10.29 #BTC Intraday Market Analysis: Don’t Guess the Direction in a Range—Split Your Positions to Stay in the Game!
First, look at the structure: 79,476–82,014 is the current range, with 84,019 as the previous high above it. Until price breaks out of this consolidation, any claims that it’s “definitely going up” or “definitely going down” are just hot air 🤔
I’m personally leaning bearish, but I’m not betting one position on two different ideas.
The USDT position is only for trading the range: sell high and buy low, go long or short as appropriate—no need to get attached to a view. Trim near the top of the range and buy near the bottom; make money from the range~
For the USDC position, scale into shorts gradually at 81,500, 83,000, and 84,000. There’s only one stop-loss condition: get out if a new high is made. If price doesn’t break the previous high, hold until around 76K 👊
The two positions must be kept physically separate. The medium-to-long-term position should actually be smaller—the potential profit is already big enough if the trade goes your way, so there’s no need to risk everything just to keep your nerve.
One last lesson from a mistake I’ve made myself: I used to be far too stubborn about holding losing trades. The market kept giving me chances to get out, but every time one came along, I’d think, “Things are finally looking up,” and end up holding all the way to liquidation.
It took me a while to realize that while holding a losing trade, I’d tell myself, “I’ll get out once I break even.” But when the chance to get out actually came, greed would kick in again 😤
Leaving a trade isn’t admitting defeat. Get out first, then look for a new entry. Close out the cause and effect of the previous trade—that’s how you stay in the game.
First, look at the structure: 79,476–82,014 is the current range, with 84,019 as the previous high above it. Until price breaks out of this consolidation, any claims that it’s “definitely going up” or “definitely going down” are just hot air 🤔
I’m personally leaning bearish, but I’m not betting one position on two different ideas.
The USDT position is only for trading the range: sell high and buy low, go long or short as appropriate—no need to get attached to a view. Trim near the top of the range and buy near the bottom; make money from the range~
For the USDC position, scale into shorts gradually at 81,500, 83,000, and 84,000. There’s only one stop-loss condition: get out if a new high is made. If price doesn’t break the previous high, hold until around 76K 👊
The two positions must be kept physically separate. The medium-to-long-term position should actually be smaller—the potential profit is already big enough if the trade goes your way, so there’s no need to risk everything just to keep your nerve.
One last lesson from a mistake I’ve made myself: I used to be far too stubborn about holding losing trades. The market kept giving me chances to get out, but every time one came along, I’d think, “Things are finally looking up,” and end up holding all the way to liquidation.
It took me a while to realize that while holding a losing trade, I’d tell myself, “I’ll get out once I break even.” But when the chance to get out actually came, greed would kick in again 😤
Leaving a trade isn’t admitting defeat. Get out first, then look for a new entry. Close out the cause and effect of the previous trade—that’s how you stay in the game.
