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Bitcoin is fighting to hold $80,000 after three consecutive weeks of losses. The broader crypto market remains under pressure as weak investor confidence and volatility in global stocks weigh on prices. Yet a handful of altcoins are moving against the trend.
Three tokens stand out in the last week of October: MemeCore (M), Ethena (ENA), and Zcash (ZEC).
MemeCore has staged a sharp recovery despite its longer-term downtrend. Ethena is approaching a potential breakout, while Zcash is attracting renewed investor interest as its price approaches a critical level.
AltcoinCurrent priceKey supportKey resistanceRSI statusOutlookMemeCore (M)$0.97$0.75$0.976 / $1.75Neutral, improvingBearish until breakoutEthena (ENA)$0.205$0.188$0.244NeutralCautiously bullishZcash (ZEC)$1,228$1,091$1,234 / $1,411NeutralCautiously bullish
MemeCore (M): Can a 44% Rally Reverse Its Downtrend?
MemeCore is one of the week’s biggest gainers, climbing nearly 44% despite months of declining prices. However, the token is approaching a resistance level that could determine whether its recovery continues or fades.
The immediate test: M is trading near $0.97, just below the $0.976 resistance level. A recent attempt to move above $1 met selling pressure, suggesting buyers have yet to regain control.
Bullish scenario: Breaking and holding above $0.976 would strengthen the recovery. If momentum continues, the next major target is $1.75, representing roughly 80% potential upside from current prices.
Bearish scenario: Another rejection could push M toward $0.75, its strongest remaining support. That would represent a decline of around 23%.
The RSI has recovered to a neutral reading, showing improving momentum. However, the broader downtrend remains intact until buyers establish a convincing breakout.
M daily chart. Source: TradingView Ethena (ENA): A Major Price Move Could Be Coming
Ethena has gained nearly 8% over the past week while maintaining a pattern of higher lows since August. Its price movements are becoming increasingly narrow, suggesting traders could soon see a larger move.
The immediate test: ENA has repeatedly defended support at $0.188, even after an October token unlock. This suggests buyers remain active near that level.
Bullish scenario: If buyers maintain control, ENA could rise toward $0.244, approximately 19% above its current price.
Bearish scenario: Losing $0.188 would weaken the recovery and raise the risk of further declines.
Trading volume is falling, and Bollinger Bands are tightening. This pattern often appears before a sharp price move, although it does not predict the direction. ENA’s higher lows give buyers a modest advantage for now.
ENA daily chart. Source: TradingView Zcash (ZEC): ETF Demand Meets a Critical Breakout Test
Zcash has gained 7% this week, with renewed institutional interest providing an additional reason to watch the token.
Grayscale’s Zcash investment product reportedly attracted $41.1 million in weekly inflows, its strongest showing since mid-September. Meanwhile, ZEC’s price is approaching a technical level that could determine its next move.
Key price signals and forecast:
The immediate test: ZEC is attempting to reclaim $1,234 as support. A daily close above this level would strengthen the bullish case.
Bullish scenario: A confirmed breakout could open the path toward $1,411, offering nearly 15% potential upside.
Bearish scenario: Failure to hold momentum could send ZEC back toward $1,091. Falling below that support would weaken the recovery significantly.
Like Ethena, Zcash is showing narrowing Bollinger Bands and declining volume. Its RSI remains neutral, leaving the next move uncertain.
ZEC daily chart. Source: TradingView
For now, the combination of renewed fund inflows and an approaching resistance test makes Zcash one of the more closely watched altcoins this week.

Remember DOGE? Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, which was appointed by Trump to cut costs and streamline federal operations. Its former employees are now hacking AI giant Anthropic.
Four ex-employees of DOGE hacked Anthropic’s internal systems using AI agents within 12 hours. The news broke on the same day Anthropic filed to go public.
How Did a Small Startup Get Inside Anthropic?
DOGE was the cost-cutting office Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy ran for President Donald Trump. Its 2025 cuts helped push more than 250,000 people out of the federal workforce.
The office itself closed on July 4, 2026, with little fanfare. Less than three weeks later, four of its alumni surfaced with a $1.4 billion military cyber startup.
The startup is called Cathedral, founded by Gavin Kliger, Luke Farritor, Marko Elez, and Jack Stein.
The researchers first spent several days attacking Anthropic’s own software, Anthropic said. They failed. So the AI agents went around it. They hit unnamed outside tools used for sales and admin work.
Those routes led to meeting transcripts, salaries, job offers, and Slack chats about advanced AI models, according to a Cathedral draft report seen by the Post.
“The fact that weaknesses in ordinary enterprise software can compromise the infrastructure of even the most advanced organizations should be a wake-up call for every company in America,” the Post indicated, citing Cathedral’s draft report.
This was not a crime. It ran through Anthropic’s bug bounty program, which pays outsiders to find and report security holes.
BREAKING: AI cybersecurity startup founded by ex-DOGE staffers breaches Anthropic's internal systems in under 12 hours using AI agents, accessing sensitive employee data & Slack messages.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 26, 2026
Why Is Anthropic Pushing Back?
Anthropic confirmed Cathedral reached a “limited set” of its sales, HR, and IT systems. It said customer chats, source code, and model weights, the files that make Claude work, were never touched.
“Our monitoring flagged some of Cathedral’s activity before they reported it to us, and we shut off their access the same day,” the report stated, citing Anthropic.
Anthropic also said Cathedral broke program rules by not disclosing all its activity, and overstated the national security risk.
Cathedral raised $160 million in July at a $1.4 billion valuation, led by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital. A senior Trump administration official told the Post three federal agencies have hired the startup.
Anthropic now heads toward its Nasdaq IPO debut, after a public filing reported Monday. It’s reported valuation of up to $2 trillion is “nuts”, according to Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory firm deVere Group.
Anthropic says it found no sign that anyone else used the flaws.

Brazil just witnessed one of the most shocking election results of the year, as incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected by defeating right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, with a narrow 51.77% vote. And this result will likely have a massive impact on Brazil’s financial markets and stock market.
Lula’s victory confirms a scenario that investment analysts had flagged for months.
How Will Brazil’s Stock Market React?
Ahead of the vote, specialists heard on the outcome described a market that had already priced in a continuation of the liberal agenda.
In their view, the shift in expectations after the first round adjusted investor positioning for a stricter fiscal framework.
Gabriel Magno, head of investment allocation and partner at AW Capital, warned that a Lula win would undo much of that move.
“With a potential Lula victory, I believe the market will feel it, and feel it hard. All the pricing done after the first round will reverse, which will have a very strong effect on stocks, interest rates and the dollar. The market priced in fiscal improvement, lower interest rates and a country more responsible with its public accounts. With Lula, investors don’t have that confidence and would give back all of those gains,” Magno said.
And the initial market reaction shows that damage.
BREAKING: Brazil's stock market collapses nearly -30% and the Brazilian Real loses -10% after President Lula da Silva is unexpectedly re-elected.Brazil's stock market has lost over $200 billion of market cap today. pic.twitter.com/XsHVYmepvV
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 26, 2026
Higher Interest Rates, Weaker Currency
With Lula in office, the experts expect an immediate rise in futures interest rates and a weaker currency, requiring a defensive restructuring of investment portfolios.
Josias Bento, investment specialist and partner at GT Capital, projects a more cautious allocation for this scenario and stresses the need for protection outside the country.
“The best risk-return would be investments abroad. If Lula doesn’t have a fiscal plan for the coming years, the dollar could rise sharply and push inflation higher,” Bento said.
In fixed income, he notes that fixed-rate bonds could suffer if the market demands higher yields to finance the government, driving down the prices of existing securities.
Lucas Xavier, head of the equities desk and partner at AW Capital, sees fiscal pressure on government bonds as the main driver of volatility under a PT administration.
“Fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds would inevitably lose value by their very nature, since futures rates are expected to spike in the event of a Lula victory,” Xavier said.
Dollar Earners as a Hedge
With interest rates held at elevated levels to contain inflation and mitigate sovereign credit risk, Xavier argues that stock allocation will require a focus on defensive companies with dollar revenue.
“Companies whose results are directly tied to the dollar, such as Embraer and WEG, could be interesting options in the event of a Lula victory. It doesn’t really affect how the businesses operate; it would simply be a matter of dollar revenue being worth more in reais,” he said.
Homebuilders focused on low-income buyers, such as Cury and Direcional, also stand out as specific exceptions, since they benefit directly from programs like Minha Casa Minha Vida, the federal affordable housing program.
What Happens Next for Brazil’s Financial Markets?
Brazil’s market crash has raised one question: can Lula restore investor confidence?
The next major tests are his choice of finance minister and whether his administration presents a credible plan to control public debt.
Until then, the real could face further pressure, government borrowing costs may remain elevated, and hopes for interest rate cuts could fade.
A weaker currency also risks pushing inflation higher, making life more expensive for Brazilian households.
Markets could recover some losses if Lula reassures investors. However, without a convincing fiscal strategy, Brazil could face months of volatility, with stocks and bonds remaining vulnerable.

Anthropic just officially filed for its IPO, which will make the Claude AI developer publicly traded on the stock market under the ANT ticker. But the filing reveals a massive $265.5 billion risk that most investors missed.
Anthropic must pay about $265.6 billion for computing power whether or not customers use its AI.
That is roughly 16 times its $16.3 billion in first-half revenue. That means Anthropic is already paying hundreds of billions in operating costs more than its profit.
Anthropic Has to Pay Cloud Giants for Almost 10 Years, Regardless of Its Profitability
This huge bill is reserved for cloud giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. Anthropic rents their computing power to operate Claude AI.
So, regardless of how much profit the company makes, Anthropic needs to pay:
$114.5 billion to Google until July 2033
$110 billion to Amazon until April 2036
$44.9 billion to Microsoft until May 2033
These are approximate numbers. The final bills can be much higher.
Each deal requires payment regardless of actual usage. If Anthropic underspends with Google or Amazon, it pays them the difference. None can be cancelled unless the provider breaches it and fails to fix it.
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.Read more: https://t.co/zuRMrxXzNxLegal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities…
— Anthropic (@AnthropicAI) October 26, 2026
What Happens If AI Demand Slows?
The risk lies in how Anthropic earns money. About 80% of first-half revenue depended on how much customers used its AI models, rather than flat subscriptions.
“Our revenue is primarily consumption-based, and much of it is not subject to long-term contractual commitments, while our compute and infrastructure commitments generally extend over multiple years.”
If revenue falls behind those payments, Anthropic says it “may be unable to satisfy these obligations.” The filing warns a default on some deals could force early repayment of nearly all its debt.
What Would Happen to Anthropic IPO Investors Then?
If Anthropic defaulted, the filing describes a chain reaction, and IPO investors would be last in line to get paid.
If a default on some deals triggered the cross-default clauses, the filing warns of:
Several creditors moving at once to recover what they’re owed.
Key commercial contracts being terminated.
Enforcement actions against the company’s assets.
Severe cash shortages.
Losing the debt and the data centers together “could impair our ability to train and deploy models, serve customers, and fund ongoing operations,” the filing says.
What it means for shareholders:
[if these risks happen], “the market price of our Class A common stock could decline, and you could lose part or all of your investment.”
Class A is the stock being sold in the IPO.
Lenders and contract counterparties get paid before shareholders. If debts are called in early and the money runs short, creditors take what’s left first. Stockholders get whatever remains, which can be nothing.
“Nobody’s disputing the business is extraordinary. The issue is who carries the risk if the spending runs ahead of the revenue. After this listing, the answer is the public,” Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory firm deVere Group, said in a statement to BeInCrypto.
Green added that a listing this size is likely to reach index funds and pensions fairly quickly. That could leave millions of savers holding shares without choosing to.
The filing doesn’t say how likely any of this is, and Anthropic had $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of June.
Notably, Anthropic has misjudged demand before, though in the other direction. It says it “significantly underestimated” past computing needs and ran short of capacity.
Why Anthropic’s Numbers Point the Other Way
The growth figures offer the counterpoint. Revenue rose 1,368% year over year in the second quarter, while computing costs grew 300%.
Anthropic also booked $974 million in operating profit that quarter, its first among the six quarters shown. It held $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of June.
Still, doubts are growing over who pays for the AI build-out. Ramp data shows a small group of heavy spenders drives most business AI budgets.
AI Spend rises for the top 1%. Source: Ramp
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has warned an AI chip glut could crash computing prices.
Google, Amazon, and Microsoft sit on the other side of these contracts. Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft all report quarterly earnings this week. Anthropic, listing on Nasdaq as ANT, has not yet set a price range.
Green called the listing “a referendum on the entire AI trade.” A strong debut could draw a queue of AI listings, he said, while a stumble could reset tech valuations fast.

For decades, index funds have used dividends to buy more stock. Franklin Templeton wants to use them to buy Bitcoin (BTC) instead.
The asset manager has filed for two Nasdaq-listed funds, each starting with 95% stocks and 5% Bitcoin exposure. Neither has launched yet.
Why does this matter for Bitcoin? Index funds invest in baskets of major company stocks. When those companies pay dividends, or cash rewards to shareholders, the money usually goes back into buying more stocks. Franklin Templeton wants to use that money to buy Bitcoin exposure instead, creating a regular source of BTC demand.
How Would a Stock Dividend Become Bitcoin?
One fund holds the 500 largest US companies. The other holds the 100 biggest Nasdaq-listed firms, minus finance companies.
Each starts with 95% in stocks and 5% in Bitcoin. Then the dividends start flowing.
“All regular and special dividends are reinvested into Bitcoin at the market open on the day following the dividend ex-date, which increases Bitcoin exposure over time,” reads an excerpt in the prospectus.
The fees are low. The larger fund charges 0.09% a year, or $9 on every $10,000 in year one.
Launching soon…ETFs that hold US stocks & reinvest any dividends into bitcoin.Basically like investing in S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 w/ dividends going to btc.Targeting 5% btc allocation.Think smart product design by Franklin Templeton.Easy way for everyday investors to gain… pic.twitter.com/3JkVFughjS
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) October 25, 2026
The Fund Will Automatically Sell Bitcoin When Price Rallies
Here is the twist. Every quarter, any Bitcoin share above 5% gets cut back to 4.5%. If it passes 20% between reviews, it is reset to 4.5% within two business days.
How the Franklin Templeton Bitcoin ETF allocation works
So, a Bitcoin rally triggers selling. A crash does the opposite, leaving fresh dividends to buy at lower prices.
The funds won’t hold coins directly. They will buy Bitcoin funds, including Franklin-affiliated ones, alongside futures and options. Franklin says it may waive fees on its own products, but it can end that waiver at any time.
Franklin’s own prospectus calls Bitcoin highly speculative and prone to big price swings.
The wider debate is loud. Himalaya Capital founder Li Lu called crypto fundamentally bogus last week. BlackRock, which manages more money than any rival, recommends a 1-2% Bitcoin position.
Franklin’s design sits closer to BlackRock’s camp. Its Bitcoin slice starts at 5% and gets trimmed once it grows.
The real test comes when trading begins on Nasdaq, where Franklin has registered the shares.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has overtaken the best human minds in mathematics, says Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. He calls AI the new apex predator, yet almost no one seems to notice.
His claim follows a month in which AI matched elite students at the world’s toughest math contest. Yet the same systems still stumble on ordinary professional work.
Did AI Just Cross the Line in Mathematics?
Edwards, a member of BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence Expert Council, made the case on X on October 21.
“This is a evolutionary turning point. The last month has been perhaps the first time AI has surpassed the best human intelligence in certain fields, like mathematics. Human intelligence is now no longer the apex predator.”
At the 2026 International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO), models from Huawei and Xiaohongshu scored a perfect 42 out of 42.
Only seven of 666 human contestants managed the same, according to the official IMO results.
In early October, OpenAI gave an unreleased model roughly 4,000 open problems. It returned 722 research manuscripts grouped into 372 families of results.
Stefano Gogioso, an Oxford lecturer on BeInCrypto’s Future Tech and AI Experts Council, put it bluntly.
Mathematical rigour is now free.
AI’s builders go further. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in July that the world is “now, like, in the singularity.”
Elon Musk, meanwhile, told The Economist that AI could exceed humanity’s combined intelligence by around 2031.
Who Feels the Predator First?
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that young job seekers face the greatest risk.
Payroll data backs her up. Employment of 22- to 25-year-olds in highly AI-exposed jobs now sits 19% below its expected trend, per Stanford researchers.
That gap stood at 15% a year earlier. It stems from fewer hires rather than mass firings.
Layoff announcements tell a louder story. US employers cited AI in 120,136 planned job cuts through September, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That is about 21% of all 2026 cuts.
Is Bitcoin’s Math Next on the Menu?
The same release rattled crypto. Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake argued that mathematical superintelligence had arrived.
He urged large holders to prepare a “bunker mode,” moving funds to never-used addresses.
The fear is that AI-driven math could weaken Bitcoin’s wallet cryptography without any quantum computer. Every address that has sent funds exposes its public key on-chain.
However, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin advised against rushed migrations. Coinbase cryptographer Yehuda Lindell dismissed the warning as alarm without evidence.
So far, there is no sign that the underlying cryptography has been broken.
Where Does the AI Apex Predator Still Fall Short?
OpenAI itself cautioned that not every proof has been independently verified. Gogioso also noted that many of the solved problems were already close to a human solution.
Paid work is harder still. Scale AI’s Remote Labor Index tests agents on real freelance projects. The top agent delivers professional-quality work on about 21%.
That share stood at 2.5% when the index launched a year ago. Former Meta chief AI scientist Yann LeCun still argues that human-level AI remains years away.
That jagged record may explain the silence Edwards describes. AI now dominates narrow arenas while staying patchy across the wider economy.
AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton once suggested asking a chicken what life is like below the apex of intelligence. For graduates and Bitcoin holders, that question no longer feels hypothetical.

XRP (XRP) withdrawals now outnumber deposits on crypto exchanges, nearing their August levels. Meanwhile, the token’s risk-adjusted returns on Binance have sunk to a four-month low.
Both readings come two days before the Federal Reserve’s October 28 rate decision. The Fed’s guidance may decide which of the two signals traders act on.
XRP Withdrawals Crowd Out Deposits on Exchanges
The first signal comes from exchange transaction counts. Analyst Amr Taha reported that withdrawals made up 55.75% of Binance’s 7-day XRP deposit and withdrawal transactions on October 25.
Across all centralized exchanges, the withdrawal share reached 54.85%. Both readings sit within 1 percentage point of their August 18 levels. Deposit shares fell to 44.25% on Binance and 45.15% across all exchanges.
However, the metric counts transactions, not XRP volume. A withdrawal-heavy mix shows more transfers leaving exchanges, not necessarily more tokens.
XRP deposit and withdrawal transaction share on Binance and all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
Binance also stands apart on the size of those withdrawals. Its seven-day whale-versus-retail outflow spread read 49.5% on October 26, compared with 29.7% across all exchanges. That 19.8-point gap was just 2.5 points on July 28.
Value data adds a complication. Large holders recently sent $112.4 million worth of XRP to Binance, the most in seven months, BeInCrypto reported. Big players therefore appear active in both directions on Binance. The flows alone cannot confirm that exchange supply is tightening.
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Weak Returns Leave XRP Leaning on Fed Guidance
That uncertainty matters because XRP’s returns have lagged its swings. Binance’s XRP Sharpe-like ratio fell to about -0.2641, its lowest level in four months, per Arab Chain.
“The decline in Binance’s XRP Sharpe-like Ratio points to worsening risk-adjusted returns, suggesting that the returns generated during the measured period have become less attractive relative to the level of risk and volatility involved,” the analyst wrote.
Binance XRP Sharpe-like ratio at four-month low. Source: CryptoQuant
XRP trades at $1.29, down 1.68% over the past 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets. With returns already weak, the token now faces its next macro test on October 28.
XRP Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
That test comes from a Fed in tightening mode. The central bank raised rates by 25 basis points in September, its first hike since July 2023.
Traders expect a pause this week before another move. CME FedWatch prices a 90.6% chance of a hold at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28. The same tool puts the odds of a December hike at 79.7%.
With a hold largely priced in, the Fed’s December signal may matter more for XRP than the decision itself. Firm hints at another hike could weigh further on risk appetite. A softer tone could give the withdrawal trend room to reach the price.
Still, neither metric forecasts direction. A four-month low in the Sharpe-like ratio does not mean XRP must keep falling. Transaction counts also cannot confirm that supply is leaving exchanges.
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It has been a tough year for Chinese stocks, with the CSI 300 down 13.44% in 2026. The Hang Seng has shed 11.87%, and Morgan Stanley doesn’t think the selling is done.
The bank has estimated how much further prices could fall, and which move could signal a bottom.
Earnings Keep Pulling the Floor Lower
The CSI 300 entered a bear market last week. In a Sunday note reported by Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley sees offshore shares falling another 10% to 15%. That would bring valuations down to their historical level of about 8 times forward earnings.
For mainland shares, the bank expects a similar de-rating to about 10-11 times. The CSI 300 trades at 11.6 times, the Hang Seng at 9.5 times.
CSI 300 and Hang Seng year-to-date performance. Source: Google Finance/BeInCrypto
Weaker earnings add to that pressure. Bloomberg data show 2026 profit forecasts for MSCI China members down more than 4% since the end of March. Reported results have missed estimates by 9% on average.
Weak spending and price wars drive the squeeze, as CATL’s profit miss showed. Stanley Tang of Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management favors Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese firms for better earnings.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
Beijing’s Buyers Hold the Key to the Timing
Despite weak profits, Beijing has kept stimulus measured, with growth on target. Officials have turned to state funds known as the national team to steady the market.
Morgan Stanley’s timeline rests on that buying. Markets have tended to bottom one to two months after high-profile national team purchases, the bank said. The pattern held when policymakers also pledged publicly to stabilize stocks.
Central Huijin, the lead state investor, had about $188 billion left last week, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated.
“This more proactive messaging and still ample dry powder, based on historical experience, suggests that stabilization of the A-share market could be more visible now, likely within another month or two, or so,” Morgan Stanley said.
The bank favors mainland shares partly for that support.
Past Rescues Show How the Clock Could Run
In early 2024, Central Huijin pledged more ETF buying after the CSI 300 hit a five-year low. The index rebounded from there.
In 2015, the market bottomed only a year after about 1.24 trillion yuan of state buying.
Bridgewater’s China arm sees third-quarter declines as mostly liquidity-driven, with valuations not high. Berenberg’s Ulrich Urbahn remains cautious, citing weak profitability.
“It is too early to conclude that the worst is over,” Urbahn added.
Hong Kong faces the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision, given its sensitivity to bond yields. Third-quarter results also keep arriving, with MSCI China on track for its second-worst miss in two years.
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The crypto market will welcome tokens worth more than $730.1 million in the final week of October 2026. Major projects, including Collector Crypt (CARDS), Sui (SUI), and Kamino (KMNO), will release significant new token supplies.
These unlocks could introduce market volatility and influence short-term price movements. So, here’s a breakdown of what to watch.
1. Collector Crypt (CARDS)
Unlock Date: October 29
Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 59.26 million CARDS
Released Supply: 617.47 million CARDS
Total Supply: 2 billion CARDS
Collector Crypt is a marketplace on the Solana (SOL) blockchain for tokenized trading cards. Users can buy, trade, and redeem graded physical cards that the platform keeps in storage vaults. CARDS is the platform’s native token.
On October 29, Collector Crypt will unlock 59.26 million CARDS. The tokens are valued at $17.57 million and account for 9.60% of the released supply.
CARDS Crypto Token Unlock in October. Source: Tokenomist
The team will receive most of the unlocked tokens: 32.50 million CARDS. The community will get 14.58 million tokens. In addition, advisors and seed investors will receive 7.01 million and 5.16 million CARDS, respectively.
2. Sui (SUI)
Unlock Date: November 1
Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 13.15 million SUI
Released Supply: 4.12 billion SUI
Total Supply: 10 billion SUI
Sui is a high-performance Layer-1 blockchain. It utilizes the Move programming language to enable scalable, secure, and efficient decentralized applications (dApps).
Moreover, the network focuses on parallel execution for high throughput, making it suitable for gaming, decentralized finance (DeFi), and Web3 ecosystems.
On November 1, Sui will unlock 13.15 million altcoins as part of its monthly schedule. This stack represents 0.32% of the released supply. Furthermore, it is worth approximately $12.11 million.
SUI Token Unlock in November. Source: Tokenomist
Of the unlocked supply, early contributors and the community reserve will get 7.08 million and 4 million SUI, respectively. Lastly, Mysten Labs Treasury will receive 2.07 million tokens.
3. Kamino (KMNO)
Unlock Date: October 30
Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 229.17 million KMNO
Released Supply: 8.40 billion KMNO
Total Supply: 10 billion KMNO
Kamino Finance is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol on the Solana blockchain that specializes in borrowing, lending, and liquidity provision.
On October 30, Kamino will unlock 229.17 million KMNO altcoins. The tokens are valued at approximately $9.69 million and represent 2.73% of the released supply.
KMNO Crypto Token Unlock in October. Source: Tokenomist
The team will distribute most of the unlocked tokens, 145.83 million KMNO, to key stakeholders and advisors. Additionally, Kamino will award 83.33 million tokens to core contributors.
In addition to these, other prominent unlocks investors can look out for in the final week of October include EigenCloud (EIGEN), Sahara AI (SAHARA), Sign (SIGN), and more, which will contribute to the total market-wide releases. Tokenomist has marked the Collector Crypt, Sui, and Kamino unlocks as pending verification, so these figures remain projections.

Dan Niles does not think the artificial intelligence (AI) market has peaked, crediting agentic AI for that view. Still, he has spent weeks advising investors to hold more cash and stay cautious.
His caution lands days before Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon report earnings. Chip stocks have already fallen faster than the market. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) lost 3.2% last week, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5%.
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Why Dan Niles Favors Cash and Caution but Won’t Call the Top
Agentic AI, Niles says, uses 10 to 100 times more tokens than inference. He compares the current repricing to the 1997 and 1998 internet drawdowns, which preceded a rally.
“In summary, because of the advent of Agentic, I do not believe this is THE TOP,” he said.
Still, Niles sees the market repricing 2 things. Funding is getting more expensive in both debt and equity markets, and growth at AI-native firms is slowing.
CoreWeave is his debt-market example. The company sold $1.25 billion of unsecured 2032 notes in June with a 9.625% coupon. Those notes have yielded around 15% this month, and CoreWeave stock had fallen 36% since the start of October as of last week.
CoreWeave rents computing power to Microsoft and Meta, so its funding strain sits inside Big Tech’s AI supply chain.
On growth, Niles says Anthropic’s quarterly revenue growth slowed from 145% in Q2 to 45% in Q3.
Data Center Pushback Hangs Over Big Tech’s Earnings Week
Beyond funding and growth, Niles flags a political risk. Both US parties seem to agree on data center moratoriums, he says, which could worsen after the midterms. He worries they could hurt cloud growth guidance for the December quarter.
Australia’s NextDC shows how fast that risk can reach a share price. Its stock fell 39.5% on October 21 after power delays tied to community opposition forced a guidance cut.
In the US, Amazon dropped plans for 4 data center buildings on a $427 million campus in Loudoun County, Virginia. Opposition blocked or delayed US projects worth $68 billion between April and June, according to Data Center Watch.
Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on October 28, hours after the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Amazon follows on October 29. Niles expects their stock moves to hinge on comments about capex, expenses, cash flow, and financing needs.
“I worry whether a datacenter moratorium causes an issue with cloud growth guidance for the December quarter despite very strong growth in the September quarter,” he added.
Others read the cycle differently. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expects the AI buildout to end in a crash, while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says the AI selloff is nearly over. This week’s financing commentary may show whose read holds up.
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Block CEO Jack Dorsey posted “there is no moat” on X and drew more than 3.5 million views. The phrase echoes a leaked 2023 Google memo, which warned that open-source AI would erode the lead of Google and OpenAI.
The term comes from investor Warren Buffett, who uses “moat” for a lasting edge that shields a company from rivals. Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor and Tesla CEO Elon Musk both responded, yet each pointed to a very different kind of protection.
Why Did Jack Dorsey Say There Is No Moat?
Dorsey did not tie the post to any product. However, it came shortly after he introduced Dessa, a voice AI model from a small research lab inside Block.
there is no moat
— jack (@jack) October 24, 2026
The team says it trained Dessa only on human conversation, with no text and no pretrained models. According to Block, a single Nvidia GB200 NVL72 rack was enough.
Dorsey called the model small enough to run on a MacBook. Block has given a small group of AI safety researchers early access before any wider release.
One user linked the “no moat” post to that launch. In their view, a payments company now builds AI that rivals the largest labs, so no lead lasts for long.
Jack Dorsey has made a similar case before. In February, he cut about 40% of Block’s staff and argued that AI tools and smaller teams enable a new way of working.
Is Bitcoin the Last Moat, or Is Strength Enough?
Saylor argued that Bitcoin itself is the moat Jack Dorsey says no longer exists. His reply fits a long-running pitch, as Strategy holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury. He has long called Bitcoin a shield for capital against inflation and weakening currencies.
bitcoin is the moat
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) October 25, 2026
Earlier in October, Saylor said AI spending weighed on Bitcoin, alongside trade policy and rising yields.
Musk took a different line and pointed to ancient Sparta, a Greek city that relied on its soldiers instead of walls.
“Sparta never had a moat,” Elon Musk on X
Musk has praised Bitcoin’s resilience before. He once said the network has no throat to choke.
Jack Dorsey himself has backed Bitcoin for years. In April, Block ran a $1 million Bitcoin giveaway through Cash App.
The debate shows how the AI race now reaches crypto. If software gets cheaper to copy, Saylor is betting that Bitcoin’s network size and fixed supply become the edge that lasts.

Bitcoin wallet phishing emails posing as an urgent Passport recall reached Foundation customers from the company’s own domains. The wallet maker blames compromised Cloudflare API keys, yet recipients say the messages also exposed their home addresses.
Foundation builds Passport, a Bitcoin-only hardware wallet. However, its explanation covers how the emails went out, not how attackers knew who owns the devices.
How Did a Fake Recall Reach Real Customers?
The emails arrived on Sunday under an urgent recall banner. They claimed a supplier had modified a display module and that attackers were draining funds from affected devices.
The message urged readers not to wait for a replacement. Instead, a link sent them to foundation.support, a fake site that mimicked Envoy, Foundation’s companion wallet app.
The page showed an empty wallet with a deposit button, apparently to lure victims into sending Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin wallet phishing lure plays on a real fear. Reports of tampered hardware wallets have spread throughout 2026, which makes a supply-chain warning look plausible.
Foundation responded early Monday on X. According to the company, attackers abused one or more compromised Cloudflare API keys, and it has since revoked every key.
The team says it has also taken down the malicious domain. Moreover, Foundation says funds on Passport are safe and the hardware itself is not compromised.
ANNOUNCEMENT: SPAM EMAILS HAVE BEEN SENT THAT APPEAR TO HAVE COME FROM OFFICIAL FOUNDATION DOMAINS.We have traced this back to one or more compromised API keys on Cloudflare, and have already revoked all API keys.The malicious domain in the spam email has been taken down.…
— FOUNDATION (@FoundationHQ) October 26, 2026
Bitcoin Wallet Phishing Leaves a Customer Data Question Open
Still, several users replied that stolen API keys cannot explain how attackers knew their names, phone numbers, and mailing addresses.
One user received the email from jobs@foundation.xyz, Foundation’s real domain. The user said it included their full name and the address tied to a wallet bought two years ago.
Got an email from jobs@foundation.xyz (their real domain) saying my 2-year-old wallet I got from them is compromised. It has my full name and address. @FoundationHQ is this legit? @zherbert @sethforprivacy @btcqna pic.twitter.com/YUBQYTGkdY
— blockdyor (@blockdyor) October 26, 2026
Back in 2022, Foundation said it self-hosts its support chats and email marketing tool to limit third-party risks.
In the same thread, the company added that it deletes customer data 60 days after an order ships.
Another user said two versions of the email circulated. Customers received messages with full order details, while former job applicants saw only their names.
So far, Foundation has not said whether its customer database was breached. The company says it will publish a full report as soon as possible.
Leaked delivery data often outlives the first scam. For example, Ledger buyers received fake letters by post after earlier customer data breaches.
As a result, this Bitcoin wallet phishing incident moves the threat from the inbox to the front door. Meanwhile, CertiK projects crypto wrench attacks could reach a record high in 2026.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has backed Moonshot AI’s decision to strip top-end hacking skills from its new Kimi K3.1 Pro model. In his view, limiting what AI can do beats limiting who may use it.
However, the safeguard comes at a measurable cost. Moonshot says the filtered model solved 81% of tasks on its internal exploit benchmark, while an unfiltered version solved 90.5%.
Why Vitalik Buterin Prefers AI Limits Over User Checks
Buterin shared his stance, arguing that discriminating against use cases is far less harmful than discriminating against users.
I am okay with Kimi 3.1 deliberately leaving out top-end offensive cyber capabilities from their training data.Discriminating against use cases is MUCH less bad than discriminating against users. And the world does need all the time it can get to prepare, harden, check old…
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) October 26, 2026
Moonshot, a Beijing-based AI startup, plans to release the model’s open weights by November 4. Anyone can then download it and run it on their own hardware.
For that reason, the company says it removed cyber-related data from its training corpus and reinforcement learning environments. General coding tasks stayed in.
According to Vitalik Buterin, AI-powered attacks will eventually hit at full force. Until then, developers need time to harden systems, check legacy code, and verify new software.
The threat is already visible. Earlier this year, Binance Research found that AI exploits smart contracts roughly twice as well as it detects flaws.
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What Happens if the First Wave of AI Risk Goes Badly
Buterin also warned about the alternative. If this first wave goes badly, he expects locked-down models, Know Your Customer (KYC) checks on everything, and intrusive surveillance.
In that scenario, AI access could depend on credentials and nationality. Some people would become second-, third-, or fourth-class users, he wrote.
Vitalik Buterin has long favored running open AI models on his own hardware, as his local AI laptop tests showed.
Still, he does not expect the filtering to hold forever. When a user asked whether other labs would build such capabilities anyway, he replied that they would.
In fact, by Moonshot’s own count, DeepSeek’s rival open model V4.1-Flash already scored 85.7% on the same benchmark.
For Vitalik Buterin, AI safety has therefore become a race for time rather than a permanent block. That race favors defenders who adopt his redundant crypto security safeguards before attackers catch up.

Voters on each side fear what the other party would do with Congress, a CNBC survey shows. For investors, the question is how a Democratic majority could reshape oil, AI, and policy risk.
Polymarket gives Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House and 65% for the Senate. A recent World Gold Council note maps four policy areas a Democratic Congress could influence, each with implications for gold, Bitcoin, and stocks.
Does Gridlock on Spending Help or Hurt Gold?
Spending is the first area. According to the WGC, a Democratic Congress could limit the White House’s ability to pass deficit-expanding bills. Edward Jones similarly expects gridlock to make large new fiscal initiatives less likely.
Gold could feel mixed effects. Smaller deficits could ease fiscal concerns and revive demand for Treasuries and the dollar, weighing on gold. However, pressure to reduce tariffs could cut government revenue and widen the deficit, potentially supporting the metal.
Stocks: Lower Treasury yields could support equities by reducing borrowing costs and increasing the present value of future earnings. Edward Jones data also shows the S&P 500 has generally risen after midterm elections since 1970, regardless of which party won.
Bitcoin (BTC) tends to move opposite the dollar, and Glassnode data shows that inverse correlation at its most negative it has recorded. A firmer dollar from smaller deficits would therefore weigh on BTC. However, that link has weakened at times.
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Could Congress Cool the Iran Trade?
The second area, war funding, ties the vote directly to oil. In the CNBC survey, 21% of Democrats worry a Republican Congress would continue military efforts in Iran. By contrast, 11% of Republicans worry Democrats would end them.
Trump recently ruled out imminent military action against Iran. The council argues a Democratic Congress could restrict war funding and push toward de-escalation.
For now, oil points the other way. Brent crude trades near $114, and higher energy costs have lifted inflation worries. Traders see about an 80% chance of a December Fed hike.
Gold would benefit from de-escalation, the council says, as cheaper oil eases inflation expectations, yields, and the dollar. The metal fell below $4,000 on Friday, its lowest since mid-July, and traded at $4,010.48 on Monday.
Stocks would gain if cheaper oil softens yields and inflation fears.
Bitcoin has swung on Iran headlines this month, with escalation news cutting it 2% to 5% intraday. A deal that weakens the dollar could help. BTC now trades at $79,894, down 1.2% in 24 hours.
Would AI Rules Hit Tech Stocks First?
AI policy is the third area. According to the council, a Democratic Congress could scale back federal support for AI or tighten its regulation.
In the CNBC survey, 19% of Democrats fear a Republican Congress would fail to regulate AI and data centers. Among Republicans, 6% fear Democrats would overregulate them.
Gold could gain from that slowdown as softer growth, lower yields, and a weaker dollar support it.
Stocks, especially tech, would take the most direct hit, the council suggests. Investors already doubt whether hyperscaler spending will pay off. Weaker tech shares could then dent household wealth and consumer spending.
Bitcoin faces a split effect. A weaker dollar would help, but a tech sell-off could drag BTC lower alongside equities.
What Happens if the White House Governs by Order?
The final area is executive power, which voters already worry about. In the CNBC survey, 44% of all voters fear Trump operating beyond his constitutional power, including 74% of Democrats. Among Republicans, 16% fear a Democratic Congress would impeach him.
The council expects blocked legislation to push the administration toward more executive orders and emergency powers. The court fights, and policy swings that follow could raise political risk premiums.
Gold usually benefits from that uncertainty, according to the council. It also expects the shift to strengthen central banks’ interest in diversifying reserves into gold.
Stocks could struggle as policy becomes less predictable, which tends to weigh on valuations.
Bitcoin carries its own executive-power risk. Much of today’s crypto rulebook comes from the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than Congress. A future commission can withdraw those rules.
By the council’s read, three of the four areas lean supportive of gold. For Bitcoin, the dollar is the common thread, while stocks hinge mostly on yields. Polymarket still gives Republicans an 8% chance of holding the House and 36% for the Senate.
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A Bloomberg Economics model shows Bank of England (BoE) officials are the most hawkish since early 2023. Markets now price a near-certain rate hike on Nov. 5.
The BoE has not tightened as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) did. It held in September on a 6-3 vote, so two members switching would flip the result.
Why Are Bank of England Officials Changing Their Tone?
Bloomberg Economics built BOESPEAK, a natural language processing model that scores the tone of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members. Scores above zero signal hawkish sentiment, meaning a preference for higher interest rates.
The index jumped after public appearances by MPC members, including at International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok.
Dan Hanson, chief UK economist at Bloomberg Economics, ties the shift to energy costs.
“The rise in the index is striking and has coincided with the ramp up in energy costs in recent months”
Dan Hanson, Bloomberg
🇬🇧 #BOE Officials Most Hawkish Since Inflation Was 10%, Model Shows – Bloomberghttps://t.co/D995rsVaa6 pic.twitter.com/m0zPxdd2qv
— Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 (@C_Barraud) October 26, 2026
Hanson expects hikes in November and February. However, he concedes the committee could simply be talking tough.
Governor Andrew Bailey holds a swing vote. He says prolonged high energy prices make a hike harder to avoid.
Deputies Dave Ramsden and Clare Lombardelli have echoed that warning as the Iran war continues.
How Far Behind the Fed and ECB Is the Bank of England?
The BoE kept rates at 3.75% in September, while the Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4%.
Bloomberg projects UK inflation above 4% by early next year, twice the BoE’s 2% target. Meanwhile, rising private-sector pay ahead of the 2027 wage talks may weaken the labor market’s ability to restrain prices.
However, the committee remains split. Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said on Oct. 15 that 2022 taught firms to absorb costs instead of raising prices. Doves Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra, who favor looser policy, urged caution.
A November hike would put the BoE on the same path as the Fed and ECB. Japan’s central bank has already moved, with its September rate hike lifting the rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. Investors expect at least four hikes by July, a path Chief Economist Huw Pill has questioned.

Nearly 92% of stocks in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) now trade below their 50-day moving average. The share last ran this high in late July, just before miners posted a record month.
The reading lands days before Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with traders still pricing a possible rate hike this year.
How Gold Miners Went From August Leaders to Oversold in 21 Sessions
SentimenTrader data shows the share of GDX stocks above their 50-day average dropped from over 90% to 8% in 21 sessions.
Gold Miners ETF Breadth. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/SentimenTrader
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About 90% also trade below their 200-day average, the highest share in 3 months, per The Kobeissi Letter.
Gold has fallen less sharply, trading at $3,983.91, down 3.19% from a month ago. The metal slipped below $4,000 on Friday for the first time since July.
Operating leverage amplified miners’ gains over the summer. The MSCI global gold miners index jumped 43% in August, while gold gained about 13%.
Miners also trade as stocks, so they caught last week’s equity selloff. Newmont fell 3.7% in Australia on Friday as the ASX mining sector dropped 3.74%, Capital Brief reported.
What Past Washouts Signal for Gold Miners Heading Into the Fed
Earlier readings this extreme ended in sharp rebounds. The Kobeissi Letter points to similar setups in March 2024 and December 2024. GDX rallied 21.5% and 15.4%, respectively, over the following month.
The late July washout followed the same path. However, that rally had a clear trigger in the US Treasury’s buyback plan.
Margins also leave miners room to recover. Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner, reported third-quarter all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,454 per ounce. Gold trades about $2,530 above that level.
Interest rates still pose a risk, with traders pricing a 75.4% chance of a December hike, per CME FedWatch. Higher rates raise the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.
Wednesday’s decision will offer the first test of whether this washout repeats the July script.
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Japan’s policy shift appears to be making the yen less likely to slump when global yields climb, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank now sees the currency as an effective protection against an artificial intelligence (AI) market shock.
The note landed after a tech selloff pulled Japan’s Nikkei 225 well below its record. Chip and AI-linked shares led last week’s losses in Tokyo.
Tokyo Takes the AI Hit as the Yen Finds Buyers
The index closed at 62,693.16 on October 23, Nikkei data show. That leaves it about 14% below its record close of 73,007.
On October 22, the Nikkei fell 2.65% from the previous close to its lowest finish since July 30. The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) lost 1.14% that day. Overall, the index has lost 5.2% in the past month.
Nikkei 225 Daily Chart Showing the October AI Selloff. Source: Google Finance
The yen rose 0.9% against the dollar on October 22 as Treasury yields dropped, Bloomberg reported. On October 23, it touched its strongest level in more than a month.
“The yen now looks like a more attractive hedge for procyclical portfolios than it has been over recent years, despite the global backdrop still arguing for further JPY weakness,” the strategists wrote.
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Why Goldman Says the Yen Stings Less to Hold
Goldman’s strategists argue the AI boom has left US stocks and the dollar exposed if growth weakens. Stocks and bond yields falling together is the setup Goldman says has historically favored the yen.
The bank ties the yen’s smaller reaction to rising yields to Japan’s domestic policy settings. Over a longer horizon, the strategists named one trade.
“Short USD/JPY should be the most effective hedge against general growth wobbles or, specifically, a broad AI shock,” they said.
In the near term, however, Goldman still sees the global backdrop favoring further yen weakness. It prefers selling the euro against the yen for now.
December rate decisions will test the bank’s view. In a Bloomberg survey, 83% of economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to hike from 1.25% that month. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also expected to hike in December.
Matching quarter-point moves would leave the US-Japan rate gap little changed. The yen’s response to rising US yields would then show whether its weakness has truly eased.
For investors heavy in US tech, this week’s Fed and BOJ decisions offer an early test of that hedge.
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CoreWeave (CRWV) shares have fallen more than a third in October as investors balk at roughly $52 billion of debt taken on for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, even though revenue more than doubled last quarter.
The Nvidia-backed company did not start in AI. It was founded in 2017 as Atlantic Crypto, mining Ethereum (ETH) on graphics processing units (GPUs), and renamed itself CoreWeave in 2019 after repurposing that hardware to rent out computing power.
Why Are Bond Investors Fleeing a Revenue Boom?
CoreWeave booked about $2.5 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 112% year over year. Debt markets, however, are charging far more for the borrowing. Its unsecured bonds yield about 15%.
Meanwhile, the spread on its credit default swaps, contracts that insure against default, has passed 11%.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said last week that CoreWeave needs no backstop from the chipmaker, and he addressed its financing costs directly.
“Their cost of capital is actually decreasing.”
He spoke on Oct. 15, a day after CoreWeave stock sank 15%, its steepest one-day fall since February.
What Happens to the AI Trade if CoreWeave Cannot Refinance?
Nvidia is entangled on three fronts. It supplies the chips, owns about 9% of CoreWeave, and has committed to buy up to $6.3 billion of its capacity if no other customer does.
The CRWV price is down nearly 40% in the past month. Source: Trading View
The crypto links also persist. CoreWeave has leased space from Core Scientific (CORZ), a bitcoin miner shifting toward AI hosting, whose shareholders blocked a $9 billion CoreWeave takeover in October 2025.
Neoclouds, the GPU-rental providers built around Nvidia chips, are under strain as a group. Nebius and IREN have each fallen at least 30% this month, alongside CoreWeave, per CNBC.
A weak CoreWeave refinancing could therefore reset borrowing costs for every debt-funded GPU buildout, including miners such as Core Scientific that are converting to AI.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 on Monday. Analyst Benjamin Cowen says two of nine steps on his bearish 2026 roadmap are now done.
The checked boxes cover a weekly close below $83,000 and a fakeout on October 25, meaning a breakout that reversed. The next two steps, however, depend on scheduled events this week, not price action.
Which Macro Dominoes Come Next?
His path assumes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not raise rates at its October 28 decision. The Fed publishes it at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, according to its calendar.
I will follow this view until proven wrong (back above $83k)✅-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again) ✅-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25) -Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28) -PCE comes in hot (Oct 29) -Oil spikes over the Iran war (~$120) -Long end goes up (10Y back to 5.3%)… https://t.co/jLHzwBwIUu
— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) October 26, 2026
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) then publishes the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on October 29. Cowen’s path calls for a hot reading from that inflation gauge.
Oil’s latest surge is already close, with Brent crude settling at $116.72 on Friday. Cowen’s roadmap calls for roughly $120 over the Iran war.
The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.10% on October 15, according to the St. Louis Fed’s FRED database. Cowen’s path calls for a return to 5.3%.
Falling stocks, a fourth-quarter slide in Bitcoin, and lower long-dated yields before year-end complete the sequence. Cowen cites a recurring drop in the final quarter of US midterm election years.
What Would Void Cowen’s Path?
Cowen says the roadmap becomes void if Bitcoin regains $83,000 and holds it. He ticked off the first two steps in an updated post on X on Monday.
“I will follow this view until proven wrong (back above $83k)”
He had flagged the October 25 close in an earlier $83,000 warning. Bitcoin also slipped under $80,000 on Saturday, when about $191 million in long positions were liquidated.
Bitcoin is already below $80,000 with the Fed and PCE steps still ahead. Those two events could show whether Bitcoin’s price action follows rates and oil rather than crypto-specific demand.

Meta fell 7% as AI spending outran its cash flow, and MetLife’s Drew Matus says investors punish spending cuts too.
Meta beat revenue estimates, with sales up 26%. Yet third-quarter capital expenditure (capex) of $34.9 billion topped operating cash flow, and shares fell on Oct. 22.
What Do Investors Actually Want From AI Spending?
Four more tech giants face the same test after Meta’s selloff. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Intel on Thursday.
Bloomberg’s hosts said the four make up about 15% of the Nasdaq 100, which has fallen roughly 7% this month.
Matus said firms that cut capex get punished. Firms that raise it get the same treatment.
“I don’t actually really know what people want from these people.”
Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, speaking on Bloomberg
Investors want proof that AI supports long-term growth, he said, yet debates over jobs and profits will persist.
Meta also announced a new class of nonvoting Class C stock. Scotiabank noted that management indicated an equity raise may be necessary.
Alphabet fell about 4% after hours in July when it lifted capex guidance. BeInCrypto’s filing review found AI capex draining cash at Microsoft and Amazon.
Can Big Tech Spend as Much as It Promises?
Matus doubted that headline budgets will turn into spending this year, since firms must find workers, equipment and land first.
However, he said industries most exposed to AI are hiring more people, not fewer.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) meets Oct. 27 and 28 in a packed Fed week. Its decision lands Wednesday afternoon, hours before Microsoft and Alphabet are due to report.
The Fed raised rates in September to a 3.75% to 4% range. Traders scaled back October hike bets after Chair Kevin Warsh said hotter inflation had not changed his view.
Matus expects Warsh to skip a move and revisit policy in December.
Matus argues AI drives capex, equity gains and consumer spending at once. He called that economic concentration more worrying than the stock market’s.
One weak outlook from a single company could therefore test that whole chain.