看不懂eth

Article

The Whole World Is Plunging, While Bitcoin Lies Flat

I opened my eyes this morning and the market made me laugh.
Gold fell below $4,000, and silver followed suit.
U.S. crude fell below $90, while Brent is hanging on at $92, pretending to be tough.
The U.S. Dollar Index hit a 19-month high, looking absolutely pumped.
10-year Treasury yields topped 5% intraday.
Then I took a look at Bitcoin.
It was up 0.1% in 24 hours.
0.1%.🙄
Assets around the world are either plunging or soaring, while Bitcoin is just lying there between $73,000 and $74,000, flatter than I am.
Even ZEC knows to play along with the mood and drop 8%, but Bitcoin hasn't budged an inch.
People used to call Bitcoin digital gold. These days, I'd say it's more like a digital couch potato—

Article

See translation

31% 的暴跌概率，吓的是谁

期权市场现在给 BTC 圣诞节前跌破 7 万的概率，标到了 31%。
上周还是 15%，一周翻倍。
看跌期权占比从 36% 飙到 55%。
甚至有人花 1.4 万美元，买 300 枚 BTC 月底前跌破 6 万的看跌期权。
有意思的是，恐慌指数才 28。
不是 0，不是 10，是 28。
市场怕，但还没怕透。
我见过太多次这种剧本：
概率从 15 翻到 31 的时候，满屏都是"还要跌"。
等真跌下去，同一批人又变成"早知道抄底"。
他们不是在看市场，是在给自己的情绪找证据。
讲道理，31% 这个数字本身没那么重要。
期权市场定价的是恐慌的价格，不是未来的价格。
恐慌越贵，说明越多人在用真金白银买保险——
而历史上保险卖得最贵的时候，往往不是灾难最大的时候。
我的做法一直没变：
别人给恐慌定价的时候，我只看一件事——
我的仓位，扛不扛得住那个 31% 真的发生。
扛得住，31% 就是噪音。
扛不住，哪怕概率只有 3%，先出局的也是你。
仓位是你的防弹衣，预测不是。
#BTC #ETH

Article

A rebound fueled by short covering—don’t mistake it for a reversal

After last night’s move back up to $74,000, I went through the data. Honestly, this rebound was driven by short covering—not by a return of confidence.
The entire market saw $199 million in liquidations over 24 hours, more than two-thirds of them shorts.
Put simply: prices fell too fast, short sellers got liquidated, and forced buying pushed prices back up.
This isn’t buying pressure—it’s a meat grinder that paused for a moment.
What about the other side?
U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for four straight days, with outflows exceeding $1 billion since the start of the year.
Prices are bouncing, but money is flowing out. Think carefully about what that tells you.

IEFETF-0.11%

Article

Three “safe-haven assets” all fail at once

Last night’s CPI report shattered a lot of people’s worldviews.
October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus expectations of 0.3%; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%. The numbers weren’t outrageous, but they were enough to push the odds of a December rate hike above 85%. Waller even put a 50-basis-point hike back on the table.
Then we saw something very interesting: gold fell nearly 3%, dropping below 4,050; silver fell 3.55%; BTC fell 1%; the dollar index rose to 102.2; and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5%.
Gold, Bitcoin, and silver—the three things commonly called “safe-haven assets”—all fell on the same night. The only thing that rose was the dollar.

Article

All the good news, and crypto prices didn’t get the memo

There’s been almost an embarrassingly large amount of good news for crypto this week.
Coinbase secured a U.S. national trust bank charter, effective Friday, allowing it to offer compliant custody services under federal oversight. Two years ago, that news would’ve been enough to send prices soaring. The Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the midterms, putting expectations of a regulatory shift on the table. Stablecoin legislation, ETF options, looser custody rules—any one of these could’ve filled three articles.
So what happened? BTC fell 1%, ETH fell 2.4%, and even touched 2,000 intraday.
I looked through headlines from a few media outlets and had a laugh. The Nasdaq fell 0.74%, and the headlines said it was “under pressure”; crypto fell 2%, and the headlines said “crash,” “breach,” and “plunge.” Same CPI report, same night, two different vocabularies. Pretty ridiculous.

Article

An institution’s cost basis isn’t your safety net

Let’s start with a number.
Strategy holds 850,364 BTC, with an average purchase price of $75,456. Today, BTC is trading at $73,800.
In other words, the company that can take the biggest hit and shout the loudest on Earth is now sitting on an unrealized loss.
I saw someone in the group chat say that Saylor’s cost basis is the floor. I stared at that sentence for a long time and wondered—why? His cost basis is $75,456, and the price has fallen to $73,800. That shows the market simply doesn’t care what he paid. All he can do is keep buying; last week he added another 1,037 BTC. But I checked how much cash he has on hand: $4.9 billion. That sounds like a lot, but thrown into this market, it wouldn’t even make a splash.

Article

What did the people who lost $200 million to liquidations in 5 minutes get wrong?

In the five minutes after last night’s CPI release, $200 million in leveraged positions were liquidated. $360 million in one hour, and $1.2 billion in 24 hours.
These aren’t just numbers. They’re individual long traders thinking, “I feel like it’s fallen enough.”
To put it bluntly, every time I see liquidation figures, I’m not surprised at all. In a market where BTC has fallen from 126080 to 73000—a 40% drawdown—the most dangerous thing has never been getting the direction wrong. It’s leverage, which leaves you with no chance to be wrong even once.
Think carefully about the math: if the price falls from 84000 to 73000, you’re down 13% on spot. It hurts, but you’re still in the game, and you still have your coins. What about 20x leverage? A 5% move and you’re wiped out. That’s it. There is no “what happens next.”

Article

U.S. Stocks Celebrate as Dow Soars 1,150 Points; Crypto Sees $1.2 Billion in Liquidations: We Weren’t Invited to This Party

Monday’s market action was arguably the most surreal day of the year.
U.S. stocks were popping champagne: the Dow surged 1,150 points, the S&P 500 had its best day since April, and gold climbed back above 4,100. Crypto was hauling out the stretchers: $1.2 billion liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for $1.04 billion. ETH alone saw $500 million liquidated.
Same Earth, two parallel universes. 😤
Interestingly, U.S. stocks are trading on “plunging oil prices and easing inflation,” while crypto is trading on “Democrats taking both chambers and Warren set to chair the Senate Banking Committee.” Put simply, traditional markets are betting on good times, while we’re getting smacked with the regulatory stick.

Article

CPI Exceeds Expectations, Rate Hikes Back on the Table: BTC’s $73,000 Is a Critical Threshold, Not Support

Honestly, last night’s CPI report was even uglier than I expected.
October rose 0.4% month over month, versus expectations of 0.3%; core rose 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%. Core inflation has now been stuck at 0.3% for three straight months. And what’s even more absurd? The year-over-year data can’t be published at all—the government shutdown last year meant the data wasn’t collected. With data quality like this, the market is still using it to price global assets. It’s surreal.
Waller followed up with a warning: if inflation remains this stubborn, a 50 bp hike could be on the table in December. Note: a rate hike, not a cut. Futures markets are now pricing in an 89% chance of a 25 bp hike on December 9, which would put rates at 4.00%–4.25%.

Why do ancient giant whales keep waking up right after I get on board?
Why do institutional buyers suddenly stop buying as soon as I go long?
Why does Trump urge rate cuts right after I get stopped out?
How can my tiny position possibly drive repeated inflation in the U.S. economy? 🤔

Then I figured it out.
The market isn’t targeting me—
I’m the biggest fundamental behind this rally. 👊

#BTC

11.6 #BTC Intraday market analysis: the big guy will most likely sweep the liquidity around 75,000 once more. Don’t rush into a long position!

The pink line on the chart is 75,000. All three wick-downs over the past year got poked around this level and then bounced back 🤔
In other words, there’s money sitting below that hasn’t been taken yet.

My approach right now is simple: no buying, no limit orders—just set an alert.

There’s only one condition for going long—
Price first breaks below 75,000, then reclaims it, with a candlestick closing above 75,000.
Only after it holds and confirms will I consider entering on the right side 👊

I’m not placing an order in advance and waiting for it to crash.
That’s just guessing. I want to see price make the move first.

Stop loss: 1,500 points

Targets:
Target 1: 77,200
Target 2: 78,700
Target 3: 79,600
Target 4: 80,500
Target 5: 82,000

Set your alerts and wait patiently.
No predictions, no jumping the gun—no shooting until you see the rabbit~

I’ll only consider going long once 75,000 holds.
#BTC $BTC

10.29 #BTC Intraday Market Analysis: Don’t Guess the Direction in a Range—Split Your Positions to Stay in the Game!

First, look at the structure: 79,476–82,014 is the current range, with 84,019 as the previous high above it. Until price breaks out of this consolidation, any claims that it’s “definitely going up” or “definitely going down” are just hot air 🤔

I’m personally leaning bearish, but I’m not betting one position on two different ideas.

The USDT position is only for trading the range: sell high and buy low, go long or short as appropriate—no need to get attached to a view. Trim near the top of the range and buy near the bottom; make money from the range~

For the USDC position, scale into shorts gradually at 81,500, 83,000, and 84,000. There’s only one stop-loss condition: get out if a new high is made. If price doesn’t break the previous high, hold until around 76K 👊

The two positions must be kept physically separate. The medium-to-long-term position should actually be smaller—the potential profit is already big enough if the trade goes your way, so there’s no need to risk everything just to keep your nerve.

One last lesson from a mistake I’ve made myself: I used to be far too stubborn about holding losing trades. The market kept giving me chances to get out, but every time one came along, I’d think, “Things are finally looking up,” and end up holding all the way to liquidation.

It took me a while to realize that while holding a losing trade, I’d tell myself, “I’ll get out once I break even.” But when the chance to get out actually came, greed would kick in again 😤

Leaving a trade isn’t admitting defeat. Get out first, then look for a new entry. Close out the cause and effect of the previous trade—that’s how you stay in the game.

10.28 #SKHYNIX Follow-up: 1110 held, and price rebounded to 1140. Trade what you see!

Guys, take a look at the chart now: price spent the day hovering around 1110, then gradually climbed back to 1138—just a few points shy of testing the previous high at 1144 🤔

Here's what I'm saying:

Until 1110 breaks, the short trade plan stays exactly the same: go short on a breakdown, stop-loss at 1140, target 1040.

But at this level, don't chase shorts or longs. The 1140–1144 zone is an overhead resistance area from the previous sell-off. The first time price returns to test it, there's a good chance it'll get choppy.

1144 is the key level for the short trade: if price breaks above it on strong volume, the thesis is invalidated. I'll admit I was wrong—no stubbornness 😤

If price gets knocked back down and tests 1110 for a second time, that breakdown is the real opportunity 👊

What does it mean to share a plan in advance? I gave you the conditions while price was moving sideways at 1110 during the day. Now we just wait for it to choose a direction~

Don't guess. Don't gamble. Wait for a signal.

Hey, are you still sticking to your plan? 🧑🏻‍🎤

SKHYNIX-1.64%

Am I seeing things? 😂

How is anyone doing this project?

10.28 Long opportunity plan. Putting it here in advance and letting the market play out and confirm it 👊

Trade what you see, not what others talk about after the move is over 🤔

$ETH
Wait for the 4-hour candle to close and hold above 2400 before considering a bullish reversal.
No rush before it holds—keep your hands off.

Gold
Go long on a breakout above 4080, with a stop-loss at 4050;
If it pulls back to around 3970, go long there too, with a stop-loss at 3940.
First target: 4200. For the long term, still watching 4600 and 4800.

Silver
Watch for longs in the 53–56 range, with a stop-loss at 50 and targets at 63–70.

$DOGE
Buy spot in stages between 0.07 and 0.05, with a long-term outlook.
If you already have leveraged long positions, keep an eye on 0.083, 0.085, and 0.088.

$ZEC
Consider going long around 1116, with a stop-loss at 1075 and a target of 1360.

The plan is out in advance; the rest is up to the market.
If it reaches the level, take the trade. If it doesn’t, wait.

What you should fear most isn’t missing a move,
but having no opportunity and still trying to find a reason to enter 🤔

#ETH #BTC

Guys, I won’t ramble today about all the back-and-forth short-term price swings. My view hasn’t changed these past few days: the key focus is to stay locked in on Bitcoin (BTC) and the 87K level.

The setup for Ethereum (ETH) is also very clear: entries around 2750–2780 are fine, with a defensive stop-loss of just 45 points.
💡 Have you ever noticed a human weakness when reviewing your trades? When we’re bullish, we’ll desperately look for countless favorable factors to convince ourselves; when we’re bearish, it’s much the same.
A lot of people may still not understand what I’ve been waiting for lately. Put simply, I’m waiting for a move that breaks through and then quickly falls back below the level—the so-called false breakout.

📝 The specific trading plan is very clear now:
Place an initial short position near 87K to establish a base. For the rest of the main position, we absolutely must wait for a breakout followed by a move back down before adding! Manage your position according to this plan, and even if the market doesn’t go as expected and we have to sit through a 2,000-point stop-loss, your overall position should still be easy to handle.
First, we need to confirm our expectation that price will break above 87K and then fall back below it. Then we can assess whether it will actually break below the strong support on the daily chart. Don’t get carried away imagining how far it might fall after breaking below—that’s for later! And don’t keep thinking that because you shorted at 87K, this one trade has to deliver a certain profit target or a huge payday.
Remember, trading is about taking one trade at a time and moving on one trade at a time. Slow and steady wins the race.

To sum up:
For Bitcoin, open an initial short position at 87000, with a 2,000-point stop-loss. Add to the short if it breaks below 87000. Take-profit levels: 86000, 85200, 84400, and 83300.

$BTC

Bearish

Daily top bearish divergence pressing down—why I only wait for this one opportunity: a “breakout then retracement”

Last night, the fake-breakout short at 85,100 was closed at 83,200. Whether I executed it “correctly” isn’t the point—the key is that it confirmed one of my judgments from this period.

As long as the daily top bearish divergence on BTC hasn’t been digested, I don’t believe in any one-way rally. The market is still grinding within a consolidation range. In my view, there are only two paths—either use time to gain space and keep grinding, or move downward. The probabilities of both paths are higher than a direct V-shaped push to new highs.

But I won’t short, and I won’t go long.

Because inside a consolidation range, both sides are just guessing.

I only wait for one pattern: breakout + retracement. The breakout shows that someone is trying to break the balance, and the retracement shows the bulls failed. Only at that moment will the market’s probability stand with me. So I’ve abandoned all right-side breakout trades—not because they’re bad, but because I only trade what I understand.

Someone asked me why I don’t go long and look for 90k or 100k. I want to say: being right about direction and whether I can actually make money are two different things. Trading is about probabilities and risk/reward, not opinions.

A top bearish divergence doesn’t mean it must fall—it only means this area is worth being cautious. Every position I take includes a stop-loss, because I always keep respect for the market.

$BTC

In your trading system, is there a rule you “absolutely can’t ignore”? Let’s chat in the comments 👇

Bullish

Brothers, if you’re thinking of jumping into Robinhood, hold your horses first! I have a buddy who, seeing someone else on there make a thousand-fold killing today, instantly got insanely FOMO and started yelling that he was going to charge in and go hard. But I have to warn you all: he has one fatal rule. Every time he wants to jump in and ‘go hard,’ he ends up precisely becoming liquidity to be ‘gone hard on’ by the market makers. His mystical ‘entry equals inverse signal’ indicator still has a 100% accuracy rate so far and has never failed… Think it over, everyone. Still want to jump in?
#Robinhood #BTC

HOODB+0.42%

Bearish

#ETH Left side hanging order (Beijing time on the 20th, not triggered, canceled)

Entry: 3066-3090

Take profit: 2960-2870

Stop loss: 3170

Entry logic: The entry price is in the previous chip density area, and the recent price rebound is to sweep liquidity, the sharp drop is also
$ETH is still in the overall downtrend, be patient

Bullish

$ETH
Ethereum we are placing orders tonight

Entry 3050-3020
Target 3100-3165-3225
Stop Loss 2980
Buying Logic: 3050-3020 is a strong support area
Enter in batches for optimal cost price
Follow the major trend, counter the minor trend

Light position on the left, confirm and add on the right
Patience to hold, quietly waiting for low multiple compounding
$ETH #ETH走势分析