📍 Price: ~$79.5k–79.8k 📉 24h: -1.3%, pullback from $82.2k after the release of Nonfarm Payrolls ⚔️ Trigger: NFP +162K (forecast 56K) — the market is pricing in Fed tightening
📊 WHAT MATTERS • NFP: 162k new jobs — nearly 3x above forecast[reference:0] • September rate hike probability: 49% → 58% (Citi moved its expected rate cut to 2027)[reference:1] • BTC-ETF: September 4 +$174.6M — 3rd day in a row[reference:2] • BlackRock IBIT: +$117.4M | Fidelity: +$57.2M[reference:3] • Over the month BTC is up 27%, the fear and greed index is 78 (“greed”)[reference:4]
💬 SENTIMENT The market corrected after strong employment data came out. ETF inflows remain positive for a 3rd straight day, but $80k is the first recovery zone[reference:5]. The next key trigger is CPI (September 11)[reference:6].
⚠️ RISKS • CLARITY Act — procedural vote on September 15, chances <20%[reference:7] • FOMC September 16 — probability of a rate hike ~58%[reference:8] • $82k–$83k — zone of large liquidations[reference:9] • September is historically a weak month for BTC[reference:10]
⚠️ Not financial advice. Crypto markets are high risk.
📍 Price: ~$81.2k–82.1k 📈 Daily: +5.3%, back above $80k after falling to $76.9k ⚔️ Trigger: reduced expectations for the Fed rate cut from 66% to ~50–62%[reference:0][reference:1]
📊 WHAT’S IMPORTANT • BTC-ETF: September 3 — record inflow of $730.9M (3rd highest in 2026)[reference:2] • BlackRock IBIT: +$454M — 62% of all inflows[reference:3] • ARK ARKB: +$137.7M | Fidelity FBTC: +$74M[reference:4] • Over 30 days ETFs attracted >$3B, BTC rose by 22%[reference:5]
💬 SENTIMENT The market reversed on expectations of a softer Fed. ETF inflows are breaking records, but $82k is key resistance[reference:7]. CLARITY Act on September 15 — odds of approval <20%[reference:8].
⚠️ RISKS • CLARITY Act — vote on September 15, outcome unclear[reference:9] • FOMC on September 16 — probability of a hike ~50–62%[reference:10] • $82k — historical resistance[reference:11] • September is historically a weak month for BTC[reference:12]
⚠️ Not financial advice. The crypto market is high risk.
📍 Price: ~$77.3k–77.8k 📉 Daily: -0.14%, consolidation after bouncing off $76.5k ⚔️ Trigger: US–Iran escalation — in 15 minutes, BTC fell from $77,653 to $77,103
📊 WHAT MATTERS • BTC ETF: September 2 +$101.1M — reversal after outflows of $236M earlier that day • BlackRock IBIT: +$115.4M — leader in the recovery • Grayscale BTC: +$30.4M | GBTC: -$56.2M • Bitwise BITB: +$4.2M | MSBT: +$7.3M
💬 SENTIMENT The market is stuck between cooling labor-market data (38k new jobs) and high oil prices ($95.6/bbl). The Fear & Greed Index is 65. BTC is weaker than stocks, but ETF inflows offer hope.
⚠️ RISKS • US–Iran escalation — the main driver of volatility$BTC • CLARITY Act — vote on September 15, outcome unclear • FOMC September 16 — probability of a rate hike ~66% • $78k–79k — resistance zone for a recovery
⚠️ Not financial advice. The crypto market is high-risk.
📊 WHAT’S IMPORTANT • BTC ETF: September 1 — net outflow of $236 million[reference:2] • BlackRock IBIT: outflow of $201 million[reference:3] • BITB (Bitwise): +$8.38 million — the only major inflow[reference:4] • Strategy: last week bought 4,603 BTC at $80,318[reference:5] • Total Strategy holdings: 845,050 BTC, average price $75,413[reference:6]
💬 SENTIMENT September started with a geopolitical shock — the Middle East is weighing on risk. ETFs reversed into outflows, but Strategy continues to accumulate. The market is consolidating around $77k.
⚠️ RISKS • US–Iran escalation — the main driver of volatility • CLARITY Act — vote on September 15; outcome is unclear[reference:9] • FOMC September 16 — rate hike probability ~66%[reference:10] • $80k — psychological resistance
⚠️ Not financial advice. The crypto market is high risk.
📍 Price: ~$78.4k–79.2k 📈 August: +24% — the strongest month since November 2024 🏛 Key dates: Employment report (04.09), CPI (11.09), CLARITY Act (15.09), FOMC (16.09)
📊 WHAT MATTERS • BTC ETF: September 1 +$216.7M — demand returns after outflows • BlackRock IBIT — $205.9M (~95% of all inflows) • Strategy: +4,603 BTC for $370M — first purchase in 2 months • US 10Y yield — 4.78%, the market prices in a 64% probability of a rate hike on September 16
₿ BITCOIN — August 28, 2026 (Jackson Hole Day 2 — Pre-Speech edition)
📍 Price: ~$77,800–$80,200 (Coinbase / BitPinas / Yahoo) 🚀 24h: +1.6% (BitPinas) 📈 Week: +24% (Coinbase), month: +28% 🎙 10:00 ET — WARSH’s SPEECH in Jackson Hole
JACKSON HOLE 2026: MARKET DAY 📅 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — first keynote 🎯 Topic: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” 🔮 Expectation: dovish (Goldman — Meriple) ⚠️ The bond market is already nervous (Reuters)
4 SCENARIOS AFTER 10:00 ET 🟢 Dovish: $82,000–$85,000 🟡 Neutral: $78,000–$80,000 🟠 Hawkish-surprise: $75,000–$76,000 🔴 Panic: $72,000–$73,000
📊 HISTORICAL BACE-TEST POWELL: • 2025: BTC −1.3% after the speech • 2022: BTC −6% for the session
📊 DERIVATIVES — POSITIONING ⚖️ Funding 4h = 0.0031% (annualized ~6.71%) 📊 Open Interest BTC ≈ $51.4B (+7.3% over the month) 🔥 Liquidations 24h: $46.9M — a quiet session 💡 Mode: “WAITING”, not betting
📊 ETF NEWS 🏦 Aug 26: +$232M; IBIT +$200.8M 🏦 Aug 27: +$265.7M; IBIT +$209M; 8th day in a row 📈 Cumulative August: ~$2.02B 🏆 IBIT ≈ $54B AUM
💬 EXPERTS (PREVIEW) 🔹 Goldman (Meriple): “Warsh = say less, lean dovish, but framework-oriented.” 🔹 CNBC survey: “Economists are asking for clarity in the economy.” 🔹 Intellectia: “Dovish = new S&P highs, BTC above $82K.” 🔹 TradingView: “BTC doesn’t need the Fed to mention crypto.” 🔹 BlockChair: “BTC at $80K and gaining 28% — Jackson Hole = the main test.”
📍 Price: ~$77 985–$78 833 (Coinbase / Bybit / bitFlyer / CoinDesk) 🚀 24h: −0,4…+0,3% — calm session 📈 Week: +22% (Coinbase), month: +28% 🎯 Main event: JACKSON HOLE kicked off DAY 1, Warsh — tomorrow
🐋 WHALES TURNED ON • Wallets >1 000 BTC accumulated ~53 000 BTC over 7 days (Investing.com) • Addresses with 10 000+ BTC: +46 420 coins over 60 days (BeInCrypto) • Exchange reserves are falling → supply is getting tighter
🔄 ALTSEASON? NO 📊 BTC.D = 58,8% — the 17th day above 58% 📈 Altcoin Season Index = 37/100 — the 50 threshold wasn’t breached 🪙 BTC = $1,39T out of $2,46T total crypto market ⚠️ Altseason requires a sustained break of BTC.D below 50%
💬 EXPERTS 🔹 CoinDesk: “BTC holds $77K after +21% for the week due to expectations for Jackson Hole.” 🔹 CoinStats: “flat 24h — the market can’t hold $80K without a macro trigger.” 🔹 Trending Topics: “Non-state stores of value are rising ahead of Jackson Hole.” 🔹 Bitfinex Alpha: “Jackson Hole could turn trappedhold into a new push.” 🔹 Coinmarketcap: “BTC dominance in the 58–60% zone — altseason is not confirmed.”
📊 ETF 🏦 Aug 26: net flow −$92.2M (Farside) — first red after a series of inflows 🏛 IBIT +$38.9M, Fidelity −$131.1M 📈 August: still >+$2.07B in inflows → 2026 high ⚠️ IBIT + Fidelity = 80% of all flow $BTC
₿ BITCOIN — August 26, 2026 (Macro & Jackson Hole edition)
📍 Price: ~$77,985–$79,060 (Coinbase / Yahoo / bitFlyer) 🚀 24h: +0.4…+1.6% 📈 Week: +22% (Coinbase), month: +28% 🎯 Main focus: Jackson Hole kicks off TOMORROW
⚠️ MACRO WINDOW OPENS 📡 Jackson Hole: Aug 27–29 🎙 Speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Aug 28, 10:00 ET 📋 Topic: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” 🛑 FOMC — the most hawkish dissent in 10 years
💬 EXPERTS 🔹 Mikybull Crypto: “Dovish Warsh → rate-cut expectations → BTC above $80K. Hawkish → pullback to $73–75K.” 🔹 TechTimes: “The key macro event of the week; hawkish dissent is nearly record.” 🔹 TradingView/NewsBTC: “BTC on the brink of the biggest macro test of 2026.” 🔹 CNBC: “Kalshi traders are betting on $75K by end-2026 — the market doesn’t believe in $100K.” 🔹 Intellectia: “BTC is consolidating around $78K in a waiting mode.”
💲 MACRO NUMBERS 🏛 30-year Treasury yield = 5.17% (TradingEconomics) 📉 From the peak of 5.42% (spring 2026), yields fell by 0.25 percentage points. 💡 Yield pullback = BTC momentum, rising yields = pressure on risk assets
⚖️ CLARITY — BACKWARD COUNTDOWN 🎯 Senate cloture vote: September 15, 2026 📜 John Thune filed cloture on H.R.3633 🛑 Threshold: 60 votes; Republicans = 53 ⚠️ AML disagreements — the main brake 🎲 Polymarket: chances of passage in 2026 — 21–38%
₿ BITCOIN — August 25, 2026 (On-chain & Derivatives edition)
📍 Price: ~$77,100–$78,900 (Coinbase / Bybit / Yahoo) 🚀 24h: +0.1…+1.6% 📈 Week: +22% (Coinbase) — outperformed ETH and SOL 🎯 Within the month: +28% in August
THE MARKET ESSENCE: NOT A RALLY, BUT A STRUCTURE • BTC dominance = 58.8% — Bitcoin is pulling the market alone • Open Interest = $51.4B (+7.3% over the month) • Funding Rate 8h = 0.0093% — NOT overheated • Liquidations 24h = $46.9M — calm session • Active addresses — peak 980,000 on volatile days
💬 EXPERTS 🔹 FOREX.com: “Money is being shifted from gold into BTC as a macro hedge against the dollar.” 🔹 TV-Hub: “BTC = $1.39T out of $2.46T of the entire crypto market, dominium 58.8.” 🔹 CoinStats: “Funding is neutral; the market isn’t overgrown.” 🔹 K33 Research: “Seven-day active supply = ~890,000 BTC in motion.” 🔹 TheStreet: “IBIT + $479M out of $626M = 76% of all inflows.”
🏛 ETF STRUCTURE 🏆 BlackRock +$479M / $626M = 76.5% of the flow 🏛 Fidelity ~80% on a typical day 📊 August +$2.07B — 2026 high ⚠️ Risk concentration: 2 funds out of 12
⚠️ RISKS • +22% for the week, RSI is overbought • Altcoin dominance 41% — without sector support • OI is growing faster than price — a surge up or a pullback • Jackson Hole Aug 27–29 — Fed Chair Warsh • CLARITY Act still hasn’t been passed (scheduled for 15.09) $BTC
📍 Price: ~$77,400–$77,900 (Coinbase / Kraken / Robinhood) 📈 Week: +22% (Coinbase) — the biggest weekly rise in the quarter 🚀 24h: +0.6% — a pause after tests of $80,000 % Month: +28% in August 🎯 Key event: The U.S. Senate scheduled a vote on the CLARITY Act for September 15
WHAT’S HAPPENING • BTC is consolidating near $77,500 after breaking to $80,000 on Friday • The weekly candle closed at $77,727 — up 22% from the prior week • The market is in a wait-and-see mode for two catalysts: Jackson Hole Aug 27–29 and the CLARITY Act on Sept 15
💬 EXPERTS 🔹 John Thune (Senate Majority Leader): “Cloture on the CLARITY Act has been filed, voting on Sept 15.” 🔹 Investors.com: “Cathie Wood / ARK bought about $10 million of Coinbase and Circle.” 🔹 Coinbase Weekly: “BTC up 22% this week, 23% off last Monday's $62,976.” 🔹 KuCoin Research: “Jackson Hole Aug 27–29 with Fed chair Warsh — theme: financial innovation.” 🔹 Phemex: “Close above $75K → cycle targets $82K–$83K.”
📊 ETF NEWS 🏦 Aug 21: +$608.3M for the day — the biggest one-day session of 2026 🏦 Aug 22: +$30.2M (Farside) 🏦 Aug 23: ~+$253M 📈 August overall: +$2.07B — 2026 high 📉 For comparison: May–June = −$1.55B in outflows
📍 Price: ~$77,000–$77,700 (Bybit / bitFlyer / Robinhood / Yahoo) 🚀 24h: +7…+8% — rally for the second day 💰 Daily range: $76,600 – $78,750 🎯 Overnight BTC broke $80,000 for the first time since the start of the cycle 🔥 $3B in shorts liquidated on the way to $71K (20.08)
WHAT’S HAPPENING • BTC holds $76,500–$78,000 after the breakout to $80,000 and the pullback • Intraday high $78,754 (Bybit); pullback within normal correction after +20% for the week • Polymarket: outcome ">72K" for 23 August is already trading at 97%
💬 EXPERTS 🔹 Phemex: “A confident close above $75K → target $82K–$83K.” 🔹 CNBC: “BTC $77,000, +20% for the week on a pullback in Treasury yields.” 🔹 Kalshi traders: bet on $75K by end of 2026 — don’t believe in $100K. 🔹 Investtech: “Resistance at $74K is broken; next are $78K / $80K / $85K.” 🔹 Bar Chart: “RSI at the most overbought level since November 2024.”
📊 ETF NEWS 🏦 Aug 21: BTC-ETF +$239.3M (Farside) 🏦 Aug 22: total inflow into BTC+ETH Spot ETFs ~ $800M (CoinDesk) 📈 Institutions returned after 6 weeks of outflows
🏛 THE MAIN DRIVER — POLITICS 🎯 Trump publicly urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act (Forbes) ⚖️ H.R.3633 — one Senate vote needed before the president signs it 🏛 SEC + CFTC: new rules + 24/7 trading $BTC
WHAT’S HAPPENING • BTC broke above the $75,000 levels and stayed there — a bullish signal • Overnight, BTC tested $80,000 for the first time since the start of the cycle • Weekly growth +22% — largest since the beginning of summer • Intraday range: $75,585 – $79,500 • Cycle target still: $82,000–$83,000
💬 EXPERTS 🔹 CNBC: “The rocket launched on Wednesday on the pullback in Treasury yields; BTC = $77,000, weekly growth >20%”. 🔹 CoinStats AI: “The rally is supported by updated demand on CEX; +24.25% over the week”. 🔹 Phemex: “A confident close above $75,000 confirms the breakout; target — $82,000–$83,000”. 🔹 VanEck ChainCheck: “Long-term holders sold 356K BTC — a distribution phase”. 🔹 Stocktwits: “The $83,000 target level on compressed volatility remains intact”.
🏛 MAIN DRIVING FORCE — POLITICS 🎯 Trump urged Congress to urgently pass the CLARITY Act (20.08, CNBC) ⚖️ H.R.3633 passed the House + the Senate Committee — one vote remains before the president signs it Not financial advice$BTC
📍 Price: ~$72,500–$74,700 (according to CoinDesk / Coinbase / OKX) 🚀 24h: +4.40% (OKX) / +5.4% (BitPinas) 💰 Volume: $54.2B — the market is back in motion 📈 Since the start of the month: +11% 🎯 Daily target: test $75,000 — a barrier before the ATH
WHAT’S HAPPENING • BTC broke above $70,000 and continues its rally • It has come within touching distance of $75,000 — the psychological level before the all-time high • The market has finally come to life thanks to BTC — pulling ETH, HYPE, and NEAR along with it • The main catalyst is Trump’s statement about the urgent adoption of the CLARITY Act
💬 EXPERTS 🔹 Phemex Research: “A confident close above $75,000 is a harbinger of a new ATH.” 🔹 U.Today: “BTC became the locomotive of the crypto market on August 21.” 🔹 Coinpedia: “A breakout above $82K could take BTC to $120K–$150K.” 🔹 CoinStats AI: “The next target is $75,000; the intraday high is currently $69,825, followed by $74,400 being reached.” 🔹 Bitcoin Foundation: “Trump’s statement on the CLARITY Act changed the market picture instantly.”
🏛 THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE — POLITICS 🎯 Trump urged Congress to urgently pass the CLARITY Act (20.08) ⚖️ H.R.3633 in the Senate as of 01.06.2026 🎲 Polymarket: probability of passage in 2026 — 21–38% 🏛 The White House is holding a summit with crypto leaders.$BTC
📍 Price: ~$69,185 🚀 24h: +7.65% — breakout from consolidation! 📊 Daily range: $68,932 — $69,786 💰 Volume: $18.7B (aggregated) 📈 Recovery: +20% from the yearly low
WHAT’S HAPPENING • BTC broke above the upper boundary of the range and moved above $69,000 • This is the strongest daily growth in the past few weeks • The 4-year cycle model points to a target of $76,000 this year
💬 EXPERTS 🔹 Phemex Research: “If BTC holds above $66,500 — a push toward $70,000 is likely; $72,000–$75,000 next.” 🔹 CoinStats AI: BTC holds $64,722 after rebounding from $62,679; resistance at $65,000–$65,500. 🔹 Bitwise (CoinDesk): “$1M predictions are for the long term. In the short term, the market is range-bound.” 🔹 BRN (CoinDesk): “Demand is back, but anemic — not like in bullish cycles.”
📊 ETF NEWS 🏦 Aug 18: net inflow +$297.56M (SoSoValue) 📈 12 funds with no outflows — institutions are back
⚠️ RISKS • CLARITY Act: the vote was moved from August to September • Polymarket: chances of the law being adopted in 2026 fell from 80% to 38% • The $70,000 level is psychological — profit-taking is often done there
📍 Price: ~$64 300 ☄️ 24h: sideways after a pullback from $65K 📉 Week: −3% 💰 Market cap: $1.28T 📊 Volume (24h): $16.71B
WHAT’S HAPPENING • BTC is holding above support at $62,500, but can’t break through $65,000. • ETF flows are weak: Aug 11 +$51.3M, Aug 12 −$14.6M, Aug 13 −$5.7M. • The market is waiting for a vote on the CLARITY Act after the US Congress recess.
💬 EXPERTS: 🔹 BRN (CoinDesk): “Demand is back, but it’s anemic—not as strong as in bullish cycles.” 🔹 Citi (Reuters, July 2026): lowered the 12-month forecast from $112,000 to $82,000. 🔹 Phemex Research: “Support at $62,500 and $60,000. Only a break of $66,500 will confirm an upside reversal.” 🔹 Investtech: “In the medium term, BTC is in a downward channel. Range: $63,000–$66,000.”
⚠️ RISKS • Weak ETF inflows after 8 straight weeks of outflows • Delays in regulation (CLARITY Act) • Strong correlation with Nasdaq and the AI sector • 2026 forecasts range from $38K to $250K