Market Analysis
Regarding Bitcoin reserves on exchanges, since October 9, exchange-held Bitcoin has generally rebounded. The share of large transfers into exchanges has also risen noticeably recently, making rallies more likely to encounter selling pressure.
As for Bitcoin ETFs, overall flows were still positive last week, but net outflows over the final two days erased roughly 70% of the net inflows from the first three days.
This suggests the buying seen earlier was not sustained, and institutional demand had already weakened before prices fell.
Stablecoin supply has also been declining over the past few days.
Although the contraction has not been particularly large, there is still no clear sign of an expansion in incremental capital.
In this environment, tech stock corrections, concerns about returns on AI investments, and news of escalating tensions in the Middle East over the weekend could all prompt investors to reduce risk further.
Liquidity tends to be thin over the weekend, and after key levels were broken, liquidations of long positions amplified the drop.
So even if liquidations ease for now, genuine buying needs to return for a rebound to be sustainable.
I remain bullish on BTC in the long term, but prefer to invest gradually rather than commit my entire position at once.
In the short term, there is relatively strong support around 79,000. I expect repeated tests and choppy trading for now, but support holding here in the past alone is not enough to confirm a bottom.
Next, we need to watch closely whether the 79,000 area holds. If it fails, attention will turn to support in the 75,000–77,000 range. If it holds, we’ll see whether the price can regain and hold above 81,000.
When Bitcoin drops 2%, altcoins tend to fall around 10%. So while the outlook for Bitcoin remains unclear, I recommend trading altcoins less.#币圈现状
Regarding Bitcoin reserves on exchanges, since October 9, exchange-held Bitcoin has generally rebounded. The share of large transfers into exchanges has also risen noticeably recently, making rallies more likely to encounter selling pressure.
As for Bitcoin ETFs, overall flows were still positive last week, but net outflows over the final two days erased roughly 70% of the net inflows from the first three days.
This suggests the buying seen earlier was not sustained, and institutional demand had already weakened before prices fell.
Stablecoin supply has also been declining over the past few days.
Although the contraction has not been particularly large, there is still no clear sign of an expansion in incremental capital.
In this environment, tech stock corrections, concerns about returns on AI investments, and news of escalating tensions in the Middle East over the weekend could all prompt investors to reduce risk further.
Liquidity tends to be thin over the weekend, and after key levels were broken, liquidations of long positions amplified the drop.
So even if liquidations ease for now, genuine buying needs to return for a rebound to be sustainable.
I remain bullish on BTC in the long term, but prefer to invest gradually rather than commit my entire position at once.
In the short term, there is relatively strong support around 79,000. I expect repeated tests and choppy trading for now, but support holding here in the past alone is not enough to confirm a bottom.
Next, we need to watch closely whether the 79,000 area holds. If it fails, attention will turn to support in the 75,000–77,000 range. If it holds, we’ll see whether the price can regain and hold above 81,000.
When Bitcoin drops 2%, altcoins tend to fall around 10%. So while the outlook for Bitcoin remains unclear, I recommend trading altcoins less.#币圈现状