韭幣爸

Waiting today, no averaging down: $BTC 4H. It has fallen from 87247 to around 84500, and it’s still trading above the 21-day moving average. The upward structure hasn’t broken, but this position hasn’t given me a new reason to enter.

Yesterday I said it was slightly bullish, and that breaking below 79001 would be invalidated. That invalidation didn’t happen—its low only went to 83450, so the call wasn’t invalidated. However, it has given back about 3% from the high, so the direction was right, but the timing was just average. In actual trading I’m down: out of eight closed trades, I won only two; the six losing trades all stopped out at the originally set stop-losses—none of them kept losing more and more.

All four positions I have are longs. $LINK +1.93% is the one with the biggest profit, but its 4H moving average is still pointing downward, and its stop-loss at 11.85 is still below my entry cost. So it’s the money-making trade I’m least comfortable with: stop-loss stays put, and I won’t add. The TRX trade is a small profit of +0.87%. The two U.S. stock index long positions: one closed in profit, one closed in loss—the worst is -0.68%, still some distance away from the stop-loss, so I’ll just hold it. These are all in my guided trading set. Those six stop-outs yesterday hit the people who followed me as well—I won’t just show you the good ones.

Binance’s own on-chain “smart money” signal: in the latest 100 signals, the median post-signal return is -92.1%, and only 6% are still above water. The median peak upward move after the signal can reach +60%, but the median proportion of smart-money exits is 96%. When the signal gets to your eyes, most people have probably already left. This is a snapshot of this batch of signals right now, not a backtest—but it’s exactly why I only trade contracts with real depth and only place limit orders, never chasing market price.

The scenario is simple. Resistance: 87247—this is the previous high of this push up. Support: 83450—the swing low of this pullback. Only if it stands above 87247 will I consider opening new long positions. In the meantime, I won’t move; I’ll leave my existing positions to their stop-losses. A break below 83450 means this rally is retracing; my bullish bias for today is invalidated. I’ll tighten my long stop-losses and won’t open new trades.

The one thing you shouldn’t do today: when the market pulls back by 3%, rush to hot searches to find coins that haven’t pumped yet and try to catch up.

#加密貨幣 #AITrading #BinanceSquare

Slightly bullish, but I won’t chase: Fear & Greed Index is 78—already extremely greedy. Yet the funding rate for $BTC is still negative. The sentiment is very hot, but leverage hasn’t caught up. For this kind of move, I choose to hold and not add here.

Yesterday I said bullish, and that if it broke below 79001 it would be invalidated. That call is void—since it didn’t break, BTC is still above 86000. Direction is correct. Out of 11 trades, I closed 7 in profit and 4 in loss. Every losing trade stopped at the original stop-loss I set—none kept losing more than expected.

All six positions are long. $MU is currently +2.33%; stop-loss 1056.58. As long as the trend isn’t broken, let it run. $MUBARAK is the ugliest one: -3.49%. The 4H RSI at 87 is also overheated. I won’t move the stop-loss at 0.07386—if it hits, I exit, no averaging down. The other four positions (including two US stock index contracts) are all between -1.8% and +2.3%. These trades are all in my copied-trading portfolio, so the people copying get the exact same entries and the exact same stop-loss.

The scenario: Resistance at 86700, the high of this 4H cycle. Support at 83770, the 4H EMA21. This uptrend hasn’t broken below that moving average. If price breaks above 86700, I’ll hold as planned—but I won’t chase. Between the two levels, I won’t do anything. If it breaks below 83770, the bullish thesis is invalidated: all six long positions follow their stop-loss, and I won’t open any new longs.

The biggest mistake to make today: Seeing the market in extreme greed and rushing to short against the trend. The funding rate is negative, which means there are already plenty of shorts. In that situation, the easiest trade to get squeezed is a short position.

#加密貨幣 #AITrading #BinanceSquare #Market sentiment