奉旨发财-中华

Market Analysis

Regarding Bitcoin reserves on exchanges, since October 9, exchange-held Bitcoin has generally rebounded. The share of large transfers into exchanges has also risen noticeably recently, making rallies more likely to encounter selling pressure.

As for Bitcoin ETFs, overall flows were still positive last week, but net outflows over the final two days erased roughly 70% of the net inflows from the first three days.
This suggests the buying seen earlier was not sustained, and institutional demand had already weakened before prices fell.

Stablecoin supply has also been declining over the past few days.
Although the contraction has not been particularly large, there is still no clear sign of an expansion in incremental capital.

In this environment, tech stock corrections, concerns about returns on AI investments, and news of escalating tensions in the Middle East over the weekend could all prompt investors to reduce risk further.
Liquidity tends to be thin over the weekend, and after key levels were broken, liquidations of long positions amplified the drop.
So even if liquidations ease for now, genuine buying needs to return for a rebound to be sustainable.

I remain bullish on BTC in the long term, but prefer to invest gradually rather than commit my entire position at once.
In the short term, there is relatively strong support around 79,000. I expect repeated tests and choppy trading for now, but support holding here in the past alone is not enough to confirm a bottom.

Next, we need to watch closely whether the 79,000 area holds. If it fails, attention will turn to support in the 75,000–77,000 range. If it holds, we’ll see whether the price can regain and hold above 81,000.

When Bitcoin drops 2%, altcoins tend to fall around 10%. So while the outlook for Bitcoin remains unclear, I recommend trading altcoins less.#币圈现状

GM 💛

Start with an idea and create endless possibilities

UNI

4.6 → 6.3, profit 38%

I think it can reach around the weekly moving average at 6.76—this is a resistance level.

But I’ll set my take-profit a bit lower, around 6.6. It’s getting close.

This rally is mainly driven by sentiment. Robinhood brought profits to UNI.

The profits are stored in the treasury. Users get rewards from the treasury by burning UNI.

In reality, UNI “burns away” 20 million tokens per year for the team.

Over the past 30 days, because Robinhood has been all the rage, UNI has burned roughly 2.2–2.3 million tokens.

If Robinhood continues to stay hot, annual burn could reach 27 million tokens per year, but that’s unlikely.

So I won’t hold long-term—unless there are some new revenue streams.

Opportunity Follow-up — UNI

UNI reminded everyone to pay attention at 4.6 yesterday, sharing that the maximum profit was up to 20%.

I will continue to hold, for the following reasons:

(1) Robinhood Chain has strong trading volume

Uniswap is RH’s absolute leader DEX right now, with a daily trading volume as high as $770 million.

Even though trading volume isn’t perfectly linked to UNI burn volume, the higher the trading volume, the more trading fees the protocol can typically capture, which ultimately helps drive UNI burns.

(2) UNI’s burn mechanism brings a qualitative change to UNI

Uniswap’s protocol fees go into TokenJar.

Anyone who wants to withdraw assets inside it—ETH, stablecoins, etc.—must burn an equivalent amount of UNI through mechanisms like Firepit.

Higher trading volume → More protocol fees → More assets in TokenJar → More UNI burned

RH is currently the main force; over the past 30 days, it burned about 880,000 UNI, worth roughly $4.48 million.

Next, focus on two key data points:

1. Uniswap’s trading volume on Robinhood Chain

2. UNI’s actual daily and monthly burn amounts

But to add some context, UNI and HYPE still can’t compare—there’s a 20 million UNI annual inflation used for ecosystem expansion.

Also, the number of coins burned is still quite small. You could say it benefits from sentiment rather than a true flywheel. Net buybacks are close to zero, even slightly negative.

Brother Sun is really busy—on one hand he’s dating Jing Tian, and on the other hand he’s dating Gu Ailing; at the same time he’s suing Trump; he’s also having a fierce argument with Zeng Ying; he’s going all-in on storage; he’s building an AI transfer station; he’s heading to space; he’s getting listed on Nasdaq; and he’s buying bananas.

Zhao Changpeng Binance Life Book Club Sharing #赵长鹏再次火上热搜

🆘 What happened on DEX in the past 24 hours? 🆘

🔥 $BTC - Touches $81,000!
🔥 $ZEC - Sets a new all-time high; privacy coins are bullish.
🔥 $PONS, $CashCat, $DELTA, $JUGGERNAUT, $HOOKR, $PCAT - #Robinhood Season 🍏
● $PCAT - Pons’ unofficial mascot.
● $CMNS - A profitable virtual AI build project on Solana / VibeFi project.
● $MANLET - Ansem testing version bounce.
● $DOPAMEME - The first token involving @trading_axe.
--------------------
New all-time highs: $ZEC, $PONS, $CashCat, $DELTA

This month, the hardest part wasn’t how much I lost—it was realizing that many of these mistakes I actually knew about already.

I know I can’t go heavy when liquidity is low.

I know you can’t just buy based on rumors.

I know after a big surge, I should take profits in batches.

I also know I’m very prone to FOMO.

But knowing doesn’t help. Once I’m in the market and emotions kick in, I still end up getting distorted.

The biggest problem this month is that I kept trying to prove to myself that I’m smart.

Chinese Sharing

A few simple thoughts on ASTEROID, from propulsion to now—profitability is close to 30%

(1) First, look at trading volume

From June 20 to now, ASTEROID has been in a rising trend on decreasing volume, which indicates that selling pressure is weakening—only a small amount of buying demand is needed to push prices higher.

From April to now, the largest concentration of traded shares is centered around a market cap of $140 million. This is also an important resistance/pressure level for any subsequent upside.

At present, the biggest resistance is around 40M. A breakout could be seen toward 80M.

(2) In terms of the narrative

ASTEROID’s core narrative is highly related to SpaceX. Every time SpaceX makes a launch, it may reignite market interest in ASTEROID.

The next time point worth watching is in mid-September. For the detailed information, please refer to the chart.

China 🐉 shares

After Robin Hood, the next thing I’m most focused on is Arc.

Arc is a Layer 1 blockchain launched by USDC issuer Circle. It is EVM-compatible and uses USDC to pay gas. It is mainly aimed at stablecoin payments, RWA, and institutional finance.

There are already signs on-chain of capital flowing in, suggesting that some projects may be deploying ahead of time. The Arc mainnet beta is expected to go live soon, and the market widely speculates it could happen within the next month.

Previously, Circle raised $222 million through a private sale of ARC tokens, valuing the project at $3 billion. Institutions including a16z, BlackRock, Apollo, and ICE (the parent company of the NYSE) all participated.

Arc is still in an early stage. Tokens and projects with the same name on the market may not necessarily be related to the official one—be sure to verify the source and the contract.

After the mainnet launches, if there are ecosystem projects and Meme opportunities worth paying attention to, I will also筛选 them and share them with everyone right away.

The first day of losing 3,200
Never test users with money—you’ll lose badly ˘̩̩̩ε˘̩ƪ

China Daily｜July 13

（1）Second-level “lying flat” — don’t fuss too much

Tomorrow there will be CPI data, but this kind of data comes out once a month; it may affect short-term fluctuations, so there’s no need to over-interpret.

We’re still in the DCA (buying in batches) phase at the second level. Keep adding in batches to the projects you’re bullish on—like Big Coin and HYPE—so just keep it simple and don’t over-tinker.

（2）Focus on the first level recently

Recently, quite a few “golden dogs” have emerged in the Robinhood ecosystem.

Earlier, we taught everyone to bridge assets as soon as possible, but we didn’t follow up closely afterward. Many opportunities were spotted, but we didn’t truly get to capture them.

The hype is still there. There are mainly two ways to play:

① Watch the leading “dragon” in the second round
Focus on these two tokens: CASHCAT and JUGGERNAUT.

② Catch new projects
You can pay more attention to bloggers on X who have been playing in the Robinhood ecosystem long-term, or directly check the “golden dog” push from BitCoin Lobster: #罗宾汉 .

That said, new projects require keeping a close watch for a long time. They’re suitable for people who can spend lots of time every day. If you don’t have much time, don’t force it.

Today’s China Watch｜Geopolitical Risk Sudden Intensifies

The situation between the U.S. and Iran escalates again.

On the news front, reports from multiple areas in southern Iran indicate explosions, and the U.S. military says it has begun launching strikes on targets related to Iran.

As a result, oil prices surged rapidly; gold pulled back to around $4,100, and big-bet (spot) also fell along with it.

If the conflict further escalates, oil prices may move higher, and the market may see:

First, inflationary pressure rebounds.
Second, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthen.
Third, valuations of risk assets are suppressed.

Next, focus on two signals:
1️⃣ Whether oil prices can continue climbing
2️⃣ Whether both sides in the U.S.-Iran standoff expand their operational scope

If it’s only a one-off strike, the market may absorb the impact quickly.

If incidents continue in the Strait of Hormuz, oil tanker transportation, or Iranian energy facilities, the market may face a second round of safe-haven pressure.

Dear friends, in the short term, it’s still best to prioritize hedging—don’t force a move.

Now the BSC market is doing great

It has produced super Memes like CZ and TCC—two big markers of several dozen M

Keep a close eye on CZ and He Yi’s X. Just now CZ posted an interview, and two more tickers popped up

One is $5 and one is $FREEDOM—one is CZ’s beginner gesture, and one is CZ’s new tattoo

If you want to play the BSC hot spots, go check out this interview—you might still uncover some details that haven’t been dug up

BitDragonShrimp can also subscribe to get notified of new BSC listings and look for opportunities

$5
0xb1548b6c5e18cc836328bb08ec5875ed0d8d4444

$FREEDOM
0x9c118268a9bf6328b62ebf7d2be035fbc01d4444

Tonight’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls may be a small positive

If employment comes in below expectations, the market will first price in rate-cut expectations, which is good for risk assets

But if the unemployment rate falls, it means employment isn’t collapsing—so this isn’t a “game-changer”

Next, focus on:
📅 Jul 8 — Federal Reserve meeting minutes
📅 Jul 14 — U.S. CPI (inflation)
📅 Jul 15 — U.S. PPI (producer inflation)
📅 Jul 28–29 — Fed rate decision

If inflation continues to ease and the Fed doesn’t turn hawkish, there’s still upside room for BTC

Is this from the official website or AI-generated?

哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈

F*** him

Bitelobster 🦞 is getting more media attention
and will become more mainstream too

By the time the news reaches you,
the opportunity may have already risen by 300%. 🦞🚀

This is why, huh?