In just a few days, Bitcoin faced two developments the market considered potentially negative. First, the CLARITY Act failed to move forward in the U.S. Senate, delaying the creation of clearer rules for the cryptocurrency sector. Then, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage point, to the 3.75% to 4.00% range, making government bonds more attractive and, in principle, reducing investors’ appetite for risk assets.

The combination seemed perfect to trigger a sharp drop. However, that didn’t happen. After backing down with the project’s defeat, Bitcoin found buyers in the region between US$ 75 thousand and US$ 76 thousand and showed a relatively moderate reaction to the Fed’s decision. Some of this resilience may be explained by the fact that both developments were already expected, but that doesn’t diminish the importance of price behavior: even with the bad news confirmed, no new intense wave of selling emerged.

When an asset receives negative news and stops falling with the expected intensity, the market sends an important message. This may indicate that much of the selling pressure has already been exerted, that the risks were already priced in, and that the more conviction-driven investors used the dip to buy. It is still not possible to say that the correction has ended, but the preservation of support in such an unfavorable environment reveals strength that should not be ignored.

The next levels will be decisive. If Bitcoin remains above $75 thousand and progressively regains the $78 thousand and $80 thousand regions, it will increase the likelihood that the market has absorbed the worst short-term scenario. The CLARITY Act stalled, the Fed raised interest rates, and even so, Bitcoin held its ground. Perhaps the most optimistic news is not what happened, but what many expected and did not happen: Bitcoin did not crash. And with the approach of the traditionally positive “Uptober,” this resistance may be setting the stage for a much more favorable October.

This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.