交易员徐闻

This week (9.21-9.25) trading ideas delivered a perfect finish. The overall directional accuracy rate was 100%. Profits were captured on 4 out of 5 trading days. “Big Pie” cumulatively captured nearly 9,000 points of upside potential; “Auntie” kept pace as well—everything key logic was fully realized.
Weekly market backdrop: In the first half of the week, continuous large inflows into U.S. spot ETFs plus a concentrated liquidation of shorts pushed the bulls into repeated offensives, breaking through $87,000 and setting an 8-month high. In the second half, as U.S. Treasury yields surged to a 19-year high and ETF inflow momentum slowed, bull momentum started to fade and high-level pullbacks began. The key bull-bear switch point was something we correctly stepped on.
Monday (9.21) low-long idea: Perfectly captured the first wave of the rebound
Market logic: Last week’s pullback found strong support around $80,000. Daily net ETF inflows were nearly $1 billion. Short-sellers were forced out through liquidation, driving a bull counterattack and confirming $80,000 below as a transitional bottom.
Big Pie range: 80822-85332, total rally of 4500+ points
Auntie range: 2645-2746, synchronized advance of 100+ points
Tuesday (9.22) low-long idea: Ride the trend and fully eat the tail-end space
Market logic: The uptrend wasn’t broken. With the inertia of funds pushing prices to break above $86,000, we followed the move with a low-long.
Big Pie range: 85070-86342, total advance of 1200+ points
Auntie range: 2714-2755, synchronized advance of 40+ points
Wednesday (9.23) high-short idea: Perfectly escaped the top and flipped to short
Market logic: After Big Pie touched the 87,374 high, bull momentum clearly weakened. Treasury yields jumped and suppressed risk assets—so we decisively switched to the high-short idea.
Big Pie range: 85937-84216, total decline of 1700+ points
Auntie range: 2738-2653, synchronized decline of 80+ points
Thursday (9.24) high-short idea: Pullback continuation
Market logic: ETF inflows fell for 3 consecutive days, down 81%. Bulls lacked the strength to break through the $85,000 miner-cost pressure level, and sell pressure kept releasing at higher levels.
Big Pie entry range: 84931-83333, total decline of 1500+ points
Auntie range: 2698-2643, total decline of 50+ points
Friday (9.25) high-short idea: The direction was right—unfortunately shaken out
Market logic: The structure of the pullback from high levels didn’t change. This should have been a continuation day for high-short positions, but we underestimated the strength of the rally as traders positioned ahead of the weekend. The stop-loss level provided in the strategy was too tight, so we were swept out by a short-term fake breakout—really regrettable.
$BTC $ETH #Circle在Solana增发5亿枚USDC

Real-time strategy updates without interruption, entry points and stop-loss levels are provided to everyone in sync! Keep up with the Xu Wen team’s pace and finally say goodbye to chaotic blind trading. Lay out the market steadily, and discuss the market’s ups and downs in real time. The chatroom is now open—come join the conversation and mine for gains! $BTC $ETH #比特币

Today's midday reminder $XAU — Trading plan:
If a rebound to around 4070–4085 stalls (e.g., with a long upper shadow), open a small short position and place the stop-loss above 4100. Target 4048; if that level breaks, look to 4020.
The market met resistance around 4073, then fell to 4013, a drop of 60+ points.
$XAU #CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压

Our trading outlook played out over two consecutive days, Monday and Tuesday. We profited from both long and short positions across multiple markets!
BTC: 1,100+ from shorts on Monday; 1,500+ from shorts on Tuesday
ETH: 35+ from shorts on Monday; 100+ from shorts on Tuesday
SNDK short: 34 points
ZEC long: 45+
XAU: 40+ from longs first, then 50+ from shorts—both targets hit

The market held no surprises; the results were exactly as predicted.
$BTC $ETH #比特币ETF11月净流出16亿美元

Midday reminder $SNDK : Buy-the-dip strategy:
Entry range: 880 - 890 (overlaps with the 1-hour MA10 support and the green support zone on the liquidation map, a strong short-term support level)
Stop-loss: below 874 (exit if the price breaks below the MA20 and short-term bullish trend)
First target: 925 (major short liquidation zone, likely to trigger a short squeeze and drive prices higher)
Maximum target: 940 (secondary liquidation zone above)
The market continued its uptrend around 897 and met resistance around 944. Cumulative rise: 45+
$SNDK #英伟达Q3财报将至：能否化解市场疑虑？

11.11 Wednesday Xuwen$ZEC Strategy
Combining the liquidation heatmap with market liquidity, ZEC is currently at an extreme point of contention between the “final stage of long-leverage unwinding” and “overcrowded short positions.” Long liquidations have reached as high as 88% over the past 24 hours, with a huge number of shorts (around 2.2 billion) piling in. The price is also nearing the key 1,000 level and the previous low support at 965.57. In the short term, it is deeply oversold, with potential for a technical rebound and a short-squeeze surge. However, spot selling pressure from Grayscale redemptions remains a headwind, and the broader trend is still downward. This trade is therefore classified as a countertrend rebound play: take a quick profit and get out.
Trading plan:
Range: Go long at 965–985, stop-loss at 958, target 1020; if the level breaks, look to 1050.
$ZEC #Anthropic拒绝延期IPO，本周路演估值几何？

11.11 Wed Xu Wen $SNDK outlook
Liquidation landscape: There is an extremely dense short liquidation zone above, between 920 and 925, with a strong magnetic pull. If triggered, it could easily spark a short squeeze and a sharp rally. However, the current price of 898 is too close to resistance, making a direct long entry very unfavorable in terms of risk-reward.
News: A strong overnight rally in U.S. semiconductor stocks (the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.85%) provides support from capital inflows. However, watch out for short-term profit-taking pressure around the 8-for-1 stock split on November 19, as well as potential downside from NAND price growth slowing.
Trading plan:
Entry range: 880–890 (overlaps with the 1-hour MA10 support and the green support zone on the liquidation map; a strong short-term support area)
Stop loss: Below 874 (a break below the MA20 and the short-term bullish trend; exit and admit the trade is wrong)
First target: 925 (the core short liquidation zone, likely to trigger a major short squeeze and rally)
Maximum target: 940 (the next-highest liquidation zone above)
$SNDK #英伟达Q3财报将至：能否化解市场疑虑？

11.11 Wednesday Xuwen $XAU Market Outlook
I. Macro and Fund Flows (Bull-Bear Tug-of-War)
· Bearish: U.S. CPI came in hotter than expected, pushing the probability of a December rate hike close to 99%. The macro backdrop continues to cap gold’s upside.
· Bullish: Global central bank buying is providing support, with structural buying interest below the 4,000 level.
II. Key Levels (Chart Signals)
· Strong resistance at 4110: The liquidation map shows a dense short-liquidation band above 4110, which is also the platform from which the previous decline began.
· Key threshold at 4048: A long-liquidation magnet zone lies below. A break below this level could easily trigger a short-term spike.
· Intraday range: 4013–4072. The 1H and 15M moving averages are converging, forming a typical choppy consolidation pattern.
Trading plan:
If a rebound to around 4070–4085 shows signs of stalling (such as a long upper wick), consider a small short position, with a stop above 4100. Target 4048; if that level breaks, look to 4020.
$XAU #CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压

11.11 Wed. Xu Wen BTC/ETH Strategy
CPI came in above expectations, while ETF funds continued to flow out, causing a severe drain on macro liquidity. According to the liquidation heatmap, dense liquidation zones lie above in the 74,500–75,500 range for BTC and the 2,100–2,140 range for ETH, forming a natural resistance ceiling. Conditions for a reversal are not in place; any rebound is an opportunity to enter short positions.
BTC: Short under resistance in the 74,300–74,800 range. Stop-loss: 75,200. Target: 72,700 (if it breaks down, watch 72,000).
ETH: Short under resistance in the 2,080–2,100 range. Stop-loss: 2,130.
Target: 2,030–2,000 (if it breaks below 2,000, watch 1,950).
$BTC $ETH #CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压

Yesterday’s midday outlook fully played out across the board, with multiple markets delivering gains at the same time!
BTC: Sell into resistance in the 74800–75300 range, with a stop above 76000. First target: 73300; if it breaks, look toward 72000. Secured 900+ before the data, then another 600+ on the continued drop after bearish CPI figures came in, for a total move down of 1500+.
ETH: Short from 2125–2155, with a stop above 2180. First target: the key 2095 level; if it gives way, look toward 2050. Took 50+ before the data, then another 50+ as the bearish momentum continued, for a total gain of 100+.
SNDK: Lightly short near 890–900, exiting if price holds above 910. Initial target: the upper edge of the 855 liquidation zone. Price met resistance at 901 and fell to 867, delivering the expected 34-point drop.
XAU: Sell into resistance at 4140–4155, with a stop at 4165. First target: 4100; second target: 4085. Price slid all the way to 4077, hitting both targets.
No gambling on data releases, no after-the-fact excuses. Every entry level was shared openly, and every market move played out as expected.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压

At midday, successfully predicted today's shorting strategy
BTC: Resistance in the 74800–75300 range; open a short position.
Stop-loss: Above 76000
Targets: First target 73300; if it breaks, look toward around 72000.
Before the market data, captured 900+; after the bearish data, price dropped another 600+, for a cumulative decline of 1500+.
ETH: 2125–2155
Stop-loss: Above 2180
Targets: First target 2095 (critical level); if it fails to hold, look toward the previous low at 2050 or even lower.
ETH also gained 50+ before the data, then continued downward another 50+ after the bearish data, for a cumulative gain of 100+.

The market sets an exam paper every day. The only difference is whether you're the one answering the questions or the one being tested by them.
$BTC $ETH #CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压

Midday Reminder $SNDK Trading Plan and Execution:
· Entry: Look to lightly short on rallies near 890–900.
· Target: First target is 855 (the upper edge of the liquidation zone).
· Stop-loss: If price holds above 910, exit and stay on the sidelines.
After facing resistance at 901, the market fell to 867, a decline of 34 points.
The market waits for no one; it only rewards those who position themselves in advance.
$SNDK
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验

How to hold the final line before CPI drops

Two scenarios for tonight’s CPI report—here’s what to expect:
Bullish scenario (CPI ≤ 0.2%)
The foundation firms up, potential selling pressure eases, and a short-term rebound is in sight—BTC first targets 78,000, and ETH looks to move above 2,200.
If tonight’s report is truly bullish, tomorrow’s selling pressure around the MicroStrategy stock review could be pushed back, giving the bulls a chance to catch their breath.
Bearish scenario (CPI ≥ 0.3%)
Go short immediately—don’t hesitate. There’s no floor below.
If bearish news hits early, combined with tomorrow’s selling pressure around the MicroStrategy review, the bulls could face another brutal washout over the next couple of days.
What should you do if you went long around 2,090?
You’re basically at breakeven now. Three options—pick the one that fits:
1️⃣ Safest: Take short-term profits and exit. Don’t gamble on CPI; secure your gains.
2️⃣ If you’re willing to hold: Set a stop-loss as a backstop and wait for the report. If you’re right, you can ride the rebound.
3️⃣ If you’re hedging: Open a short around 2,103 to lock in a hedge. Keep the stop-loss on your long unchanged, and set the short’s stop-loss at 2,115. That way, neither side gets liquidated—wait for the data, then unwind the hedge.

Tonight is the decisive night. If your position is large, trim it first; if it’s small, choose one of the three plans above. Don’t add to your position or bet on a direction before CPI comes out. Wait for the report, then act.
$BTC $ETH #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验

Midday reminder $XAU entry range: 4140 - 4155, look to short into resistance
Stop loss: 4165
First target: 4100
Second target: 4085
The market is trending weakly, falling steadily from around 4135 to 4077, down 50+ points in total and hitting both of today’s targets!
$XAU #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验

Midday trading ideas for BTC and ETH
BTC: Short into resistance in the 74800–75300 range. Stop-loss: above 76000
Targets: First target: 73300; if it breaks, watch for around 72000.
BTC met resistance at 74966 and fell to 74079, a total drop of 900+.
ETH: 2125–2155
Stop-loss: above 2180
Targets: First target: 2095 (critical level); if it fails to hold, look lower toward the previous low of 2050 or below.
ETH likewise met resistance at 2131 and fell to 2083, a total drop of nearly 50 points.
There are always opportunities in a trend; what’s lacking is people who understand its rhythm.
$BTC $ETH #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验

Trader Xu Wen | Yesterday’s strategy played out
Yesterday, I shared trading ideas for BTC, ETH, ZEC, and XAU. They all played out as expected, with the market confirming the logic.
✅ BTC: Short at 74700–75200 resistance, with a stop-loss above 76100. Targets: 73700, then 73300 if support breaks. Price peaked at 75549, met resistance, and turned lower, dropping to 74391—a maximum move of over 1100. The high-level short strategy played out.
✅ ETH: Short at 2130–2150 resistance, with a stop-loss at 2170. Targets: 2090, then 2080 if support breaks. Price met resistance near 2150 and moved lower, reaching a low of 2115—a pullback of over 35. It weakened alongside BTC, and the short position delivered a profit.
✅ ZEC: Look to buy on a pullback at 1200–1210, with a stop-loss at 1178 and a target of a rebound. Price pulled back to 1185, found support, and then climbed to 1233—an increase of over 45. The buy-the-dip setup captured the rebound.
✅ XAU Gold: Wait for a pullback to 4070–4100 and enter long once support holds, with a stop-loss below 4050 and a target of 4180. Price pulled back to 4092, held support, and rallied to 4136—an increase of over 40. The pullback-buy strategy played out.

It takes courage to enter, logic to hold, and discipline to exit.
Set a stop-loss in advance for every trade—not to be passively stopped out, but to give yourself the confidence to hold the position and capture profits in the right direction. The market won’t always move in our favor, but sound risk management and waiting for clear signals can make all the difference to your win rate.
Tonight, keep a close eye on the US October CPI data. Inflation figures will directly affect expectations for Fed rate cuts, and BTC and gold are highly correlated. For now, continue to wait patiently for clear signals within the defined range—don’t chase rallies or sell into drops.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #加密市场24小时清算达11.6亿美元

11.10 Tuesday Xuwen$SNDK Strategy
Highest-probability strategy: Sell rallies; do not chase longs!
Core rationale:
1. Liquidation-map gravity: Huge long liquidations are stacked below at 813–855 (a danger zone), while the short liquidation wall above is very thin. It costs the main players less to push prices down and liquidate longs.
2. Divergence in fund flows: Short-term inflows are an illusion; big money is using the rebound to exit. Long liquidations far exceed short liquidations, giving short whales the advantage.
3. Technical resistance: Resistance is concentrated in the 890–910 zone, while macro conditions are draining liquidity.
Execution:
· Entry: Lightly probe short positions on rallies around 890–900.
· Target: First target is 855 (the upper edge of the liquidation zone).
· Stop-loss: Exit and wait if the price holds above 910.
· Discipline: A rebound is an opportunity to enter short positions, never a reason to go long. If the price retests 813–820 and stabilizes, only consider a very small, quick rebound trade; get in and out fast.
$SNDK #黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查

11.10 Tue Xu Wen $XAU Strategy
XAU short-term strategy: Sell into rebounds
Core rationale:
Macro-wise, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls have reinforced bets on a December rate hike. Technically, the moving averages on both the 1-hour and 15-minute charts are bearishly aligned, and rebounds lack strength. The liquidation heatmap also shows a large liquidation cluster in the 4150–4160 range, forming a very strong resistance zone. Before tonight’s CPI data is released, it will be extremely difficult for bulls to break through this resistance in one go.
Trade levels:
Entry range: Sell under pressure at 4140–4155
Stop-loss: 4165
First target: 4100
Second target: 4085
$XAU #美伊和谈提振市场，美股强势反弹

11.10 Tue Xuwen$ZEC Strategy
ZEC Trading Plan: Short-term longs to catch a bounce; swing shorts to follow the trend

Core view: Positive news has been fully priced in and major players are exiting; the broader trend is bearish. However, shorts are crowded (negative funding rates + many short liquidations), so avoid blindly chasing shorts in the short term.
Left-side “short-term long” (speculative attempt to catch a short squeeze)
· Rationale: 1126–1140 is a dense liquidation support zone; crowded shorts could trigger a squeeze.
· Entry: 1126–1140 (wait for a high-volume reversal signal on the 15-minute chart).
· Stop-loss: 1115.
· Target: 1160–1170 (take the bounce and exit).
Right-side “swing short” (follow the trend to capture profits)
· Rationale: Major-player funds continue to flow out, and the moving averages are bearishly aligned. Around 1173, many whale longs are under pressure to exit at breakeven.
· Entry: 1160–1175 (enter after the rebound stalls or a bearish candle confirms).
· Stop-loss: 1185.
· Target: 1130–1120 (if support breaks, look for lower levels).
Trading rules:
1. Don’t chase shorts: With negative funding rates, chasing shorts at market can leave you trapped.
2. Don’t catch a falling knife: For short-term longs, wait for a clear reversal signal in the support zone.
3. Stay on the sidelines in the middle: 1145–1160 is a “no-man’s land.” Keep your hands off and wait for price to reach either boundary before acting.
4. Always use a strict stop-loss: Never let a losing position run!
$ZEC #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验