Changxin Technology to start trading tomorrow at the open—overseas AI giants face a “major test” with earnings reports
Next week will be the last trading week of this month. The market is about to enter two super critical phases: First, the A-share’s top annual IPO, Changxin Technology, officially begins trading on the STAR Market, directly reshaping the competitive landscape of China’s storage industry;
Second, the world’s three major storage players plus the U.S.-listed AI heavyweights collectively release their earnings reports. With synchronized momentum on both the domestic and overseas fronts, it directly sets the medium-term outlook for the semiconductor and technology sectors.
Most funds within the circle are basically waiting and building up strength this week; the market will completely pick up pace starting tomorrow.
▶️ Changxin’s IPO subscription (new share) return gradient
Changxin’s issue price is 8.66 yuan per share. On the STAR Market, one lot is fixed at 500 shares. To participate requires principal of 4,330 yuan, and the initial market value at listing is 57.92 billion yuan.
A stunning World Cup performance won over Cape Verde’s national team goalkeeper Vozinea and sealed his new employer. Reports from multiple overseas media outlets indicate that on July 24, the leadership of Chilean powerhouse Colo-Colo confirmed externally that the club has reached a signing agreement in principle with this 40-year-old goalkeeper.
At this World Cup in North America (Canada/USA/Mexico), Vozinea became the tournament’s most talked-about dark-horse figure thanks to a series of seemingly nonstop extreme saves on his goal line. The surge in popularity is clearly reflected in online data: his followers on social media rose from 500,000 before the tournament to 29.52 million, and his transfer-market valuation also climbed from €50,000 to €500,000.
Club chairman Moza revealed externally that Vozinea is about to travel to Chile to complete his medical tests, before then making his official debut for the team. In his view, the competitive level the goalkeeper showcased on the World Cup stage is enough to match the signing, while the player’s extremely high fan appeal can also bring significant commercial value to the club.
Previously, Vozinea played in Portugal’s second division. As the core defensive line for Cape Verde in their first ever appearance at a World Cup, he shut out Spain—the team that went on to win the tournament—and helped the squad earn a draw. In the knockout stage, he also stubbornly held back the runner-up Argentina, forcing the opponent into a painful extra-time battle. After the tournament concluded, in the FIFA Best XI selected by fans, Vozinea was successfully named the tournament’s best goalkeeper.
A friend of mine recently wants to give a gift worth over 1,000 yuan. According to past habits, it’s very likely she’ll choose cosmetics. This time, she happened to hear that Moutai’s official app, “i Moutai,” allows you to buy Moutai wine with authenticity guaranteed. She decided to buy a bottle of Moutai to give as a gift. 1. She picked a Year of the Horse Moutai bottle. It’s 200 yuan more than Feitian (just 1,899 made), but it looks far more premium. 2. When the wine arrived, she was extremely excited. She felt the bottle looks like it has a deep cultural background. The bottle is carved with a poem by Li Shimin, written by a contemporary famous calligrapher. The design includes the 28 lunar mansions, seals carved in the Bingwu seal-script style, and a horse stepping on clouds—painted by a renowned artist. 3. The Year of the Horse Moutai can be reserved for the production date. She thought the production date printed at the neck of the bottle is also very delicate, and it’s marked in the lunar calendar, which makes it especially meaningful. When giving it as a gift, you can choose a meaningful date to give to someone. 4. She told me how the recipient felt after receiving the gift. The recipient’s first sentence was: “Moutai is very precious.” She later thought that in the minds of ordinary people, Moutai wine represents something very precious—something that most normal households don’t really have. The more she thought about it, the happier she became. It was a really good gifting experience. If she had given cosmetics of the same value, she wouldn’t have gotten that feeling at all. 5. Summary: Moutai is the safest gift. You don’t have to worry that the other person won’t like it. There’s no expiration date— the longer it’s stored, the more valuable it becomes. Even in the worst case, if they don’t like it, it’s still easy to turn it into cash.
Always-on closed-loop liquidity—explained clearly the core advantages of bStocks
In the market, there is a common one-sided understanding of #bStocks流动性 : judging whether liquidity is strong or weak by using the traditional order-book depth at the open of U.S. stocks, and comparing it to成交 on the bStocks chain. This comparison method is not rigorous; it overlooks the core logic of Binance’s dual-product system. bStocks is not an independent tokenized stock product. Instead, it complements Binance Stocks to form a complete, end-to-end ecosystem—perfectly addressing the key shortcoming of traditional U.S. stock market liquidity. ▶️ Two sets of products complement each other, enabling round-the-clock asset liquidity - Binance Stocks: Captures the core liquidity during the U.S. stock market opening hours, connects to the traditional secondary market, and has mature order-book depth and a pricing system—meeting users’ regular equity holdings, large-transaction, and rights needs.
Market recap last week|AI enters a heavy-asset cycle, and valuation logic is being restructured
Last week, the Nasdaq wavered and moved lower. The Mag7 saw a sharp pullback, and the storage sector remained under sustained pressure. The market’s rebound/decline is not due to weakening industry fundamentals; the key change is that the market’s tolerance threshold for AI capital investment is steadily decreasing. ▶️ I. The cash-flow trap behind financial results Google and Tesla were among the first to release earnings reports, with revenue figures coming in above market expectations. Investors’ focus is no longer on growth rate, but on the sustained expansion in capital expenditures: 1. Google raises its full-year capex guidance; free cash flow turns negative for the first time 2. Tesla’s margins come under pressure, compounded by high investment levels, while cash flow declines in parallel.
Micron (MU) current trend—rambling thoughts: the tail end of distribution + the early stage of decline
Let’s talk about Micron’s current order-book conditions 📉. Current stock price: $920.95. The intraday decline is 6.72%. Trading volume has broken 40 million shares. This is a clear example of a high-volume sell-off, not a normal minor pullback.
Recently, the stock price has dropped from over 1000 down to 920. Many investors may develop the idea of staging a bargain hunt, but based on the order-book structure, the market is currently in the phase after the distribution of shares is complete and has entered the early stage of a decline.
1⃣ Abnormal volume and price at the high end: institutions have quietly been distributing shares for a while
The high-level consolidation over the past two weeks can easily make people think the market has stabilized. In reality, during this period, every time the price makes a push higher, there are signs of institutional distribution. Volume and price data can directly reflect capital flows.
More than a decade ago, when people were flipping copies of houses, the land was auctioned at a record price, and market heat didn’t cool down. But it slowly started to collapse once developers began stockpiling land without building houses.
Now storage fabs are making so much money—Micron’s net profit in the second quarter even surpassed Nvidia’s. In other words, foreigners are being obedient; if Nvidia decided to make money no matter what, it could just buy and stock up on storage from your Micron/Hynix side, and then resell it to AMD and other GPU makers. Wouldn’t it be even more profitable than it is now? Is that reasonable? Keeping inventories isn’t necessarily reasonable; a crash takes time. I’m not trying to be bearish on storage—I’m just describing this kind of lopsided reality. It’s not reasonable.
AI Mainline Tracking|Google’s spending spree shocks the market, and capital continues to pour into AI infrastructure
Last night, overall US stocks saw an increase in RISK-OFF sentiment: the Nasdaq pulled back, the market action was extremely divergent, Mag7 stocks faced collective pressure, while AI infrastructure strengthened against the trend. The main trigger was Google’s earnings report. Cloud business growth remains strong, but Google substantially raised capital expenditures, causing cash flow to turn negative.
▶️ Current rundown of the strong AI infrastructure sector - AI power and data center equipment: The entire segment closed higher across the board. The fundamentals are solid: the expansion of compute clusters drives a strong demand for power-supporting infrastructure. Related companies’ orders and revenue data continue to grow rapidly, with demand visibility at a high level. - Optical communication network hardware: Among AI hardware subsectors, this is currently the strongest by momentum. Core names have continued to surge, delivering excess returns. In addition, Nokia’s earnings report has provided validation of demand for AI compute interconnect, meaning the rally is not merely a rebound from oversold levels. - Storage chip sector: Multiple stocks have shown consecutive repair moves, but the overall monthly decline is still present. At this stage, it’s best defined as a temporary rebound, and the industry-cycle recovery signals still need to be continuously confirmed.
💡 Also after hours, Intel’s earnings came in above expectations. Revenue in its data center and AI businesses looked impressive, and the Q3 outlook is broadly positive—further confirming that compute demand isn’t limited to GPUs. Server CPU compute demand is also strong, which could help spread the semiconductor sector repair rally.
▶️ Short-term view on the sustainability of the market—watch three key clues. First, whether AI infrastructure can keep outperforming Mag7. GEV, ETN, ANET, and CRDO are continuously setting new highs in relative strength, indicating the capital rotation logic is still in place. Second, whether GPU leaders like NVDA and SMH can stabilize and rebound. Only if the core compute-power sector strengthens can the repair rally expand from pockets into the broader AI hardware complex. Third, capital expenditure and free cash flow data in each cloud provider’s earnings. Google has exposed the market’s core contradiction. Next, for MSFT, META, and AMZN, the scale of capital投入 and the pace of AI monetization matter far more than whether revenue beats expectations alone.
Overall, market sentiment remains fairly cautious. For the AI mainline to fully get underway, there is still a lack of catalysts. In the near term, the market will most likely maintain a structurally divergent pattern. Focus first on the upstream infrastructure segments with stronger order certainty. $GOOGL $NVDA.US
$TSLA fsd The road to truly unsupervised autonomous driving is hard to navigate; even Optimus Prime can’t be massively deployed in just a few short years. The grand promises become harder and harder to fulfill. Buying in now carries extremely high risk—there’s no room for any error. If it’s delayed again and then overtaken by later entrants, it will face a massive valuation drop
To study the underlying nature of things, the underlying principle is that prices will fluctuate around the price. These fluctuations exhibit a certain periodicity. The fundamental reason for the periodicity lies in uncertainty about the future and human nature.
It’s very difficult to try to accurately chase prices. What matters most is the ability to assess value. If you have that ability, you will: 1. Find great companies that can continuously create value. 2. Since you understand the approximate range of value, you can also make a basically accurate judgment on whether the market has deviated too much from the company. 3. Based on how far the price deviates from value, make arrangements and strategies for positions, portfolios, and so on.
There is no golden formula for this. The prerequisite for any strategy is that you can at least accurately identify the nature (qualitatively) of the deviation. The core of the strategy is evaluating the risk–opportunity ratio.
In the end, we’ll find that everything is still built on the fundamentals: the ability to evaluate a company’s value. Evaluating a company’s value requires a set of effective methodologies.
This is the foundation. Any attempt to bypass this foundation will fail—don’t waste your time.
Trying to face the market without understanding a company’s value, relying only on psychological building, is truly miserable.
First, get everything straight and unify the current picture: all of the major tech companies’ earnings reports have genuinely validated that AI compute demand is being concretely fulfilled. However, cloud providers have collectively raised capital expenditures sharply, with free cash flow under pressure. Upstream chip and storage vendors are seeing a broad-based rise in pricing, with profits continuing to reach record highs. Meanwhile, there is a clear split between the hot and cold segments across the upstream and downstream. ▶️ I. The four major global cloud giants (AI demand is being realized, but they’re wildly burning cash on infrastructure) 1. Alphabet (Google, released Q2 after-hours at 7.22) Total revenue was 119.8 billion, up 24% year over year. Total net profit was 112.1 billion (including unrealized gains on securities). The key highlight is Google Cloud. In a single quarter, revenue reached 24.768 billion, up 82% year over year. Operating profit was 8.814 billion, and the profit margin climbed to 35.6%. Enterprise AI orders directly propped up growth, and the pace of AI commercialization exceeded market expectations.
7.23 Global Market Morning News|The Dow Falls for 10 Straight Days, Setting a Record; Tech and Chips Rebound Broadly
1. Key Overnight U.S. Market Performance The three major indexes diverged sharply, with funds collectively rotating from traditional blue-chip sectors to technology growth. The Dow closed lower for 10 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest losing streak in history, with a total monthly decline of 2%. Only 12 of the 39 constituent stocks finished in the green. Consumer and finance bellwethers such as Visa, Home Depot, and Procter & Gamble led the decline. The S&P 500 edged up 0.25%, the Nasdaq rose 1.07%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.09%. Tech leaders strengthened across the board: TSMC ADR, Nvidia, Apple, and Google all moved higher, as capital flowed back into the AI semiconductor theme.
2. Asia-Pacific Morning Trading Japan and South Korea opened significantly higher. A rebound in semiconductor sentiment lifted the indexes. In South Korea, the KOSPI opened up 2.48%, holding above 7,000. Samsung and SK Hynix rose. Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened up 1.4%, and intraday gains expanded to 2.12%.
3. Quick Snapshot of Yesterday’s A-Share Trading Overall trading was choppy and leaned weaker, with thinner volume and a strong wait-and-see mood. The Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, ChiNext, and STAR Market 50 all closed lower. Only the CSI 300 inched up 0.09%. The offshore tech rebound did not yet transmit to domestic markets; investors are waiting for today’s industrial data release. Overseas reference: FTSE A50 night session +0.27%. Offshore RMB weakened slightly to 7.3228.
4. Commodities at a Glance Geopolitical factors provided a floor for crude oil, while gold saw profit-taking and pulled back from high levels. WTI crude rose 0.87%, and Brent crude rose 0.47%. Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to support oil prices at elevated levels. On the COMEX, gold and silver fell in tandem. Spot gold dipped to a low of 4,099 USD. The main drivers for the decline were a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking by long positions.
5. Key Catalysts to Watch Today SpaceX will release its first-quarter earnings after going public on August 4 and hold an Investor Day. Starlink and Starship data are the market’s main focus. In July, institutional research visits on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board were concentrated on semiconductors, computing power, and AI applications. Medium- to long-term capital continues to build positions in the hardware sector. Today at 4:00 PM, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will release core industrial data for the second quarter. Pay attention to the production and sales momentum of the manufacturing sector, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots.
6. Summary of the Main Trading Theme The global capital rotation is clear: investors have moved away from traditional consumer and finance blue chips, and have added exposure across markets to AI and memory chips. In the near term, key variables are concentrated in domestic industrial data and geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. Crowding in the technology sector remains elevated, so volatility risks should be watched.
After Google’s earnings report came out, the stock price fell, but Micron and SK hynix—the chip makers—rose instead. The reason is simple: Google Cloud’s business boomed, with revenue far exceeding expectations, proving that AI compute demand is real. Orders were so plentiful they couldn’t even keep up, so they had to rent others’ computing capacity. So upstream hardware suppliers benefited steadily. But Google itself dropped, because to race to build out AI infrastructure, capital expenditures surged, causing free cash flow to turn negative for the first time—and it even needed to raise funds by issuing debt. Investors are worried that the investment is too large and the returns are too slow. The essence of this story is: cloud giants burn cash to expand infrastructure, while the upstream “shovel sellers” make a full pot of profit. As long as the giants can’t stop buying, hardware prosperity will still have momentum. But whether Google can keep up in model competitiveness is the key to whether this round of investment will end well. $GOOGL $MU
As this chess game of South Korea’s storage industry goes on, it looks more and more like a high-stakes gamble with no way out
Saying that South Korea is betting its life on it might be a bit exaggerated, but saying they’ve staked the fate of the nation isn’t far off at all. The country’s economic lifelines, its stock market weight, and the savings of ordinary people are all tied to these two ships—Samsung and SK Hynix. If the ship capsizes, there’s no lifeboat underneath.
▶️ An industrial chess match over how to re-distribute semiconductor profits in the United States
This has to be traced back about forty years. Back then, the United States supported Samsung and SK Hynix, using Korean hands to topple Japan’s DRAM monopoly. After Japan’s semiconductor industry went under, Samsung and SK Hynix expanded all the way—so that today the two together account for the vast majority of global DRAM and NAND share. In particular, in high-end HBM, they’re even close to a monopoly. When the AI wave arrived, HBM became a necessity in the computing era. With Korean companies holding the pricing power, their profits began to grow explosively. The old tacit understanding that profits would obediently flow to American capital was broken.
On Tuesday, the storage sector launched a fierce rebound. A round of oversold repair directly pierced through pessimistic sentiment
▶️ Tuesday’s market picture On Tuesday, U.S. stocks in the storage space rallied across the board, with rebound strength far exceeding prior pessimistic expectations. The storage-specific ETF surged 10.91% in a single day. All individual stocks gained by double digits: SanDisk led with 14.27%, SK hynix rose 13.75%, Western Digital climbed 12.51%, Micron gained 12.17%, and Seagate jumped 11.14%. No companies lagged. This surge is not an isolated reaction by a few stocks. Instead, the entire storage sector synchronously saw money flow back in. It quickly pulled the sector that had fallen into bearish territory in the prior few days back into a repair uptrend, and the bullish follow-through strength is clearly visible.
▶️ Multiple real risks that constrain the continuation of the rebound First, this rally is merely a short-term replenishment by oversold capital. The amount of trapped shares from earlier periods is massive. Even with only a modest rebound in share prices, traders may quickly take profits and exit en masse. With no sustained increase in trading volume to provide support, the durability of the next wave of bullish capital is questionable. Second, the long-term pressure from new production capacity has not disappeared. Samsung and SK hynix have both announced large-scale expansion plans. New capacity is set to come online in a concentrated way around 2027. Once supply expands, the logic of current storage price hikes will quickly weaken. Third, macro risks remain persistent. U.S. Treasury yields are staying at high levels. Inflation and geopolitical developments can disrupt tech stock valuations at any time. Overvalued storage names are extremely sensitive to interest-rate fluctuations. Fourth, demand for storage on the consumer end has remained weak for the long run. The recovery in the smartphone and PC markets has not met expectations. Relying on the AI single-track to drive demand leaves little room for error. If AI capital expenditure growth slows, industry sentiment will deteriorate rapidly.
$DEXE Just two days ago, I saw the large holder HexTrust transfer 118 million units of the $DEXE token into two new wallets. The total value is about $4.22 million. Immediately after that, they moved these tokens into LBank.
As of now, HexTrust still holds 460,000 tokens, worth approximately $15.59 million.
And based on the on-chain data tracking just now, around 2:00 PM on the 20th, 12 new wallets were created, all associated with HexTrust. Within two hours, these wallets had received small sell-order test tokens in batches. Of those, 4.22 million tokens were already transferred to LBank.
On the 21st, they started to cash out and harvest. HexTrust still has a lot of inventory on hand. This kind of liquidation-style dumping—it's best not to take the bait.
1.2 million people lining up and the market going bust: South Korean retail investors’ nationwide “gambling” finally collapsed
Young people in South Korea put their life savings into AI chip stocks—only to have leveraged positions blow up, triggering a chain of circuit breakers and leaving 1.2 million people with nothing to show for it.
It’s like a group of gamblers borrowing money to place bets, wagering on two stocks—Samsung and SK hynix—which account for 60% of the Korean stock market. Many bought “2x leveraged ETFs,” effectively borrowing another 1x to trade. When the stock price falls by 5%, the system forcibly sells to maintain the leverage ratio—further dragging the price down, triggering margin liquidations for more people who had borrowed to trade. This creates a “fall → sell → fall again” death spiral. Within just a few weeks, the South Korean stock market triggered circuit breakers 7 times—more than the total in the past 20-plus years.
Financial instruments can amplify gains, but they can also instantly consume everything you have. Don’t wager your life and your fortune on the “gambling table.” $SAMSUNG $SKHY
The market is once again trading the idea of a Fed rate hike
Recently, the market has started trading a familiar topic again: will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates again?
With oil prices rising, U.S. Treasury yields climbing, the dollar strengthening, and risk assets under pressure, funds began rapidly adjusting expectations. The market had just started pricing in a rate-cut cycle, but as energy price volatility increased and concerns about inflation warmed up, discussions about a 25-basis-point rate hike in September have once again returned to the center of market attention.
Over the past few years, the Federal Reserve has become a core variable in global asset pricing. With every rise in oil prices and every time inflation data shows signs of backtracking, the market immediately thinks about whether monetary policy might need to pivot again.
Does Kimi K3 count as a second DeepSeek moment? The trading tape and industry reality are, in fact, two different things.
Last Friday, the overall market index was directly hammered down. The main trigger on the trading screen was that earlier there had been too much capital crowded into semiconductors. Once the degree of crowding hit its peak, any small piece of news or movement would trigger a collective exit. The industry shock brought by the launch of Kimi K3 was also used by capital as an excuse for another round of killing valuations. Internally, the market has already started pricing the entire AI main theme using the idea of bursting the bubble. To be objective, at this stage K3’s overall capabilities haven’t yet reached the level of Claude Fable. But the pace of catch-up is clearly visible, and overseas top-tier vendors have genuinely started to feel the pressure. An OpenAI executive responsible for the strategy division specifically commented on Kimi K3, noting that the core insights are highly reference-worthy. He said he never expected that China could produce an open-source large model with such a complete specification. He also proposed that before deploying a high-capability model, a full risk assessment should be completed and only then should it be released externally. This approach is similar to the control logic used by leading model companies in the US. Fundamentally, it’s not merely a restriction from a stance perspective; it’s more of a set of upfront constraints based on the model’s capability boundaries and potential downstream risks. It’s enough to show that this K3 release has stirred quite a bit of commotion within overseas industry circles.
Stock price breaks below the offering price, deep retreat as the short sellers intensively slam the market over 10 days $SPCX
▶️ After one month of listing, the stock price undergoes a deep pullback, with risk re-evaluation occurring in both stocks and bonds. Just 30 days after completing what is the largest IPO in history, SpaceX’s overall market expectations flipped outright. The hype that earlier attracted capital is clearly fading. The stock’s intraday high from the earlier period was set at $225; within a short time it has fallen nearly 40%. This week, the market directly broke through the $135 IPO offering price. On Friday it dropped again by more than 5%, closing at $123.99—its lowest level since listing. All positions opened at the high end are now showing large unrealized losses. Risk repricing isn’t only reflected in the stock tape. Corporate bonds and credit default swaps are weakening in tandem; the entire asset chain is pricing in potential downside risks.