in rumors, political negotiations, and successive changes to the text.
The chances of approval already seemed small. On one side, the banking lobby resisted primarily the rules that could benefit stablecoin companies and expand competition with traditional deposits. On the other, Democrats would hardly back legislation that could favor Donald Trump, no matter how many concessions Republicans made, while the president and his family maintain strong financial interests in the crypto sector. In this political environment, the technical quality of the proposal became less important than the partisan dispute and the economic interests involved.

Bitcoin has just confirmed on the daily chart one of the most well-known formations in technical analysis: the Golden Cross. The signal occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses upward from below the 200-day moving average, indicating that the medium-term trend has gained enough strength to surpass the long-term reference. Historically, this setup is often interpreted positively, but that doesn’t mean the price will necessarily surge in the coming days.
In reality, the Golden Cross is a lagging indicator: it appears after Bitcoin has already accumulated a considerable gain. Because of this, it’s relatively common to see profit-taking right after the crossover. That’s what happened in October 2024, when BTC pulled back 2.9% the following week, and in May 2025, when it fell 5.2% over the same period. After the October 2023 cross, Bitcoin rose 1.5% in seven days, showing that an initial correction is frequent, but not guaranteed.

The United States Senate will hold, on September 15, a procedural vote that could determine the future of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act. The proposal aims to create a national regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market, establishing clearer criteria for distinguishing securities from digital commodities and outlining the powers of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The vote, however, will not represent the final approval of the bill, but will decide whether the Senate can formally begin its review.

Bitcoin may form a golden cross on its daily chart tomorrow, September 8. The signal occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses above the 200-day average, indicating that the recent recovery has gained enough strength to overcome the long-term trend. The averages are very close, but the crossover still needs to be effectively confirmed and could be delayed if the price suffers a sharper drop.
At the same time, Bitcoin is trying to break through another important indicator: the 50-week moving average, currently near $79.7 thousand. After acting as resistance during the recovery, this average represents a kind of dividing line between the downtrend and a possible more consistent resumption of the bull market. More important than briefly moving above it will be managing to close the week above it and, preferably, turning it into support in the following weeks.

Since the emergence of Bitcoin, thousands of cryptocurrencies have been created promising faster transactions, lower fees, greater privacy, or more advanced functionalities. Some have even reached billion-dollar market values, but none has managed to take away from Bitcoin its position as the sector’s main monetary reference. For Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard, this is no coincidence: Bitcoin has historical, economic, and political characteristics that would be difficult to reproduce by a currency created later.

Twenty-one of the world’s largest financial institutions announced a joint project to launch a new dollar-denominated stablecoin. The group plans to set up an independent company in the second half of 2026, still subject to meeting certain conditions, and to put the digital coin into circulation in the first half of 2027. The initiative represents progress compared with the project presented in October 2025, when only ten banks were studying the feasibility of creating a form of digital money backed by reserves and available on public blockchains.