天-涯

$BTC
BTC is fluctuating around $87,000, having tested the $85,000-$86,000 support three times without breaking it, but still below the descending trend line since October, with no clear reversal signals. Technically, the daily RSI has shown a bullish divergence, and the downward momentum is weakening, but both the weekly and daily moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, severely limiting the rebound strength. Market sentiment is quite weak, with nearly $750 million in long positions being liquidated, and the derivatives market is cautiously observing; the once-reliable "lifeline" of ETF inflows hasn't increased significantly, lacking strong support for an upward move.
Confirming the bottom requires meeting three hardcore conditions: first, stabilizing above the $94,000-$95,000 descending trend line; second, the daily and weekly charts need to show a volume-backed reversal pattern; third, weekly ETF inflows must remain stable and exceed $100 million.

The subsequent market scenario divides into two scripts: Optimistic: BTC holds above the $85,000 support and breaks through $94,000, confirming the bottom allows for light positions to follow, targeting $98,000-$100,000; Pessimistic: if it breaks below the $85,000 support, it is highly likely to drop into the $80,000-$82,000 range.

#美国讨论BTC战略储备 $PIPPIN $PIPPIN Insiders control 80% of the supply, making it too small and easily manipulated or subject to extreme fluctuations. There is no fundamental support; the surge relies entirely on emotion and control, with volatility comparable to a roller coaster. Earning is luck, losing is the norm, just treat it as entertainment and don't take it seriously.

$GUN Deep overbought, concentrated chips, high volatility, high pullback risk. No substantial profit support, relying solely on the chain game ecosystem.

Support 0.012

Resistance 0.020-0.023
MACD high position turning point, volume has not followed, short-term caution against chasing highs.

$PIPPIN is a meme coin on the Solana chain, experiencing a short-term surge but highly controlled and overbought, with extremely high risks, suitable only for very light speculative positions.
The 7-day increase exceeds 160%, insiders control about 80% of the supply, with a very small circulation, making it easy to manipulate prices and experience extreme volatility.

• Support: $0.32 (short-term lifeline), $0.28 (medium-term strong support)

• Resistance: $0.40 (intraday bullish-bearish line), $0.453 (previous high strong resistance)

Severe control, no substantial fundamentals, purely driven by emotions, may crash at any time, overbought + controlled, poor risk-reward ratio.

PIPPIN has no fundamental support, the surge relies entirely on emotions and control, with volatility comparable to a roller coaster. Making a profit is luck, losing is the norm, treat it as entertainment, don't take it seriously.

$OM
The "Compliance + RWA" of OM is a core highlight, but the progress of implementation, regulatory changes, and whale selling pressure are all potential risks.

$EPIC Caution: From NFT to RWA: Epic Chain's Comeback Story

Epic Chain, formerly known as Ethernity Chain, was renamed after a community vote and has shifted from the NFT sector to the RWA field, targeting a $50 trillion blue ocean market.

As an RWA Layer 2 solution, it integrates Ethereum EVM and XRP Ledger technology to achieve rapid settlement in 3-5 seconds, with transaction fees as low as $0.0001, assisting in bringing real assets like real estate and commodities on-chain; its no-code toolkit supports institutions and teams in issuing RWA tokens, asset fragmentation, and DeFi integration, allowing users to earn XRP-related income.

The EPIC token is of ERC-20 type, with a total circulation of 30 million tokens, used for governance, staking, and transaction fee payments, currently valued at $15.64 million, ranking at 1251, with small market cap associated with high volatility and liquidity risks.

As of 2025-12-17 13:00 (UTC+8), the EPIC price is $0.523, up 8.90% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $2.1 million; technically, the RSI has touched the overbought line and is retreating, indicating short-term pullback risks, with support levels at $0.485/$0.46 and resistance levels at $0.505/$0.54.

In terms of operations, if it stabilizes above $0.505, it is advisable to take a small position (≤20%), with a stop loss below $0.48; for medium to long-term, it is recommended to reassess in the $0.45-$0.47 range.

Key points to avoid pitfalls: verify contract addresses, stay away from 'zombie coins' like EPL, ELP; position should not exceed 5% of total assets, use spare money to participate; closely monitor the project's RWA implementation, regulatory compliance, and technological stability progress.

Epic Chain's transformation ideas are impressive, but uncertainties remain for small market cap projects, and future value is yet to be tested.

$FORM If it can't go down, it will continue to rise

$USTC USTC Magical Life: From a $18 billion market cap stablecoin giant to a $0.01 "fairy coin"! Algorithm collapse + no anchoring + low liquidity, a gambler's heartbeat game, proceed with caution!

Don't dream of USTC returning to $1! It is now a speculative coin supported only by community loyalty and upgrade rumors, with high inflation risks, poor liquidity; it's fine for small play money, but heavy investment could lead to pitfalls!

Can USTC make a comeback? Difficult! It has fallen over 99% from its peak, struggling on second-tier exchanges, with ecological implementation at a snail's pace. The low entry barrier is tempting, but the structural flaws are significant pitfalls; the survival rule in the crypto world: recognize the risks, don't be greedy!

Crypto melodrama: USTC has fallen from the three giants of stablecoins to a speculative target of the "dream of restoration." In the short term, it relies on news to drive impulses, but long-term structural issues are hard to resolve; it's all about the thrill, approach with caution!

$FORM high-quality targets, can find a position to enter. 1. Crypto transformation king FORM: from GameFi veteran BNX to a versatile player in the Web3 ecosystem, meme issuance + IGO + DeFi + governance all handled, backed by Binance + no additional issuance and no private placement, this comeback has something going on!

2. FORM's comeback story: backed by BNB Chain, four major modules solidifying the ecological closed loop, 24h increase of 38.81%, trading volume skyrocketing! Seize the IGO and DeFi upgrade dividends, beware of volatility risks in small and medium market caps～

3. How appealing is FORM with no additional issuance and no private placement? GameFi transforming into Web3 king, Chinese community accounts for over 40%, ecological synergy is in a positive cycle, looking long-term is promising!

4. Taking a poor hand in GameFi and turning it into a Web3 ace, that's FORM! No barrier to issuing meme coins, staking to grab IGO spots, though fluctuations are large, opportunities are abundant, those who understand are already researching～

$BTC $XRP The strong U.S. non-farm data trading insights

The core gap in trading has never been in methodology, but in execution and risk management.

The root of most traders' losses lies in the imbalance of position allocation: aggressive full positions can lead to liquidation, while overly conservative positions can miss opportunities. Behind this is a scientific allocation logic.

A reliable position management system must anchor on three points: dynamically adjusting positions according to account risk tolerance, building positions in batches to hedge entry risks, and setting stop-loss and take-profit points in advance. This method has been validated through multiple market cycles.

Taking the unexpected strength of this non-farm data as an example, many either blindly increase positions or panic sell. Rational operations should rely on a judgment framework: analyzing whether the data is a signal of policy shift or cyclic volatility, and judging whether the current price has digested the good news. Systematic decision-making is much more profitable than emotional trading.

Trend recognition is similar; relying solely on one or two indicators can easily lead to false breakouts. It is necessary to combine volume, structure, and cyclical multi-dimensional verification. Refining this judgment ability is the core "hard currency" of trading.#美国非农数据超预期

$BTC $ETH Cryptocurrency Market Bottom-Fishing Strategy (Simplified Version)

Core Conclusion: Bottom not confirmed, currently in the bottom building phase; gradually allocate BTC/ETH in spot, closely monitor support and signals, and temporarily observe altcoins.

I. Market Direction

1. Bottoming Phase: BTC/ETH is oscillating in the key support range with low volatility and reduced volume, no bottoming signal has appeared.

2. Core Assets: BTC (Institutional ETF support), ETH (Fusaka upgrade benefits) serve as barometers for market trends.

II. Key Support/Resistance and Risks
Currency Support Level Break Below Resistance Level Risk Warning
BTC 85000-86000$ 81000-74000$ 92000-94000$ -
ETH 2800-3000$ - 3500$ 2.2 million coins to be unlocked, beware of selling pressure

III. Entry Signals (Must meet all criteria)

1. BTC/ETH funding rate turns positive;

2. Continuous net inflow of whale holdings;

3. BTC stabilizes above 94000 or ETH stabilizes above 3200.

IV. Gradual Accumulation Strategy

1. Position Allocation: 10%→10%→20%→20%→30%, add once every 5%-10% drop, total position not exceeding 30%-50% of principal.

2. Accumulation Nodes

◦ BTC: 87000→82000→77000→72000→67000$

◦ ETH: 2900→2700→2500→2300→2100$

V. Altcoin Strategy

1. Current Risk: The top 10 currencies account for 94% of the market value, altcoin liquidity is poor, easily drained by mainstream coin trends.

2. Entry Timing: Wait for mainstream coins to break through the consolidation range and for market sentiment to improve, then cautiously test head altcoins (such as SOL/ADA) with small positions.

VI. Risk Control Rules

1. Single currency position not exceeding 20%, BTC+ETH proportion ≥ 80%;

2. Retain 30%-50% cash to cope with extreme declines;

3. If BTC falls below 74000 or ETH falls below 2500, decisively reduce positions to below 10%.

$BTC $ETH $APT The cryptocurrency market collectively 'lies flat': 75 out of the top 100 coins have fallen below key moving averages, with Bitcoin leading the plunge.

To describe the recent atmosphere in the cryptocurrency market, it can be summed up as 'a sea of green looking towards money, with players in the coin circle collectively sighing.' CoinDesk's analytical data has poured cold water on the market: among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, a staggering 75 have fallen below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. This is akin to having 75 out of the top 100 students in a class failing to pass, showcasing the extent of weakness in the digital asset market.

Even 'top students' like Ethereum and Solana have not escaped unscathed, as they too have fallen below key moving averages. These major coins account for 78% of the $3 trillion market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market, which is analogous to a large group collectively dropping the ball, making it hard for market sentiment to be positive. The root cause can be traced back to Bitcoin, the 'big brother' of the coin circle, which has plummeted from a historical high of over $126,000 at the beginning of October to $87,000, truly leading the plunge and directly causing a collapse in the market's capital flow. What was once considered the 'pillar of the coin circle' has now become a 'burden'.

Interestingly, the adjacent Nasdaq 100 index has only 29 stocks exhibiting similar weakness, with tech stocks at least maintaining some market breadth. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market is simply 'a sight too painful to behold.' It’s worth noting that Bitcoin usually has a tight correlation with the Nasdaq, but during a bear market, its downward fluctuations can escalate, showcasing a 'faster decline.'

What’s even more concerning is that currently, only 8 cryptocurrencies are showing oversold conditions on the relative strength index. Coins like PI and APT are among the few that seem to have 'hit the bottom', while the majority of other tokens appear to be 'running wildly downwards', not even close to hitting the brakes. Analysts openly state that the cryptocurrency market is likely to continue 'moving under pressure' in the short term, and players in the coin circle will probably need to tighten their wallets for a while longer.

$ETH $SOL Japan's interest rate hike weighs heavily, and panic spreads in the crypto market: cut losses, wait and see, or buy the dip?

The aftershocks of Black Monday continue, and the crypto market is deeply mired in a correction. Coupled with strong expectations of a rate hike in Japan in December, the battle between bulls and bears has intensified, placing investors in a difficult position.

According to CoinGlass data, over 115,000 accounts liquidated in the last 24 hours, totaling $272 million, with long positions accounting for over 88%. Bitcoin has broken below the $85,000 support level, retreating over 30% from the October peak; Ethereum is approaching $2,900, with mainstream coins dropping over 5%, and smaller coins down over 15%, leading the market fear index to enter the "extreme fear" zone.

The probability of a rate hike at the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19 is over 90%, with expectations that the interest rate will rise from 0.5% to 0.75% (a 30-year high). This move will end yen arbitrage trading and withdraw liquidity from the market. Historical data shows that after each rate hike in 2024, Bitcoin has retreated over 20%.

In contrast to retail investors selling off, whales and institutions are buying in against the trend, with wallets holding 10-10,000 Bitcoins continuously increasing their positions, accelerating the concentration of chips towards the top.

Three strategies can be referenced:

1. Cut losses and exit: Avoid potential new declines triggered by interest rate hikes, but be wary of missing out on opportunities.

2. Hold and wait: Keep a close eye on Bitcoin's $85,000 and Ethereum's $2,900 support levels, reduce leverage to avoid forced liquidation.

3. Increase positions and build strength: Long-term investors can gradually allocate to mainstream coins, with each increase not exceeding 10% of total funds, waiting for sentiment to recover after the rate hike.

$ACE Two tokens with the same name, one lying flat and one "taking a gamble", don't recklessly charge into niche tracks
In the crypto world, two tokens with the same name, Acent (ACE) and Fusionist (ACE), are like "fire and ice". Acent (ACE) is completely stagnant, while Fusionist (ACE) is fluctuating in the blockchain gaming track. The key factors to assess are liquidity, value support, and track popularity.

1. Acent (ACE): The "invisible man" in the crypto world, resolutely avoids
As of December 15, 2025, its price is only $0.000014, with a 71.77% drop in the last 30 days and a 99.69% crash in the last year. The 24-hour trading volume is only 18,000 yuan, with 94.84% of trades concentrated on a single trading pair, and liquidity is nearly exhausted. The project lacks technological iteration, application scenarios, and funding endorsement, and is highly likely to remain stagnant in the short term. Blindly entering will surely become a bag holder.

2. Fusionist (ACE): A potential stock in blockchain games, with opportunities and risks evenly split
In mid-December, the price is $0.221, with a market cap of $18.56 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $6.72 million. Its liquidity is far better than the former, and in the short term, it will fluctuate with the overall crypto market and the blockchain gaming track. It relies on AAA-grade blockchain games, constructing a value accumulation logic through in-game burning, transaction fee destruction, and NFT minting consumption. However, the uncertainty is extremely high: in the short term, attention must be paid to the stability of the mainnet, user growth, and gaming activities; in the medium term, the anti-inflation capability of the economic model and the activity of the derivatives market must be verified, while also being wary of development delays, track competition, model imbalance, and regulatory changes.

Both are high-risk niche targets. Acent (ACE) is directly blacklisted; Fusionist (ACE) has track dividends but is highly volatile. To participate, one must closely monitor user growth, economic models, and track popularity, take light positions for short-term rebounds, wait for project implementation in the medium to long term, strictly control positions throughout, and be wary of the risk of sudden liquidity shrinkage in niche coins.

$ZEC The Three Key Scenarios for Future Market Trends

ZEC is undoubtedly the “troubled party” in the crypto world—after a plunge, it rebounded by 40%, but is now hesitating before the resistance level, like a young kid wanting to break in but afraid of getting caught. It stands at the crossroads of rebound and risk, looking at the technical indicators in the short term, the institutional and regulatory battles in the medium term, and whether technology and demand can align in the long term. Here are some concrete insights:

Short term: The resistance level is the “line of life and death,” and funds provide confidence.
As of December 16, 2025, ZEC is fluctuating in the range of $400-440, with a symmetrical triangle pattern forming in the technical analysis. The $420 level has previously failed to break through, while $442 is a key resistance; if it stabilizes, it could challenge $520; if it faces pressure and falls back, it might drop to $403 or even $340. Fortunately, funds are strong, with a 24-hour spot trading volume of $1.28 billion and futures at $5.5 billion, providing backing for the breakout.

Medium term: Institutions and regulators are “arm wrestling,” with gains and losses evenly split.
On the bullish side, Cypherpunk has set up a $100 million ZEC treasury and plans to increase its holdings to 5% of total supply. Grayscale has applied to convert its ZEC trust to an ETF (approval would attract compliant funds), and institutions like France's BPCE Bank are entering the fray, increasing exposure. On the bearish side, the EU's MiCA regulations have led to South Korean exchanges delisting ZEC, and new anti-money laundering rules in 2027 may fully ban privacy coins. The script is clear: ETF approval could push prices to $700, while increased regulation could halve liquidity and lead to price corrections.

Long term: Technology + demand are the trump cards, conditions must be met for targets to be achieved.
ZEC's confidence lies in its technology: a dynamic fee model that addresses congestion and cost issues, Halo iterations + quantum-resistant upgrades strengthen its moat; combined with the privacy demand generated by digitalization, it perfectly matches its optional privacy model. Some traders estimate a long-term target price of $4,900, but sustained capital inflow + broad market participation is required. However, competitors are lurking; Monero and Ethereum Layer 2 privacy solutions are vying for market share, and a lag in technological iteration could lead to being suppressed.

Ultimately, there are no miracles in ZEC's market; short-term focus on breakthroughs, medium-term on battles, and long-term on implementation.

$BTC $ETH Encrypted Ecosystem Dynamic Tracking: Making Money with Contracts is Far from "Just Seeing the Right Direction" So Simple

Many beginners, like I once was, believe that as long as they can judge the market direction correctly in contract trading, they can make a guaranteed profit. However, reality gave me a heavy blow——in half a year, I lost 730,000.

What hurt the most was that I was mostly right in my market judgments, but my operations consistently resulted in losses. After reviewing my trading records, I realized that what crushed me wasn’t the market, but the three traps set by the big players.

The first trap was being too eager to chase after the rise, entering the market too aggressively. As soon as the market showed a breakthrough signal, I rushed in with all my capital, but the result was often that I was immediately caught in a spike and repeatedly harvested.

The second trap was rigidly holding on to fixed stop losses. I used to set static stop losses at 3% or 5%, which seemed rational, but in the high volatility of contracts, this was just giving money to the big players. Several times, I was swept out by false breakdowns; as soon as I stopped my losses, the market surged in the direction I had predicted. My judgments and stop loss rules weren’t wrong, yet I missed the opportunity. At that moment, I understood that stop losses should be a dynamic defense line adjusted according to market fluctuations and candlestick structures, rather than rigid numbers.

The third trap, and the most deadly, was going all-in with heavy positions. Even if the directional judgment is accurate, holding heavy positions is gambling. A single reverse fluctuation can instantly wipe out the account. That night, watching the liquidation warning and the zero balance, the feeling of helplessness is still hard to forget.

After climbing out of the abyss of losses, I set three iron rules: first, never go all-in; divide the position into three parts to maintain the initiative in entering and exiting; second, dynamically adjust stop losses, combining market rhythm and candlestick structure to determine exit points, protecting the principal and avoiding being washed out by false signals; third, when I don't understand the market, wait with a flat position; having no position itself is an important position management strategy.

In the crypto world, those who survive are the ultimate winners. Stories of overnight riches are few and far between, while more are tales of losing everything overnight. The road of contract trading is lonely and easily confusing. I want to share the pits I’ve stepped in and the rules I’ve verified. If you’re also exploring stable trading methodologies, we can discuss specific execution details and operational rhythms together.

After all, what can help you traverse market cycles is never the tempting myth of sudden wealth, but those dull yet practical trading systems that withstand real-world testing.