白手套起家

$ETH suddenly dragged to around $2620—this wave is really intense!

Yesterday it was still consolidating around 2450, and today it directly surged above 2600. The single-day gain briefly exceeded 7%, and volume also expanded noticeably.

But here you can’t focus only on the upside.

ETH has already climbed back above 2600. At this spot, short-term sentiment is clearly heating up. If you chase the bullish candle straight up, the risk-reward ratio isn’t as comfortable as it was when the move first started.

My approach is still pretty simple:

If you already have positions from the low area, you can keep holding to see how strong it remains. If you’re just about to enter, I wouldn’t recommend chasing directly just because you see a big green candle—waiting for a pullback confirmation after the spike is usually more comfortable.

If 2600 keeps getting strong support repeatedly—pullbacks don’t break it, and volume continues to pick up—then the bulls still have room to probe higher.

But if it pushes through 2600 and then shows a clear volume surge followed by stalled price action, or even drops back below 2600, then you should watch out for a profit-taking pullback. Chasing long hard at high levels can easily lead to getting stuck in losses.

At this point, both bulls and bears are fighting for control. What really matters isn’t how much ETH has risen, but whether the 2600 level can hold steady.

$AKE This move has really ignited market sentiment.

Right now, AKE is consolidating around $0.05. In the past 24 hours, the gain at one point exceeded 150%, and it even pushed up to around $0.06 at the peak. The 24-hour trading volume has already surpassed $1 billion. In just a few days, it has been pulled from around $0.02 up to where it is now—both the capital inflow and volatility have clearly expanded.

More importantly, look at the contract data. The share of AKE contract trading is very high, and open interest is increasing rapidly. Both long and short sides are now focusing on this run. After the price keeps rising in a streak, the chasing-long capital becomes increasingly concentrated, so naturally the volatility at higher levels will become stronger as well.

This kind of chart can’t be simply seen as “it’s up so much, so you should short.” In a strong trend, shorts can easily get squeezed out in a continuous squeeze. If you really want to participate, whether the pullback at lower levels can hold and be absorbed matters more than chasing after a big bullish candle. For positions already opened at higher levels, you need to guard against a quick sell-off/fast profit-taking after a spike.

Right now, AKE is a classic example of a strong small-cap coin: go long on dips, and be cautious/short at higher levels. Rhythm matters more than direction.

$ZEC has surged again—seriously, it’s not giving the shorts any breathing room.

Right now, the price is hovering around $1,550. It briefly pushed up to $1,584, setting a fresh high for this phase. In the past 24 hours, it’s up more than 7%, and over the past 7 days, the gain is already above 34%. Pulling it from around $1,000 to where it is now—this kind of momentum isn’t just a normal rebound.

What’s most uncomfortable now is for those who are chasing the upside returns and going short or trying to short. Every time the price dips back, it quickly gets reclaimed. When shorts close out, it actually provides liquidity that keeps feeding the rally. The chart has already formed a very clear bullish structure.

On the fundamentals, expectations for the NU7 upgrade continue to build momentum. The community previously voted overwhelmingly to keep a Bitcoin-style halving mechanism, and after the upgrade, block time will be significantly shorter. On top of that, ZEC-related ETFs continue to attract capital, and market attention toward the privacy sector has clearly increased.

That said, above $1,550 is a high-volatility zone. Chasing longs from here doesn’t offer the same risk/reward as it did at earlier lower levels. If you want to go long, it’s better to wait for a pullback and confirmation. If you already have a position, don’t let a sudden spike drag you into chasing. As for the shorts, trying to force the resistance against this trend—honestly, it’s very easy to get dealt with again.

The Bank of Japan hikes rates by 25 basis points, bringing interest rates to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years. In theory, news like this shouldn’t be friendly to risk assets—but $SOL instead gave the market a lesson.

Now SOL is hovering around $113, up more than 12% over the past 24 hours. Yesterday it surged from near $101 all the way to $114, and trading volume has also noticeably increased. After the rate hike landed, there wasn’t a sustained sell-off, suggesting this piece of bearish news was largely priced in by the market ahead of time.

Looking at the chart, SOL’s recent low was around $96 a few days ago. It then regained the $100 level, and now it’s directly testing $114. In the short term, it has been rallying continuously. Around the $113–$114 area, there’s already clear selling pressure. Chasing longs from the current price means the risk-reward is no longer as comfortable as it was at lower levels.

In terms of trading rhythm, those who already picked up positions at lower prices can continue to watch for strong performance. If you haven’t gotten in, don’t feel compelled to chase just because there’s a big bullish candle. Going forward, the key is to see whether pullbacks can hold the ~$110 area. If it holds, it indicates the bulls still have momentum to keep pushing higher. But if it spikes up and then sells off on heavier volume back below $110, you should be cautious about a wave of profit-taking—don’t let high-priced longs turn into bags.

$BTC suddenly surged 5%. This time, the bears were dealt a beating.

BTC on the short term ripped from around 76,000 up to above 78,000. A 5% jump directly pulled market sentiment back.

Earlier, the clear-cut bill vote failed, and the rate hike has already been implemented. There have been bearish catalysts one after another, yet BTC simply didn’t keep falling. Instead, it repeatedly got bids near 75,000. After the shorts slowly entered, it pushed upward with force.

The biggest risk in this kind of tape is chasing the rally to short. Price has already reclaimed above 77,000. The short-term rhythm is clearly strong—if you’re holding shorts, consider trimming them to avoid letting open profits turn into losses.

Next, the key is whether the 78,000 level can hold. A breakout with continued acceptance, and then going long along the strong momentum, will feel much more comfortable. If it spikes higher and shows obvious signs of being pressured, wait for a pullback and confirmation—don’t force a chase at the mid-range.

When there’s support at lower levels, follow the rhythm. When you encounter resistance at higher levels, consider shorting again. Don’t let a single big bullish candle carry you away emotionally.

$SOL rebounded from $96 to $106—are the shorts starting to panic again?

$SOL has now reclaimed the $106 area, with a roughly 6% gain over the past 24 hours. A few days ago, the clear bill vote failed, and SOL briefly dropped to $96—unexpectedly, it’s already pulled back up this quickly.

This rebound suggests that there really is demand being picked up around the $96 level, and market sentiment isn’t as fragile as people might think. However, with the move from $96 to $106 already representing more than a 10% rebound, chasing higher in the short term still needs caution.

Next, the key is whether price can hold above the $106 area. If there’s a breakout with increasing volume and sustained buying, the market could have room to continue testing higher; if it spikes and then the bid can’t keep up, the $106 area may instead become short-term resistance, and chasing longs could easily get trapped.

My thinking is fairly straightforward: first look for acceptance when rebounding from lower levels; when hitting resistance at higher levels, consider short opportunities. Don’t blindly chase longs just because of one big bullish candle, and don’t rush into shorting just because price has already run up.

For this SOL move—has it truly restarted, or is it another rally that quickly fades?

Rate-hike expectations have been digested—why is $BTC still so stubborn?

BTC is currently around $77,400, with an intraday low dipping to $76,290, before bouncing back above $77,000.

This Fed rate hike of 25 basis points has already been implemented, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4%, yet BTC hasn’t seen sustained selloff—suggesting this bearish factor has largely been priced in by the market in advance.

In terms of trading, I’ll watch two levels:

Around $76,000 is the spot that short-term longs need to defend. If it pulls back to this area, it may hold and stabilize—then you can consider scaling into longs. If it breaks down and the subsequent rebound can’t reclaim the level, then longs should retreat first—don’t stubbornly hold on.

On the upside, first look at $78,000. After a break and a firm hold, then watch around $79,500. If it spikes higher with clear volume but can’t hold, be on guard for a pullback—shorting at the high is more comfortable than chasing longs.

In this kind of market, the biggest change is: the rate hike has already landed, but BTC hasn’t given the shorts the downside room they want.

I saw this event too late

$SOL Can we go short now?

SOL has now returned above $100. Current price is around $101. It rebounded from near $96—this rebound isn’t weak, but don’t see one rebound candle and rush to go long.

From a short-term trading rhythm perspective, this is more suitable for waiting for rebound confirmation.

If SOL continues to push higher, but keeps failing to break through the prior resistance and volume also starts to lag, then the opportunity for shorts at this position will reappear. A move up followed by a pullback is a more comfortable shorting rhythm.

If the resistance above is effectively broken and, after breaking, price can hold steady, then don’t rush to short—avoid getting stopped out by a sudden spike immediately after opening a short.

On the other hand, if SOL falls back below $100 again and the rebound can’t reclaim it, the short setup will become much clearer. If you already have short positions, you can decide whether to keep holding based on the rebound strength; if you’re considering chasing shorts, try to wait for confirmation—don’t jump in just because you see one bearish candle.

Right now, the most awkward part for SOL is: above $100 there can still be rebounds, but the resistance zone hasn’t been fully broken. Chasing longs and chasing shorts can both easily get chopped up.

Americans have gone crazy—why are they pumping $ZEC so high?

$ZEC can I go short now?

$ZEC surged to $1513 today, then started to pull back, now around $1480. The previous two days it was around $1240. Yesterday’s high was $1492. Today it tried again to push to $1513. The two consecutive days of rallies have made the gains extremely stretched.

At this kind of level, chasing longs is quite uncomfortable. If you already hold long positions from a low level, you can consider gradually selling to lock in profits. If you still want to go long, it’s not suitable to chase a high like $1513—wait for a pullback, and then when buy orders reappear, consider taking it back.

For shorts, it’s not as simple as shorting the moment price starts to drop. Right now, the price is only pulling back from a high; the downtrend hasn’t fully turned yet. Going short with a heavy position here could easily get pushed back up.

A more comfortable trading rhythm is to wait for a rebound. If the rebound keeps getting weaker—if the price can’t get back above the high and keeps failing—then the shorts can start testing gradually. On the other hand, if after the pullback the buy-side quickly returns and it once again attacks the previous high, then don’t try to fight it head-on.

With ZEC’s volatility, the buy point is to wait for a pullback, the sell point is to wait for a push higher, and for shorts, consider entries only when rebounds at the high lack momentum.

$LSK current price 0.4861, but the order book “taste” is starting to feel off.

There are clearly heavy sell orders around 0.50 overhead, yet the buy side below looks relatively thin. The funding rate has already turned negative, but the contract open interest is still increasing. In simple terms: the shorts are getting more crowded, but the spot price isn’t weakening noticeably along with it.

Looking at the recent three days of on-chain large transfers: the flow toward exchanges is net outflow, and it’s true that funds in the market are being withdrawn. By itself, this item can’t directly define it as a whale accumulating, but combined with the funding rate and changes in open interest, the long-vs-short battle for LSK is clearly intensifying right now.

My overall thinking is still bullish. In the 0.482—0.486 range, we should重点关注 whether there’s good support/absorption. Around 0.472 can be treated as the defensive level for this thesis. First watch the 0.50 psychological integer area above: if it can build volume and hold, then we can look further toward 0.508 and around 0.525.

If 0.50 is genuinely broken through, with the shorts crowded, the chart could see a relatively quick squeeze/covering wave. Conversely, if 0.472 breaks down, the prior long-side thesis would need to be reassessed.

Don’t over-commit to the contract position. With an order book like LSK’s, when the direction is right, profits run fast; when it’s wrong, it cuts just as fast.

Someone actually told me “empty, empty, empty”? Empty your egg.

Over the past two days, the market has swallowed two bearish blows in a row: the Clarity Act’s procedural vote failed 49 to 50, and then the Fed genuinely hiked rates by 25 basis points. In theory, with news like this thrown down, $BTC and $ETH should have instantly gone cold. But after the market digested the news, prices didn’t show sustained liquidation.

BTC is currently ranging around $76,000, while ETH is repeatedly fighting for control around $2,400. The Clarity Act failing does indeed add regulatory uncertainty, but it hasn’t changed the market structure of BTC or ETH themselves. The rate hike has also already landed—the real information that needed to be digested is already out in the open.

At times like this, chasing the downside to short based on bad news makes the risk-reward ratio start to feel awkward. There’s support and absorption at lower levels, while funds continue to probe from above. For the short term to keep selling off, you need new catalysts; but to the upside, once sentiment repairs, upside momentum could emerge.

So my thinking still leans bullish overall: go long at lower levels, short at higher levels. Don’t start mindlessly chasing shorts just because you see a single bearish candle. With BTC and ETH at positions like these, it’s at least easier to tell whether the market has buyers stepping in compared with before the news was released.

$ONE ONE suddenly erupted, jumping 52.35% in just 24 hours—this long bullish candle is really quite brutal.

Looking back at the earlier candlesticks, there was a prolonged, steady downtrend with persistent selling pressure, hitting a low of 0.000586, which already falls into a deep oversold zone. Today, funds suddenly moved in—trading volume clearly expanded, and the price was pulled up directly.

The historical high reached 0.0485, and judging by the upside potential alone, it’s indeed extremely exaggerated. But don’t see the surge and start chasing. The long-term downtrend has not yet been fully reversed. This move looks more like fund-driven competition after an oversold condition. Whether it can continue into a true trending market still depends on whether subsequent volume and price action can stay consistent.

The most likely scenario for this kind of coin is: fast pumps from low levels, and also fast dumps from higher levels. If you already hold it at low prices, pay attention to protecting your profits. If you haven’t gotten in yet, don’t rush in just because it’s up 52% in a single day—chasing right after a big bullish candle. If volatility increases even slightly, it becomes easy to get rounded up and harvested back down.

$ETH Now it really can grind; it's hovering around $2,426.83, up 1.47% intraday. It looks like it's rising, but the momentum isn't really strong. Still, there are signs of activity in the fund flows: net inflow reaches $7.204 billion, which suggests that traders inside the market haven't fully pulled out. Big money seems more like it's waiting for a direction.

The level at $2,429.99 is right there. Whether ETH can truly break out into a bullish move depends on whether this area can gain volume and hold steady. If there’s a pullback, the $2,390 area is also an important short-term support/absorption zone. Below that, $2,350 is the spot that bulls need to defend.

$ZEC is a completely different story—straight up to $1,358.99, with a single-day gain of 8.99%. Trading volume hits $2.906 billion. This kind of momentum is clearly stronger than ETH: price and volume are moving together, and short-sellers' pressure will keep building. If you’re waiting for a pullback, keep an eye on whether there’s support around $1,310. In a strong trend, the worst thing is waiting just for the retracement, and then the price doesn’t give you any chance.

$AKE , on the other hand, is really miserable. Around $0.01929, nearly 30% of its value evaporated in a day. Net outflow is $26.8195 million, and the capital retreat is very obvious. In the short term, if it rebounds to around $0.0225 but the volume can’t keep up, the bears may take control again. Around $0.0240 is an important resistance level in this weak structure. Below that, we’ll keep watching how it holds near the previous lows.

Brothers, beware of scams in the crypto market! $ZEC ！

I really got educated by this stuff.

Before, I saw ZEC rally all the way up to around 1300. My first thought was: it’s up three times—so it should be time to drop, right? So I blindly went short. Turns out the market gave me a lesson.

Now ZEC is surging again to around $1284—up more than 14% in 24 hours. It’s been pulled from around $800 all the way to 1300. The shorts are really struggling. Open interest in the contracts is already close to $2.76 billion, and the volatility is getting crazier.

The most common mistake is seeing a coin that’s already risen a lot and assuming it’s going to fall right away.

But ZEC is not playing that game. After Grayscale’s Zcash spot ETF was listed, institutional money has kept flowing in. On top of that, the cascade of liquidation from short squeezes pushes funds layer by layer upward—so the price naturally gets pulled harder and harder.

I’m a living example from the other side: I put in a short on the short term, didn’t set the stop-loss properly, thinking I’d wait for a pullback and then leave. But it kept pushing higher all the way.

In this kind of market, going stubbornly short is really likely to become fuel. If you truly want to short, consider it only after clear signs of weakening appear at the highs. And if it pulls back to lower levels, going long with the trend is at least more comfortable than hard-shorting a ZEC that’s just been pumping violently.

After the rate hike is implemented, $BTC , gold, and oil begin to move in three completely different market patterns.

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this time, bringing the rate to 3.75%–4.00%, while also signaling that further hikes are still possible.

BTC is currently hovering around $76,000. It once surged to above $82,000 in early September, but has now pulled back noticeably. With higher interest rates and a decline in risk appetite, BTC still faces considerable short-term pressure. Whether the $75,000 area can hold is worth close watching.

Gold is also being pressured by interest rates and the US dollar. It is currently trading sideways around $4,200, but central bank gold purchases and geopolitical developments still provide support, making the battle between bulls and bears especially clear.

Oil, however, follows a different logic. Brent crude is still around $108. Supply disruptions and the situation in the Middle East keep oil prices supported.

The three markets are facing different drivers right now: BTC is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, gold by real interest rates, and oil by supply and geopolitical risk. If BTC continues to face pressure in the short term, it is more important to look for support and potential absorption at lower levels than to chase a rally from higher prices.

Damn it, $ZEC —why pull it up so high? The Air Force is going to suffer again.

Today, most of the mainstream coins are still under pressure, yet ZEC stubbornly pushed all the way to around $1,180. In 24 hours it surged more than 3% at one point, and the intraday high was close to $1,190.

This price action really doesn’t give the Air Force any face.

Earlier, ZEC already went through a round of wild pumping: on September 14, it surged more than 9% in a single day, then quickly dropped. Yesterday it even fell to around $1,080, but today it has pulled back above $1,100 again.

At this kind of level, chasing longs makes me even more cautious. The short-term has been experiencing wildly intense swings for days—don’t go all-in on shorts just because it’s going up. Wait for a clear rejection when it spikes, consider shorting then, and manage your position size well so ZEC doesn’t send the Air Force in again.

After all, this thing has really been specifically made to treat people who don’t know better.

Tonight is another storm—can $BTC hold up?

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will release its latest interest rate decision, followed by a Powell press conference.

BTC is currently trading in a range around $75,000–$77,000. After just going through a round of pullback, the market’s sentiment is already quite sensitive. After tonight’s rate result comes out, what may truly trigger sharp volatility is likely what Powell says about the pace of future rate cuts and inflation.

In this kind of market, the biggest fear is chasing price or selling in panic. If there is buy support at lower levels, you could consider going long; if a rebound at higher levels runs into sell pressure, you could consider going short. If you already hold positions, trimming exposure and reducing leverage will feel much more comfortable.

After 2:00 a.m., BTC will most likely start testing the patience of both long and short sides again.

$XRP This drop is a bit harsh.

Today it even bounced back toward the $1.28 area. But the rebound that it took some effort to work out earlier has basically been pushed back by market sentiment again. The CLARITY Act voting couldn’t get through, and with the entire crypto market pulling back in sync, XRP also couldn’t hold up.

At this level, I think it’s more important to see whether it can stabilize around $1.28 than to chase the decline.

In the short term, if we see signs of a stop in the selling here and trading volume expands again, then the logic of going long from the lows would return. If $1.28 keeps getting broken, the bears may continue to push lower, and hard-holding longs could mean catching the price somewhere in the middle of the slope.

XRP’s volatility is always relatively high. If it rose fast before, then during a pullback it won’t be polite either. Right now it’s better to focus on price and volume changes—don’t get carried away just because you see a single big bearish candle.