Herman_Z

BTC Market Analysis - (March 6)

Overall Market Trend
1. Mid-term Trend (12H-Daily):

• The mid-term moving average system is in a bearish arrangement, indicating that the overall market trend is currently bearish.

• The K-line high has reached the upper edge of the contracting triangle area, and the space and probability for continued price increase are small, so we must be alert to the risk of short-term pullbacks after a spike.

2. Short-term Trend (4H):

• The price is within a bearish arranged moving average system, but the K-line has not yet shown obvious signs of exhaustion.

• There is a noticeable divergence between bulls and bears, and combined with the sideways movement before the previous market decline, there is a certain probability of a pullback at the lower edge of this area, but excessive speculation is not recommended.

3. Ultra-short-term Trend (1H and below):

• After experiencing sharp rises and falls, the small-scale moving average system is relatively chaotic, but support is gradually forming.

• The price is in the mid to later stages of the contracting triangle, and the amplitude of rise and fall will gradually narrow until a new range structure is formed.

Operational Strategy

1. Large-scale (12H-Daily):

• Being in the intraday short-term high point area, it is recommended to focus on selling high to reduce the risk of chasing long positions.

2. Small-scale (1H and below):

• The price is at the back end of the overall triangular shape, and the amplitude of rise and fall will gradually moderate until a change occurs.

Key Points

1. Short-term Support Levels:

• First Support Level: 88340-86959 (quick in and out recommended).

• Second Support Level: 84910-83982 (consider placing orders).

2. Short-term Resistance Levels:

• Shape Resistance Level: 93350-94910.

• If the price first spikes to this area and above, be alert for bull traps and temporarily set aside breakout buying points.

Summary

• Overall trend is bearish, large-scale is at a high point area, with a short-term risk of pullbacks after spikes.

• Small-scale movements are chaotic but supported, with narrowing amplitude of rise and fall, waiting for a change.

• Operationally, it is recommended to focus on selling high, pay attention to key support and resistance levels, and avoid blindly chasing long positions.

Daily Market Interpretation - BTC 02/28

BTC daily chart shows 6 consecutive bearish days, the major decline has been released, and continuing to be bearish is unwise. The smaller timeframe has not yet bottomed, and further observation is needed for 1-2 days.

Short-term Trends

• Rebound Expectation: After the price entered the second support level without breaking down, a rebound occurred. The negative divergence on the 4-hour and 12-hour levels is significant, indicating an upward expectation.

• 1 Hour and Below: After a continuous decline, the bearish structure on the smaller timeframe is evident, but the current trend is stabilizing, allowing for short-term quick in-and-out operations.

Key Levels

• Aggressive Entry Range: 80300-79794

Stop Loss: 79500 (1-hour candlestick body)

Take Profit Reference: 81520/82777

• Short-term Support: 78555-77910 (quick in-and-out)

• Medium-Short Term Resistance: 83514-85315

Medium-term Operations:

• Wait for a bullish structure to appear on the 1-hour and below level before combining with the 'Lifeline Strategy Ma30 Moving Average' for operations.

Macroeconomic Outlook

• In 1-2 weeks: The price is likely to return above 81,000.

• In 2-4 weeks: The price may reverse to the 88,900-92,000 range.

• Main Force Movements: Even if the main force wants to offload, it needs to be completed through a rise and consolidation; subsequently, pay attention to rebound opportunities.

Remarks

• Current range opportunities are limited; operations are primarily quick in-and-out.

• A bullish structure on the 1-hour and below level must be formed before a daily chart rebound.

Daily Market Interpretation - BTC February 27, 2025

Short-term Trend

• Rebound Expectation: BTC has entered the oversold zone after 3 consecutive days of decline over 4 days, and may rebound by $6000-$8000 in the coming days.

• Operational Suggestions:

• For those who did not sell high in the previous medium to long-term spot positions, it is recommended to exit with the rebound.

• For short-term positions, take profit when the opportunity arises and avoid chasing highs.

Key Price Levels

• Short-term Support:

• 85644-84915 (Aggressive trading, quick in and out)

• 79988-78310 (Buying the dip on a sharp decline)

• Short-term Resistance:

• 87560-87868 (After reaching, pull back to 86699 for quick in and out; if there is a volume breakout, consider buying on the pullback)

• Medium-term Resistance:

• 91060-92370 (Watch for short opportunities; actively reduce positions that are trapped from previous highs)

Technical Analysis

• Hourly Level: The current rebound has recovered part of the oversold condition but has not formed a bottom structure.

• Levels above 4 hours: New buying points need to wait for further declines or a breakout on the hourly level.

• Small-level Bullish Conversion: If it maintains sideways movement, it needs about 15 hours to convert into a bullish structure.

Daily Market Interpretation - BTC February 27, 2025

Short-term Trend

• Rebound Expectation: BTC has entered the oversold zone after 3 consecutive days of decline over 4 days, and may rebound by $6000-$8000 in the coming days.

• Operational Suggestions:

• For those who did not sell high in the previous medium to long-term spot positions, it is recommended to exit with the rebound.

• For short-term positions, take profit when the opportunity arises and avoid chasing highs.

Key Price Levels

• Short-term Support:

• 85644-84915 (Aggressive trading, quick in and out)

• 79988-78310 (Buying the dip on a sharp decline)

• Short-term Resistance:

• 87560-87868 (After reaching, pull back to 86699 for quick in and out; if there is a volume breakout, consider buying on the pullback)

• Medium-term Resistance:

• 91060-92370 (Watch for short opportunities; actively reduce positions that are trapped from previous highs)

Technical Analysis

• Hourly Level: The current rebound has recovered part of the oversold condition but has not formed a bottom structure.

• Levels above 4 hours: New buying points need to wait for further declines or a breakout on the hourly level.

• Small-level Bullish Conversion: If it maintains sideways movement, it needs about 15 hours to convert into a bullish structure.

Large pancake long position has rebounded, take profit while it's good. Currently, the profit around 8.77 is still acceptable! The structure here does not support a continuous rise. If you want to hold, set a breakeven. Those with breakeven can do 9.1-9.23.

If it goes down, you can take a stop loss at 85550~84500, stop loss at 83700 (1-hour entity).

btc#比特币价格走势分析 pullback 86550-84500 can make another long position

Daily Market Interpretation — BTC 02/25

1. Short-term Trend Analysis
From the 12-hour to daily structure, the BTC price has shown a clear downward trend. After experiencing three bearish days in a row, a rebound is expected in the next two days. However, if this rebound fails to recover the neckline, one should be cautious of a potential new downward phase, and the market will likely continue to oscillate at low levels.

2. Hourly Level Trend
From the 1-hour to 4-hour trends, BTC has seen a sharp drop after consecutive declines, and the current price is close to long-term support levels. The frequent doji patterns during the hourly decline indicate that most of the short-term downward pressure has been released, and further shorting is not recommended. However, a clear bottoming structure has not yet formed, and under normal fluctuations, the price is unlikely to rise significantly, so it is advisable to wait for a new low before attempting a rebound.

3. Key Support and Resistance

• Short-term support: 86,427-84,777 (focus on quick in-and-out trading).

• Second support: 83,301-81,510 (can consider a rebound during sharp declines).

• Medium to short-term resistance: 90,770-92,859 (do not support breakout buying points).

4. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators
According to the technical analysis on February 25, the overall market sentiment for BTC is bearish, with only 9 out of 20 technical indicators showing bullish signals. The current BTC price is near its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) support level, which is expected to reach $88,960 on March 27. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 44.73, indicating a neutral range, suggesting that the market is currently in a wait-and-see state.

5. Macro Market Trends
After the recent theft incident on Bybit, market sentiment for BTC has been somewhat affected, with upward momentum weakening. Nevertheless, BTC continues to oscillate within the range of $94,000 to $100,000; if it breaks below $94,000, it may further dip to $90,000. However, in the long term, the 200-day and 100-day moving averages for BTC still show some support.

6. Market Outlook

• Short-term: Pay attention to the short-term support between 86,427 and 84,777; consider a rebound during sharp declines, but be aware that the rebound strength may be limited.

• Medium to long-term: If BTC can hold the $94,000 support level, it is likely to continue testing the $100,000 resistance level. If it breaks below $94,000, one should be cautious of further downside risks to $80,000.

The short-term support is 97598~96880 (1:2 quick in and out), the second support is 94666~93086 (the adjustment time will be extended, and the rebound will be exited first), and the previous luck single point remains unchanged.

Daily market interpretation - BTC 02/21

Overall analysis

From the 12-hour to the daily level, BTC remains positive, and the price is close to the previous suppression level of 99,600, but has not yet broken through. Although there has been an increase recently, it has not broken through the previous high. It is recommended to avoid chasing the rise to avoid buying at local highs. There are signs of bottoming out at all levels, but the medium- and short-term structural suppression has not been broken. The general direction of the subsequent market is not bad, and the timing of entry needs to wait for volatility to increase.

Short-term operation suggestions

• Current suppression level: 99,600 (spot profit stop, small stop loss short, keep the first suppression or return to the cost).

• First suppression level: 100204-101052 (the night high point to this area needs to be supplemented with large volume, and you can consider entering the market after 8 hours of sideways trading, with a stop loss of 99480).

• Second suppression level: 102499-103646 (after reaching this area, it is necessary to step back to the first suppression level around 99600, and stop loss is 99480).

Medium- and long-term operation suggestions

Medium- and long-term chips can set a capital protection order and wait for a breakthrough before adjusting the strategy.

Market sentiment and technical analysis

• BTC closed positive at the daily level, the Bollinger Bands closed, and the MACD bullish volume increased, but it is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough of the upper suppression level.

• The 1-hour to 4-hour level shows a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, which is currently rising at the neckline position, but it is necessary to pay attention to risks before breaking through.

Summary

BTC's overall trend tends to fluctuate. It is recommended to operate cautiously before breaking through and wait for clear signals before entering the market.

Tracking the market - BTC

I mentioned earlier that the short-term support of BTC's 1H head and shoulders bottom is 96823. I just received the pin, cancelled the position, set a breakeven order, and bet on a breakthrough in the 98550~99660 area.