$XAU
On Friday, US non-farm payrolls came in hot (August added 162k, far above expectations). The market has pushed up the probability of a Fed rate hike on September 15–16. Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthened, so non-yielding assets like gold have been pressured lower. This week also brings PPI and CPI, so short-term sentiment will revolve around rate-expectation moves.
Near-term support to watch: today’s low at 4389. If it doesn’t hold, the next stop is roughly in the 4370–4360 area. Right now price is hovering around the intraday low, which signals a weak rebound.
Personal plan: go short.
Entry: scale in short on the rebound in the 4408–4418 range.
Stop loss: 4448.
Take profit: first target 4370—reduce half there. The remaining position can look toward around 4220.
There’s a lot of data this week, so don’t run your short position too heavily. If CPI expectations change, and price rises back above 4438 and holds there, then this short call is wrong—exit the trade.
On Friday, US non-farm payrolls came in hot (August added 162k, far above expectations). The market has pushed up the probability of a Fed rate hike on September 15–16. Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthened, so non-yielding assets like gold have been pressured lower. This week also brings PPI and CPI, so short-term sentiment will revolve around rate-expectation moves.
Near-term support to watch: today’s low at 4389. If it doesn’t hold, the next stop is roughly in the 4370–4360 area. Right now price is hovering around the intraday low, which signals a weak rebound.
Personal plan: go short.
Entry: scale in short on the rebound in the 4408–4418 range.
Stop loss: 4448.
Take profit: first target 4370—reduce half there. The remaining position can look toward around 4220.
There’s a lot of data this week, so don’t run your short position too heavily. If CPI expectations change, and price rises back above 4438 and holds there, then this short call is wrong—exit the trade.